This day is a little different than the last three days. The last three days it looked like there were one or two horses that stuck out in the five horse fields. Today it looks like there are five horses that look like they can win in the five horse field.

Race 1      5-4-2

Howie’s Tiz has been hanging around the maiden ranks for a while and has been off for a year and a half, so he’s not a solid 9-5, but he’s newly gelded and is dropping into a maiden claimer from MSW. In this field those are good reasons to consider him. Sir Rockport switches to David Donk and drops from MSW to MCL. Gets first Lasix and a positive jockey switch to Manny Franco. Salem Loop is the third dropper, has recency at OP, and has figures competitive in this field.

Race 2      4-2

It’s a four horse race. That doesn’t mean there are four contenders in the field. It’s literally a four horse race. And I spent way too much time trying to separate the four horses. La Verdad at the top of her form is far and away the best horse in the race. Mamdooha is riding a five race winning streak, so she has plenty of talent.

Race 3      4-6-3

I’m doing this race for the turf so if it goes main track, ignore the picks. Market Outlook is a new gelding and has the best numbers in the field. Orino has been consistently on the turf and is 50% in the money. Peaceful Talk is the speed of the field and with a comfortable pace may run away from this group.

Race 4      2-7-6

Boss Daddy has the best speed in the field but hasn’t been impressive running through the stretch. Tepid choice. Kodiak Kody has been hanging around at the NW2L for a while but he does have consistent figures. Qui C’est Moi broke his maiden for Abby Adsit two back and should be in the ideal tracking position.

Race 5      4-6

I will tell you in advance that other than the MTO I thought the field was close to equal. In terms of percentages, I’d suggest the difference between the top and bottom horse is only a few points. Vision Perfect has not run a bad race and considering he won at first asking should be ready off the layoff. Zandar was right behind Vision Perfect last time out and may be the value horse.

Race 6      4-3

In this race they all look about the same, and not necessarily in a positive way. Overthespeedlimit didn’t raise a gallop last out but prior to that showed decent speed and drops into a much more likely class. Jacapo seems to be close every time and may have the talent to get win number two.

Race 7      3-5-7

Loon River has the best turf numbers, albeit not by much. Cosmic Serenity broke her maiden at first asking, steadied in her next out and actually ran better than looked last out. A little improvement puts her in the mix. Lady Bing ran her best races on the turf and returns there today.

Race 8      5-6-1

Old Upstart drops to $50K today. Didn’t care for the slop last out but ran two strong numbers in his last two starts at AQU. Erik the Red is at the right level today. Has three thirds on the main and is competitive off his best. Giant Fox is another dropping down to a level where he’s had previous success.

Race 9      1A-6-4

Fundamental lost by 2 1/2 lengths after being checked twice in his maiden voyage. Even from the outside he looks like the strongest contender. Having Chad Brown in your corner can’t hurt. Veya is a 12 start maiden that has recently undergone gelding. Perhaps this improves him enough to break the string. Andalusite has shown improvement each start and has the numbers to be competitive here.

I think the card is not very interesting today. There are two eight horse fields and a nine horse field – the average field size today is 7 – and almost all the races the likely winners look like the lowest priced horses. So I’m not going to spend extra time doing a written analysis, but you can be assured that if I did these would be the horses in each race I would write about. Here are my selections.

Race 1      5-3-1

Race 2      6-4-2

Race 3      4-5

Race 4      4-5-7

Race 5      3-4-7

Race 6      2-7-3

Race 7      1-5-2

Race 8      4-7-8

The difference between horseracing and life is that in horseracing you pay your taxes every day you play. It’s called the take. Then if you win, you pay again. What a game.

For those not familiar with my selection style, I’m looking to identify the three horses most likely to WIN a race. That means sometimes I’m going to ignore the horse that has a high probability of finishing in the money but a low probability of winning. (Yesterday that was 6 Hushhushmushmush in the 9th race. He wasn’t one of my top three selections because I did not believe he could win the race. He finished second.)

That also means if you are a vertical bettor (trifectas and superfectas) you may have to dig deeper than the three picks I give out here. I also put the picks in order of their likeliness to win. The top pick, in my mind, has the highest probability of winning. However, one thing to remember about sites that give you three horses to focus on, in some races the top selction is going to be much more likely than the other selections. In other races, the top three selections are more interchangeable. I’m sure you realize, not all top choices are created equal, nor are third choices. For example, my top three may be 28% (5-2), 25% (3-1) and 22% (7-2), or they may be 50% (even money), 17% (5-1) and 13% (7-1). Two very different races. I’m looking at how to improve the web site to reflect that thinking.

I’ve written about betting overlays, and I believe the value bettors will look at the three choices and determine if any of the three is an overlay. Let me note some examples from yesterday at Aqueduct. In the second race my selections were 2-3-6. The 2 went off at 1.30-1, the 3 at 5.70-1 and the 6 at 0.85-1. In this race, for me, the 3 was an overlay, the 2 and the 6 not even close. It is difficult for a lot of players to consider betting the 3 because they have been conditioned to be selection oriented rather than value oriented, but the only real value win bet in this race was the 3, and perhaps exactas with the 2 and 6 on top of the 3. The 3 won the race and paid $13.40. In the fourth race the selections were 1-4-5. The 1 went off at 0.50-1, the 4 went off at 9.90-1, and the 5 went off at 10.70-1. Both the 4 and 5 were overlays, so the play was to make a nice sized win bet on the 4 and a smaller win bet on the 5. The 4 won and paid $21.80. In those two races, a value player would make a healthy profit. I’ve written about how I set an odds line to determine value (http://halveyonhorseracing.com/?p=147). How you get there is less important than the fact you get there. I’ve also given you a blueprint for betting exactas, Risk Intelligence, including a table that shows you when a combination is a value bet and you can find that here (http://halveyonhorseracing.com/?p=149). DON’T BE SELCTION ORIENTED; BE VALUE ORIENTED. And remember, just because a horse is high odds doesn’t mean it is a good bet – it has to be an overlay and it has to be value.

Race 1      1-5-3

Patria Querida was claimed for $32K in February, ran twice at $40K and finished fourth both times, drops down today in search of the win. Has been over the surface and has a competitive figure. Song Brook broke her maiden at first asking for $25K and did it in a good time on a muddy track. Jumped way up second time out, took the lead and was eased. Has come back with a nice work and would be no surprise to win. Gabby’s Brown waited until her seventh start to break her maiden and this is her first try with winners. Has a competitive number and the currently hot Angel Cruz riding.

Race 2      3-2-4

Piquant broke from the far outside in the Peeping Tom, found his way through the field and won going away.Richard Stoklosa has done very well with limited starters. Extrasexyhippzster was keeping Graded company last year but has proven much more suited for the OC and lower allowance ranks. Still, in this field he is not without chances – his last race at Laurel was a very impressive time.  So Brilliant was off a year and a half before returning in an OC at LRL. He’s obviously a horse with physical issues but if he is healthy and ready to go he is competitive with this group.

Race 3      5-4-7

Street Prince looks like the dominant speed/finish combination here, but has been struggling to break his maiden. Makes a major drop in search of the win. The tepid choice.  Larry Boy is only making his fourth start and seems better suited for the sprint distance. No surprise if he wins. Feverish Loot is the interesting horse. He showed decent speed on the turf and synthetic, but hasn’t shown any heart in the stretch. Was claimed last out by Randi Persaud and as bad as Persaud’s record looks, he’s already won a race on the main this meet and is 12% first off the claim. In this field that may be good enough.

Race 4      6-4-5

Wonderish has been competitive at this level and of the horses that have started looks to have the best number. Filly Idol moves to the Carlos Martin barn and adds blinkers for this trip. Switches to the hot apprentice Cruz and has a good gate work in prep for this one. Good chances. Susan Elaine ran decently first time on the AQU main and Contessa is fair with 2nd timers in his barn.

Race 5      1-2-5

Annie Walker beat $25K NW2 last out, jumps a step to open $25K but given this is statebreds it’s not a real jump in class.Two in a row looks definitely doable. Bella the Bandit returned after nine months on the shelf to comfortably beat $16K NW3 claimers. Figures say she fits with this group and if she doesn’t bounce off the first out effort she’s got the right to win here. Elmra has the best early foot in the race and improved substantially when dropped to this level. Another looking to string a couple together.

Race 6      5-2-4

Beatle Boots ran a good one on the AQU main in her first start, returned in the slop and didn’t do much. Was claimed by Abby Adsit out of that race and and she’s been fair first off the claim. Couple of nice works since moving to the Adsit barn. Looks live and may be at a price. Moonlight Party drops to $30K and moves to the AQU main for this start. In a five race career she hasn’t been on the same surface twice but has the speed to be a factor here. Thomas Knight is the other Contessa starter and has figures good enough to be competitive here.

Race 7      4-2-5

D’princess goes for RuRod after being off 9 months. She’s raced well off shorter layoffs and RuRod is 26% off the long vacation. By far the best early speed and off her best dominates this field. Nuffsaid Nuffsaid is another coming off the winter rest and Michelle Nevin is about the equal of RuRod on the layoff. Consistently good numbers when she is in condition. Verismilitude doesn’t have quite the early lick of the 4, but figures legitimately at this class.

Race 8      10-6-5 (14)

Lotza Heat has the best figure on the turf as well as having the most experience on the turf. Making his seventh start, a little bit of a negative, but this is not a first rate field he has to beat. Starago takes the shades off for DiPrima, although he only wore them in his last start. He looks to be improving, and will have to be at his best to lick this field. April Color drops from the MSW ranks for Pletcher and he is 29% with that move. Is decently bred for the turf and may turn out to be the value horse. While I don’t normally offer a fourth horse, Send It In drew in off the AE list and he intrigues me. He has better turf breding than a lot of the field and has Todd Pletcher in his corner. He has one race under his belt and it was better than looked. He had a slightly troubled beginning and ran fairly evenly, actually passing horses in the stretch. Should be odds and I wouldn’t ignore him in the verticals or horizontals.

Sometimes I feel like the Grinch watching all the Who’s down in Whoville incessantly happy and dancing when it comes to the Kentucky Derby. Oh, the Derby is a good thing on balance for horseracing. People who could care less about horseracing the other 364 days of the year will faithfully spend time watching, and maybe even betting, the so-called “most exciting two minutes in sports.” But it also the most overrated two minutes in racing. It’s a race for three year olds, and not necessarily even the best of the three year old crop. Trust me – if you think that is heresy, it is only because you have been programmed from birth by endless newspaper articles and over the top TV ads to see the Derby as America’s premier racing experience. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Think about the 2014 Derby. The only horse of the top ten Derby finishers that was in the BC Classic at the end of the season was California Chrome. Bayern, Toast of New York and Shared Belief were non factors in May, but they have all finished ahead of Chrome since the Derby. What does that tell you?

I’ve often used the analogy of high school. Three year old race horses in May are the equivalent of high school juniors and seniors. Remember how there was one guy who was already having to shave every day? A girl that could have passed for twentysomething? Same with thoroughbreds. Some of them are physically ahead of the others, but just like with high school eventually everybody catches up. That’s why they run the Breeders Cup in November.

So what is the relevance of all this? The hype associated with the Derby causes it to be weighted too heavily when assessing which horse should be the champion. But as I said above, on balance the Derby is a good thing for racing.

This week the Derby picture started to come into better focus, and unlike some years, about half of the top flight three year olds made it all the way to the Derby. Far From Over, Texas Red, Ami’s Flatter, Daredevil, Tiz Shea D, and Prospect Park are all off the Derby trail, but the presence of the top four more than makes this Derby interesting. Here is my take at this point in no particular order.

AMERICAN PHARAOH dominated the preps in Arkansas, and despite Bob Baffert’s highest endorsement, there are some negatives.  His breeding doesn’t suggest a mile and a quarter is comfortable. He’s lightly raced, and really hasn’t been tested by a quality field yet. He isn’t likely to be able to just sit and watch the cheaper speed like he did in the Arkansas Derby, and anxious front runners have to be superior to hold in the Derby. ESPECIALLY when he has a stablemate that might be lapping on his side. I’m really on the fence about this horse – on the track races say the likely favorite deserves the accolades, but everything else says the last eighth of a mile will be beyond his ability.   At the moment I’m leaning against AP as the winner, although not as part of the exotics.

CARPE DIEM is another with some ambiguity. He won the Bluegrass in strong fashion, but again didn’t beat any quality challengers. Being a Giant’s Causeway should give him plenty of stamina, but Unbridled Song runners have not had great success in the Derby. Still, on balance, he’s a contender for me.

DORTMUND, like the others, has dominated his weaker competition in California. He’s by a Kentucky Derby winner, so shouldn’t have an issue with the distance, but like the two horses above, he has a close Storm Cat influence, and incredibly Storm Cats have done poorly in the Derby. I said in my last look I’d like t see him make a move from off the pace, and he didn’t. Given the presence of another speed horse (American Pharaoh) you’d have to think his chances are compromised. Still, that SA Derby looked legitimate and the horse is very talented. Previous Derbies have shown that the Baffert horse to watch is usually the one he touts the least, which just may be Dortmund.

UPSTART had not really captured my imagination but now that he’s come down with a fever and missed a breeze, I have a fairly strong inclination to simply drop the horse from contention. I know Violette is giving the “don’t worry if it is just a sinus thing” message, but I think the margins for getting a horse ready are razor thin. Right now he’s a pass for me.

FROSTED is my longshot Derby horse. I really liked the race he ran in the Wood, which may have had the strongest field of any of the preps. He was wide on both turns and closed into a slow pace, and while Tencendour ran the race of his life, Frosted really looked like he was going to run by him the whole stretch. I’m thinking back to the Fountain of Youth where Larry Collmus was all but conceding the race to him at the top of the stretch when he thew the anchor out. McLaughlin made a slew of changes, including a throat procedure, some fast workouts where he had to extend himself to pass horses and a jockey change. Let’s assume that Frosted had won the FOY and then the Wood. Would he be higher than 15th on the Top 10 list? I like that Frosted actually has a point in the last two dosage categories (signifying stamina) and I like that he didn’t leave his best race on the track in one of the preps. I think the Wood is the surprise Derby prep and unless Frosted shows complete dislike for the Churchill Downs surface, he’s where I’m currently leaning.

EL KABEIR was lazy in the Wood but made a reasonable close into the slow pace. I don’t think he’s a likely winner based on all the breeding indicators, but I like his in the money potential.

MUBTAAHIJ is getting a lot of press that goes something like this – no UAE Derby winner has done much when he comes to Kentucky, but THIS one looks like a real threat. One of the strategies we’ll employ is to look at all the deep closers and put them in the back holes, and on that count Mubtaahij qualifies. I’ll just say that despite the tendency for the tri and super to be filled out with deep closers and plodders, the winner has a a turn of speed that it can use when it needs to. I’m giving the pitch-any-UAE-horse side more weight in the Derby and not considering Mubtaahij in the win slot.

I think the winner comes out of the list above, and between American Pharaoh, Dortmund, and Carpe Diem you’ll be lucky to get 5-1. On the other hand, Frosted is at 15-1 on the early lines and I’m not hearing a lot of buzz about the horse. But he has the right breeding and he looks like he’s coming to the race at the top of his condition. If you’re looking for a tri/super strategy, find the deep closers and maybe assume some of the top flight horses can hang on for a piece.

I’ll do one more right before the Derby after we’ve had a chance to look at the workouts.

For those not familiar with my selection style, I’m looking to identify the three horses most likely to WIN a race. That means sometimes I’m going to ignore the horse that has a high probability of finishing in the money but a low probability of winning. That also means if you are a vertical bettor (trifectas and superfectas) you may have to dig deeper than the three picks I give out here. I also put the picks in order of their likeliness to win. The top pick, in my mind, has the highest probability of winning. However, one thing to remember about sites that give you three horses to focus on, in some races the top selction is going to be much more likely than the other selections. In other races, the top three selections are more interchangeable. I’m sure you realize, not all top choices are created equal, nor are third choices. I’m looking at how to improve the web site to reflect that thinking. I’ve written about betting overlays, and I believe the value bettors will look at the three choices and determine if any of the three is an overlay. Let me note two examples from yesterday at Aqueduct. In the second race my selections were 2-3-5. The 2 went off at 1.0-1, the 3 at 10.40-1 and the 5 at 4.20-1. In this race, for me, the 3 was a major overlay, the 2 was not even close for me. The 5 was about even with my line, so not really a bet. It is difficult for a lot of players to consider betting the 3 because they have been conditioned to be selection oriented rather than value oriented, but the only real value win bet in this race was the 3, and perhaps exactas with the 2 and 5 on top of the 3. The 3 won the race and paid $22.80. In the seventh race at AQU the picks were 5-9-3. The 5 went off at 7.80-1. The 9 went off at 4.60-1 and the 3 went off at 2.85-1. In my mind, the 5 was a major overlay but the 9 was also an overlay. The 3 was a definite underlay. What to do? A win bet on the 5 and a win bet of half the amount on the 9 AND an exacta box with 5 and 9. It came 9-5 with the exacta paying $94.50. In those two races, a value player would make a healthy profit. I’ve written about how I set an odds line to determine value (http://halveyonhorseracing.com/?p=147). How you get there is less important than the fact you get there. I’ve also given you a blueprint for betting exactas, Risk Intelligence, including a table that shows you when a combination is a value bet and you can find that here (http://halveyonhorseracing.com/?p=149). DON’T BE SELCTION ORIENTED; BE VALUE ORIENTED. And remember, just because a horse is high odds doesn’t mean it is a good bet – it has to be an overlay and it has to be value.

Race 1      4-6-1

This race has the look of a potential speed battle between Percussion and Goodtolook. They are both very fast and if they duel at less than a killing pace they could both survive to the wire. Still, I’m banking on Oltre’ Oro to run past them both. This is a total pace race.

Race 2      6-4-1

Elusive Talmo ran a good one on the inner in the mud a month ago. He figures to be winging to the front and with slight improvement he figures strong in this race. He hasn’t been the mile, but breeding says it shouldn’t be an issue.  Sebonack puts the blinkers on for Pletcher and gets an interesting switch to Saez. He has run the mile but it was an ambiguous race. Still, in this field he has good ous. Greg’s Fourwheeler searches for victory in his eighth start. He’s run the distance but it’s hard to figure any improvement. Still off his best he has to be given a chance.

Race 3      2-6-4

Subtle Humor is one of the two Jacobson runners in a field almost devoid of speed. She has two wins in six starts and while she tried better with no success she’s at the correct level today and figures on top. The othr Jacobson runner, Ridingwiththedevil, has been competitive in most of her races and should be in the battle fo the lead. Has raced with far better in the recent past and has every reason to be battling to the wire. Kleptocrat is 5 of 9 in the money and looks to be the best of the rest.

Race 4      8-3-1

She’s All Even showed good speed in her maiden debut and was close when dropped to this level last December. Has the speed and is well bred for the distance. Not About The Nail has broken poorly in both of her starts and Rodriguez adds the blinkers today in an effort to focus her. With an improved break she’s a contender. Offlee Good has been off since last July and only has one turf sprint on her record. In that race she showed good early foot. Some steady works for the return. At 15-1 ML she’s worth a thought.

Race 5      6-1

Myfourchix drops back to the sprint distance after trying state-bred stakes runners last October. Good workout pattern for the return. Should get the trip. Evrybdymstgetstonz is one that seems to need the lead and should gun from the rail. Whether she hangs on is the question but the scratch of the 2 is a big help.

Race 6      4-1-6

Bow Tie Boss returns to the races after a seventh month layoff. His two year old number tops anything in this field and Jerkens is good off the layoff. The workout pattern looks positive. High I.Q. Pete shows a couple of smart races this year. He has good speed and should be in better condition. Will be the danger to the 4. Knuckle Curve comes from Santa Anita for new trainer Michelle Nevin. His first race he had no chance after the break.  Nevin is 29% first time with a horse.

Race 7      2-3-1A

Possilicious came to life in the mud last out, losing to Gypsum Johnny, a winner yesterday. Claimed by Jacobson and jumped slightly in price, but he fits on figures and speed. Get Creative goes first time for RuRod and looks like he may be the controlling speed. Bad break last out compromised his chances and a better break makes him a major player. Remaining half of Contessa entry doesn’t look quite as inspiring as the top two but I like the angle when the trainer scratches what looks like the stronger part of the entry.  Worth a look.

Race 8      4-5-3

Kate is a Ten is always comptetitive but does have trouble getting to the wire first. Big race last out but had the unfortunate time of running into a dominant Sherifa. Scratch of the 2 seriously elevated her chances. Lutheran Miss is riding a three race winning steak and hasn’t been worse than 2nd since August. Prairie Stone has been better than looked lately. 1 for 1 on the main and 1 for 1 at the distance.

Race 9      8-2-6

Summit County has the best last race figure and drops slightly in price in search of the victory. North Ocean is the speed of the race and his chances went up with the scratch of the 4. Moonluck is 9 of 11 lifetime in the money and should get first jump on the frontrunners. May fit best in this field.

For those not familiar with my selection style, I’m looking to identify the three horses most likely to WIN a race. That means sometimes I’m going to ignore the horse that has a high probability of finishing in the money but a low probability of winning. That also means if you are a vertical bettor (trifectas and superfectas) you may have to dig deeper than the three picks I give out here. I also put the picks in order of their likeliness to win. The top pick, in my mind, has the highest probability of winning. However, one thing to remember about sites that give you three horses to focus on, in some races the top selction is going to be much more likely than the other selections. In other races, the top three selections are more interchangeable. I’m sure you realize, not all top choices are created equal, nor are third choices. I’m looking at how to improve the web site to reflect that thinking. I’ve written about betting overlays, and I believe the value bettors will look at the three choices and determine if any of the three is an overlay. Let me note two examples from yesterday at Aqueduct. In the sixth race my selections were 9-8-10. The 9 went off at 0.60-1, the 8 at 4.20-1 and the 10 at 6.60-1. In this race, for me, the 10 was an overlay, the 9 was not even close for me. The 8 was about even with my line, so not really a bet. It is difficult for a lot of players to consider betting the 10 because they have been conditioned to be selection oriented rather than value oriented, but the only real value win bet in this race was the 10, and perhaps exactas with the 8 and 9 on top of the 10. The 10 won the race and paid $15.20. In the third race at AQU the picks were 2-3-5. The 2 was far dominant in this race and went off at 1.95-1. The 3 went off at 1.95-1 and the 5 went off at 2.05-1. In my mind, the 2 was approaching overlay. The 5 was an underlay and the 3 was a definite underlay. In this race the value bet was a big exacta with the 2 on top of the 3, and maybe a smaller exacta with the 2 on top of 5. The 2 won easily as expected, the 5 easily beat the 3 for the place, keying a $20.80 exacta, an excellent payoff for two horses at about 2-1. In those two races, a value player had a good chance to make a healthy profit. I’ve written about how I set an odds line to determine value (http://halveyonhorseracing.com/?p=147). How you get there is less important than the fact you get there. I’ve also given you a blueprint for betting exactas, Risk Intelligence, including a table that shows you when a combination is a value bet and you can find that here (http://halveyonhorseracing.com/?p=149). DON’T BE SELCTION ORIENTED; BE VALUE ORIENTED. And remember, just because a horse is high odds doesn’t mean it is a good bet – it has to be an overlay and it has to be value.

If you have something else to do, the first three races at AQU might be a good time to do it. They are simply a bad set of races.

Race 1      2-4

John Silver was off a year, came back and did nothing first time but ran a good one last out. Back in shape and he is a major contender. Blue Chips Only drops a bit in price and gets an upgrade to Jose Ortiz.

Race2      2-3-5

Van Frassen is fastest off his second last and has been with better recently. Will be low odds and looks deserving. Everydoghashisday is making his 40th start still in search of his third win.  The field is bad enough that he has a real shot. Can’t Catch Me Now has one less start than the 3 and is also looking for win number three. Has some good early foot and may get the jump on these.

Race 3      1-2-4

Luckysdream may be overrated at 4/5 ML but that tells you the quality of the field. Superior early speed and if he runs back to some of his earlier races the ML will be justified. Shot to Win is dropping off a win and has been running consistent figures. Southbeachsandy drops down today in search of a win. More of an in the money type but this is not a powerful field.

Race 4      4-5-2

Performance Bonus is a good-looking Chad Brown trainee with the best lifetime figure in the field. Should much prefer the one turn mile. Bown has high numbers in most categories and the jockey/trainer combination is very strong. Good Pick Nick has been knocking in his last two and should appreciate the distance. Expensive yearling purchase has to be the danger. Tiz for Daddy obviously needed the race. He didn’t have a great finish but certainly is bred well for the distance.

Race 5      5-1-3

Huge Asset has a good turn of early foot but didn’t care much for the AQU slop. Fits well with state-breds at this level. Repent Twice normally has a good pressing style but last out missed the break and closed well to run second. Should revert back to the winning style and is a major contender. Groupthink is the ML favorite but he has had seven chances to get his second win and I’m not sure why today should be the day.

Race 6      9-1-2

Bug Juice should do better in the state-bred ranks. He has a 33% lifetime win recond and owns a win over the main. Ground Force has had good success at seven furlongs. Jason Servis grabbed the horse for $20K and jumped him over his head, drops him back to a more reasonable level. Lots of positives. Royal Posse doesn’t have a great record at AQU but fits the condition well and has a series of good figures leading up to this race.

Race 7      5-9-3

Pete’s Fleet is the price horse selection of the day. He was 10 for 14 in the money last year has a win on the main and is good at the distance. Off his 2014 races he figures the fastest. Gypsum Johnny was claimed last out by Contessa who is not spectacular first off the claim. Has the best last out figure and is looking for three in a row. Swell had some big numbers in 2014. Has been off seven months for low-profile connections but somehow attracts the services of Irad and gets posted as the ML favorite. Have to respect the combination of factors.

Race 8      8-2-4

Before You Know It wired a short field in dominant fashion last out on the inner. Before that was a  major player at LRL. Has consistently good speed figures, a 19% trainer and retains Franco. House Rules won the G3 Rampart two months ago at GP and finished second after a troubled start in the G2 Royal Delta. In top shape and a major player in this one. Joint Return has been spending time in the graded ranks – her last two losses were to Untapable and Stopchargingmaria. Has been off since last September but Servis is 25% off the long rest. Rarely runs a bad race and if she is in shape she is a danger.

Race 9      8-1-5

Ticky Zippy has the top figures and will make it over the top sooner or later. Marc the Sky ran her best race on the AQU main last November and figures to improve with the return to that surface. Has a couple of decent works over the BEL training track. Livi On Love was a match for Tricky Zippy last out but ran well first out. Prospects at 15-1.

For those not familiar with my selection style, I’m looking to identify the three horses most likely to WIN a race. That means sometimes I’m going to ignore the horse that has a high probability of finishing in the money but a low probability of winning. That also means if you are a vertical bettor ( tifectas and superfectas) you may have to dig deeper than the three picks I give out here. I also put the picks in order of their likeliness to win. The top pick, in my mind, has the highest probability of winning. However, one thing to remember about sites that give you three horses to focus on, in some races the top selction is going to be much more likely than the other selections. In other races, the top three selections are more interchangeable.  I’m sure you realize, not all top choices are created equal, nor are third choices. I’m looking at how to improve the web site to reflect that thinking. I’ve written about betting overlays, and I believe the value bettors will look at the three choices and determine if any of the three is an overlay. Let me note two examples from yesterday at Aqueduct. In the second race my selections were 4-6-3. The 4 went off at 1.45-1, the 6 at 1.55-1 and the 3 at 8.70-1. In this race, for me,  the 3 was an overlay, the 4 and 6 were not even close for me. It is difficult for a lot of players to consider betting the three because they have been conditioned to be selection oriented rather than value oriented, but the only value win bet in this race was the 3, and perhaps exactas with the 4 and 6 on top of the 3. The 3 won the race and paid $19.40. In the third race at AQU the picks were 4-2-5. The 4 was far dominant in this race and went off at 0.90-1. The 2 went off at 9.40-1 and the 5 went off at 3-1. In my mind, the 4 was not an overlay; in fact, the tote board odds accurately represented the gelding’s chance of winning, close to 60%.  The 5 was an underlay and the 2, while attractive, was barely an overlay. In this race the value bet was a big exacta with the 4 on top of the 2, and maybe a smaller exacta with the 4 on top of 5. The 4 won easily as expected, the 5 barely nudged the 2 for the place, keying a $12.60 exacta. In those two races, a value player had a good chance to make a healthy profit. I’ve written about how I set an odds line to determine value (http://halveyonhorseracing.com/?p=147). How you get there is less important than the fact you get there. DON’T BE SELCTION ORIENTED; BE VALUE ORIENTED. And remember, just because a horse is high odds doesn’t mean it is a good bet – it has to be an overlay and it has to be value.

Race 1      2-3

Suckitupbuster is the best speed in the race but can be faint hearted in the stretch. Still, his best race was at this price and the return to $40K should make him the one to beat. Black Tide drops out of the MSW ranks and back to the sprint distance. He looks to be the main danger.

Race 2      2-3-5

Silver Silence has won on the main and is 2 of 4 at the distance. His best figures are at the mile and the slight drop in price should be in his favor. Supsa has struggled to find the winners circle in 2015 but has been competitive. Certainly has the figures to break through here. Maxana has competitive numbers but it is concerning that she is 0 for 10 on the main and 1 for 12 at the distance. In a poor field her chances come up.

Race 3      1-5

Global Positioning and Damage Control are a powerful entry and either one might vie for favoritism in this group. Damage Control is probably the stronger of the duo. Persuasive Devil is not that far behind the entry and would be no surprise in the winners circle. Has a tendency to finish second, so this might be a cold exacta.

Race 4      4-2-7

The cutely named Marriage Fever (by Stormin Fever out of Betrothed) did nothing on a sloppy Laurel track last out but prior to that was tough with this level. Should have no trouble with the 1 1/8 miles and has superior numbers in his route attempts. Real Estate Rich was claimed by Contessa for $16K three back. Is 1 for 2 on the main and also figures to have no problem with the distance.  Fits much better in this group. Springcourt is 2 for 6 on the main and two places in three tries at the distance. He’s been a little more likely to finish in the money but he does have a 15% winning percentage and is better than 50% in the money. Was a close second in his last despite being wide into the stretch.

Race 5      4-7-8

Possessed just snuck under the wire first breaking his maiden and returned in a minor stake where he didn’t disgrace himself. Should like the seven furlong trip and he’s at a better class level today. Lots of other speed to compete with though. Imposing Figure is not likely to like up to his name here, but he looks placed right today. Nice consistent figures, and he has been showing some improvement all along. Street Gent has been successful on the main and switches trainers to the young and improving Raymond Handal. Looks like the best of the front runners.

Race 6      9-8-10

Coming Attraction just missed first out at GP and McGaughey brings him here to break his maiden. Unless one of the firsters is a monster he should be the winner. Bear It goes first time for Clement. I like the workout pattern and should do well with Alvarado up. Yes For Success is the other starter that has shown ability and with improvement could be part of the mix.

Race 7      5-4-3

This is a really tough race, and frankly there isn’t a horse entered that would be a big surprise. I’ll go with Wavell Avenue. She’s 1 for 2 at the distance and 1 for 1 on the main and her figures are enough to give her the nod. Misszippityslewda has the best back figures in the field and figures improvement on the main track. Jacobson has been hot at the current meet. Previous is the strong ML favorite despite jumping up the OC 62K level. Has good figures and wouldn’t be a surprise here.

Race 8      2-5-8

Dance for Joe is in at a price. She’s been consistent and although her only good race was in the slop, she looks to have potential in this field. Lexsoya actually has the best last race figure and looked dangerous until she was impeded in her last. Can’t discount in the win slot. Miss Bellamy has plenty of speed but hasn’t been the distance. Still, she’s bred well enough for the distance and Englehart is cecent with tht move. Can’t discount.

It doesn’t look like a great value day to me. A lot of the favorites look strong. We’ll see how it unfolds.

Race 1      2-5-1

Imposseble Dream drops in out of a state-bred $25K. She didn’t break well but did run evenly around the track. Given only one start she’s eligible to improve. Alice and Trixie should be the speed here. The 11 starts are a concern but this isn’t much of a field. Mama’s Red Hat is another flirting with professional maiden status. In this field she has the figures to be a factor.

Race 2      4-6-3

Zippity Zoom drops down to her lowest level since breaking her maiden, This looks like a field she can handle. All Luv Me has the best figures but 17 starts prior to today. Based on recency she’s in the mix but shaky in the win slot. Delightful Erin is the likely pacesetter and she has enough speed to be a factor with this group.

Race 3      4-2-5

Watergate wired a field to break his maiden and came back well over his head. In a much more sensible spot today. Franco stays for the ride. Jacapo has been knocking at the door since he broke his maiden. The blinkers helped last time and Cornelio should help this time. Face broke his maiden in impressive fashion in February and returns at a slightly higher price. Gullo has been hot in 2015 and is good off the short layoff. With improvement he’s a majo danger.

Race 4      1-6-3

Rapid Repair ran well first off an eight month layoff and Mott is lights out second off the layoff. Very solid hee. Majestic Empire has had two troubled start and last out ran into a couple of tough runners. Has some early foot and competitive figures. March On has seen nothing but the turf and is not particularly well bred for the dirt. Still, he has some competitive figures and if he grabs hold could be a factor.

Race 5      3-1-4

Guyana drops low in search of  win. She was strong in 2014, but in her last she stopped dead. Has been working regularly if not spectacularly. Off her best she’s the fastest here, but still some concerns. Wise Awake was a monster at FL but didn’t take well to the inner. A return to last year’s form makes her one of the dangers. Colonel Juanita has been claimed her last fou outs and is with with Gullo. He drops her to well below the claim price in search of a quick win. Only question is the distance.

Race 6      9-6-5

Salisbury Knight has had some success on the main and can negotiate the distance. Jacobson wheels him back in 7 days and has had good success with that move. Best Man comes up from GP into a much easier spot for Jimmy Jerkens. He is the best speed and off his best figures he looms a major threat. Mental Iceberg won at the $35K level on the main last November and has a good closing kick. Eligible to pick up a piece.

Race 7      2-6-5

Saluda is looking for two in a row after winning in the mud last out. Has consistent figures and fits well in this group. She’s Marvy drops for Steve Klesaris after being off three months. Has a win on the main, figures at the six furlong distance and is at the right price. Patria Querida had a troubled start last out so toss that race. Going second off the claim for Diane Balsamo who is average with that move. Off her best she’s competitive.

Race 8      4-6-8

Ride of Your Life ran big first off a nine month layoff and comes back at the same class and distance. Mott is excellent second of the layoff. Rally for McNally ran well at 5 1/2 in the mud and moves up in distance today. Big improvement with the addition of blinkers last time. Should handle the step up in distance. Worbother is another with front running ability and a good race last out. Englehart is well above average off the short layoff.