Belmont April 30

Seemed like it was better to come from off the pace  Saturday. The track seemed to have some give in it. We’ll see if it tightens up Sunday.

Race 1

  • 1  Rally Cry
  • 6  Testosterstone
  • 5  Adulator
  • Secondary (4)
  • The favorites may turn out to be too strong. There is a lot speed here, and Diversify may be the fastest of them all. But I’m leaning toward Rally Cry. He made an impressive 2017 debut, and I believe he has improved from 3 to 4 and should run better today. Testosterstone has been in good form and comes off a win in the Mr. Sinatra. He seems to represent the value.

Race 2

  • 5  Pimm’s Cup
  • 7  Mission Trip
  • 8  Steady Heat
  • Secondary (4)
  • This is a competitive race. I’m taking a chance on a horse that should be a longshot but is listed at 4-1 on the ML, Pimm’s Cup.  I think his odds will go up by post time. He came out last year at Saratoga and had no chance after breaking poorly. He drops into a MCL today and it looks like McPeek has been seeking a spot for him. He’s been gelded since last year and picks up first Lasix today. Mission Trip has run two good races at the level and should  go favorite today. Steady Heat improved in the drop from MSW to MCL and figures to be part of the picture today.

Race 3

  • 4  Big Handsome
  • 5  Delphina
  • 2  Undulated
  • Secondary (3)
  • Big Handsome should have no trouble stepping up to the ALW level or running at the six furlongs. Any improvement puts her well on top. Delphina was overmatched in the Bourbon Oaks, but prior to that demolished a field at TP. Looks strong today. Undulated should enjoy the return to 6F. She’s a stakes winner in Canada and just missed in a Futurity at Laurel as a 2YO.

Race 4

  • 9  Magsamelia
  • 3  Reckless Humor
  • 6  Summer House
  • No real insight here. The favorites look tough and the others will have to show something more than what seems to be available in the past performances.

Race 5

  • 3  Wage Acceleration
  • 5  Polar City
  • 6  Peace Speaker
  • 1A  Army Mule
  • This is one of those MSW’s for lightly raced three year olds. Wage Acceleration ran well first time out for Chad Brown and has been working regularly for his return. Polar City goes first time for Mark Casse. He has a series of nice workouts for his debut. Should show some speed today. Peace Speaker had a nice debut at GP for Kieran McLaughlin and should improve with that start under his belt. Army Mule is the offering from the still potent combination of Pletcher/Velasquez. Good workout pattern and good breeding for the distance.

Race 6

  • 11  Tiz a Chance
  • 7  Aragonite
  • 3  West Hills Giant
  • Secondary (4, 6)
  • While I’m a little hesitant to go all the way to the outside, Tiz a Chance should enjoy his return to BEL and while the 6F might be a little short for him, I like the running style and his recent figures. Aragonite has been off a while but has run well fresh before. He should enjoy the return to the turf. West Hills Giant scratched to run in this spot. He’s had a lot of trouble finding the winner’s circle, but is regularly in the money.  Both Grand Sky and Irish Prayer can’t be disregarded.

Race 7

  • 10  Mama Joyce
  • 2  Littlemissbusiness
  • 1  Maria Got Even
  • Secondary (4)
  • Mama Joyce ran well in the Karakorum Elektra stakes after returning to the Gary Contessa barn. Lightly raced filly is a win type , fits the conditions and should be in a good position turning for home. Littlemissbusiness should enjoy the return to BEL. Drop in price should help today. Maria Got Even won at a claiming price just below this level at today’s distance and she was respectable when she jumped up to  the OC$62,500 level. She’s got big outs today.

Race  8

  • 3  Hip Hop N Jazz
  • 5  Fair Point
  • 1  Miss Ella
  • Secondary (6)
  • Hip Hop N Jazz hasn’t been out of the money in her eight race career and seems to have taken a liking to the turf.  This should be her sternest test but her turf numbers put her right in the mix. Fair Point makes her 2017 debut after finishing last year with a win and a very close second in a pair of Grade 3’s. Has the lifetime best figures in this field. Miss Ella also makes her 2017 debut and left 2016 with a very close second to Fair Point. Definitely an interesting race.

Race 9

  • 1  Homewood Point
  • 12  Harlan’s Hunch
  • 10  Britain
  • Secondary (6, 9)

Belmont April 29

Opening day at Belmont was  a fairly formful day, with one glaring exception. The track also played relatively normal. Tough card again today.

Race 1

  • 6  Z Town
  • 1  Killybegs Captain
  • 4 Dhamaan
  • Z Town is the primary speed in this race and that puts him on top. Killybegs Captain made a big improvement when moved back to the dirt and should be in a good striking position coming into the stretch. Dhamaan looks like the horse most likely to pick up the pieces if the speed breaks down.

Race 2

  • 8  New York’s Finest
  • 5  Astrologist
  • 7  Freud’s Friend
  • Secondary (1, 2, 4)
  • I went back and forth on this race before settling on New York’s Finest. He made a nice run in breaking his maiden in a turf sprint at SAR, and one of my favorite angles is horses that had two year old figures close to the three year old figures of other runners. Linda Rice is better than average off the layoff and in turf sprints. Astrologist had all sorts of trouble in his 2017 debut, but still managed to run a new top. If he continues to improve he’s a contender. Freud’s Finest seems more suited to the turf and he should improve from 2016.

Race 3

  • 1  Tiz Long Gone
  • 6  Tug of War
  • 4  Non Stop
  • Secondary (3, 5)
  • Tiz Long Gone has clearly been over his head in stakes races, but based on the success he had prior to that he should stand above this group. Perhaps the drop can be seen as negative, but it’s hard to discount him here. Tug of War is a veteran campaigner now conditioned by Rudy Rodriguez. He’s been a reliable runner and his last race says he is still a competitor.  Non Stop is another veteran campaigner who could have a say in the outcome off his best race.

Race 4

  • 6  Wanztbwicked
  • 3  Storm Team
  • 4  Shidoshi
  • Secondary (7, 9)

Race 5

  • 4  River Date
  • 2  Hard Study
  • 6  Admiral Blue
  • Secondary (3)
  • River Date should be the speed of the speed and has been in good condition. Shows an affinity for BEL. Hard Study has been a consistent runner. The Pletcher/Velasquez combo usually indicates a serious intent. Admiral Blue has competitive with better and fits well in this group.

Race 6

  • 6  Tricked Up
  • 8  Snap Decision
  • 7  Flying Bullet
  • Secondary (1)
  • Tricked Up goes for Chad Brown who is always dangerous with his turf runners. Brown is actually very good with first time blinkers. Snap Decision raced well in the Palm Beach after breaking his maiden and McGaughey is good off the short layoff. Flying Bullet is moving up a bit but he seems to be on the improve.

Race 7

  • 6  Downtown at Noon
  • 2  Sunset Ridge
  • 9  Kinky Sox
  • Secondary (1, 7)

Race 8

  • 8  Calgary Cat
  • 1  Kharafa
  • 3  Siding Spring
  • 5  Disco Partner
  • Calgary Cat ran commendably in the BC Turf Sprint last year and has a graded stakes win to his credit. Kharafa is a NY bred competitive in these lesser stakes with open company. Last year he made his debut in this race, finishing five lengths behind the winner, but he’s shown the ability to run well off the layoff. Loves the turf at BEL. Sliding Spring should be the front runner here and has wired fields at 7 1/2 furlongs. If he has things his own way on the front he’ll be dangerous. Disco Partner is another one with a liking for the BEL turf and is one for two at the distance. Certainly fits well from the class perspective.  Make no mistake. This is a competitive group and value should be your guide.

Race 9

  • 12  Aktabantay
  • 1  Chamois
  • 10 Monster Mash
  • 2  Power Nap

Belmont April 28

Opening day at Belmont. Don’t have high expectations until the form settles.

Race 1

  • 6  Thebigfundamental
  • 5  Myakka River
  • 4  Spring On Curlin
  • Secondary (7)

Race 2

  • 6  Set the Trappe
  • 8  Saratoga Mischief
  • 7  Open Bar

Race 3

  • 1  Minerology
  • 2  Mr. Dougie Fresh
  • 5  Hemsworth

Race 4

  • 8  Bob
  • 4  Circumnavigator
  • 1  Crawfish Shorts
  • Secondary (5)

Race 5

  • 1  Marriage Fever
  • 5  Match Up
  • 2  Praetereo
  • Secondary (6)

Race 6

  • 12  Epping Forest
  • 2  Fire Key
  • 4  Shimmering Moon
  • Secondary (5, 1)

Race 7

  • 12  Thundering Sky
  • 5  Take These Chains
  • 2  Rumble Doll
  • 6  King’s Ghost
  • (secondary (4, 8)

Race 8

  • 13  Weekend Hideaway
  • 7  Celtic Chaos
  • 4  Ostrolenka
  • Secondary (11, 1, 3)

Race 9

  • 3  Frost Wise
  • 1  Dream a Little
  • 7  Summer Sweet
  • 9  Hollywood Cat
  • Secondary (5, 8)

Aqueduct April 23

It’s closing day at the Big A and I think everyone is looking forward to the opening of Belmont. Based on today’s card,  Aqueduct is leaving with a whimper, not a bang. Tough to find any prices on today’s card.

Race 1

  • 1  Motown Sound
  • 4  One Sided
  • 5  Big Discovery
  • Secondary (3)
  • Nothing special here. The top three choices look toughest, and the bottom two horses on the ML look like they belong there.

Race 2

  • 7  Dixie Runner
  • 2  Nominal Dollars
  • 4  Smokey Brown
  • Secondary (1, 3)
  • Dixie Runner has all the speed here and has been running with better. Looks deserving of favoritism. Nominal Dollars has been running well above this level and seemed to improve when moved back to the turf. He’s more of a closer and may not have any pace to run at, so he’s a bit of a chance here. Smokey Brown is not much of a win type but he is solidly in the money.

Race 3

  • 4  Dolphus
  • 2  Splashtastic
  • 1  Economic Model
  • While Economic Model will likely go favorite on the basis of his graded stakes resume, but I’m going to take a stand against him with Dolphus who ran well in the Stymie. Jimmy Jerkens has been fairly hot lately. Splashtastic is better than what he showed in the Stymie and I’m looking for him to be a factor today.

Race 4

  • 4  Fifty Five
  • 1  Dynatail
  • 2  Party Boat
  • Fifty Five should be the favorite off her win in the Florida Oaks but could be vulnerable given her closing style. Dynatail comes out of the same race as the top choice, and just like that race will have to be caught. Might have a better chance at AQU. Party Boat is solid given her graded stake credentials.

Race 5

  • 2  New York Bourbon
  • 6  No Lunks
  • 4  Flatterfly
  • Secondary (3, 7)
  • New York Bourbon drops in price and has shown the best speed in the field. Better chances in this group. No Lunks is dropping out of MSW into the claiming ranks. He should fit better in this field. Flatterfly ran well when moved to the main.

Race 6

  • 6  Quasney’s Angel
  • 7  Wink at Me
  • 3  My Ekati Cat
  • Secondary (4, 9)
  • Quasney’s Angel was jumped up in claiming price after Persaud grabbed her, and drops back in price today. Wink at Me was taken by Gary Gullo in January after finishing up the track in her first with winners. She had trouble in that race and should be more competitive today. My Ekati Kat just broke her maiden and should be in good condition for today’s affair.

Race 7

  • 9  Alabama Bound
  • 4 Puparee
  • 8  Khaleesi Kat
  • 1  Pop Singer
  • Secondary (7)
  • Alabama Bound  has had success at this level and is only on her third after breaking her maiden. Puparee has a pretty good win percentage and seemed to have improved this year at GP. Off her best, she’s in this mix. Khaleesi Kat makes her return off a win in a $50K claimer last November over this turf. Likes the surface, likes the distance. Pop Singer goes for Linda Rice who is 30% off the long layoff. Looks better meant for the turf.

Race 8

  • 7  Gold for the King
  • 1  Reason to Soar
  • 4  T Loves a Fight
  • Secondary (5, 6)
  • In this competitive race the horses likely to get bet look best. Plenty of speed in here, so tough one to predict.

Race 9

  • 5  Final Flurry
  • 8  Patience Love
  • 2 Schmiss
  • Secondary (4)
  • The top two morning line choices look tough in this one. Schmiss is well bred for the turf and for the distance and goes for the Linda Rice barn that is very good with first timers.

Aqueduct April 22

Race 1

  • 6  Tahoe Tigress
  • 3  Little Bear Cat
  • 1  Palladian Bridge
  • Little Bear Cat is likely to go favorite and has a consistent string of good figures, but I’m looking at Tahoe Tigress in the win slot. This race has a plethora of speed with 5 of the 6 runners preferring to be on or near the lead. If the race breaks down, it looks like the horse coming from off the pace is Tahoe Tigress.  She was claimed two back by Jeremiah Englehart who jumped her into a restricted stakes. She was overmatched there, but returns at a level where she’ll be much more competitive. She was a consistent runner with good figures last year, and if Englehart has her straightened out, she’ll be worth a look. Palladian Bridge has some consistent figures and has shown an ability to lay close to the pace and run well in the stretch.

Race 2

  • 6  Sweetrayofsunshine
  • 7  Spectacular Flash
  • 4  Julie D
  • Sweetrayofsunshine is two for two over the AQU main and she comes off a strong second on the inner. Perhaps a bit of a negative drop, but best last race figure suggests she’s a serious contender. Spectacular Flash was very wide in the Videogenic Stakes and faded in the stretch, but looked good in winning at this level two back. Julie D makes the right drop after flopping at a higher claiming level.

Race3

  • 3  Bird’s Eye View
  • 4  Secretary at War
  • 5  Frostmourne
  • Secondary (6)
  • Jimmy Jerkens has brought his horses to NY in winning shape, making Secretary at War very dangerous in this spot, and Frostmourne has already won a restricted stakes at BEL and looks well-conditioned for his 2017 debut. Still, I’m looking at taking a chance with Bird’s Eye View. He’s got a good closing kick and is graded stake placed. He’ll need some pace to run at, but considering he’s previously beaten Royal by Nature he is not outless here. A lot may depend on the ride he gets from Maragh.

Race 4

  • 2  Instant Replay
  • 5  Our Caravan
  • 3  Global Positioning
  • Secondary (4, 8)
  • Instant Replay runs well at the mileHe didn’t run well last out on the turf, but before that ran well at this distance on the inner. The concern is the trainer and jockey. Giglio is 0 for 19 this year, and jockey Reyes is at 6% for the year, but the class drop and the return to dirt should help. Our Caravan has a win on the main and  has succeeded at the distance. Another that was a bit over his head last out but is in the proper spot today.

Race 5

  • 3  Brewing
  • 1  Sir Bond
  • 5  Gentrify
  • Secondary (4, 6)
  • This is really any horse’s race. Charlton Baker claimed Brewing last August, laid him off for seven months and returned him on the inner where he didn’t show great interest. His second race in the slop was much improved, and he returns to the level closer to his claim price today. Third off the layoff could lead to success. Sir Bond was claimed by RuRod last out and he is 38% first off the claim. Never been out of the money on the main and has been successful at the distance. Gentrify is all the speed here, and that can make him very dangerous.

Race 6

  • 1  Heldatgunpoint
  • 10  Source Control
  • 8  Zaguri
  • Secondary (2, 3, 4)
  • Heldatgunpoint ran a little better than looked first time out. Frankly, the ride he got from Rosario was no help. He broke with the field, immediately started dropping back and lost touch around the turn, finally getting into it in the stretch when he had lost all chance. He gets a jockey switch and a weight break with low percentage rider Addiel Ayala. He could be chancy, but at the odds, I’m willing to give the horse one more shot to impress. Source Control wasn’t successful until he dropped to the $40K claiming level and ran well in his last on the inner when fitted with blinkers. Goes back to running with 3YOs today and that should be a positive. Zaguri turns back in distance and adds blinkers today.

Race 7

  • 1  Clutch Cargo
  • 3  Jacala
  • 10  Mr. Harlan
  • This is a race that seems to have some obvious choices but a lot of unknown runners. Clutch Cargo (I admit I am old enough to remember watching Clutch Cargo when it was originally shown) came from well out to break his maiden at BEL, and had one race on the inner back in January. Mike Hushion decided to wait until the turf opened to run him again, and he’s had a steady work tab in prep for this. Jacala ships up from GP where he had been racing  well. He’s in today with state-breds and that should work in his favor. Mr. Harlan is only 1 for 20, but has three second place finishes in a row. In this field he has prospects to be in the picture.

Race 8

  • 4  Noble Freud
  • 6  Bluegrass Flag
  • 2  Frosty Gal
  • Secondary (1)
  • Noble Freud ran big first time out and will almost certainly be the heavy choice. However, today she will have strong competition on the front end in the form of Bluegrass Flag. The latter will give the favorite all she can handle on the front end, and the two of them may just dual the entire race.  The upset possibility is Frosty Gal, and at 12-1 she may pick up all the pieces if the front two fry each other on the front end. Has to be used in the verticals.

Race 9

  • 3  Smarter
  • 11  Bootlegger
  • 5  Piazza Del Campo
  • Smarter ships up from GP. He’s been gelded since his last. He’s had two ugly starts in his two races, and with a better beginning he’s got good prospects at what could be a decent price. Bootlegger goes second time for Mott. In his first start he bumped the gate slightly on the break, never really was able to get into the race, had to circle the field, but finished with enthusiasm. With a clean break he could establish position early and close by the field. Piazza del Campo has been running competitively on the turf, although he seems more likely in the backholes than the win slot.

Aqueduct April 15

Race 1

  • 2  Stylish Quality
  • 5  Posse Needed
  • 1  Knarsdale
  • It’s going to be tough to find any odds in this race. Stylish Quality popped a big one first time out. She’s best if she runs her best. Posse Needed had some trouble getting going in her maiden voyage, but has been working well for her return. Knarsdale is a FTS from the James Jerkens barn who has a nice, regular work pattern for her debut.

Race 2

  • 1  Gee’n Tee
  • 7  Undercover Agent
  • 9  Greenhouse Effect
  • Secondary (2, 3)
  • There aren’t many price prospects today, so I’m looking at a flyer with Gee’n Tee. Considering he’s lost his first two races by a combined total of 75 lengths, I might be crazy, but he has a couple of positives. He’s dropping out of MSW into the claiming ranks, and that is always a powerful move. He also showed a little bit more speed in his last race than the previous effort. Finally, he has strong turf breeding and strong breeding for the distance. It’s not a particularly strong field, and while he may not be the best bet today, he has enough positives to attract a few bucks from me. Undercover Agent ran better on the main than on the inner and looks like the strongest of the horses that have started. Greenhouse Effect broke slowly last out and wound up very wide around the turn, but did pass some horses in the stretch. I like him to improve second time out. All in all an interesting betting race.

Race 3

  • 1  Buckwellspent
  • 7  Mister Monolo
  • 5  Metal Magic
  • Secondary (2)
  • Buckwellspent will probably volley for favoritism, should be the front runner, and given the lack of serious speed, if he can ration his energy correctly, he’s got a chance. Definitely not as interesting at 2-1 though. Mister Monolo was racing with much better last year and seemed to show a little more interest when moved back to the main. Another interesting horse that will be a price. Metal Magic took a year off, came back with higher priced horses and ran a mediocre race. But he makes the logical price drop today and off his best he is very competitive here.

Race 4

  • 2  Don’t Make It Easy
  • 5  Samurai Warrior
  • 6  Port More
  • Don’t Make it Easy hasn’t been farther than five lengths from the winner in his last nine races, and looks to be well intended at the 7F distance. Samurai Warrior looked strong breaking his maiden last out and DJ is pretty good with repeaters. Port More has a win over the main, and didn’t look bad with higher priced horses on the inner. Have to give him consideration.

Race 5

  • 4  Exclusive Zip
  • 3  Captain Kitt
  • 5  Psychic Energy
  • Secondary (2, 8)
  • Exclusive Zip came out running in his first start, moved up to MSW and ran into a couple of toughies in Long Haul Bay and Horrorscope. Both of those horses have come back to win and that flatters him. He’s got decent turf breeding. Captain Kitt has been struggling to get out of the maiden  ranks, and finally underwent the “ultimate equipment change.” He wasn’t much on the inner last out, but has shown better on the turf, including a third at AQU. Gets the weight break today. Psychic Energy steps up to the MSW for the crafty Linda Rice. He made a move forward last out and is fairly well bred for the turf.

Race 6

  • 5  Can’tmakethisup
  • 1  Augie’s Coming
  • 3  Dan the Man
  • Secondary (6, 8)
  • Can’tmakethisup should enjoy the stretch out to the mile and should feel more comfortable at this price level. Still has plenty of space for improvement. Augie’s Coming makes a huge drop from $50K starter allowance down to a NW2L $16K claimer. Given how good he looked at the higher level, the drop might be negative, but he does have the top numbers and plenty of speed. Watch the board on this one. Dan the Man has been knocking at this level a while, but has gotten a piece in half his starts. May be useful in the verticals.

Race 7

  • 3  Light in Paris
  • 7  My Impression
  • 1  Bishop’s Pond
  • Secondary (2, 4)
  • Light in Paris is graded stakes placed and goes for ace turf trainer Chad Brown. Consistently is competitive and should be very strong at this level. My Impression is another with graded stakes success and his last before the winter layoff was very impressive. Didn’t totally disgrace herself in the Hillsborough and should improve with the race under her belt. Bishop’s Pond is 20-1 on the ML and is making her first try with stakes company. Her figures are actually competitive.

Race 8

  • 9  First Appeal
  • 2  Tapceptional
  • 8  Tough Old Bird
  • This race is totally up in the air but I’m going with second time starter First Appeal. Her first start at Tampa wasn’t bad. She broke slowly, didn’t rush, and actually made up some ground in the stretch. I like that race and expect an improved effort today. Tapceptional goes first time for David Donk, and has a nice series of speed works. Should be able to get out and be a factor from the rail. Tough Old Bird drops from MSW down to claimers and has the top lifetime figure. Could be tough on the drop.

Race 9

  • 4  War Bond
  • 1  Buddy’s Tiz
  • 2  Mascarello
  • Secondary (6)
  • War Bond is listed as odds-on on the ML off the price drop and his experience on the turf. He looks good, and has the best figures in the race by far. Buddy’s Tiz makes a big jump up in price, but he does have some good races on the turf. Worth a look at the odds. Mascarello had some nice turf races before moving to the AQU inner and returns to that surface today.

Aqueduct April 9

Race 1

  • 1/1A  Buckwellspent/Playthatfunnymusic
  • 5  Too Wild to Repent
  • 6  Driving Me Crazy
  • This is a competitive race. The Joseph Parker entry looks tough, with Buckwellspent perhaps the stronger of the two. Last out he showed speed early but flopped in the lane, but prior to that he’s shown an ability to stay well in the stretch. A win and a second on theAQU main. TooWild to Repent was claimed by RuRod last out and jumps up in price. RuRod is almost 40% first off the claim.

Race 2

  • 2  Spotty Zealous
  • 3  Honorable Jonas
  • 4  Bear Clause
  • Secondary (6)
  • While Spotty Zealous is 2/5 on the morning line, he’s making a negative drop. He broke his maiden for $40K, ran respectably in a an OC$75K and drops all the way down to an NW2L $16K spot. You can’t bet against him, but I have to wonder, although the rest of the field is pretty dismal.

Race 3

  • 5  Gypsum Johnny
  • 2  Adulator
  • 6  Governor Malibu
  • Secondary (4)
  • Gypsum Johnny has been racing well and looks like he may wind up the value. Has an affinity for the main. Adulator was a solid runner in 2016, but his only start of 2017 was not a good one. Still, if Jerkens has him wound up he is very competitive with this price level.

Race 4

  • 8  General Bellamy
  • 5  Big Al Parker
  • 2  Storm the Shore
  • Secondary (3, 4)
  • Not likely a great betting race. General Bellamy is not really a win type but he is often close. Big Al Parker has the best last out figure and has only one race in his last nine out of the money.

Race 5

  • 6  Clipthecouponannie
  • 4  Carrumba
  • 2  Highway Star
  • Secondary (1, 3)

Nothing tricky here. Carrumba will get heavy action, but I’m going to  hope the track is playing like it did yesterday and look at the speed, Clipthecouponannie.

Race 6

  • 9  Broken Engagement
  • 5  Incorporate
  • 10  My Boy Tate
  • Secondary (1, 6, 7)
  • The horse I’m most interested in is Incorporate. He bobbled at the break in his last start, rushed to be with the leaders and gradually gave it up, although not that badly. At 20-1 on the ML he could be a worth a second look.  Broken Engagement makes his second start off the same race as the Incorporate. He was pinched back at the start and  made a nice even close to finish second.

Race 7

  • 6  Breeze Burner
  • 4  Italian Syndicate
  • 1  Valhalla
  • Secondary (7)
  • Breeze Burner was claimed by Contessa and immediate moved up where he was over his head. Comes back to his winning level today. Italian Syndicate also comes back to a level where he is more likely to succeed.

Race 8

  • 7  Elrigh
  • 2  Catapult
  • 6  Macagone
  • Secondary (1, 4)

Race 9

  • 2  Driven by Speed
  • 3 Miss Sizzle
  • 4  Holiday Disguise
  • Secondary (10, 11)
  • The first timers don’t look great here so I’m going to look at some of the horses that have had a start. The Pletcher horse Driven by Speed makes his 2017 debut. Pletcher is very strong off the layoff and with second time starters. Miss Sizzle adds blinkers and comes off a race where she was a favorite. Holiday Disguise might have been in one of the first two slots, but she’s more of a closer and the track had been playing to speed. But if the track is fair, up her chances.

Aqueduct April 8

Race 1

  • 2  Mineralogy
  • 1  Myakka River
  • 6  Lucullan
  • Secondary (3)
  • Minerology has two good races on the inner under his belt  and takes the blinkers off today. He looks like the best speed. Myakka River obviously didn’t get out of the gate well but he closed steadily and with a better break today should be a contender. Should be able to get a good stalking position since the horses outside of him should be winging.  The two first time starters, Lucullan and Britain both could be in the picture here.

Race 2

  • 1/1A  Tricked Up/Puissant
  • 10  Spin Cycle
  • 3  Runaway Posse
  • Secondary (5, 7)
  • In the case the race goes off the turf, the MTOs Vicente and Brimstone are the horses to beat.

Race 3

  • 3  Wild About Deb
  • 7  Moon Over a Beauty
  • 6  Speightstown Time
  • Secondary (1, 4)
  • Wild About Deb goes first time for David Jacobson, and was a fair stakes runner last year. Not overwhelming speed here, so if DJ has him in shape he looks best in the field. Moon Over a Beauty had trouble at the start last out but has shown good speed in his other starts. He looks like he has come back to the races more mature and could be the upsetter.

Race 4

  • 6  Cerise’s Prince
  • 8  Strong Side
  • 4  Focus Group
  • Secondary (12)
  • This race has a lot of possibilities, so I’m looking to take a chance on a longshot. Cerise’s Prince has had two starts where he has had plenty of trouble and tries the turf for the first time. I think the figures he earned make him better than looks, he should love the distance, and has fair turf breeding. Strong Side has lately had a case of seconditis but has shown decent ability in his turf starts. Focus Group is one of the few horses with turf experience and has the great turf trainer Chad Brown in his corner. That’s enough for me to include him, although I’m not excited about the odds. If the race goes to the main and Outplay draws in, he will be the choice.

Race 5

  • 6  Tasunke Witco
  • 1  Paid Admission
  • 5  Indycott
  • Secondary (7)

Race 6

  • 5  Theory
  • 2  Even Thunder
  • 4  Long Haul Bay
  • Secondary (1, 3, 6)
  • I don’t think there could be a surprise winner in this renewal of the Bay Shore. Theory may be a solid favorite and given the company he kept as a two-year old he probably deserves it. Pletcher is very good and getting horses ready off the layoff and he has a positive workout pattern. Even Thunder will be long odds but may be the one to pick up the pieces if the race breaks down in the stretch. Long Haul Bay comes off a nice maiden win and looks to make his step-up to the stakes ranks successful.

Race 7

  • 6  Bourbon Empire
  • 5  Ransom Note
  • 2  Cause for Surprise
  • Secondary (3, 10)
  • Bourbon Empire is an easy horse to miss in this field, but should be the value. In his first race he won going away, but in his three races since he had nothing but trouble. Now maybe he’s one of those horses that creates his own troubles, but I’m going to bank that he can stay trouble free, and if he does, he’s got a big chance to win. Ransome Note looked good in three races on the inner, and adds blinkers today in an effort to focus his speed. That can make him dangerous today.

Race 8

  • 7  Doyouknowsomething
  • 2  Send It In
  • 6  Admiral Blue
  • Secondary (4)
  • While Send It In looks very strong in this spot – he’s a 50% winner – I’m looking seriously at Doyouknowsomething who should be able to set his own pace. He’s won before at the distance. I won’t go nuts, but if you’re looking to bet something other than the favorite, he’s worth a look.

Race 9

  • 8  Unified
  • 6  Spartiatis
  • 2  Tommy Macho
  • Secondary (4)

Race 10

  • 8  Irish War Cry
  • 7  Cloud Computing
  • 2  Mo Town
  • Secondary (3, 5)
  • This edition of the Wood Memorial features a lot of horses that prefer to run toward the front. Irish War Cry threw in an inexplicable clunker in the Fountain of Youth. I believe the fact that he is starting in the Wood means Graham Motion got him straightened out and ready to run the way he showed he could in his first three starts. Perhaps if he gets pushed too hard he’ll fold again, and in that case Cloud Computing looks like a horse that looks like he could be a budding star. He looked good in the Gotham in only his second lifetime start, and may turn out to be decent value.

Race 11

  • 5  Miss Sky Warrior
  • 1  Yorkiepoo Princess
  • 2  Full House
  • Secondary (4, 8, 9)
  • Miss Sky Warrior is riding a four race win streak including two over the AQU main. She’s looked strong in graded events and looks very tough to beat today. Yorkiepoo Princess could be on the bottom of a decently paying exacta. She’s on a three race win streak of her own and should be in a good spot in the run to the wire.

Race 12

  • 1/1a  Broken Engagement/Super Luke
  • 8  Pirate’s Treasure
  • 9  Carthon
  • Secondary (2, 5)

10 Ways to Fix Horseracing

One of the great ironies of racing is that the people in charge seem to be the only ones who don’t have the answer to “how to fix horseracing,” at least according to social media. Ask any serious racing fan and you’ll get a “slew” of suggestions on improving the sport. So here goes with my best shot at revitalizing horseracing, in no particular order.

1.Simplify the betting menu and you can drop the take and keep revenues constant or increasing. The question for the racing authorities is simple: how much will adding bets increase handle? If a player brings $200 to the track, will increasing the potential number of pools increase handle or revenue or is he just going to spend his $200 either way? The well known formula for gambling revenue is

Gaming Revenue = Volume x House Advantage

In the case of horse racing volume equals handle and house advantage equals the take. In very simple terms either you have to increase volume or increase the house advantage while keeping volume the same to increase revenue. But, as has been shown in numerous studies, raising the take has the effect of lowering the volume. So the less enlightened jurisdictions raise the take again and lose even more volume.

The ideal for horseplayers is to raise the volume while reducing the house advantage. This gives the good horseplayer a better advantage, while maintaining revenue for the house, a win-win. The problem is it is much harder to do when you have a Cheesecake Factory sized betting menu. Even if a track drops the take on a win bet, they may not realize a net gain in revenue unless people pull out of the other pools, usually pools with a higher take

My hypothesis? Reduce the number of betting pools and if the track does it right, (1) they’ll increase the volume in the remaining pools enough to increase total volume AND (2) increase the churn because people will be experiencing more collections. Increase the volume and you can drop the take and still keep revenue constant. In my opinion the two things have to be done coincidentally.

The fact is that the so-called jackpot bets, like the Pick-6 create little churn. Horseracing is not the lottery, and they are never going to be able to compete with the lottery. How do you compete against walking into a 7-11, saying quick pick and handing a clerk $2 for a chance to win a few hundred million?

If our $200 a day bettor decides to get into the Pick-6, he won’t be able to cover very many of the combinations (assuming there are 8 horses in each race, that’s 262,144 combinations) and he won’t be in a pool where the track picks up the churn. The track will get their percentage of the $200, the guy loses, and starts wondering what he’s doing at the track. Without some sort of addiction, nobody is going to play a game where they are mainly donating their money.

Here is my suggestion for a betting menu:

  • Win betting every race;
  • Exactas on every race, and no quinellas;
  • Combine the place and show pools into a single pool, but pay to the first three spots. This may also cut back on negative pools;
  • The take on win, place/show, and exactas would not exceed 14%;
  • Trifectas only on races with at least eight starters and superfectas only on races with at least nine starters, and the minimum bet is $1. No 50 cent or 10 cent bets. Lowering the minimums not only dilutes the prices, but it encourages people with no business betting into those pools to switch from the pools where they have a better chance of winning;
  • A maximum of five Daily Doubles, three Pick-3’s, one Pick-4, one Pick-5 and one Pick-6 a day, with a minimum bet of $1 on everything but the Pick-6 where the minimum would be at least $2, if not $3. At the very least, you’ll keep the undercapitalized out of the Pick-5 and Pick-6 pools. I used to know a lot of serious Pick-4 players who gave up the bet when it went to a fifty cent minimum. Yes, tracks can get more small bettors into the pool, but if it comes at the expense of the bigger players, the tracks are basically shooting themselves in the foot. The arithmetic is simple. 10,000 bets at 50 cents is less revenue than 6,000 bets at $1. Same for the superfecta. 100,000 bets at 10 cents is less than 11,000 bets at $1. Small tracks, at the least, figured out years ago that dropping the minimums doesn’t increase the volume. And when you hit a big superfecta it can be one of those life-changing collections.
  • Stagger the bets so there are not more than two horizontal exotics on a respective race. So Race 1 might be Daily Double/Pick-5, Race 2 — Pick-3, Race 3 — Daily Double/Pick-4, Race 4 — Pick 3/Pick-6, and so on.  This focuses the exotic money;
  • No take percentage on the combination/exotic bets should exceed 22.5%, and even that sounds like it should be lower.

And that’s it. Enough exotics to keep the professional player happy, but a focus on the bets the lower capitalized players can win. Increase churn, increase volume, lower percentage, and at least revenue neutral.

2.Cut operating costs. This entails at least two things. One, getting rid of, or at least redesigning, cavernous plants that were built when 15,000 people would attend the races on the weekend. It makes no sense to maintain a huge facility that is all but empty except for two days during the season. Two, automating to the maximum extent possible. There is no reason I should have to wait in a line at the track to bet – ever. If I have a tablet, I should be able to connect to the track ADW and bet, and funding/unfunding my account is as simple as walking to a window. There should be plenty of self-service machines for those without a tablet, and they don’t have to be the big clunky sort. It’s 2017 for goodness sake. I’ve been to restaurants where you barely have to interact with the wait staff once you sit down and there is no waiting to order. Someone brings you water, there is a tablet at the table, you order, you slide your credit card, your meal shows up a few minutes later, and the staff does the obligatory checking on you. You can’t tell me you couldn’t do the same thing at the track. Yeah, there are a few old guys and a few neophytes that the track might have to coddle, but if we’re talking about new customers in the millennial age group, they will love the technology.

3.Make the track a destination for more than racing. Realistically, how do you justify a facility that is used by the public only part of the year for five or six hours a day? You’ve got to have additional revenue streams, and I don’t mean a casino or upping the prices for parking, admission and programs. In fact, general parking should be free, the grandstand admission should be $5 and you should get a $3 betting only voucher in return.

I was at the South Pointe Hotel and Casino recently. It’s on Las Vegas Boulevard,  but about seven miles from the wall-to-wall casino part of the strip, so it has to be relatively self-contained. It had 11 restaurants, a big multiplex movie theater, a large bowling alley, a bingo parlor, meeting rooms, a show room – you could stay there for three days and never get outside, which thinking about it is probably the point. Tracks should have a great sports bar, a nightclub, some good shopping – and I don’t mean just the gift shop – for those who might bring someone who isn’t quite as interested in the horses, good restaurants where you would be happy to stay after the races and eat dinner, recreational opportunities for the kids that are out of any area where people are betting – you get the idea. Design a destination that will generate traffic from morning until late at night. And if people show up for lunch or dinner and only bet a few bucks, that’s still more than the track would get if they never showed up in the first place.

In the right location, a conference center would be a good revenue source. The shops and restaurants should have separate outside entrances, and if you spend any money at one, your track admission is free. The track makes money on a lease, people have a reason to go to the track other than horseracing, and you can accommodate people who wouldn’t go to the track unless they could induce family/friends to come along. The track also becomes a year-round destination if it is designed right.

One last thing. We’re all used to paying a premium at a sporting event, but how about making the prices just a smidge above the normal street price.

4.Standardize the medication list and thresholds nationally. If you believe the anecdotal evidence, a lot of people believe chemical substances are rampant in racing. Whether or not that is your opinion, it makes no sense to have 37 different permissible medication lists and thresholds. Get every jurisdiction together, have them agree on the list and the thresholds, and trainers will not be able to complain about not being aware of differing thresholds between jurisdictions. Same threshold in Arizona as in Florida, same in Nebraska as in California. Between the HBPA, ARCI, and the NTRA, there are plenty of opportunities to convene and facilitate the meetings. There is no reason to usurp the authority of the states to enforce the thresholds, if that is at all a concern, but if there is interest standardizing enforcement, that  can also be put on the table.

We have been enforcing medication/drug standards the same way for decades. To expect a different result is absurd. There are two obvious issues. One is that most of the thresholds are less related to performance enhancement than you might think. The nature of most thresholds is to identify a level which a horse should be below after dosing a certain period before the race. In other words, it is the residual after metabolization. The threshold doesn’t necessarily mean a level above which there is performance enhancement. There are certain medications that have no performance enhancing effect beyond their therapeutic value. While it is fine to set the threshold for those medications and call a positive, it makes more sense to treat those violations as a traffic ticket rather than a felony, and the punishment would not involve retroactive disqualification from the finish position and purse. Like traffic tickets, an accumulation of violations within a specified period of time upgrades the punishment. There is no essential difference between the level of violation for a single positive for omeprazole (Prilosec) and clenbuterol (a bronchodilator) in most racing commission rules, yet abuse of the later can be performance enhancing. Would it really be bad for racing to treat therapeutics that have no real performance enhancing impact differently than therapeutics that have the potential for performance enhancement, and to even treat those differently than illegal substances?

Second, the vast majority of enforcement money is spent on catching violations after the fact. The key for racing would be to prevent a horse likely to test positive from ever entering the starting gate. And no, out of competition testing is hardly the answer for legal substances because testing a horse 48 hours out from a race and finding the presence of a legal therapeutic isn’t of much value, and that is what almost all the tests will show. The very few cases of finding something illegal a few days before a race – and that would be pretty much only anabolics or Class 1 substances – could get the harshest penalties, but that may not be sufficient justification for a costly OOC testing program.

The answer is two fold. There needs to be an automated record keeping system that shows exactly which medicines a horse has been given by amount and time. Those records should be available to the track medical director, who would have the power to flag anything suspect. The medical director could order testing if there is time, or recommend to the stewards that the horse be declared. If the trainer is shown to have followed all dosing and withdrawal requirements any subsequent positive moves into the traffic ticket category. If the trainer and vet have altered the records, they both lose their license for some period that makes an impact and the owner is ruled off the track for a similar period. Any honest owner would tell his trainer that real “cheating” will not be tolerated.

Vigilance and investigation before the fact can go a long way to avoiding post-race positives.

Punish any violation that show a real intent to gain a chemical advantage harshly, but don’t make as big a deal over violations that aren’t performance enhancing, or where trainers made every effort to comply.

5.Consistency in evaluating inquiries or objections. This would only apply in cases where there is potential for disqualification. In my opinion, it would be fine for the stewards to call an inquiry or for the jockey to object, but much like major league baseball, there should be a central location that makes the decision to disqualify or not. If MLB can handle 15 games a night, racing could handle simultaneous tracks running. This is as close as we can come to consistency across the country and should quiet most of the critics. Nobody can successfully make the argument that there is a substantial difference between adjudicating a foul in Maryland vs Florida or Illinois. The only thing we know is that the stewards in each jurisdiction can take the same foul and make three different decisions. You want credibility in racing – it starts with consistency and having a reliable system for making the right call.

And for the most part, the stewards still have most of their responsibilities for enforcing the other racing rules. No doubt they will be irritated with the change, but it’s best for the fans and best for racing.

6.Information should be free. That includes basic past performances and whatever other data the tracks want to provide. If you don’t think simulcast racing forms that sell for $7 or $8 on track don’t keep people out of the game, you don’t understand simple economics. I used to joke that between parking, clubhouse admission, racing form, and a Pepsi, I was down $20 at Saratoga before I made a bet. The “nut” is too high, and tracks need to recognize they’ll get a lot more people betting money at the track if they subsidize information. And it can only apply to people who are attending the races in person so that the tracks aren’t subsidizing other venues.

Ever see the supermarket ads where some food item is on sale for half price? We know the supermarket isn’t making money on the product – it’s what they call a loss leader – but the purpose is to get you into the store so you buy things where they are making money.

Sell the premium products – the serious players will still probably use them –  but make it so that if someone shows up at the track (or my attached sports bar) they can get enough free (or really cheap) information to make an informed selection.

7.Increase customer service. Let me ask a question. Do most of you believe your track or ADW treats you as you should be treated based on your action? While many states do not allow for rebates, they certainly allow comps. I actually witnessed an official at Saratoga seek out a valued player and ask him how many of that day’s giveaways he would need. A small thing, but something that made him feel special. Too many tracks make customers feel like the track is doing them a favor by allowing them to bet the races.

Customer service for new players should be easily obtainable as well. Free betting and handicapping seminars should occur throughout the day. There should be somebody available to help people with betting machines. There should be a customer service representative available throughout the racing day. And they shouldn’t have an attitude.

While I’m thinking about it, POST TIME MEANS POST TIME AND TRACKS SHOULD COORDINATE POST TIMES WITH OTHER TRACKS. And if we make the automation changes, there is no reason to have 35 minutes between posts. 20 minutes should work just fine.

The racetrack has enough crusty characters. The people who work there shouldn’t be among them.

8.Start catering to millennials. According to the Motley Fool,

  • Millennials find games like the current slot product uninteresting;
  • Millennial gamblers want to be engaged and empowered, and to exert some control over outcomes;
  • Millennials prefer night clubs to sitting at a gambling table;
  • Millennials are more interested in online gaming, poker and daily fantasy sports (DFS);
  • Millennials want skill-based games;
  • Millennials want experiences;
  • Millennials want to be social;
  • Millennials demand fairness.

The question is, why would they not be a lot more interested in horseracing? It can’t be that picking a fantasy team is orders of magnitude easier than coming up with a winner. You want daily action? No problem. Skill-based. Check that box. Exerting control? You make all the decisions.

So what could horseracing do to compete for millennials?

Most of the suggestions I’ve already made fall into that category, like dropping the take or giving away information for free or having it be an entertainment venue.  Millennials still go to Vegas, but for nightclubs and entertainment. Horseracing could learn something about adapting. Do you have to pay for fantasy sports statistics? Of course not. I’m not sure how to get the take low enough to compete with things like fantasy sports, but the race tracks can have the advantages of being social and providing experiences, something you can’t get if your only option is on line.

Somebody has to figure out what creates “fairness,” because the current regime has done little to convince even ardent supporters that it is a clean sport.

9.Racing, like casinos and fantasy sports, has to disengage from the state. They have to become a for profit business that pays taxes based on profits and not a percentage off the top. That would help them they drop the take enough to make a difference.

The state can continue to regulate racing, as they do other gambling ventures, but you have to allow the business to function as a business. They would negotiate with the jockeys and the horsemen, just like other sports do.

What other business pays tribute off the top before accounting for all the operating expenses? Sounds like the old protection racket, doesn’t it.

10.There has to be contraction in terms of the number of racetracks. All things considered, most jurisdictions would be happy to be OTB’s or ADW’s. There are two reasons why that would be a problem. First, there are enough national ADW’s that most of the betting revenue might never stay within the state. Second, horsemen have strong influence, and they will work hard to fund a breeding industry in the state. Without sufficient revenues from handle (and purses), the breeding industry doesn’t survive. Horsemen have also been very effective in convincing legislatures that the breeding industry contributes a significant amount to the state economy.

I understand that, and believe it is a legitimate concern on the part of horsemen. But it has been the case for years that the pool of horses is shrinking. Small fields are too often the rule. On a nine race day, we should have at least 80 horses or so. Last Sunday at AQU there were 62 entries for the nine races. That’s slightly less than seven horses per race. Under my proposal for a revised betting menu, three races would have been trifecta eligible, and only one race superfecta eligible. That is totally unacceptable.

One obvious way to increase field size is to reduce the number of tracks available for racing. This may also have a tangential positive effect. It could be easier to put healthier horses on the track and allow horses with health issues more time to recover.

Contraction doesn’t simply mean watching the smaller, class C tracks close. That is not the problem. They are either the last stop for the marginal racehorses, or playgrounds for the state breeders. No, contraction means eliminating some of the mid-level venues too.

The ultimate outcome should be two-fold: increasing the handle at the remaining tracks – by a lot I might add – and increasing field size.

Have you ever read The Tragedy of the Commons, a famous essay written by Garrett Hardin in 1968? Say you have a common grazing area for cattle and you have one cow and another grazer has one cow. You realize the grazing area has unused capacity, so you bring in a few more cows. Your competitor sees the same thing and he also adds cows. This goes on until there are so many cows they use up the entire grazing area and instead of having long term grazing land, the grazers will have to move to a different area.

Same thing in racing. Each jurisdiction only functions in its own best interest with little regard for the commons, in this case the industry as a whole. No state has a real incentive to give up racing as long as they are making money and the horsemen are happy. In fact, in some states, in order to run a simulcast operation there have to be a certain minimum number of racing days.

But in order for some states to make money they do things that deteriorate the game, like raising the take. It can be a vicious circle.

How do we create contraction?

  • Revenue sharing. The tracks that keep running have to help keep the tracks that shut down revenue whole so that they can fund breeding programs. If it works out, volume increases at the active tracks and there should be sufficient revenues to share.
  • For those states that have an active track there is no problem running races for state-breds. For the states that don’t have an active track, they can run an abbreviated meet for “state-breds only”  and some of the major stakes in an adjacent state. For example, when Colonial Downs closed, the Virginia Derby became the Commonwealth Derby and was run at Laurel.
  • The formula for getting the simulcast signal to states that gave up racing should be at a favorable rate.
  • States that lose tracks should pass rules that set up an in-state ADW and that require all bets originating in that state to go through that ADW or be placed at OTBs.
  • FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY, here is a hypothetical list of tracks that would remain active. This would not include harness or quarterhorse tracks. Albuquerque, Arlington, Belmont, Canterbury, Churchill Downs, Del Mar, Emerald Downs, Fair Grounds, Golden Gate, Gulfstream, Keeneland, Kentucky Downs, Laurel, Louisiana Downs, Monmouth, Oaklawn, Sam Houston, Santa Anita, Saratoga, Sunland, Tampa Bay Downs, Thistledown, Turf Paradise.  You’ll notice a number of the tracks with attached casinos were left off the list, probably to the joy of the casino owners. 23 tracks nationwide.

There you have it. My proposal to save racing. Not the only ideas and maybe not even the best ideas, but a place to start debate.

Aqueduct April 2

Race 1

For a five-horse race it presents some interesting handicapping challenges. Two horses will get most of the action. Phocea at least has shown some success at the mile distance and has a win on the main. She’s been knocking at the door and might get in today. Frostie Annie has been making a living sprinting, but she should have it all her own way on the front and if she doesn’t blow her brains out she may be able to get the distance. Morethanjusthello had a little trouble at the start last out and has spent a lot of her career with better. No surprise if she wins.  6-3-2  

Race 2

Patton Proud was claimed last out for twice today’s price and looks fastest if he runs his best. Bluegrass Chat should be the speed here. He bled in his last, but he’s been given plenty of recovery time and has had success at the 7 furlong distance. Hunt’s Road hasn’t been out since June but Englehart picked a fairly easy spot for his return. More attractive at the odds. 7-5-2  Secondary (1)

Race 3

Another five-horse special. I think you might look for a price since none of the runners is without chances. I’ll look at Princessofthieves at 15-1 ML. She’s got the best last race figure, and she has a win in her lone start on the main. She should be prompting the pace. Riot Worthy has been routing, but has been successful on the main and at the distance. She’s in good condition and certainly would be no surprise. Picco Uno has only one bad lifetime race. She’s the one to beat, but at 4/5 I’m looking to find some value.  1-5-2  Secondary (3, 4)

Race 4

Adirondack Dream ran his best race at this price level two back and switches trainers to the veteran Harold James Bond. Lost all chance when starting awkwardly in his last, and with a clean break he should be a factor. Algorix makes his second start, gets Lasix, and makes a big drop from MSW to claimers. Cournyer was claimed by high percentage claiming trainer Chris Englehart last out, gets first Lasix and takes the shades off. 4-5-8  Secondary (1, 7)

Race 5

Archumybaby made a big leap when moved to the inner and if she continues with current form she could be the value. No Hayne No Gain should be the speed and looks good for Asmussen. Clearly will be tough to beat. Three Eighty Eight is one for one on the main and has the figures to compete in this group.  3-4-2  Secondary (5)

Race 6

Mr Buff looks like one of the speed factors here and he is coming off a good effort with equivalent horses. Dynamax Prime has had issues going wide, but finished close to Mr. Buff last out. Gets first Lasix and that may lead to enough improvement to put him over the top. Toga Challenger jumps up to the one turn mile in his third lifetime start. His first two have been good efforts, and given he has been sprinting  should be the best of the speed. Might be tough to catch.  7-5-1  Secondary (3)

Race 7

Manipulated’s last win came on the AQU main. He was claimed by Jacobson three back and he is placing him at the same level from which he was claimed. He’s got the best last race figure as well. Dr. Shane is an interesting horse. He’s made a few changes since his last out – blinkers come off and he made the ultimate equipment change becoming a gelding. Off his best he’s competitive. Kohlhase should be the speed here and will have to be caught in the stretch.  8-3-4  Secondary (2, 7)

Race 8

Isabelle has been running well with state-bred stakes horses and won a restricted stakes by 12 last out. However, her success has been on the inner and that makes her suspect. Still, if she runs her best she’s the one to beat. Winter comes off two wins in restricted stakes at LRL and hasn’t run a bad race since last September. Mo’ Green ships in from GP where she had been mostly routing, but she certainly has the talent to compete here.   4-6-5

Race 9

Really made a big improvement when dropped to the maiden claiming level and with a repeat performance could be the one. Our Verde is another that ran well with maiden claimers, jumped up to MSW at a mile, and drops back with claimers and a sprint. Looks promising. Miss Pearl drops out of MSW for this run and could be the value.  1-4-8