Belmont July 1

Race 1

  • 5  Enasoit
  • 8  Long NIght
  • 3  Champagne Papi

Race 2

  • 3  Jewel Can Disco
  • 1  Great Blake
  • 2  Get Game
  • Secondary (4)

Race 3

  • 5  Makealittlelove
  • 3  Queen of Spades
  • 9  Short Kakes
  • Secondary (1, 6)

Race 4

  • 3  Deuces High
  • 1  Zabaione
  • 6  Jet Black
  • Secondary (4)

Race 5

  • 3  Dreams are Pazible
  • 6  Spa Angel
  • 10  Goodbye Brockley
  • Secondary (7)

Race 6

  • 10  Mojo’s Queen
  • 5  Deltalina
  • 1  Crazy About Jazz
  • Secondary (2, 4)

Race 7

  • 8  Ancient Secret
  • 7  Off Limits
  • 2  On Leave
  • Secondary (1, 9)

Race 8

  • 8  Duquesne Whistle
  • 3  Wicked Macho
  • 1A  Cerratalto
  • Secondary (7, 4)

Race 9

  • 1  Lights of Medina
  • 4  Lockdown
  • 6  Vexatious 
  • Secondary (2, 3, 7)

Race 10

  • 7  Theycallhimthekid
  • 2  Zandar
  • 3  Spectrolite
  • Secondary (6)

Belmont June 25

Race 1

  • 2  Spotty Zealous
  • 3  Lightning Buzz
  • 4  Rossie Val
  • Secondary (6)

Race 2

  • 6  War Bond
  • 7  Neoclassic
  • 3  Divine Oath
  • Secondary (1, 10, 5)

Race 3

  • 3  Alright Alright
  • 1  Rockford
  • Secondary (All)

Race 4

  • 7  Sandy’z Slew
  • 2  Anytime Anyplace
  • 4  Vici
  • Secondary (1, 6)

Race 5

  • 5  Format Summation
  • 1  Bustin the Bank
  • 7  Lucky Lotto

Race 6

  • 1  Madam Aamoura
  • 7  Two Term Max
  • 5  Majestic Lassie
  • Secondary (2, 8)

Race 7

  • 4  Lady Joan
  • 3  Paz the Bourbon
  • 1  Dreamy Margarita
  • Secondary (2, 6, 8)

Race 8

  • 6  Indebted
  • 9  Souperfast
  • 1  Slim Shadey
  • 10  Dream Man
  • Secondary (3, 5, 1)

Race 9

  • 1  Crawdaddy
  • 4  T Loves a Fight
  • 5  Reason to Soar
  • 7  Bavaro
  • Secondary (8)

Race 10

  • 7  Ciao Bella Mia
  • 2  Scarlett Jo Hansen
  • 4  I’ddrinktoanything
  • Secondary (5)

Belmont June 24

Race 1

  • 6  Summer of Joy
  • 1  Kissin Cassie
  • 5  Salori’s Bank
  • Secondary (2)

Race 2

  • 7  Hansen’s Help
  • 8  Diamond’s and Stones
  • 6  Desert Affair
  • Secondary (2)

Race 3

  • 4  Gioia Stella
  • 8  Now Power
  • 2  Penjade
  • Secondary (1, 6)

Race 4

  • 2  Basic Hero
  • 1  Mikado
  • 6  Won’t Burn
  • Secondary (3)

Race 5

  • (13  Lover’s Key)
  • 11  Electrified
  • 1  Discreet Image
  • 12  Treatherlikeastar
  • Secondary (4, 5)

Race 6

  • 9  Switzerland
  • 1  Javelin
  • 7  Zap Zap Zap
  • Secondary (2, 10)

Race 7

  • 9  Vintage Matters
  • 6  Inheritthewind
  • 1 Elenzee
  • Secondary (4, 8)

Race 8

  • 3  Bellavais
  • 6  Rubilinda
  • 2  Lull
  • Secondary ( 2, 3, 5)

Race 9

  • 8  Converge 
  • 4  Munjaz
  • 7  Call Provision
  • Secondary (5, 3)

Race 10

  • 1  Dooley
  • 7  Kierland
  • 10  Bats Cleanup
  • Secondary (2, 11)

Saving Santa Anita

Things are getting serious in Southern California.

Frank Stronach has sent Tim Ritvo to Santa Anita to save that track from potential demise.  For those who aren’t familiar with Ritvo, he has been the The Stronach Group’s Chief Operating Officer of the Racing Division since June 2012. He’s seen as uniquely qualified because he has been a jockey, trainer, and a racetrack executive, someone who can act as a bridge between the blue collar people who make the track go – the trainers, stable workers, and jockeys – and the corporate guys, people who Ritvo referred to as “guys with MBAs and lawyers who don’t know the first thing about racing.”

I don’t know about you, but it sounds to me like he zeroed in on the first really big problem — guys running the track who might understand the business end of things, but don’t really understand horseracing. From the anecdotal evidence, Santa Anita seems to have found more than its share of track administrators, including the stewards, who can’t seem to help but regularly incur the ire of various stakeholder groups. While Ritvo is kind to the existing management personnel in public, he must have heard the regular criticisms of them, and I’d say it’s time for him to have some frank discussions in private.

But Ritvo expresses the real motivation to get everybody on the same page –  the fact that Stronach owns a half billion dollar property that doesn’t return even 4-5%. Reading between the lines, at some point either Santa Anita becomes economically viable as a racetrack property, or Stronach either sells it (and if someone buys it, I don’t know why anyone would think they could do a better job of running a horseracing facility) or redevelops it. And while Ritvo doesn’t come right out and say it, horseracing in California is in as precarious  a position as it has ever been in. If all the players didn’t see the urgency before, unless Ritvo succeeds in a big way, they may be looking at a new place of employment/recreation in the near future.

To his credit Ritvo expressed an understanding of the importance of the bettors to the success of racing. Ritvo understands that without the bettors, there is no racing, but I’m not sure he understands exactly who his customers are and what they really want. Ritvo suggested that bettors want two main things: lots of options and field size. He went so far as to say field size was more important than   the quality of the racing. That’s an interesting perspective, but one I can understand. A 12-horse state-bred maiden field should be ripe for some major prices.

I’ve expressed my opinion on both those issues. For me, the issue in racing is not that there are too few betting options available to bettors. In fact, there are far too many bets on each event at most tracks. The second race at the NYRA tracks has win, place, show, exacta, quinella, trifecta, superfecta, daily double, pick-3,  and pick-4. It’s also the second leg of the pick-5. That’s 10 different pools in which to place your money. A bettor with some capitalization might get into a few of them, but how well can your $200 a day guy cover combinations in the more complicated verticals and for how many races? And that doesn’t even count the pick-6 that will be coming up two or three races later. Of course the more bettors get into the complicated verticals, the less they will be in the higher churn pools, the less they will win, and the less they will spend their gambling dollar at the track, and I would think that should be a big deal to a track looking to maximize revenues.

I get it. You line up 10 random people at the track and you’ll get 10 different favorite bets, and so the people running the racetrack believe they are obligated to offer as many of those bets as they can on a respective race. Based on horseracing board discussions, there are arguments to be made on both sides, and I’d certainly be willing to defer to any definitive study on whether the Cheesecake Factory sized betting menu is superior to a smorgasbord focused heavier on the higher churn bets. But I still think you can have the complicated verticals, just fewer of them.

The other issue is the size of the minimum bets. It’s blasphemy to say so, but I don’t favor 10 cent minimums on superfectas or 50 cent minimums on trifectas or the pick-3/4/5. There is no self interest. I simply believe the higher minimums will push people into the higher churn pools where they have a better chance of success and a better chance of staying in the game. I’ve heard the argument on the flip side – if they didn’t have the low minimums the modestly capitalized bettors wouldn’t be able to get into those pools, but raising the minimums is a bit like castor oil used to be for kids – it’s for their own good.

I’m reminded of the Andrew Beyer book, My $50,000 Year at the Races. That’s how much Beyer made essentially betting win and exacta, and that kind of potential would exist 40 years later if those pools were sized as if it was 1977. The horseplayer who is as much gambler as investor is going to struggle having to grind through a month with an expectation to make as much as he dreams he could with one sweet pick-5 win.

I will concede two things. One track deciding to readjust the betting menu while others stay with the really low minimums will likely not work. For something like higher minimums and fewer pools per race to work it really has to be an industry wide effort. Two, I fully understand tracks aren’t going to change as long as they figure they can direct a significant part of the bettor’s bankroll to the higher take bets. Of course in California, they raised the take on exactas to the point where you are probably just as well betting the complex verticals. If Ritvo has any sense about how take affects handle, he’ll quickly petition to drop the exacta take to no more than 18%.

Field size is a trickier issue. It’s clear that too many five or six horse fields is a huge turn-off to bettors. But do we really want more 14 horse fields, especially if six of those horses are outless? Think about the Kentucky Derby. For the last three years I’ve been able to eliminate 8-10 horses, and I’ve only had one of my eliminations finish in the top three. Too many horses may be as bad as too few, especially if we’re talking about lower price maiden races with a lot of inexperienced runners. If you have a 14 horse race and you can toss seven runners, what advantage do you have? Then weigh that against the disadvantages.

I think the ideal number of starters is between 10 and 12. This provides plenty of combinations, doesn’t put too much pressure on the universe of horses in a respective price range to race often, and it limits the potential your horse will lose as a result of bad racing luck or post position.

Ritvo mentioned the potential for Santa Anita to go to a three day a week schedule. I believe what he is really saying is that we need contraction in the sport. Although Ritvo has said that the issue is not a horse shortage but an owner shortage, his solutions to the problem are at the moment somewhat up in the air. The only thing he’s really offered is that more people should become owners because it is a great game, but as the old saying goes, the way to make a small fortune in racing is to start with a large fortune. Until it becomes more affordable (your horse would have to earn $4-5,000 a month to keep your head above water at Santa Anita), or there are significant tax advantages, it’s not going to be easy to attract new owners.

I’ve opined that racing is a three-legged stool consisting of the owners, the trainers and the bettors. Take any leg away, or make any leg longer or shorter than the others, the stool collapses.

We all appreciate Ritvo calling out the bettors as being the base of the racing pyramid, but the reality is that for years they have been at the bottom of the Santa Anita hierarchy, with the owners and trainers ahead of them. When Ritvo was asked about changes, he said, “I’m going to be the guy that goes to the TOC (owners), the trainers’ association, the breeders.” Did you notice any group missing, as usual?

If Ritvo is serious, the bettors will have the same seat at the table as the owners and the horsemen. To this point the bettors have not been well organized. There is no real equivalent of the HBPA or the Thoroughbred Owners of California for horseplayers, although perhaps HANA comes closest. The problem with horseplayers is that they’ve never had to adopt a groupthink sort of philosophy.  It will be very tricky for Ritvo to figure out how to embrace the bettors as he goes through the process of revitalizing the track, and he does so at the risk of causing the trainers and owners to become agitated if pleasing the bettors means the owners and trainers get any less money.

Ritvo has made his opinion on the importance of the bettors and the importance of a reasonable take very public. At this point, if he breaks faith with the bettors and doesn’t metaphorically put his money where his mouth is, he may wind up losing the whole thing.

One last point. For a while now, improvements to the barn area at SA have been the subject of discussion. Ritvo said, “It takes a huge amount of investment to maintain it and to upgrade it, and there is [no return on investment]. It’s a long term play.”

In another case of reading between the lines, what Ritvo is saying is, don’t expect us to invest in the backside until we know we’re going to be around for many more years. But, the most important thing is that nobody better give the slightest consideration to having the bettors pay for this. If anything, money to redo the stable area should come out of purses, which if Ritvo makes the right moves should be able to stay at least at current levels  In other words, since Santa Anita gets a percentage of handle to fund purses, if Ritvo can increase handle, he can have his stable redevelopment fund out of the increased revenue, while trainers and owners won’t have to accept lower purses.

Ritvo is certainly talking the talk. Let’s see given all the barriers he’ll have to break through whether or not he’ll be able to walk the walk.

Belmont June 17

Race 1

  • 6  Cool as You Like
  • 7  Frost Wise
  • 2  Cozzy Spring

Race 2

  • 2  Air Vice Marshal
  • 5  Berks County
  • 2  Rappel 
  • Secondary (3)

Race 3

  • 2  Clipthcouponannie
  • 3  Court Dancer
  • 1  Absatootly

Race 4

  • 1  Lucullan
  • 5  They Shot Sonny
  • 7  Now in a Drive
  • 8  Sentry
  • Secondary (3)

Race 5

  • 5  Electrified
  • 3  Itsinthestars
  • 7  Addictive
  • Secondary (2, 6, 8, 11)

Race 6

  • 2  Deltalina
  • 5  Mojo’s Queen
  • 11  Sasana
  • Secondary (7, 8)

Race 7

  • 6  Rockford
  • 4  Sir Bond
  • 3  Yellow Chips
  • Secondary (1, 2)

Race 8

  • 7  Puca
  • 1  Now Power
  • 6  Gioia Stella
  • 2  Penjade
  • Secondary (4, 5)

Race 9

  • 7  Scarlett Jo Hansen
  • 1  Ciao Bella Mia
  • 4  I’ddrinktoanything
  • Secondary (10, 3)

Belmont July 11

Race 1

  • 1  Five Hearts
  • 7  Miss Aja Brown
  • 4  Barrier to Entry
  • Secondary (5)

Race 2

  • 3  Bileaps and Bounds
  • 6  Moondance Joy
  • 2  Non Finisce Mai
  • Secondary (4, 5)

Race 3

  • 5  Weekela
  • 4  Mo Knows
  • 3  My Impression
  • Secondary (2)

Race 4

  • 5   Risetotheoccassion
  • 2  Day of Fury
  • 6  W. Giles
  • Secondary (3, 4)

Race 5

  • 5  True Love is Yare
  • 8  Time to Flirt
  • 3  Jonquil
  • Secondary (1, 4)

Race 6

  • 6  Animal Posse
  • 7  Manifest Destiny
  • 1  Nevisian Sky
  • Secondary (8, 3)

Race 7

  • 5  Your Secret’s Safe
  • 4  Uncle Mojo
  • 6  Rough Sea
  • Secondary (1, 3)

Race 8

  • 11  Orino
  • 13  Uncle Sigh
  • 7  Startup Nation
  • Secondary (1, 2, 4)

Race 9

  • 6  Chalon
  • 1  Vertical Oak
  • 4  Sadie be Good
  • Secondary (3, 7)

Race 10

  • 11 Psychic Energy
  • 4  Dublin Leprechaun
  • 12  Wintry
  • Secondary (1, 10)

Belmont June 10

Race 1

  • 7  The Big Fundamental
  • 1  Vincento
  • 4  Battle Midway
  • Secondary (3, 5)

Race 2 – The Easy Goer

  • 5  Local Hero
  • 7  West Coast
  • 8  You’re to Blame
  • Secondary (3, 9)
  • Local Hero was probably not ready for the graded 3YO stakes earlier this year, but made a nice improvement in his last race and may have been more of a factor had he not been forced to check.  Asmussen should have him wound nicely for this start. West Coast has not run a bad race yet, and has proven he can ship. You’re to Blame will be running to pick up the pieces if the race breaks down.

Race 3 – The Brooklyn Invitational

  • 5  Tu Brutus
  • 6  Doyouknowsomething
  • 4  Send it In
  • Secondary (1, 7)
  • This edition of the Brooklyn is not filled with obvious mile and a half horses. Tu Brutus looks to have the closest thing to decent distance breeding, and destroyed a field at an eighth of a mile less last out. His two American starts have shown enough talent to earn the win here. Doyouknowsomething has looked a little more competitive with the stretch-out in distance and at 15-1 is worth a second look. Send it In hasn’t finished worse than third since 2015.

Race 4 – The Acorn

  • 5  Benner Island
  • 7  Sweet Loretta
  • 3  Abel Tasman
  • Secondary (8, 1)
  • Benner Island looks perfectly placed at the one turn mile and comes off a big run in the 8 Belles. Should go off at good value. Sweet Loretta ran well in her 2017 debut after ending last year on a sour note by stumbling in the BC Juvenile Fillies. Very well bred for the mile distance. Abel Tasman was an impressive winner of the Kentucky Oaks. The only question is whether her closing style will be effective here.

Race 5 – The Ogden Phipps

  • 5  Songbird
  • 6  Bar of Gold
  • 1  Highway Star
  • Secondary (4, 7)
  • Not a lot of analysis here. If the Songbird of 2016 shows up the race is moot. I’ll use her with longer prices Bar of Gold and Highway Star.

Race 6 – The Jaipur

  • 3  Pure Sensation
  • 8  Canadian Flyer
  • 2  Disco Partner
  • Secondary (4, 1, 10)
  • Pure Sensation ran well in the BC Turf Sprint before laying up for the winter. He came back and ran a decent race to Green Mask at the very short 5F distance in his 2017 debut, and he should be in better shape and at a better distance today. Canadian Flyer looks like another horse that may prefer the 6F distance of this race, and given a couple of so-so races in his last two should be a long price. Disco Partner came out with a strong win in the Elusive Quality and certainly fits with this group. I wouldn’t underestimate the secondary horses, Loose on the Town, Green Mask, and Stormy Liberal.

Race 7 – The Woody Stephens

  • 7  Wild Shot
  • 11  Petrov
  • 10  Long Haul Bay
  • 8  American Anthem
  • Secondary (2, 3, 4)
  • In this very competitive race I went with Wild Shot who powered to a convincing win in the Pat Day. He should be perfect at the 7F distance, he’s had a good foundation this year, and on the improve. Petrov has good sprint breeding and has good pace figures. Long Haul Bay was an impressive winner of the Bay Shore and has a very nice workout pattern for his return. American Anthem ships in for Baffert and looks like a serious contender at the sprint distance.

Race 8 – The Just A Game

  • 2  Roca Rojo
  • 1  Dickinson
  • 4  Harmonize
  • Secondary (5, 6, 7)
  • In another competitive affair, while I looked for something that I could put ahead of the favorite, but in the end Roco Roja is the pick. She’s 6 of 8 in the win column, 3 of 3 over the BEL turf, and 3 of 5 at the distance. Her pace figures don’t have her far ahead of some others, but her consistency puts her on top. Dickinson should be a close second choice having won 5  of her last 6, including a strong win in the Jenny Wiley last out. Harmonize didn’t show much last out at CD, but before that she was consistently competitive. Rider switch to Johnny V might help.

Race 9 – The Metropolitan

  • 5  Sharp Azteca
  • 12  Awesome Slew
  • 2  Rally Cry
  • Secondary (9, 11)
  • In this renewal of the Met Mile Sharp Azteca gets the nod. He’s one of the top milers and showed his credentials with a third in the Godolphin Mile. Prior to that he was competitive in two graded stakes in a row, winning the Hardacre Mile GP Handicap, and running second in the G1 Malibu. Awesome Slew may prefer a little bit more distance than this mile, but he closed well at 7F to finish second at CD in his last out. Has the talent. Rally Cry steps up for Pletcher after running creditably in a couple of allowance races. May be a little ambitious, but he looks to be in top shape.

Race 10 – The Manhattan

  • 4  Time Test
  • 2  Wake Forest
  • 9  Sadler’s Joy
  • Secondary (1, 3, 6, 7)
  • The Manhattan is always one of my favorite races, usually bringing together a group of top turf horses. Time Test shipped over from GB and missed winning the Fort Marcy by the slimmest of margins. He’s a group winner in Europe and always seems to run the same high number. Talented and consistent. Wake Forest is the second of the three Chad Brown runners. He apparently didn’t care for the yielding track but prior to that he showed plenty of talent in Graded events. Sadler’s Joy was another one that may have given slightly less than his best on a yielding track in the Man o’ War. He looks to be in good form heading into this race and at 6-1 is worth a look.

Race 11 – The Belmont Stakes

  • 7  Irish War Cry
  • 3  Gormley
  • 4  J Boys Echo
  • 6  Lookin at Lee
  • 10  Multiplier
  • 2  Tapwrit
  • If you have any money left by this race, it could be a good betting event. First, no horse really sticks out in this field. Second, no horse is particularly well bred for the mile and a half. I’ll admit I was a fan of Irish War Cry in the Derby, and he didn’t get a winning trip in that race, but given the field, he should compete better. Irish War Cry is by Curlin, who should give him some bottom, although his dam side seems to say sprint. I like his running style for this event – generally horses that can stay near the pace have an advantage. He’s got two superior races in the Wood and the Holy Bull, both graded events. I wouldn’t bet the house on him, especially at the likely odds, but I am looking for vindication.  Gormley is listed at 8-1, and if the field was a little better he might easily be double digits. I have a feeling he won’t be that low at post time, although he seems to be a bit of a wiseguy horse. He’s a Grade 1 winner, and he really was one of the horses who got the worst of it in the Derby. His distance breeding isn’t particularly strong but he does have the right running style for the race. Intriguing. J Boys Echo is 15-1 on the ML and could be the best value in the race. His distance breeding is not bad – A.P. Indy is his grandsire – and you can pretty much toss his Derby effort. His Gotham win gives him the field best figure, and he should be cruising just behind the leading pack with an opportunity to be in a good position for the stretch run. I’ll seriously consider win money if he stays at those odds. Make no mistake – Lookin at Lee has some talent, but his running style is just not well suited to the Belmont. He got a very fortunate trip in the Derby and ran ok in the Preakness, but given the overall quality of the field, it’s hard to discount him too much.  Multiplier is another interesting horse at long odds. He won the Illinois Derby, but didn’t show particularly well in the Preakness. I’m a bit ambiguous about the equipment change – blinkers go on – but I can see him in a backhole. Tapwrit gets thrown into the mix as a potential backholer, but I’d be surprised if he could get to the line first. If he stays at his 6-1 ML odds I might not even use him in the backholes.

Race 12

  • 1/1A  Ray’s the Bar/Shalako
  • 7  Conquest Sandman
  • 11  Hello Don Julio
  • 10  Arcature
  • Secondary (3)

Race 13

  • 10  Realm
  • 5  River Echo
  • 1/1A  Ostrolenka/Top Fortitude
  • Secondary (3, 6, 7, 9)

Belmont June 4

Race 1

  • 3  Spun Copper
  • 4  Sweetrayofsunshine
  • 6  Lady Luciano
  • Secondary (1)

Race 2

  • 2  Madame Ambassador
  • 4   Pana Elianne
  • 7  Prima Attrice
  • Secondary (1)

Race 3

  • 4  Tombelaine
  • 1  Siding Spring
  • 7  Dowse’s Beach
  • Secondary (2, 3)

Race 4

  • 3  Lion in Wait
  • 1  Cleo
  • 6  Fiscal Discipline
  • Secondary (2, 8)

Race 5

  • 6  Spotty Zealous
  • 5  American Pioneer
  • 10  Lifelong Dreamer
  • Secondary (1, 7)

Race  6

  • 1  Posse Needed
  • 5  Dancing All Night
  • 6  Silencer
  • Secondary (3)

Race 7

  • 6  Sammy Wonder Stone
  • 5  Cinderela El Crome
  • 3  Noble and True
  • Secondary (1, 2, 4)

Race 8

  • 9  Alabama Bound
  • 7  Pinchbeck
  • 12  Amazing Anne
  • Secondary (8, 5, 3)

Race 9

  • 11  Rossie Val
  • 9  Source Control
  • 5  Pimm’s Cup
  • 3  Zaguri

Belmont June 3

Race 1

  • 5  Correjon
  • 7  Read My Lips
  • 3  My Uncle Al
  • Secondary (6)

Race 2

  • 7  Violet Blue
  • 6  Double Cast
  • 8  Blenheim Palace
  • Secondary (1, 2)

Race 3

  • 6  Monster Mash
  • 4  Brewing
  • 3  All About Ashley
  • Secondary (7)

Race 4

  • 4  Bourbon Empire
  • 2  Fulmer
  • 1  Leaveematthegate
  • Secondary (3, 9)

Race 5

  • 6  River Date
  • 5  Taoiseach
  • 7  John’s Island
  • Secondary (3, 4)

Race 6

  • 5  Volatility Index
  • 4  Lido
  • 8  Zuzanna
  • Secondary (2, 3)

Race 7

  • 2  Cuckoo’s Saloon
  • 4  Fact Check
  • 5  Lucky Town
  • Secondary (9, 8)

Race 8

  • 10  Audrique
  • 6  Tainted Angel
  • 4  Gobi
  • Secondary (5, 8, 9)

Race 9

  • 8  Secretary At War
  • 7  Ticonderoga
  • 9  Good Samaritan
  • Secondary (2, 4, 6)

Race 10

  • 8  Starstruck Kitten
  • 11  Harlan’s Hunch
  • 10  Prognostication
  • Secondary (6, 13)