We’re back on the main. This is usually an unsettled period. Horses who like the inner don’t always adapt to the main and vice versa, so it may take some time for the form to settle in. I usually look for horses that have previously done well on the main and seem to be in condition. Today doesn’t look like a great betting day – there’s only one race with more than 7 horses. In some of the races there will be big favorites getting bet because the alternatives seem worse. Just step carefully today.
Race 1. 3-2
Not a great race to kick-off the spring meet. There are five horses, all of which seem to prefer running to the front. Possetano Prince only has five races and all have been on the inner. He was claimed last out by Bruce Brown and jumps up a level. I like the change to Cornelio and he has the look of a horse that can improve. The Great Whiteway has four wins in nine starts, and is the only horse with multiple wins. He’s been knocking around at this class level for a while, and is riding a three race streak. He should be bet down heavily.
Race 2. 3-4-2
Pranzare is listed at 8/5 in the program, but it’s not like she’s been running lights out. She has been running with better, and she has the look of a horse that should take better to the sprint distance. Top choice but I’m not delirious about her. Morethanjusthello is dropping from MSW down to a claimer and puts the blinkers on. Another ambiguous horse that will get bet and we’ll see if the drop gets her to the winners circle. Archie’s Girl was claimed last out by Jermiah Englehart after running a decent race in her maiden. Causeway Cutie is starting to look more like a professional maiden and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Archie’s Girl turn the tables. Englehart is 24% first off the claim.
Race 3. 2-3-6
Getup Stayup has a couple of good races on the main and is coming off a two month layoff. After his last he was gelded and he also adds the blinkers back after running a race without them. The workouts are not over the top, but they have been steady. At the odds, he’s the one I want to keep an eye on. Two Times Book nearly won at this level two back, and couldn’t sustain when moved to MSW. He’s back with the kind he almost beat today, and should be the one to catch in the lane. Congrats Kid was taken by Steve Asmussen last out and was another that almost beat this kind. Certainly at the right level.
Race 4. 3-1-4
She’s All Even has been dropping down the price ladder and finally seemed competitive at today’s level. Should be up at the front and may be by herself all the way to the wire. Laura’s Patriot was right behind the top choice last out and will have to do some sharp running in the lane to catch the top one today. Valkimqua hardly raised a gallop after a troubled break last out, but prior to that was competitive with low level claimers. Look to add some value to the top three.
Race 5. 3-5-6
This looks like a race any horse can win. The field is closely matched. Splendid Gold actually has a win and a place in two starts over the main.. She won by 10 two starts back, and had a four race streak going into the last race. She didn’t seem to take to the route, but she’s back sprinting today. Make the Moment has been with better and drops to his lowest level in a long while. She should benefit from the price drop and off her best she’s competitive with this group. Shotgun Love has a win and a third on the AQU main and in her last six races she hasn’t finished out of the money. Fits the price, likes the distance and has been very consistent.
Race 6. 2-4-3
Dreamsdocometrue has been second his last three times after breaking his maiden. On the down side, he seems a little too content to finish second, but his figures top the field. Union River is another that seems more comfortable finishing in the money than winning, but in this field he has good prospects. His last two show enough talent to win. Tabaddol broke his maiden on the AQU main and only has five previous starts. Back on the main today he could jump back to the winning form.
Race 7. 3-2-1
Another highly competitive affair. I’ll go with Perfect Freud. She’s the best speed by far and certainly fits at this level. Carmouche gets back on board and the last two times he rode her she won. Literata is listed as the favorite, and while she shows a liking for the main, she’s not a high win type. She can certainly win, but she’d have to go higher than the ML to be value. Isabelle has five wins in 11 starts and has a second in her only start on the main. Fits in this field.
Race 8. 5-1-8
The closing race is pretty wide open. Woodford Tea is dropping out of a MSW where she never broke and never threatened. The fact that she is the choice should tell you about the rest of the field. Valerie’s Spirit is making her ninth start. Her figures are good, but she’s starting to run out of chances. Still last time she was at this level she finished second and that’s enough to recommend her. Legend of Lorelei is the probable favorite, and the fact that she goes second time off the claim by Gargan is a big point in her favor – he’s 27% with his second time runners. No surprise at all if she runs away with the race. Just not excited about the low odds.