Belmont April 30

Race 1      1A-2-3

Rock Me Again finished second at this distance last time she was on the turf – she’s 3 for 3 in the money at the distance – and her figure for that race dominates the field. She’s a front running sort in a race that doesn’t have an abundance of speed. Yesterday’s turf races were a mix, although the track seemed fair. Theresas Candyrose ran one of the early races on the turf at AQU and turned in a top performance. She’s 2 of 3 with a second at the distance, and has a third on the BEL turf. The figure almost matches that of the top choice. Dea has some decent 2016 form and figures to be coming at the front runners in the stretch. Not out of the question.

Race 2      1-4-8

The entry of Bad Hombre and the Nevada Kid looks tough in this sport. The former is racing for his lowest price in a very long while and at his best he could dominate the field. The latter has plenty of early foot and may go out uncontested. Strong entry here. Stay Tuned ran decently in one of the late races at AQU. Last year he was a very useful horse, finishing first or second seven of ten times. If he runs to his potential he’s a contender. Aleander hasn’t been worse than fourth in his last ten. He might be a little more interested in finishing second or third than winning, but he’s been solid in the verticals.

Race 3      3-9-7-6

Undertherain has consistent figures on the turf. His race at GP six weeks ago was a good conditioner for his race at BEL today. Seems to like the BEL turf. Sweet Corina ran well at AQU two weeks ago and seems to have improved as a four year old. I like that Casse wheels her right back. Aussie Prayer and Hatta’s Appeal both have some good turf races in their PP’s and they look like live longshots.

Race 4      9-5-4

True Charm ran a new top last out and that race would dominate these. If she adapts to BEL she’s the solid pick. Super Allison takes the blinkers off today. Her last two on the inner showed improvement and if she likes the BEL surface she looks competitive. Cat’s Halo dropped into a MCL event last out and ran an improved race. She’s not particularly well bred for the turf, so continuing on the dirt is a good move.

Race 5      6-7-2-3

Wicked Freud has seemed to enjoy the distance and the BEL turf. He’s one of the few that has been exclusively a turf runner and he seemed to be on the improve before taking a vacation over the winter. If he comes back fully developed he’ll be tough to beat. Black Tide seemed comfortable on the BEL and SAR turf last year, but wasn’t the same horse on the AQU inner. He’s back on his preferred surface and ran well last year his first time on the turf. Gran the Man ran a new top on the GP turf last out, although that was a decidedly shorter distance than this one. Looks like one of the horses that will battle at the front, so the pace will be critical. Bajan Summer may be the hidden horse. Two of his three wins are on the BEL turf and he’s good at the distance. His turf figures are competitive, and he should be up front from the get-go.

Race 6      2-1-10

Porch Pounder almost wired a field last out and drops from MSW to this claiming affair. Has the field topping figure and looks like he’ll have things his own way up front. Vandalize ran well first time out at GP and then took 14 months off. Pletcher is superb with horses coming in off a layoff and if he runs to the ability he showed first time out he could hit the wire in front. Our Karma moves up in price today. Last start he was bumped at the start but still ran a good one. At 10-1 ML worth a look.

Race 7      2-4-6

Bellamy Way hasn’t been out of the money in his last nine, and his last two figures are better than anything any other horse has. Likes BEL and is undefeated at the distance. Rally Cry goes for Pletcher/Velasquez. He was well enough thought of that he went in the Gotham, being up with the pace early and not finishing that badly. Could have the pace much more his way today. Sea Raven only has two starts in 2016, losing to top choice Bellamy Road. I went with him over Waymond Road because he looks like he might be closer early and that may be an advantage here.

Race 8      2-5-12-4

This renewable of the Elusive Quality is a very tough race. First only one horse has any recency, and we’ll get to that in a moment. King Kreesa has most of his wins at BEL and is 13 of 15 in the money. He’s decent at the distance, he likes to do his running up close to the leaders. The one down side – last year he debuted in this race and lost to Mosler. Green Mask may be the class of this group having run G1’s in Hong Kong and Dubai. He’s got a win over the BEL turf and should run well at the distance. At his best he’s got the top numbers. Aztec Brave has been running a steady diet of stakes races, although none graded. Still, he hasn’t finished worse than a length off the winner in his last six. Figures say he’s got plenty of outs. The longshot play may be Bye Bye Bernie. He’s got a start in 2016, and is the only one that does. He’s won a Grade 2 and actually has shown well at BEL. We’ll see if his recency gives him an edge.

Race 9      12-2-11-3

Silent Mission ran a route at FG, leading to the top of the stretch. He then went in a race with winners where he didn’t disgrace himself. At 8-1 he’s worth a look. Gee Pea Ess has been knocking around for five starts at this level, and while he’s been very competitive, he’ll have to show more interest in passing horses in the stretch. Mr. Neetie gets first time Lasix and stretches out a furlong off his debut run. Conquest See Ya puts the blinkers on after running a better than looked race on the synthetic at Woodbine. Should enjoy the stretch out to six furlongs.

Horses to Watch – Belmont Spring Meeting

April 29

  • More Than Rainbows quickly went to the front and held pretty well to only lose the whole thing by 2 lengths. He may be a one dimensional speed horse, but he looked a little better on the turf.
  • Classy Chris had a bad trip. Broke poorly, refused to drive up the rail, was pulled back to last to go to the outside and made a sustained wide move to finish second.
  • Animal Appeal dueled up front with Hush Now in very fast fractions and was run down.
  • Esther the Queen was close to the rapid fractions in the 5th race and still closed well to finish second.
  • Wake Up Smiling lost momentum in the stretch but once she regained stride was closing courageously,
  • Race to Watch – 7th was run in course record time. Race was won by closer’s, so especially look at the pacesetters.

April 30

  • Puppy Manners broke poorly, was hard to wrangle, but found his stride late and just prevailed.
  • Castaway pressed on the outside of the leaders, outkicked them in the stretch and just missed.
  • Mosler set a torrid pace and hung on the best of the speed horses.

May 1

  • The track had a lot of moisture  and the day seemed to favor horses off the rail to midtrack.
  • Nicholson was no match for the winner, but looked good in holding off the rest of the field. Worth a look on the comeback.
  • Sweetrayofsunshine battled for the lead, was challenged at the top of the stretch and continued on the rail courageously.
  • War Queen missed the break from the one hole, rushed to catch the main group but gave way in the stretch
  • Curious Cal battled neck and neck around the track while on the outside and just missed.
  • Geaux Mets battled strongly while on the rail but got bogged down in the deeper going and faded in the stretch

May 4

  • Sioux went right to the front, ran well but could not hold off the winner.

May 5


May 6


May 7

  • Most winners stayed off the rail and finished mid track.
  • Arnhem led all the way to the last jump.
  • Tashreeh broke smartly, ran without being punished and drew away in the stretch without being asked for his best.
  • Prophet’s Cat hopped at the start and was quickly four lengths behind. He made a good move entering the stretch and didn’t miss the show by that much.
  • Force set some fast fractions but could not hold on.
  • Smooth Daddy went right to the front, stubbornly held on in the stretch, but in the end could not hold off the winner.

May 8

  • Most winners stayed off the rail and finished mid track
  • Don’t Point set the fractions, was stubborn in the stretch, but couldn’t match strides with the winner.
  • Yenta steadied out of the gate, rushed to be with the main group, ran with interest but could not sustain that move.

May 11

  • Pinnacle Mountain was buried on the rail, finally found a seam and finished with courage
  • Indulgent broke slowly, looked to be fighting the jockey early, made a sharp sustained move mid race but flattened in the stretch.
  • Shkspeare Shallyah broke poorly, trailed well back early, but was finishing best of all.
  • St. Louie checked hard shortly after the start and never got into the race. 
  • Width battled up front and finished the best of the early speed horses.

    May 12

  • Frontrunners slightly off the rail seemed to have an advantage.
  • In Condition looked ready to hop up at the start when the gates opened, was being controlled by the assistant starter and did not break with the others. Ultimately was declared a non-starter.
  • For Later missed the break, losing five lengths out of the gate, made steady progress around the turn and closed to be a clear second. 
  • Time for Angie broke well, settled in second outside the leader,  passed that one around the turn, took the lead coming into the stretch and drew off under a hand ride
  • Inspector Lynley was making a move along the rail in the stretch and was checked hard, losing all momentum.
  • Pirouette broke slowly and was quickly 5 lengths behind the field and was never pushed hard.

May 13

  • On the dirt, speed off the rail as the winning pattern.
  • Jet Black battled for the lead, finally put the chalk away, went head to head with the winner and just missed.
  • Wizardly was a long way back early, closed furiously on the rail and lost the whole thing by 3/4 length.

May 14

  • Speed had a definite advantage on the dirt
  • Tiz Twice led all the way to the 16th pole and barely missed the place.
  • Sunny Puzzle pressed on the outside of the leader, opened up in the stretch and won under a hand ride in a good time.
  • Offering Plan and Ascend raced as a pair well back with the former on the outside and the latter on the inside. Offering Plan had clear running on the outside while Ascend had a little bit of traffic. Ascend ducked down to the rail and was able to close well once clear.
  • Clifton Pleasure broke awkwardly, recontacted the pack quickly, came from well back along the rail, shifted outside around the turn and closed to get the place.
  • Recepta and Ball Dancing checked badly early in the race and fell back. Recepta closed courageously to finish third
  • Wake Forest hesitated slightly at the break and settled last on the rail early, was looking for a space on the inside, almost got trapped, found a way outside in mid stretch, and flew by the field once clear.
  • Money Multiplier battled up front four lengths ahead of the main pack, stayed when the pack came to him, and held all but the winner safe.
  • Majestic Bloom was sent to the lead, held off all the challenges except the winner, and was a clear second.

May 15

  • The dirt was still favoring horses near the lead early.
  • Box Office broke in the air, lost five lengths immediately and never got into the race.
  • Rain in Spain went to the front, drifted into the place horse in the stretch near the wire, and was disqualified.

May 18

  • With the exception of the 10 furlong race, everything was won by horses on or close to the lead.
  • Star Empire dueled with Fuhrlong, took the lead out of the turn and won easily.

May 19

  • Again, the track favored horses on or near the lead in most races.
  • Dixie Kicks went right to the front, fought off a challenge around the turn, and worked hard to hold the place
  • Outzap hopped at the start, tried to rush while on the outside, made a long sustained move to get into fourth, gallantly closed and managed to finish third.
  • Slew’s Brew broke in the air, trailed early, moved up down the backstretch, and closed strongly to get third
  • Just the Zip set the hot franctions and held best of the speed horses.

May 20

  • Both surfaces seemed speed favoring
  • Drop Shot went to the front on the inside and won without being asked for his best.
  • Lutheran Miss broke well, settled in second just off the leader on the rail, took them coming out of the turn, and was far the best.
  • Lady Luciano was flanked outside the leaders, took the lead in the stretch and barely lost after a courageous drive.
  • Summer Candy broke slowly, was eight lengths out of it early, moved up along the rail, was moving well when steadied coming out of the turn, but closed willingly to finish fourth.
  • Ranger’s Express broke well, steadied soon out of the gate and was shuffled back almost to last. Eventually found a slot on the rail but couldn’t close past the winner.

May 21

  • The track seemed to play more fair today
  • The Imposter also came from far back and barely missed.
  • Paulasilverlining broke with the field, was in no rush to take the lead, dropped back two lenfths on the rail, made her move without great urging and drew away smartly
  • Disco Bill reared up out of the starting gate, fell well behind, made a move to recontact the field, but could not sustain it.

May 22

  • Speed once again dominated.
  • Dean Verdile went to the lead, ran gamely in the stretch and just lost
  • Nile Princess checked soon after the start and quickly trailed by four lengths, but rallied up the rail for third
  • Doxology was impeded most of the stretch but ran well once clear and nearly grabbed second

May 26

  • Bibbo pressed up close, took the lead in the stretch and drew away with confidence.
  • Wild Chatter broke poorly, ran well to get into contention in the stretch, looked like a winner but drifted late.

May 27

  • Speed and pressers dominated most of the day
  • Red Lodge allowed Dangerous Dan to set the early fractions, collared that one out of the turn, and drew away sharply
  • Paige was well back, closed and just missed the place
  • Appealing Miss went right to the lead, was stubborn in the stretch in fast fractions, and was easily the best of the rest.
  • Lebowski broke poorly, moved up on the rail into contention, but had nothing left for the drive.
  • Deltalina sprinted to the front, ran fast fractions but still had enough to draw away in the stretch.

May 28

  • Runaway Lute ran under mild urging, extending his lead without being pushed to win by ten.

May 29

  • Polar Axis had the lead coming out of the turn, lost it momentarily, but drove back to get the place.
  • Feeling Bossy didn’t break sharply, was well back down the backstretch, worked to the outside, took the lead in the stretch and drew away by many.

May 30

  • Eye Luv Lulu broke slowly but tried hard to just miss the place.
  • Sea Pebble rushed to the front from the rail, lost the lead to the winner, but was very game in the stretch
  • Super Allison broke in the air, rushed up the rail, but could not sustain the run.

June 2

  • Dirt seemed to favor horses on or near the pace early, but big closers won the 8th race because the pace was atomic. Turf was fair.
  • Humboldt N Frost wired a field of cheaper claimers in a fast time and without extending himself.
  • She Doesn’t Mind broke in the air, relaxed at the back of the pack, was looking for running room when the rail opened up, closing in a hard drive for the place.
  • Dynamo Flotilla was dead last by 10 entering the stretch, found a slot on the rail and made a big rush to get the place.
  • Girl Talk broke in a tangle, was behind by 10 very quickly, rushed to catch the main pack, relaxed at the end of the pack, went very wide around the turn, closed well but could not catch the winner.
  • Arch Contender broke slowly and was well behind the field, pushed to gain contact with the main pack, and was closing willingly in the stretch.
  • Caldera was last down the backstretch, started to make a move going into the far turn, was caught behind a wall of horses at the top of the stretch but found a slot inside and closed best of all.

June 3

  • On the dirt horses on or near the lead had the advantage. The turf was fair.
  • Montauk Man broke slowly, trailed early, ran on his own courage closing some ground in the stretch.
  • Strike Midnight pressed the lead and finished strongly in a very good time

June 4

  • The dirt favored horses on or near the lead, with the exception of the first race which was dominated by closers. The turf was fair.
  • Seventhfleethumor was 10 back at the top of the stretch, closed strongly to finish second by half a length.
  • All Day Lawn walked out of the gate, rushed to press the leader, but could not sustain. Finished with some courage.
  • Achnaha closed into a dawdling pace and won going away
  • Regulus broke a step slow, too a few jumps to get into stride, rushed up to press the leader, was passed in the stretch but kept on running.
  • Toughest ‘Ombree went out to a long lead on fair fractions and hung tough in the stretch, almost catching the place at 99-1

June 5

  • The dirt was mainly favoring to horses on or near the pace. The turf was fair.
  • Inca Saint steadied at the start, rushed up the rail to press the leaders, moved to mid track but could not get through down the backstretch, finally swung outside but had nothing left for the drive.
  • Day After Day went out very fast, established a clear lead in the stretch and held it all the way to the wire.
  • Papa Freud set comfortable fractions at 76-1, finished well and just missed the place.
  • Enjoy Yourself was strangled early, fighting the bit around the clubhouse turn, settled just off the leader on the rail, and had no energy left for the drive. Would have like to have seen more, but worth consideration next out.
  • Norm the Giant checked hard at the start, moved up to a tracking position, ran on well in the stretch.

June 9

  • Know It All Anna was not ready for the start and banged against the gate, losing four lengths out of the gate. She rushed into contention, getting within a length and a half of the leader, but could not sustain the drive.
  • Celtic Chaos walked out of the gate, was 12 lengths out of the lead down the backstretch, went very wide around the turn while closing, losing by four and a half.

June 10

  • Bombs Away balked at the gate, expending quite a bit of energy, went right to the front, and never looked back.
  • Saratoga Two Step, an early speed horse, broke a step slow, tried circling the field but had no energy in the stretch.
  • Kareena destroyed a field of stakes fillies in a very fast time.
  • Ferocious Tiger broke well, was up with the leader, Said No One Ever, when that one bolted causing Ferocious Tiger to take up and lose ground. He made a move around the turn but was flat in the stretch.
  • Adulator took up at the break and wound up last by six. He looked to make a move up the rail around the turn, switched outside but did not have enough to get by the leader, losing the whole thing by a diminishing two lengths.

June 11

  • Closers seemed to have a advantage on the dirt and the turf.
  • Shaman Ghost unleashed a powerful run in the stretch to thump a strong Brooklyn Field.
  • Forever Unbridled was hopelessly blocked entering the stretch, finally found space and moved outside and finished second full of run.
  • Pure Sensation won a six furlong turf race wire to wire in track record time.
  • Celstine ran a hundredth of a second off the course record in running away with the Just a Game.
  • Frosted was absolutely dominant in winning the Met Mile in excellent time without being asked for his best.
  • Flintshire was powerful in winning the Manhattan in excellent time under steady urging.

June 12

  • Miss Amalita missed the start, rushed up to take the lead, but was not able to sustain in the stretch.
  • Flying K C broke well behind the field, made a rush to make contact, made progress up the backstretch, made a strong run in the stretch but fell short to finish second.
  • Dauphine Russe was shuffled back on the the backstretch, was blocked entering the stretch, finally found a lane to run, but checked close to the wire while between horses, losing the whole thing by a neck.

June 15

  • Today seemed like a fair day, with some speed horses and some closers winning.
  • Esther the Queen tracked a very fast pace set by  Animal Appeal, looked like she might hold second in the stretch, but was swallowed late.
  • Animal Appeal set blazing fractions and finished with good energy.
  • Drama King broke inward, righted himself, settled back in last, swung widest of all for the drive and finished full of run.

June 16

  • The track was generally fair, turf and dirt, with perhaps a slight advantage to pressers and trackers.
  • Zenna pressed off a decent pace, took the lead in the stretch and ran on well.

June 17

  • Speed and pressing horses seemed to have the advantage today.
  • Manifest Destiny went right to the front, was challenged most of the way around the track but drew off strongly in the stretch, winning by seven.
  • Katie O sprinted out to the lead early, repelled challenges coming out of the turn, could not hold off the winner, but ran determinedly to the wire.
  • Toledo Eddie stumbled out of the gate, ran to the front, tracked J S Bach in second, was headed at the top of the stretch, but battled to hold the place.
  • Dontbetwithbruno checked hard out of the gate and lost all chance. He ran with interest but was no match for the top horses.

June 18

  • Both the turf and dirt were slightly favorable to speed/presser types.
  • Master Merion sprinted to the front, was collared by the eventual winner at the top of the lane and the two  continued to draw away from the field in tandem.
  • Chelios battled for the lead down the backstretch, took command entering the turn, was overtaken by the winner at the eighth pole, but continued on gamely, clearly the best of the rest.
  • Big Mara had to steady early down the backstretch, straightened out, circled the field around the turn and made a strong sustained move to win by two.
  • Super Allison walked out of the gate, made contact with the main pack quickly, and made a long sustained move to win by a head.
  • Zennor had a nice rail trip while tracking in fourth, was blocked looking for room at the eighth pole, found a seam and was outfinished by the winner.
  • Maybry’s Conquest took a clear lead, was well ahead of the field and with 100 yards to go veered into the rail and went down.

June 19

  • Generally horses on or near the pace on both turf and dirt did the best.
  • Cosmic Thunder was well back early, looked for room entering the stretch, had to swing outside but finished strongly in hand.
  • Norm the Giant got off to a slow beginning, was 12 lengths behind early, made a furious close to nab the place and was getting to the winner late.
  • Alabama Bound went right to the front, was challenged hard by Kundray in the stretch, held that one safe but was nipped by fast closing Kat Zippity.
  • Kat Zippity broke slowly, was last early, made a furious close to nail the win.

June 22

  • The dirt seemed to favor speed, the turf was kinder to closers.
  • Regulus was very wide throughout the race but looked strong closing against a wire to wire winner
  • Miss Aja Brown was rank down most of the backstretch, went wide around the turn and closed well to gain the win by the slimmest of margins.
  • Touching My Toes was in a hard battle for the lead, continued on strong, was not enough for the winner but was the best of the rest.

June 23

  • Horses on or near the lead had the advantage on the dirt and turf.
  • Imslopokerodriguez dominated a field in fast time

June 24

  • Horses on or near the lead had an advantage today on the dirt. The turf played fair.
  • Mary Pray for Us walked out of the gate but made an effort  and eventually made contact with the main pack.
  • Proud Zip was blocked through most of the stretch but closed willingly once he got clear.
  • End Play set a brisk pace, moved away in the stretch, but was caught late by a deep closing Altar Boy.
  • Take These Chains broke a step slow, lagged behind early, swung well wide on the turn and closed powerfully to get the win.
  • Half Irish set all the fractions, carried on well in the stretch, and barely missed the place

June 25

  • Both the dirt and the turf played generally fair.
  • Beneficial Risk broke poorly, made a move to contact the main pack but came up empty in the stretch
  • Kasseopia sprinted out to a clear lead on the backstretch, took a breather, was caught at the top of the stretch and faded steadily through the stretch
  • Lotta Gold tried to make a move on the inside going around the turn, had to back up, but found a lane in the stretch and closed willingly.
  • Wavell Avenue didn’t have a great amount of pace to run at, was in position to close in the stretch but couldn’t get to the winner

June 26

  • The dirt and the turf were generally fair.
  • Verve’s Tale and Opined both broke slowly. Opined tried rushing  to the front but wasn’t able to challenge the winner. Verve’s Tale rallied and was getting to the winner at the end.
  • Portando set all the fractions but was swept up by the winner in the last 16th.


June 30

  • On the dirt, horses on or near the lead had the advantage. On the turf it was a little more fair but still seemed to favor horses near the pace.
  • Sabrina Ballerina quickly moved to the lead, was pushed by Grassarla, but drew away smartly in the stretch in good time.
  • Ascend was last early, closed well in the stretch and into a fairly slow pace to miss by only a length.
  • Even Bette was at least 16 lengths out of the lead heading into the turn, closed steadily to be only about 11 out entering the stretch, found her best stride and flew by all by the top two to grab the place.
  • Roca Roja fought the bit hard early while being wrangled back to last, finally settled, starting moving on the far outside and closed powerfully down the stretch.

July 1

  • Once again it appeared that horses on or near the pace had an advantage.
  • Everybodyluvsrudy was well back coming into the stretch, made a very strong close to grab the second spot.
  • For Later walked out of the gate, settled in last, well behind the field, made a steady gain around the turn while widest of all, swept into the lead at the eighth pole and drew away to win by three and a half.
  • Sweetgrass allowed Piccolo Flats to go off to a long lead, caught that one just before entering the stretch, and drew away under a hand ride, finishing the final sixteenth in 6.34 seconds.
  • Now Power sprinted out to the lead, lost to a fast closing Akatea, but dug in strong to hold off the rest of the field.

July 2

  • The track seemed to be fair for the dirt, perhaps slightly favoring off the pace horses. The turf was a little kinder to the early speed types, with a mixture of winning types.
  • My Sweet Girl made a powerful close late to win the Perfect Sting.
  • Off the Tracks was a strong wire to wire winner in the Mother Goose, running the last 3/16 in 31.39 while being geared down late.

July 3

  • The dirt ran fairly. The turf seemed kind to speed, although closing horses were able to make an impact in some races.
  • Blenheim Prince was never a threat to the winner but she made up six lengths in the stretch and galloped out strongly. Might be looking for more distance.
  • Unbridled Courage took the lead soon after the start, was hooked by the 4/5 winner coming out of the turn, but never gave an inch, losing in a head bob.
  • Hot Dudette went right to the lead, repelled the challenges, but never had a chance to outfinish the winner that came from well back.

July 4

  • None of the dirt races were won wire-to-wire or by a well off the pace closer. All dirt races were won by presser types. The turf was very favorable to early speed horses, with two wire to wire winners, three early speed horses and only one that came from off the pace.
  • Bustin Hearts took the lead soon out of the gate and came within a head bob of holding off the winner in a fairly average time for the price level.
  • Encrypt broke awkwardly, was back early, circled the field, closed past the place horse but was no threat to the winner.

July 8

  • On the dirt horses on or near the pace seemed to have the advantage. The turf appeared fair.
  • Wake up in Malibu ran some fast fractions and drew away from the field.

July 9

  • The inside seemed to be the deeper going on the dirt, with rail horses finding it hard to hold leads or close. The turf seemed fine for speed, generally fair.
  • Maura’s Pass hopped at the start, was well back down the backstretch, circled the field around the turn and steadily closed by the field.
  • Adulator ran another good race, this time tracking the speed in second and closing on the less preferable inside, losing it all by a head bob.
  • Caldera made a strong close after some fairly pedestrian fractions, losing to front-runner favorite Revved Up.
  • Disco Partner almost went down to his knees at the start, wound up near the back of the pack down the backstretch, worked his way to the outside for the stretch run but didn’t quite have enough to get to the wire to wire winner.
  • Economic Model tried to close on a dead rail, but could not make headway until he switched outside, losing it all by a length and a quarter.
  • Samraat was on the inside leading until the stretch, moved slightly off the rail but could not hold off Samraat.
  • Private Zone was a little rank on the lead early, settled on the inside, but had nothing left in the stretch.

July 10

  • The turf seemed kind to front runners. On the dirt horses generally stayed a little off the rail, but horses on or near the lead did well.
  • Imperia was trapped behind horses coming into the stretch after tracking a dawdling pace, found a lane and would have won the race in another jump.

Belmont April 29

Race 1.     1-4-7

The entry of Blarney Stones and Game of Stones looks as good as anything in this race. I think the latter might be the better of the two, but in the event of a scratch, I’d be ok including whichever was left. In his last race Game of Stones broke last out of the gate and made steady progress while on the rail but could not outclose the top two. He was sent off as the favorite in that race and with a better trip today he has a good chance of topping the field.  Miroc looked good in straight maidens but apparently didn’t take to the inner at all. He’s got plenty of front running ability and is taking a pretty substantial drop from his 2015 races. Last year’s numbers dominate the field. Our Ben’s Brush showed speed in his debut and should improve with that start under his belt. El Genio established a clear lead last time and gave it up badly in the stretch – it’s a familiar pattern. However, he is 12 of 14 in the money and that can make him worth a look in the verticals.

Race 2.     8-9-2-6

Wild Bella is the morning line favorite on the strength of her close fourth in her NY debut. Wasn’t quite as fast as her CA races, but was still competitive. Should be the strongest of the late runners. The down side – she’s not cracked the winner’s circle in two years. If she goes off at the ML odds it doesn’t look like she would be value. Tepid choice for me. More Than Rainbows has primarily been a dirt runner, but her breeding is decent for the turf and she does have a win on the grass. Her last race gave her an eye-catching figure. At 20-1 she can be used in the verticals. Jenny’s Creek has the advantage of being a turf horse, but she is a little iffy in the top spot given 12 seconds and thirds against two wins in 28 starts. Wraith was claimed last out by Gary Contessa and the horse has run pretty consistent figures. Only has one non-descript turf race but the breeding suggests she should adapt to the surface.

Race 3.     1-4-3

Augie’s Coming should be the front runner and puts the blinkers on today. Fits the conditions and has competitive numbers. Danny Gargan has cracked the code this year – he’s got a 33% rate. Shadow Rider has been off seven months but prior to the layoff he won a race at the distance and was one out of two at Belmont. In his last race – his first with winners – he prompted the pace on the outside all the way and gradually faded in the stretch. In his defense, Send It In was a powerful winner and nobody was beating that horse today. Should have a good stalking position. Union River is 10 of 15 in the money but with only one win. Looks solid in the verticals, a little iffier in the win slot.

Race 4.     8-11-10

Same Kinda Crazy lost all chance at the break last out in the mud but in her maiden debut she showed decent speed. She actually made a really nice middle move around the turn while wide the entire time. She actually passed a number of horses going into the turn to the stretch – really a great angle. She hasn’t been on the turf, but  in these sprints turf breeding is less important. She’s 10-1 on the ML and has plenty of outs. Ragazza Di Papa showed two decent races on the turf last year and her numbers from last year should improve this time around. If she comes out running she’ll be tough to beat. Bea Bea has a good race on the BEL turf and Violette is good off the layoff.

Race 5.     1-3-8

Animal Appeal goes for Englehart who is 41% off the layoff. She wired a field at BEL last year in a good time. Nice workout pattern for the return. Looks the best of the horses with turf experience. Hillaryinthehouse is another coming off the layoff for a good layoff trainer. Always gives a good effort and has competitive figures. Hush Now has done more running on the dirt, but her three turf races have been consistently good. Should be prompting the pace. Bush layoff horses haven’t been great, but she did run decently in her 2015 debut off the layoff.

Race 6.     6-4-3

North Slope comes out of a restricted stakes back to the claiming ranks. His last race figure is easily the best and if he runs back to either of his last two he should grab the top spot. Inca Saint just missed at this distance last out and makes a slight step up for this start. Perhaps a little ambitious given his wins have been for $25K or less, but looks to be in his best condition. Winter Games has been claimed for this price last two times out and almost comes into the is one with two wins in a row. No reason to expect less than a top effort here.

Race 7.     2-7-6-3

Neck of the Moon has two seconds in three tries at the distance, and has shown an affinity for the BEL turf.  Has run well off the layoff previously and has Chad Brown doing the training. Always hard to ignore a turf mare trained by Brown. Rumble Doll is 3 of 3 in the money at the distance and 5 of 5 in the money over the BEL turf. Her figures should keep that in the money record intact. The Clement runners Rose Et Or and Stormy Victoria both had success in Europe and Clement is a solid 19% with first time runners in the states. Stormy Victoria looks like the better of the two for me.

Race 8.     3-1-2-8

This is a really tough race so I’m looking for a horse at the right price and that is Ostralenka. He’s 4 of 5 at BEL; in fact that’s the only track he’s won over. That’s a good angle in itself, but he’s also at his best running with NY breds. BEL figures punctuate the pick. Drama King was riding a three race win streak, including a state bred stakes, before flopping in a non conditioned allowance. I think he gets back on track today. I’m giving an in the money spot to Weekend Hideaway. He’s not a need to lead sort, but should be in a good striking position. Has a couple of wins at Belmont and the distance. Eye Luv Lulu easily won the non conditioned allowance race three weeks ago and he looks to be in good form. Can’t discount.

Race 9.     4-12-11-9

The closer goes to Wake Up Smiling. His 2015 figures top this field and she should improve from last year. Both races were at this distance and at BEL. Switched to the Linda Rice barn and she is 33% with her new charges. Somerset Sandy also has two good races and gets first Lasix. Another that should improve over last year’s numbers and that gives her a good chance to get the win. Lady’s First has a competitive turf race last year and the workouts suggest she’ll be ready. Pira had a troubled start in her maiden voyage, but still managed to show interest, passing 8 horses. Could be any kind and worth a long look today.

Aqueduct April 24

Race 1.     6-5-3

Make Your Point just won at the NW3 level and the slight price drop should leave him at an equivalent class.  Figures put her on top. Mastic goes first of the claim for Michelle Nevin and she is a solid 22%. Should improve with the cutback in distance. Ferzetti has been knocking at this level a while. She seems to like the AQU main and her last race number puts her in the mix.

Race 2.     2-8-9

Indygo Tigress should be the front runner here. She is bred average for the turf, so we’ll see if she takes to it. Johnny V gets aboard and that is a positive. Antebellum drops out of MSW and is one of the few in here with a  solid turf race. Eqho is well bred for the turf and goes first time for Robert Ribaudo. I like that Jose Ortiz takes the mount.

Race 3.     2-6-1

Bust Another comes out of OC$80K races. He’s been much improved since Michael Pino took over training duties. I think he moves up successfully today. Dr. Shane has been competitive with statebred stakes horses for a while and has the numbers to be a major factor here. Sudden Surprise flopped in his effort with open stakes company, but he’s back with statebreds today. His record there is outstanding.

Race 4.     2-6-4

Break Away has had trouble finding the winner’s circle but Contessa is dropping the horse to its lowest level. Last race was a decent run and she has competitive turf numbers. Gimme Jimmy is another that  has trouble crossing the wire first, but she is competitive, rarely finishing too far behind. On a field where there are a lot of weak NW2 horses, she may finally break through. Elementsofharmony should be the speed of the field and has three turf figures that would easily win the race.  The odds don’t look like value, but she can’t be ignored.

Race 5.     8-2-3-9

Spring On Curlin had a troubled start but ran evenly throughout. He was bet last time and with a better start could be way better than his 10-1 ML odds. Onlytheshadowknows has shown good speed in his two starts and takes the blinkers off today. Competitive numbers. Travis County adds Lasix and McLaughlin is 24% with second time starters. Gorgeous Charli had a troubled start last out, rushed up with the leaders and faded. A clean start may mean a better trip.

Race 6.     2-3-4

Cliffs of Dover has a number of figures that would win in this field. Deserved favorite. Brimstone has only been on the turf once but he earned a good figure and lately has run some good races. Could be good value by post time. Coco is Loco won his turf debut, flopped on the inner, but is back on the grass today. Winning jockey Irad is back on board.

Race 7.     6-7-8

This race is super competitive, and you could make a case for almost any horse. Draxhall Woods comes out of the Peeping Tom where he race a close third. Won at this level two back and seems to enjoy winning. Hector’s Pride looks like the speed of the speed and is dropping out of the Kelly Kip. Seems to be in top shape. Monty Haul was claimed by David Cannizzo last out by had recently beaten $40K. Competitive off his best race.

Race 8.     5-4-6

Time and Motion is the clear fastest in the field. Just won her maiden in her 2016 debut but ran commendably in the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf. Ready to break through. Enjoy Yourself comes out of the Florida Oaks and has competitive numbers. Great value if she goes off near her 8-1 ML. Pricedtoperfection just beat a Grade 3 field and has the always dangerous Chad Brown in her corner. Certainly would be no surprise.

Race 9.     13-7-8

Very difficult race, mostly because no horse stands out. Bustin Aces has the best speed and her figures are competive. Show Giant has been running decently as this level, but will need to improve to get to the wire first. Better than her 12-1 odds. Double Mane is another that has been close in her races with no luck getting to the wire first. Still, in this field, it may be her day.

Aqueduct April 23

Race 1.     6-5-4

First race is a statebred maiden claimer and the choices are limited. In Condition looks like he has by far the best speed and his 2YO figure is almost as good as others 3YO figures. Like the angle. Excluded ran pretty well in his 2016 debut and with any improvement is a prime contender. Fleeting Gold has been working on breaking his maiden this year and may pick up some pieces.

Race 2.     2-5-1

Longfor the City had trouble at the start in his last race so throw that one out. Ru Rod moved him up after claiming him for $25K and drops him to his lowest level today. Should be winging on the front and may be hard to catch. Pass the Dice is the other Ru Rod entrant and he comes off a narrow win at this level. On his best day he’s right in the mix. Luckbox Sam jumps up to $20K. He’s been in good shape but faces a stern test today.

Race 3.     4-10-2-12

This is a competitive affair, and like most of the early turf races there are a number of horses with no turf form. I’ll go with Moegan Avenue who has three nice races in a row and has a good mix of speed and stay. He’s been dropping in price looking for the win and may be in the right spot today. Datamining drops from MSW to this claiming spot. I like horses coming off the FG turf. You can toss his last race, and his turf figures are right there. Liam’s Prince is making his 10th start looking for a win. Has the talent, but needs to show he has the heart. Im a Prankster has shown speed in his races, and may be able to hold it off the price drop.

Race 4.     7-6-3

In Spite of Mama tries NW1X for the first time. She blew away a statebred field of optional claimers on the inner and went in a state-bred stakes where she showed well to the stretch. May be the value in the race. Literata just won a non-conditioned state-bred allowance and rarely throws in a bad race. Flick of an Eye has the best last race figure but has been trying to crack the winner’s circle at this level for a while.

Race 5.     12-2-7-11

Startup Nation was running mainly in graded races the last two years and has the dominant turf figures. I’d be a lot more concerned if Chad Brown wasn’t the trainer. If he’s in condition he looks like the best horse. Glowing Ember has been running well at this level, although he does seem to be a little fainthearted when the running really starts. Still, he’s got speed and he is 12-1 on the ML. Mark My Style finished second at this level last out and has competitive numbers. Front finished just behind Mark My Style two back and could turn the tables today.

Race 6.     9-4-1

This is a pretty bad field, but somebody still has to win. Ideal Quality was claimed at this price, jumped up to $25K, and is back at this level today. If he runs to his best figure, he’s as good as any in here. Touchdown looks like the speed and puts the blinkers on today. Last race is a toss, but the one before was good enough to win this one. Andrew’s Got Zip has had trouble finding the winner’s circle but has figures that could put him in the verticals.

Race 7.     2-6-7

Highland Sky is the interesting horse here. He made a big close in the BC Juvenile Turf. He came back in a restricted stakes to finish second and seems primed for a good effort today. Highly Prized is better than his 12-1 odds. He broke his maiden at first asking when shipped to the states, and has run two decent races since. His figures suggest he’s not that far out of it. Unbridled Daddy easily won his 2016 debut and ran well in a Grade 2 at the Spa. He looks primed to run well today.

Race 8.     8-3-2

Behrnik’s Bank destroyed two fields at Penn National and nearly won a version of the NYS Stallion Series in December. Workout pattern is ordinary, but she did win he debut by open lengths. Frosty Margarita was the one who beat the top choice last year.  She’s never finished worse than second in her life and you bet against her at your own peril. Libreta has some decent races and may make the vertical.

Race 9.     8-4-10

The closer is a total mess of a race. Baldonnel gets the nod for a couple of reasons. He’s been gelded since his last and I like his late October Belmont race. He’s making a big drop from his last two races at AQU and moves to the Contessa barn for this start. At the odds may be value. Momma’s Mark hasn’t won since the middle of last year, but does have some recent turf form. Prospects here. Geo Niko broke his maiden two back and should be in a good striking position turning for home. His win gave him a good figure and if he duplicates it he’s a contender.

Aqueduct April 22

Race 1.     6-1-3-4

Sunny Puzzle was claimed by Englehart for $25K, jumped up to a couple of $50K races, then dropped way back to $14K in his last. He looked heartless in the stretch, but in the last race he won he nearly wired a field. He drops back in distance today, and that is in his favor. Like his chances at the odds. Global Positioning should be winging from the one post. Jacobson drops the horse in half after a decent showing with $35K horses, but this is a typical move for him. Jackson P just missed at this level last out and it looks like one of the potential front runners. Sherifco won last out with slightly higher and should get first run at the leaders.

Race 2.     5-1-2

American Creed is 14 of 18 in the money at this distance. He’s had pretty consistent figures and often when DJ drops them he is serious about looking for the win. Attractive Ride was claimed last out by good percentage claiming trainer Michael Pino. This 10 year old makes his 92nd start today and is winning at over a 25% clip. As long as he keeps running you have to keep using him. Tairneach comes of a long layoff for Danny Gargan, who is an excellent 27% with long layoff horses. He’s shown he can run well fresh and makes a substantial drop today. May go favorite and has every right to win, but the odds don’t look that appealing.

Race 3.     7-5-4

Chairman Now has the best last race figure and is riding a two race win streak. Sticking with today’s old guy theme, he’s another one of those horses that always seems to give an honest effort. Now We Are Free is an off the pace horse that has a tendency to be around at the end of races. Likes the AQU dirt and has done well at the distance. Coming off a good run and looks very useful here. Heady Creek is coming off a win at $14K but given it was conditioned he’s not really making a drop. Still, he should be competitive here.

Race 4.     4-3-5-6

Dia de Encanta has been off since last July. In his one dirt race she ran well and comes back today at a lower price. Her dirt race had a figure as good as anything in here, and she may wind up being some value. Addibel Lightning is dropping out of MSW and only making her third start. Danny Gargan takes over training duties and he is 27% first time with a horse. She should compete with this group. Bustin Aces should be most of the speed early and if she is not challenged she could be dangerous. Trapper Jane takes the blinkers off and drops down from $40K. That makes her worth considering.

Race 5.     5-6-4-9

All Over Me has been competitive in his last eight races. I’m not sure why Maker feels a need to bring him back off a win only six days ago, but if he goes he has to be respected. Goodtolook was taken last out by David Cannizzo. His turf races have been very good and if he runs back to them he should be very competitive. Elroi seems more interested in finishing in the money, but the figures suggest he’s got outs today. Comes from far out of it but there should be enough speed to potentially give him a setup. East Bay Lodge is another off the pace horse with consistent numbers.

Race 6.     2-7-3

Wolf Letter has one race where she won powerfully wire to wire. Should be at the right level today for her first with winners and any improvement makes her even stronger. Army Brat just broke her maiden and was claimed by Michelle Nevin. She had been with better in her first two and if she is topping her form cycle, she could give the top choice all she can handle. Our Whim plunges in price today. She certainly has races that would put her right with the top two. Worth considering.

Race 7.     5-1-6

Cracking Good Pins comes off a win at GP and tries the AQU turf for the first time. Figures look good, but there are a number in here without current turf form who could surprise. Still, best to go with the horses that have current form. Chow Fun had some good turf runs before trying the inner dirt. Has two wins in six tries at AQU. Wild Bella ships over from the west coast for DJ. Irad signs on for the ride and he should have her setting the pace. Hasn’t won in a while and maybe the change of venue will do the trick.

Race 8.     3-6-7

Yakov looks like the best early speed and seems best suited for the mile distance. Has two seconds in three tries at AQU. Edge Ridge actually takes a drop moving into the state-bred ranks. He looks like he is on the improve and the field is weak enough that he has a real chance. Clifton Pleasure will be coming in the stretch. He has been running well for a while and his last was better than looked.

Race 9.     4-3-7

Adirondack Luck drops out of a MSW for this $40K affair. Really the only one with any real turf form, but not so solid you can take 9/5. Saratoga by Design should be the one setting the pace and if she can recapture her form from last you she’s a contender. Justenufflaughter has been knocking around at the maiden level for a while. But in her six maiden races she has been second in half of them. In a weak field she’s got a chance.

Aqueduct April 21

Race 1.     4-5-3

It’s another two year old race and this time Silver Mission is the Pletcher/Velasquez entry.  Enough said. Lethal Shot goes for low profile connections but gets Jose Ortiz. 24% trainer Phil Schoenthal sends Fuhrlong off a good workout pattern in Maryland.

Race 2.     6-7-1

Congrats Kid is not the sort I normally gravitate toward, but given he was claimed by Asmussen two back he gets a chance to improve enough to hit the wire first. Best figure of all the horses that have started. Whereas Willy drops in price quite a bit for this start and turns back to a slightly shorter race. His numbers aren’t that far off the top choice. The Rudy Rodriguez entry are both first timers, but I like the prep he’s done. He’s one of the better trainers with first timers at AQU.

Race 3.     3-2-6

Valkimqua drops back to the right price after trying a little tougher. Blinkers go on today and Englehart has had some small success with that move. Off her best she looks like the winner. Sweet Peaches just won on the AQU main and Gargan brings her back at the right price. She’s been with better in the past and may be on the upswing. Lucky Boots tries this level for the second time. May be a little underlayed at 5/2 but can’t be discounted.

Race 4.    4-6-5

Ginned Up is one of only a couple with turf experience. She’s got by far the top figure and has to get the nod in the absence of any other with current form. Votre Coeur goes first time on the turf for Chad Brown. Brown is dynamite with turf fillies and no doubt he’ll have her ready to run. Feeling Bossy comes off a decent effort last out at GP and adds blinkers today. Johnny V gets aboard and that can’t hurt.

Race 5.     2-5-4

Natalie Victoria is hard to pick against here, She has a series of figures that would easily win this race, and she has enough speed to to be a factor on the pace. She’s dropping down the price ladder substantially from her last two, but considering RuRod claimed her for $20K and got a win out of her, maybe it’s not so negative. Still, she’s 0 for 9 at AQU and that is at least a small concern, Littlemissperfect closed in her last to win comfortably, That represents Andrew Lakeman’s only win in 2015 so far. Jose Ortiz returns for the ride and that is a positive. Just Got Out failed in the mud last out but she was over her head. Back at the right price today.

Race 6.     5-1-6

Is She Hot has the best speed by far and if she gets off to a leisurely pace she may be hard to catch. Lotsa Noodles exits the same race as a few of these. She’s been claimed a few times in the last five months, and she has a number of back figures that would dominate this field. After Barrera took her he took the blinkers off but puts them back on today. That may just focus the horse more. Just Catty ran evenly last out and won last time she was at this level. Serious contender.

Race 7.     2-3-8

Jademarie’s one victory came on the turf and her last race is much better than looked. Her current form is ambiguous – she’s been racing with tougher although not really showing her best. I like the chances but at 2-1 I’m not seeing value. Weekend Score was a flop on the inner, but has a number of nice turf efforts in her past. Looks like she’ll need to clear early to have a real shot here. Light Years Away may be the best of the early speed, and from the outside post will have to move early to get position. Maybe a little ambitiously placed but she could make one of the verticals if she comes in.

Race 8.     1-7-9

Super Sharp ships to AQU from LRL. I like a couple of things about the horse. First she’s been running mostly in open company and drops into a state-bred NW1X today. She is likely the best speed in this race, and her latest figures are very competitive. Finally, Jose Ortiz takes the mount. Taken by Surprise goes for Pletcher and she has a win over the AQU main. First time she’s gone with older horses, so she’ll have to be on top of her game to succeed today. Quibbler is taking a pretty good jump up today but does own the best last race figure. Worth considering in the verticals.

Race 9.     5-4-1-9

In the Beat was claimed last out by Gary Gullo and he is 26% first off the claim.  The horse comes back at the same level as his last winning effort. Will need to get into a good striking position early. Ground Control gets Irad back for this trip. Wasn’t disgraced on the inner track routes, but will likely be better at this distance. The Jacobson entry of Castaway and Syndicated both look competitive in here. March Too has the fastest last race figure and can’t be discounted.

Aqueduct April 20

Race 1.     4-5-1

Early season two year old race, We’re looking for a horse that looks like the clear front  runner. So Fancy looks bred for the sprint and Ru Rod is one of the two trainers who have had success with first timers. Lady Stardust is the ML favorite and has some impressive drills. Big Hay Alice has two quick works in a row. Contessa has not been impressive with first timers, but in a five horse field…

Race 2.     6-8-2

John Eddie looks like the best speed in the race and is making a slight drop off the claim by Contessa. Takes the blinkers off today. Caelifera ran a decent race when moved from the inner to the main. Blinkers go on today. Shipsandgoods showed very little in his first two starts but is dropping from MSW. A couple of good works and maybe he’s ready to turn it around.

Race 3.     5-1-3

Another short field. Trophee is coming off three graded starts in a row and close to four months rest. Two seconds in two starts on the AQU turf. Off her best she’s the fastest. Carnevale came off a 10 month layoff to run well at this level at GP. Figures in the U.S. are improved over Europe, and perhaps that was the Lasix, but she looks plenty fast enough to be a factor. Queen’s Parade has been in the money in all but one of her last eight. Competes well at the level.

Race 4.     5-3-2

Liberty Fuze was outclassed in the Videogenic, but is at the right level today. Has speed and has an impressive win percentage. Aix En Provence just won for slightly higher on the inner and is competitive with these when in shape. Time for Angie was riding a five race winning streak before finishing second last out. Her best wins this race. 1 for 1 on the AQU main.

Race 5.     4-2-1

Truth ran a bang-up race first time out and looks to be the best sped here. Last race figure dominates. Lead Along has had a couple of troubled trips but has shown stout closing ability. Well bred for the turf and the distance. Conquest Lucknlove is the Chad Brown entrant, She’s another with speed and ran well in her first race this year. No surprise if she wins this one.

Race 6.     8-1-6

Blarney Stones should be the leader early and took well to the AQU main. Figure is competitive as well. Our Viking has been improving with each start and at 15-1 deserves a serious look. Here Comes R J ran pretty well in his last and is another one seeming to be improving.

Race 7.     2-1-8

Quaralia only has two starts but looks well suited to the turf and the distance. She’s one of the few with turf experience. No lock, but hard to figure which other horse might take to the turf as well. Dreams to Reality has the best figures on the dirt and is coming out of the grade 2 Gaselle where she ran an evenly fourth. Breeding not outstanding for the turf but has a turfer’s closing kick. Little Bear Cat looks like the speed of the race but takes a jump up. Speed is always dangerous though and at 15-1 she might be worth a look.

Race 8.     3-1-2

Fair Point has only been out of the money once lifetime. Her lifetime top competes in this group. Last time she came off the layoff she was a winner. Sweetrayofsunshine has three wins and two seconds in her last five. Her lifetime top overwhelms this field. Should be in a good tracking position. Picture Day was claimed last out by Michael Pino who is 24% first off the claim. Won her last out in a good time and should be contending at the end.

Race 9.     2-5-10

Tough closing event. Smokey Brown has been on a roll lately with two wins and a place in his last three. Moves up in price, but figures are competitive. Mambo At the Gym has a second on the AQU turf and was close at this level last out. Doesn’t have a great turf record, but did seem to take to AQU. Mr. Canada has some decent efforts on the turf and could be the surprise in this field.

Aqueduct April 10

Great card yesterday at AQU. Today, not as much. Given the moisture yesterday, I’m not holding out great hope for races staying on the turf.

Race 1      5-1-2

Legend of Lorelei finally broke her maiden in her 9th try. She looks like the most likely front runner and that maiden race gave her a nice figure. Looks to be in top shape. Majesticconfection broke her maiden for $30K and jumped up a little in her next two and really ran respectably. Figures suggest as long as she can get good early position she is a major contender. Love You Babe broke her maiden at this price, went over her head for the next three, and drops way back today. That should be in her favor.

Race 2      2-4-1

She’s All Even will likely go favorite off the strength of her speed and current condition. Looks like lone front here. Ferzetti was claimed two back by Patrick Reynolds and finished a good second toHarlan Belle who won her next out. She’ll need her best to run by the top choice. Reign won her second at this price, jumped up in price and flopped after have a little bit of gate trouble. Back at the right price today.

Race 3      3-5-4

Mei Ling easily wired a field last out in a good time. Should be the front speed, but may get pushed by Noble Beauty. Wet track record suggests an advantage if the moisture stays. Carrumba just missed in the Comely after bobbling at the start. She’ll be the favorite and deservedly so. No surprise if she wins. Saythreehailmary’s has been competitive for a while with state-bred stakes runners and won a restricted stakes in the slop in January. Could surprise at a price.

Race 4      3-1-8-2

Lead Along came from off the pace in her two GP starts and looks to be eligible for improvement today. I like the figures and Mott horses often take a race or two to hit their best stride. Conquest Lucknlove goes second time at a turf route for Chad Brown. Nearly wired a field last time, but if the race stays on the turf, she may not have as easy a time on the front end. Gioia Stella has two strong seconds in her first two starts and has the figures to match the top two. Can’t discount. Lemondrop Lollipop has one good turf start and it was on the AQU turf. Condition off the races on the inner should be good. Has some outs.

Race 5      2-6-5

Mahabodhi Tree has a tough name to pronounce but should be primed  off his inner dirt starts. Should be the one to catch. Going for Broke is a first timer for Chad Brown and he is still an impressive 20% with debut runners. Workouts look typical for Brown and the horse should come out running. Liana Star has been searching for a maiden win for five tries, but just can’t seem to hold together in the stretch. This race may be his best shot to turn things around.

Race 6      Turf: 4-11-2-3      Dirt: 14-7-13

Race 7      4-1-5

Toledo Eddie has four wire jobs in a row. He’s the best speed in here, enjoys a track with moisture, and has improved by leaps since moving to the Jacobson barn. The one to catch. Unbridled Juan has nothing but in the money finishes in his career. Hard trying horse should be the main competition. Farhaan jumps up a little in price, but has been running well lately. McLaughlin seems to have him headed in a good direction.

Race 8      8-5-4-3

Takeover Target has run six graded stakes in a row, winning two and being close in the others. 1 for 1 at the distance, has the right style, and figures are competitive. Macagone is well meant at the mile and has the best last race figure. Big shot here if he can control the pace. Lubash is a steady runner and has run well off the layoff previously. Turned 9 this year, so we’ll see if father time is catching up with him. Fredericksburg seems to have trouble cracking the winner’s circle but he fits with this group. Maybe in the verticals.

Race 9      1-6-7

Bonita Luna ran well from the rail in last week’s one turn mile. Should have things her own way up front today. Could be a nice price at post time. Guyana has been with better lately. Was great last year, starting a little slower this year. Levine usually improves second off a layoff. Familyofroses seems to be another with some hesitancy to pass horses in the lane. Still, she’s better than 50% in the money and is making a steep drop today. That may be enough to put her close at the wire.