Interesting day at the Big A. There was a consensus that a huge inside bias existed, and some of the horses I thought had big chances were clearly compromised, including Conquest Big E in the Gotham. I thought the performance of the day was Saythreehailmary’s in the Heavenly Prize who maintained a short head advantage most of the length of the stretch to finish second to Mei Ling. Today looks like a lot of short but competitive fields. If the track plays the same, we’ll look for the speed that can find the inside.
Race 1. 5-3-2
This lower-level NW3 claimer does not have a standout horse, but we’ll give Ducasa the nod. While she hasn’t won on the inner, she has two seconds and a third at the current meet. Contessa claimed the horse from Asmussen, who promptly took the horse back next out. That looks like a positive. She drops back to the $25K level, but I’m a little leery of the fact the horse hasn’t won in her last 11 races. Tepid top choice. Buckskin Doll just won a NW2L for $40K. She ran a big race in breaking her maiden at BEL, and then steadily declined. Her last race might signal a return to top form, and off her best she could get home first. Moondance Joy was claimed two back by Chris Englehart. Her best races have been on the turf, but the inner dirt races haven’t been bad.
Race 2. 2-1
There are two entries and we’ll go with the Linda Rice duo of Archie’s Girl and Army Brat. Army Brat has a race on the inner and has the top figure. Archie’s Girl goes first time and Rice has lately been doing well with maidens. Mike Repole sends out South Court and Voided Contract. The latter has two starts on the inner and has shown good speed in both. South Court goes first time for Bruce Levine. Like the workout pattern. The rest of the horses could be any kind.
Race 3. 5-6-3
Matt King Coal has been off since October, but Linda Rice is a respectable 19% off the layoff. Has shown good speed. I like the high figures as a two year old and if he improves as a three year old he could be the class of the field. Pletcher scratched Mo Power from the Gotham yesterday to run in this spot. He’s another with good speed and figures to be very competitive here. My Man Sam has a deep closing style and given the way the track played yesterday, it’s hard to feel enthusiastic about him, but he’s got the best last race figure and if the track comes up fair he’s a real contender.
Race 4. 2-1-6
We Did improved when dropped to the $25K level. Moves from the sprint to the route, and he is bred well enough for the distance. Should show speed today and taking the blinks off should help focus the speed. Say No Maux moves to the Linda Rice barn for this run. He’s been gelded since the last race in September. Rice is 32% off the long layoff and has been hot of late at AQU. Drops from MSW down to the $30K level. Should be competitive with this group. Daggerpoint is another coming out of MSW for Pletcher. He ran creditably at $50K but flopped badly at the higher level. The return to the claiming ranks should give him a much better opportunity.
Race 5. 2-7-5
The Jimmy Winkfield has a small but competitive field. One could make a case for almost any of the runners, but since I had to come up with three…. Sudden Surprise has shown a lot of speed in all his starts. Last out he ran the two turn Gander and was passed by Governor Malibu in the deep stretch. He’s back at the sprint today where he is 2 for 2. Even though he hasn’t been with non-statebred company, the consistent speed and good figures at the distance make him a strong competitor. Condo King beat King Kranz in his maiden victory and has only raced in the G3 Jerome since. That race was not impressive, but he did push the pace at the two turn distance and drops back to the winning distance today. King Kranz is another that has been more effective in sprints. Like the other King, he tried two turns in the Withers, prompted the pace and faded out of it. Still, the horses from the Withers who ran in yesterday’s Gotham looked like the real deal, so losing to them was no embarrassment. Could be a King exacta.
Race 6. 1-3-6
Mambo At the Gym is more of a presser, but if he gets a good spot on the rail, he may be able to run by the leaders in the stretch. Didn’t run well at the $35K level last out – he was breaking from the outside, didn’t break well, went wide around both turns and faded in the stretch. The shift in post positions and the drop in price could put him over the top today. Fleeting is another pressing/sustained type, but he did show speed in previous races and ran against much better last year. Nick Esler is 21% with limited starts second off the short layoff. Hunt’s Road has shown a lot of speed in statebred OC $40K races. This has the look of the typical Pletcher sale horse, but unlike some trainers he often wins with that move.
Race 7. 4-1-2-6
Another mess of a race. Imslopokerodriguez ran a powerful race in breaking his maide for $40K and was grabbed by Danny Gargan. Gargan is 23% first off the claim. Dreamsdocometrue has been running well with $50K starter allowance horses and has a bullet work two weeks ago. Good races on the inner and at the distance. Richie’s Rich finally broke his maiden after finishing second in half his starts. Perhaps he’s figured it out and will show better today. Dannie’s Deceiver came off a layoff since November to run a nice race and should improve today. I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the top horses threw in a new top race.
Race 8. 6-4-8
This statebred allowance has a pretty good field. I thought a while before settling on New York Chrome. He looked good breaking his maiden and in the subsequent two ALW races. Given he’s shown speed in his previous starts, and certainly should show speed moving from the sprint to a route, if the track is still playing to the inside speed, I’ll give him the tepid nod. He’s certainly bred well enough for the two turns. Thirst For Glory is the ML favorite and has looked good in three starts on the inner. Top last race figure puts him right in the mix. Repent Twice in another that has looked good on the inner. Barely missed getting out of this condition last out and has shown a proclivity to finish in the money. Closing style may be against him unless the track is playing more fair.
Race 9. 5-3-7-9
Nobody really sticks out in this race. Foxy Posse looks like she enjoyed the drop from MSW to $25K claimers, has a decent run on the inner and with some improvement may turn the tables on Lil Renegade. Double Mane cut back to a sprint last out and finished just behind Bubbe Zen but I’ll give her an edge because of the fewer starts. Lil Renegade is making her 12th start and while she has run her best races on the inner, the high number of starts is a negative. Same issue with Bubbe Zena, although she often finds the board.