10 Hogy is a veteran sprinter. Since he is a strong closer, the post position is of little concern. It looks to me like he has enough talent and speed to challenge for the win.
1 Disco Partner has had an exceptional year, with four wins in five races. May not be fast enough to get the right position in such a short race.
3 Lady Aurelia ran a very good race in the Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes. She had a clear lead in that no-turn race and lost by the slimmest of margins. She’s proven against males, and it looks like five furlongs a good distance for her.
6 Marsha only has two wins this year, one the aforementioned Coolmore Nunthorpe, but has consistently been in the top three finishers. Possible.
Race 6 Filly and Mare Sprint
This is a very competitive race with at least seven horses generating interest. I’m leaning toward 9 Finley’sluckycharm. She’s been first or second in all but one race. She’s shown great speed and has a win in two tries at the distance. Strong possibilities.
11 Unique Bella is the likely favorite and would be no surprise in the win slot. However, the 9/5 odds are making me look elsewhere for a win bet.
8 Constellation has had four seconds in four races this year. That was enough to move the horse from Hollendorfer to Baffert. I’m going to suggest that move is a enough to make the horse a major contender.
The strategy is to figure out if there is any horse that can beat 2 Defrong. While Defrong hasn’t lost a race since 2015 (throw out the race where he lost his jockey) and nobody has been very close. The only horse that I thought could give him trouble was 7 Takaful. He’s got plenty of speed and should be the one to catch.
8 Roy H is second choice on the Morning Line, a bit of a surprise to me. Still, he’s had success in graded races and his race in the True North might have beat all of these.
10 Imperial Hint is 4 for 4 this year, but I don’t think he’s in quite the same class as the first two, but he’s shown plenty of talent.
Backhole horses: 3 American Pastime, 8 Ransom the Moon.
Race 9 Turf Mile
As the turf races get longer the Euros look better. In the turf mile 10 Ribchester looks best. He’s got multiple G1 wins and excellent pace figures.
5 World Approval is 2 for 2 since moving to the mile distance. That’s enough to put him in the exacta.
2 Heart to Heart has the top pace figure and would be no surprise.
10 Pavel. Watch the video of his last race. He gave 100% to stay near one of the best closers, Keen Ice and was making up ground on the winner Diversify. If anyone can pull off the big upset it’s Doug O’Neill.
5 Gun Runner has simply run the best pace figure of any horse in the 2017 BC. Can’t ignore that number.
8 West Coast is this year’s Arrogate. He should be at the top of his game and is every bit as tough as Arrogate.
1 Arrogate hasn’t looked nearly as spectacular as he did through the Dubai World Cup, but he’s still Arrogate and he’s still dangerous.