Belmont September 30

I’m back from my travels and I had a very productive trip, including attending my first demolition derby at the Frederick County Fair AND trying a fried oreo for the first time. I spent some time on the backside at Laurel Park. I also got to see the Pope driving by in his Fiat (like any other car would have been the right choice) across 34th street in mid-town Manhattan and having a very nice conversation with (my new friend) Andy Serling at Belmont Park. Plus I had a candid conversation with racing attorney extraordinaire Karen Murphy that I’ll be writing about this week.

Meanwhile, I’m back with selections for Belmont. I think it has been a difficult meet where in too many of the races the favorites look too good and the longer prices look inferior. But we’ll keep looking for some solid longshots. Since I’m posting the night before, selections are before scratches and assume races stay on the turf.

Race 1      4-3-6

Race 2      1-5-4

Race 3      7-2-3

Race 4      6-2-4

Race 5      5-6-3

Race 6      8-5-7-10

Race 7      7-8-2

Race 8      7-2-5

Race 9      5-7-10

Off From September 22-28

I apologize, but I will be on a research trip from September 22 to 28 and will not likely be posting any picks.

I do have some interesting interviews lined up with some well known people and I’ll get them posted just as quickly as I can.

I also want to mention that I will be at Belmont Park on Saturday September 26. Anyone who wants to say hello, just let me know. I’ll put a message on the web site and on Twitter about where I’ll be hanging out.

Belmont September 20

Race 1      5-4-7

While Right Decision has the best figures, she’s had multiple chances and hasn’t cracked the code. I’m not saying she can’t win the race, but I like to go elsewhere to horses that haven’t gotten half the way to professional maiden status. For that reason I’ll go to C Note. She has two starts, the second better than the first and a good figure. The race is apparently devoid of speed, so the lead may fall to Future Show. She ran well enough to win first time out and gets a good jockey switch from Cintron to Alvarado. Elated makes her sixth start and she has been out of the money only once. Top figure off her last race.

Race 2      3-6-5

This is another competitive affair. I’m going to take a chance with Perfecct Disco. He was off since March, came out at SAR at this level and showed good speed to the stretch in a race half a furlong longer than today’s distance. He can be excused for needing the start and at his best he’s as good as anything in the race. Gullo is 27% off the six month layoff. Attractive Ride has four wins in his last five starts and has the best front speed in the race. Claimed by DJ last out and he is pretty effective off first time with a new runner. McKenzies Way was claimed by Michelle Nevin who is 26% first off the claim. She kept the horse off since May, and has put in some comfortable works in prep for this race. In the recent past he was defeating much better than this field and will be dangerous if Nevin has him cranked.

Race 3      7-8-1

The Ashley Cole stakes brings together a number of the usual state-bred turf stakes suspects. No reason to pick against the consistent runners Lubash, Kharafa and Iron Power. You can decide how to mix and match.

Race 4      4-1-7

Mr. Popsicle was claimed last out by DJ and that makes him dangerous. DJ decided to geld the horse, and that usually focuses an animal. The horse had shown good speed and although he is bred well for the turf, his two wins have come on the dirt. Has a monster number off his win on the slop and given his last was his first start of 2015, lots of improvement is possible today. Groupthink looks to be the better of the Gargan runners. He drops in half and has been in the money six of seven starts this year. Chase Lane had a good start when dropped to this level last out and returns in search of a win.

Race 5      1A -4-5-3

Queen’s Parade looks to be the better of the entry. Has a win at the distance at BEL and competitive numbers. Radiator should be the speed in the race and given there isn’t much other front speed he may take the field all the way. Trophee will inevitably be flying at the end and success may depend on the pace and Alvarado’s ability to time the move right. Miss Chatelaine comes off a couple of decent runs in graded stakes. Will have to win coming from the farthest back.

Race 6      3-7-5

Scorecard Harry has been improving and moves over to the Mike Hushion barn for this start. He had a little trouble at the break in his last and could improve today. Loses some weight with the switch to Cancel. Dettifoss bolted in his last but in the prior start was a strong second. The figure from that race is competitive here. Blinkers come off in an effort to change the gate issues. Interior Secretary popped his best race last out and in a weak field is one of the stick-outs.

Race 7      6-10-1

Andalusite finally broke his maiden in his 9th start. This is a pretty weak field and he has a good chance to make it two in a row. Valuetempo has been knocking around at this level for a while with moderate success. Should be one of the ones battling up front and may have enough courage to hang on. Melville looks like the better of the two in the entry. Drops back to a more comfortable level today.

Race 8      11-2-1-10

The John Hettinger is definitely the feature race on today’s card. A number of runners are coming out of the Yadoo, and for the most part they are interchangeable here. We’ll start with Selenite. She stumbled at the start of that race but still was part of the finish. Her win at BEL was on a DQ, but she’s had some success over the BEL turf.  The Tea Cups is a sentimental favorite for me since that was my bet in the Yadoo. She’ll be winging from back in the stretch. Old Harbor ran a nice race in the Yadoo, tracking in fourth and not being able to keep The Tea Cups at bay. Invading Humor has seven wins in 17 races, including three wins at BEL and one at the distance. Should be in a good position early and we’ll see if she has the closing kick.

Race 9      11-1-8-7

Big Al Parker has taken well to the turf with a couple of better than looked races. Drops out of the MSW ranks to claimers today. Gets a switch to Saez for this run. Old Friend is another dropping out of the MSW ranks and should be winging in the stretch. The inside post might be a problem if Franco doesn’t find a clear route home. Mind Magic ran better at BEL than he did upstate. Was claimed by Mike Maker and he is a good 21% first time off the claim. Hunter Cat has one turf sprint to his name and will be part of the early scrum. Speed is always dangerous.

Belmont September 19

Race 1      5-9-1-6

A few high price purchases in this group. The most expensive entrant is the $2.2 million colt Mohaymen. This Tapit son has been working decently for Kiaran McLaughlin and should be ready to go. King Kranz ran a strange race in his first start. He broke with the leaders and then quickly moved to the back of the pack, getting the comment “greenly.”
Coming out of the turn he showed good interest, passing four horses in the stretch. The speculation is that if he runs without issues he will be very competitive here. At 10-1 it’s worth finding out. Formulate goes for Chad Brown who is now a more down to earth 21% with first timers. Malibu Moon has been a superior sire for young horses and the workout pattern is typical Chad Brown. Seymourdini is a $900K Bernardini colt for Linda Rice  who is not particularly sharp with first timers. Still, the talent is there and he has to be given some consideration.

Race 2      7-3-2

Mack Miller looked ok at SAR and he is probably better suited to the 6F distance. Cleburne is the X factor here. He was well thought of in his three year old season, starting in a couple of graded stakes, but was generally a disappointment. He switches trainers to Thomas Morely, and has a useful series of works for the 2015 debut. Could be dangerous if he lives up to his potential. Successful Brothers has 11 second place finishes in 27 starts and while he doesn’t inspire in the win slot, he certainly looks like he wants to be close.

Race 3      3-12-9-8

Brinkley was off slow and had some bumping in the stretch but she still showed plenty of interest. A clean trip should put her on top. Orzo was in the same race and had a little problem at the gate, plus she raced greenly. Another who can be a factor if she acts more professionally. Celestial Insight goes for Wesley Ward who is fair with first timers. Abbreviated work tab but a couple of nice ones. Relativism is one to watch here. She is very well bred for the turf but may be at her best over a distance of ground. The works don’t suggest prep for a sprint, but the horse may show well on inherent talent alone.

Race 4      4-8-6-2

Sheriffa hasn’t been out since May but has never been out of the money at BEL and is one for one at the distance. Won huge the last time she was coming back from a layoff for a trainer who is decent with returning runners. Tahoe Tigress is interesting at 8-1 ML. She’s 5 of 9 at BEL and 4 of 8 at the distance. She started the year finishing last in a G3, and ran two uninspired races after that in restricted stakes; however, she probably is better suited to the one turn race and her last win came on this track at this level. Kirov is a contender but she may be a bit overrated at 2-1 ML. She beat a pretty good NW1X field but with a figure that isn’t quite the match of the top choice, plus she’ll likely have Sheriffa to contend with at the front. Guyana is riding a four race winning streak and is one likely to benefit if the race breaks down up front.

Race 5      4-2-6-3

Two Down One to Go is the Kitten’s Joy colt trained by Chad Brown. Superior breeding for both the turf and the distance. Ro Bear ran a good one in his maiden first out and should improve with the experience. Clearly looks the best of the horses that have started. Ben’s Miracle is by young sire Uncle Mo who has had some early success with turf starters. Ryerson is a good 25% with first timers and he’s got some good looking works. Core Portfolio goes for top notch first start trainer Richard Violette. One to watch on the board.

Race 6      1-3-5

The coupling of Classic Salsa and Comandante looks tough here. Both are likely to be up front early, both have had some success at BEL, and Danny Gargan has had a pretty good 2015. Second City has been racing with better and has competitive figures despite not having a lot of win success in the last two years. Better than the 12-1 ML indicates. Mordi’s Miracle was taken last out by DJ and rested a month and a half. Jacobson is actually pretty good off that move and I like that he doesn’t drop him in price. Nice series of works in prep for this.

Race 7      4-3-5-10

The Big Deluxe looked good when being moved back to a turf sprint. Has shown a lot speed in his dirt races so should be in a good spot turning for home. Descent has a win and a second on the BEL turf and was only 3/4 of a length behind The Big Deluxe in his last. Run for Logistics lost all chance at the start last out but before that had a win and three seconds in his last four turf sprints before that. Speightstown Time ran well first time out and could be any kind as he goes first time with winners.

Race 8      1-5-2-8

Coffee Clique is a recent Grade 3 winner and was only two lengths out in the Ballston Spa. Is a Grade 1 winner at BEL and is well suited for the distance. Recepta just won the De La Rose and is a Grade 3 winner at BEL. Mabre Rose just won a Grade 3 at WO and has a win and two seconds in three races at BEL. Gets the good turf rider Lezcano. Lady Lara has been exclusively with Grade 1 and 2 horses this year and perhaps the less accomplished field makes her more competitive.

Race 9      2-5-8-11

Lot’s of question marks in this race. Jay Gatsby makes his first start in the U.S. for Jimmy Jerkens, a traner not really known for his prowess with Euro shippers. I’m going to give him a race. Despite his perfect in the money record, the wins came against short fields at some lesser French tracks. Umgiyo was ok in Dubai, shipped to CD and raced on Derby day, finishing last in the Grade 1 Turf Classic. He gets first Lasix today and Clement is 28% with that move. Possibly not value at 3-1, but could be a factor. Global Strike went to the lead at a mile and five eighths and wasn’t able to hold. Should be better suited to the mile and a quarter and will have to be caught. Planetaire ships over from France for Graham Motion, who is 25% with first time North America starters, has been working him for a month at Fair Hill. Sly Tom has a recent win at BEL and certainly fits the class level. Worth a look at 15-1 ML. Taghleeb hasn’t run a bad lifetime race and his last start was one of the better figures. Another with some interest at a decent price.

Race 10   8-1-10-11

The best talent in this race seems to be on the outside. Converge goes first time for Chad Brown. He was bought for 16 times the sire fee and although the sire hasn’t had great first time success, the sample is limited and the works look useful. Brooklyn Speights lost to Too Discreet, who came back to take the Schenectady, and Heated Verdict who broke his maiden next out. While his race wasn’t impressive, he was bet a little bit and Wesley Ward has powerful numbers with second time maidens, two year olds, and sprint to route. Yummy Bear had all sorts of trouble first time out but should have learned some lessons from that start. Sax Change has looked good in his two starts and has to be respected for his experience.

Belmont September 18

Race 1      3-5-4

Familyofroses has only two wins but they have both been at BEL. Will have to close for the win but has the figures to be a factor. Lady Luciano should be the speed here and has looked better on the dirt than the turf. Literata has two wins in four tries at BEL including one at the distance.

Race 2      4-7-6

Sinatra should be in a good spot turning for home and should do better with the drop in price. Upgrade is another dropping in price. Has a high in the money percentage and has been running consistent figures for a while. Compliance Officer has been with quite a bit better in the recent past and ran well when dropped to this level last out.

Race 3      8-2-6

Godrevy puts the blinkers on and Castellano stays for the ride. Should be coming late. Indian Trail has been improving with each out and the fact Pletcher keeps him at the MSW level is a positive. Captain Tim looked better in his last out and could be getting back to the form he showed first time out at BEL.

Race 4      5-1-13

Chico Grande was gelded since his last start and drops down to his lowest price ever. Looks best in a suspect field. Frontier Scout is racing third off a layoff and has come back stronger in 2015. Apache Warrior makes another drop after finishing a close second last out. Should be able to get a spot even though he is on the outside.

Race 5      1-5-6

The Magical Miss/Egyptian Magic coupling looks tough here. Both are dropping in price and look well meant at the distance. Undertherain should be the speed in a field that doesn’t have an abundance of front runners. Moon Medal is dropping way down after running a good race second time on the turf.

Race 6      10-7-5

Whatawonderflworld is a Tiz Wonderful that goes first time for top trainer Mark Casse. Love the fast early work and the last work on the turf. Stormin Stephen had the lead in the stretch last out but lost by a half after racing greenly. A better effort could put him on top. Sherry’s Miracle has some fast works for Mike Miceli and looks well bred for the distance.

Race 7      6-9-1

Mid Ocean has the best last race figure but that was in a Travers where he was no factor at all. Prior to that was impressive breaking his maiden and if he goes back to that race he’s still a major factor. Tapitsphere just missed in his last and seems to have come into his own lately. Send It In should be at his best at the mile distance for Pletcher/Castellano. Has a good race over the BEL dirt.

Race 8      7-10-4-2

Barrel of Love threw in a mediocre race last out but the penultimate race was a fast sprint at BEL. Sandy’z Slew just missed last out. Still looking for a win on the BEL turf but has been in the money all five of his starts there. Tripski gets a positive switch to Castellano and hasn’t been out of the money this year. Summer Breezing is 2 for 2 over the BEL turf and looks to be in top condition.

Race 9      4-8-3-2

Miss Kew has been wide in both of her starts but has still closed with interest. Lots of outs today. Lady Lucky had a troubled start last out but still showed enough interest to finish third. Every opportunity to win with a clean start. Sheyn Vi Di Levonne comes out of the same race as the first two and was another than need the experience from that start. Expecting better today. Sophie’s Choice last race was better than looked and she has been improving. Interesting at 15-1 ML.

Belmont September 17

Race 1      7-4-3

Northern Screamer showed a little bit of speed in her first race back after a short break and drops from MSW to a low claiming level. Don’t like the drop, but looks strong in this group. Kisses for Romeo has been knocking around at this level but her last two have shown some life. Kay’s Little Mug didn’t have a chance in her first race and comes back after 10 months for Zito. Bit of a stretch but could make the verticals.

Race 2      4-6-1

Bounty Pink is a win type that is 4 of 5 on the BEL dirt.  She’s at the right level and gets a preferred fast track today. Star of the Forest has not run a bad one for Jacobson and is competitive with this group. Has had success at the distance. So Good to Go was claimed last out by Bruce Brown and looks for two in a row.

Race 3      3-2-9

Luv Dakota Skye drops to a level where he has had success before.  Has done his best running at BEL. Ogermeister was grabbed by Gullo last out and he is fair first off the claim. In four starts on the turf has two seconds and a third. Excellent Royale finally gets Lasix and looks to jump up from his last. Will need odds to make him a bet.

Race 4      1-10-6-9

Royalton is one of a group coming out of the Women Win race. She has a little trouble in her first and didn’t show enough speed in her second, but was coming off a two month layoff. Expect improvement today. Lady in Shades puts the blinkers on and cuts back in distance. Last work suggests she’s ready to roll today. Stone Supplier was second in the aforementioned Women Win race. Last was really better than looked – don’t buy the DRF guess that the last was a regression from the first race because the Beyer’s figure was lower. She was on a much faster pace in a much faster race. Kellyesque also comes out of the Women Wins race. Couldn’t keep up but that race was impressive for a first effort, and don’t discount the massive switch to Irad.

Race 5      7-5-9

Cease is a bit overestimated on the ML but does have a series of figures that should handle this field. Grandpa Len didn’t run that well at SAR but prior to that ran a couple of good ones at BEL. Popular at the claim box. Groomedforvictory has been a hard campaigner and  is good at BEL and the distance.

Race 6      2-12-9

Blue Earth drops down to the claiming ranks after running a good learning race in her first start. Angel Choir makes her tenth start in search of a win. Has the figures to be a factor here. Pointe Class puts the blinkers on after running an improved race when dropped to $40K. Seems to have picked up on the turf and at the route distance. Interesting switch to Cancel.

Race 7      3-7-2-8

Welcome Speech drops to his lowest level and off his best competes with this group. Winner’s Legacy makes a substantial drop today in search of a win. An easier group may be the tonic. Suzy’sprideofparis has some competitive figures and at 20-1 ML is worth a look. Quarla flopped at SAR but prior to that had been running competitively. Looks a lot more likely for an in-the-money finish than a win.

Race 8      7-6-2

Beyond Empire has been close in three starts in the U.S. after trying Dubai. Figures look dominant. All About Ashley is 2 for 2 at BEL and should be fighting up front today. The scratch of Petrocelli might help him. Force raced well in a state-bred stakes last out and should have first run at the leaders.

Race 9      5-6-11

Miss Rickles showed a lot of improvement second time out and at 10-1 is worth a look. Scout It Out showed well when moved to turf and dropped in price. Expect improvement today. Splendid Gold is coming from the far outside and has to overcome that disadvantage but has been competing well at the turf sprint.

Belmont September 16

Since this is being posted the night before, picks are before scratches and assume turf races stay on the turf.

High probability winners – Stay Tuned (2nd), Possilicious (5th)

Possible Longshots – Ex Ex Ex (8th)

Race 1      4-6-2

Race 2      5-7-1

Race 3      3-1-5

Race 4      7-3-5

Race 5      3-4-6

Race 6      9-1-3

Race 7      2-3-6

Race 8      4-7-12 (9)

( ) means a horse that has a high probability of being in the money, but low probability of winning

Race 9      9-7-8

Belmont September 13

Selections are before scratches, and are for a fast dirt and races still on the turf.

Race 1      2-4-1

Holders Season was a $280K purchase and landed in the Pletcher barn. Last workout cements the pick. Wave of Glory has a series of nice works and Ryerson is 21% first time out. Lewis Bay goes for the Borwn/Ortiz combo. Bernardini progeny are usually good at the sprint distances early in their careers.

Race 2      5-7-2

Arctic Ocean had two mediocre races on wet tracks but before that won at the Ocala Training Center one-day meet. He has a second over the BEL turf and is two of three in the money on the turf. Dot Product has not been out of the money in four starts on the BEL turf. Should be in a good pressing position. Saratoga Karaoke has had fair success on the BEL turf and has the numbers to compete in this field.

Race 3      2-6-3

Carrumba broke her maiden at a route a couple of weeks ago at SAR. Her maiden voyage was a solid second over this BEL dirt. Intervening work was sharp. Ayaady has not had a run over the dirt but her turf race numbers are impressive. Dangerous if she adapts. Piccolo Flats has a lot of experience including two wins at BEL. Usually runs with heart.

Race 4      5-6-9-1

Girls Secret was a $500K purchase. She seemed to need her first and Dutrow is strong second time out. Gray Stark made a big move in the stretch last out and should get enough pace to run at. Breakfast Time is the other going for Chad Brown who is 31% with second start maidens. Castellano stays for the trip. Alto Belle is the Pletcher/Velasquez entrant. Works look promising.

Race 5      3-6-8

Star Dynasty won on a fast SAR track for $30K and was taken in that race by Danny Gargan. Faltered in the mud last time at $40K and drops into a bottom level claimer. If she wins and gets taken Gargan barely breaks even, so the move carries some concern, but the figures say she is the one to beat. Tia Lana fits with this group, especially after fighting to the wire in her SAR start. Should be part of the early pace picture. Little Miss Julia is another taking a major plunge in price, but based on where she was competitive in the past she might just be in the right spot.

Race 6      8-12-6

Lady Kreesa has had good success at BEL and is 1 for 1 at this distance. She’s versatile in her running style, and at her best she looks as good as anything in the race. Lamontagne has to overcome the outside post but she’s shown plenty of speed and a will to finish. Top Sheet is only making her fourth start and has room to improve. Blinkers go on today and she’s well bred for the distance.

Race 7      4-8-3

Readtheprospectus goes back to the dirt for new trainer David JAcobson after a win on the turf. His best figures have been on the dirt and with his best effort he should top the field. Noble Moon has shown a liking for BEL and is 1 for 1 at the distance. Has the best last race figure and actually was better than looked in the Alydar. Hartford makes his third start for Todd Pletcher. He looked great coming offa year and a half layoff and the workouts say she should still be in good shape.

Race 8      7-6-8

Gallery won the Manila at BEL at a mile, drops down to six furlongs today. He’s breed outstanding for the sprint distance and has the best last race figure. Cyclogenisis was part of the Weaver contingent that traveled to Ascot. He was a good two year old, winning his maiden at SAR and the Laurel Futurity. His return from England in the Quick Call was better than looked and he should be ready for a top today. Ready for Rye has been with much better and looks to wire a decent stakes field today. His OC$62 race was smashing, and he will be a danger today.

Race 9      5-1/1A-6-11

Broughton Kitten was claimed by Gullo two back. Throw out the last race – he’s back at a much better level. Longshot pick of the day for me. The entry of Let’s Wrap It Up and Valuetempo looks strong against this group. Valuetempo might be the stronger and he gets a good switch to Castellano. All My Trails wasn’t bad in his first with winners and drops down a couple of levels searching for the win today. Blue Shark has to overcome the outside post and doesn’t have a lot of natural speed. Despite wearing the favorite’s role. He’s got a lot to overcome but does have Irad in his corner.

Belmont September 12

Race 1      2-1-6

Richiebythelinks went to his knees and face planted in his last race, really losing all chance. Prior to that he was looking good in Illinois bred races. We’re betting a $16K NW2 in New York might be the equivalent of an Illinois allowance. Thirty Percent looked good in allowance races at FL and Englehart is not bad moving horses from FL to the big circuit. Has the speed to get position from the rail. Stoney Soprano won his maiden at BEL but couldn’t negotiate a muddy track at SAR. Lots of upside left.

Race 2      6-5-8-7

Steamboat Bill showed good speed last out and gets blinkers today. Oscar Nominated has the right style for the turf and gets the addition of Lasix today. Mott doesn’t often win first out but picks up the percentage second time. Tusk was awkward at the start last out and gets a big switch to Johnny V this time. Camelot Kitten goes first time for Chad Brown and it is never a surprise when one of his charges wins.

Race 3      1-3-4

V.E. Day seems to have limitless bottom and shouldn’t have any trouble with the distance. With four horses, none of them speedy, he should be in the right position to use his closing kick. If there is a likely pace setter it may be Tacticus. He showed some tendency to stay close to the speed in Europe and is well experienced at the distance. Indycott has been off since getting claimed by Danny Gargan. He doesn’t seem to be a distance specialist, but this race may come down to who gets the trip.

Race 4      7-1-3

Toughest ‘Ombre faded in the stretch first time out, but Albertrani horses often take a race to be at the top of their condition. Gets first Lasix and that could be a help. Deserved is another that has a trainer who isn’t at his best first out. Switch to Johnny V not huge but should be helpful. Wild Man gets a new rider in Castellano as the jockeys play musical horses. He kept to the task first out and showed enough heart get consideration.

Race 5      5-2-4

Great Attack is one of the two Jacobson horses. He’s been competitive at this level for a while, has a win at BEL and one at the distance. Media Kid was taken by Joe Sharp in May after having a very successful 2014 campaign. Not sure what the issue was in bringing him back so far after the claim, but the works have been steady in August and September. Certainly fits the group and takes the blinkers off for the new conditioner.

Race 6      4-3-1

Longfor the City has had most of his success on the BEL dirt and the return should be in his favor. Blinkers go on today and that should help focus his natural speed. 10-1 too attractive to ignore. Dekalb County hasn’t run a bad one at BEL, has plenty of early foot and consistently good figures. Blinkers on for him as well; probably will be bet too heavy to   get my money in the win pool.  Instructor Kunu had been with decent PA breds and ran well when moved to SAR, especially considering the stumbling start. Far better than the 15-1 odds might lead you to believe.

Race 7      2-10-9

Startwithsilver missed graduation by a nose last time and has a field dominating figure. Unless one of the first timers is super she looks like the likely winner. Ally’s Envy goes for the always dangerous Chad Brown, and the combo with Irad is a healthy 27%. The danger. Bea Bea has some good works for Violette and is well bred for the grass and the sprint distance. Another worth monitoring on the tote board.

Race 8      6-1-9

All Over Me is a decent horse in a not so decent field. Hasn’t been seven furlongs yet – strictly a router – but has shown speed at the longer distance and that may be in his favor. Don’t like the record at BEL, but as I said, not much to beat here. Chasintheblues has had some hard luck but does have a win at BEL. Dark Roast is not a win type but is better than 50% in the money. I’ll focus on him underneath.

Race 9      8-9-5

Malabar won her last, a Group 3 at Goodwood. Compare her time to Osaila the same day. Malabar looks more apt at the mile and a sixteenth. Osaila was second in her last, a Group 3 at Goodwood. Dettori doesn’t come for the ride, but Castellano is a good sub. Five wins in 11 starts is a good percentage. Sentiero Italia comes off a win in the G2 Lake Placid, besting Miss Temple City. Very good prospects today.

Race 10   7-8-5

Banana Thief has been competitive at this level for a while but is still looking to break through for win number two. Looks good based on recent figures. Payment Terms broke his maiden at Belmont, ran decently considering he was hard to control early in the NY Stallion Series at SAR. Expecting a good run today. Wicked Freud just broke his maiden at SAR but also has a good race over the BEL turf. Lots of outs today.