Aqueduct January 1

Today’s selections are before scratches and changes (and before any partying last night) and assume a fast track.

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Race 1

  • 7  Enduring Warrior

  • 6  Dhamaan

  • 1  Born to Run

Race 2

  • 7  Double Dose

  • 5  Palladian Bridge

  • 2  Majestic Island

  • Secondary (1)

Race 3

  • 4  Mabrouk

  • 1  Cape Lookout

  • 5  Butch Walker

  • Secondary (2, 3)

Race 4

  • 1  Allesino

  • 2  Ransome Note

  • 5  Steady Heat

  • Secondary (6)

Race 5

  • 1/1A  Bustin It/Kenyan

  • 5  Police Escort

  • 4  The Schwam

  • Secondary (6)

Race 6

  • 4  Fire Key

  • 8  Dream On

  • 9  Andesine

  • Secondary (3, 10)

Race 7

  • 4  Blameiton Brooklyn

  • 3  Playthatfunnymusic

  • 1  New York’s Zip

  • Secondary (7)

Race 8

  • 5  True Bet

  • 1  Championofthenile

  • 3  John’s Island

  • Secondary (9, 11)

Race 9

  • 4  Champagne Therapy

  • 8  Melodramatic Miss

  • 7  Katie Ice

  • 3  Chocolate Smoothie

Aqueduct December 31

Race 1

  • 7  Play Me a Memory

  • 2  Zeppole

  • 1  Hey Lady

  • Secondary  (5, 8)

Race 2

  • 4  Damage Control

  • 7  Tasunke Witco

  • 2  All About Ashley

  • Secondary (6, 8, 10)

Race 3

  • 5  Grumplestiltskin

  • 6  Miggsy

  • 2  Steamroller

  • Secondary (1)

Race 4

  • 1  Ekhlaas

  • 5  Bond Vigilante

  • 2  Will Did It

  • Secondary (4)

Race 5

  • 3  Rectify

  • 10 Jeter

  • 2  One Sided

  • Secondary (5, 6, 9)

Race 6

  • 5  Wildcat Belle

  • 3  Road to Perfection

  • 9  Sing for Beauty

  • Secondary (1, 6)

Race 7

  • 7  James Lane

  • 4  Ryder Road

  • 3  J.J. Jake

  • Secondary (5)

Race 8

  • 4  Send It In

  • 2  Wake Up in Malibu

  • 5  Testaosterstone

  • Secondary (6)

Race 9

  • [15}  Ornato

  • [14]  indian Soldier

  • 8  Catapult Jack

  • 7  Clear Surprise

  • 10  Hy’s Buddy Ben

  • Secondary (9)

Aqueduct December 18

Race 1

  • 1  Boomerang Becky

  • 10  B  Three

  • 6  Lady Chocolotta

  • Secondary (2, 4)

Race 2

  • 1a  Street Lord

  • 4  See No More

  • 9  Erik the Red

  • 8  Marriage Fever

  • Secondary (2, 3)

Race 3

  • 1  Imasuperstar

  • 4  Admiral Blue

  • 3  Wingman

  • Secondary (2, 6)

Race 4

  • 2  Catcher in the Sky

  • 5  Bliss to You

  • 1  Fillibustin

  • Secondary (6)

Race 5

  • 2  Jet Black

  • 9  Splashtastic

  • 4  Adventist

  • Secondary (3, 5)

Race 6

  • 6  Stretch’s Stone

  • 7  Carthon

  • 9  Duquesne Whistle

  • Secondary (2, 12)

Race 7

  • 1  Young Anna Lee

  • 9  Familyofroses

  • 4  Perfect Freud

  • Secondary (6, 10)

Race 8

  • 1  Summer Revolution

  • 2  Stallwalkin’ Dude

  • 5  Green Gratto

  • Secondary (4, 8)

Race 9

  • 1  He’s Cheeky

  • 11  Outplay

  • 6  Fastlanefrontman

  • Secondary (2, 9)

Race 10

  • 6  Flatterywillgetyou

  • 4  Frosty Margarita

  • 8  Court Dancer

  • Secondary (1, 2, 9)

Race 11

  • 3  I’m Betty G

  • 11 Cosi Bella

  • 6  Majestic Mist

  • Secondary (2, 7, 10)

Aqueduct December 17

Race 1

  • 4  Carradine

  • 6  Manifest Destiny

  • 1/1A The Caretaker/Mr. Buff

Race 2

  • 7  Holding Aces

  • 3  Tricky Posse

  • 2  Timber

  • Secondary (5, 8)

Race 3

  • 5  Good for the King

  • 3  Eddie’s Gift

  • 2  Bavaro

  • Secondary (1)

Race 4

  • 9  Verdant Pastures

  • 3  Mazmania

  • 11 Land Mine

  • Secondary (7,10)

Race 5

  • 7  Banner Bill

  • 4  Chelios

  • 10  Mr. Palmer

  • Secondary (2, 5, 6)

Race 6

  • 10  Divine Union

  • 5  Lockdown

  • 1  My Golden Rose

  • Secondary (3, 8, 9)

Race 7

  • 4  Tashreeh

  • 1  Data Driven

  • 3  Sir Alfred

  • Secondary (8)

Race 8

  • 6  Bay of Plenty

  • 2  War Story

  • 3  Sunny Ridge

  • Secondary (1, 4)

Race 9

  • 4  Margarita Sunrise

  • 12  Mar Vista Miguel

  • 3  Italian Syndicate

Kent Desormeaux and the Photo Finish

Back when I first started going to the track, photo finish pictures were often posted in a shadow box for all to examine. After one close race, a four horse finish, I went over to check the photo. They had actually posted two photos, both exactly the same but one with the line in front of the winner’s nose and one with the line showing the show finisher.

A man standing next to me starting complaining that they had used the same photo to determine the win and the show. It took me a second to realize he assumed someone had snapped a picture at the moment the first horse hit the finish line, with his complaint being the third place horse hadn’t yet hit the finish line. Of course, the fact was that the nose of the third place horse was also on the finish line. It seems a bit counterintutive, but once you get a proper explanation, it makes total sense.

I asked a few other people if they understood how the photo finish system worked, and more than a few of them understood it like the guy at the photo box. Somebody was snapping pictures at the right moment.

That was 40 years ago, long before everyone had a pocket phone with a digital camera. When people saw a picture they assumed someone had snapped it with a camera.

From: Wikipedia:

Photo-finish cameras were developed during the 1940s and 1950s as a way of reducing cheating in horse racing. Typically photo-finish cameras use strip photography, in which a camera is aimed at the finish line from an elevated position in a tower. It captures only the sequence of events on that line in the vertical dimension. Every part of each racer’s body is shown as it appeared the moment it crossed the line; anything stationary is represented as a horizontal streak. The horizontal position represents time, and time markings along the bottom of the photo can be used to find the exact crossing time of any racer. The high angle allows judges to see the position of every horse in relation to the others.

In other words, when you see the photo finish “picture” the entire horse, including the nose is on the finish line. What the fellow at the shadow box saw was  a portion of the film strip in which the first four horses had crossed the wire, with each respective horse’s nose on the wire.

Technology is improving. Some tracks are going to digital systems – Arlington Park comes to mind –  but regardless of which system they use, there is agreement that the photo finish camera is accurate. Curtis Linnell, executive vice president of wagering analysis and operations for the Thoroughbred Racing Protective Bureau said,

“That is something controlled, and controlled very closely, expertly; by vendors and regulatory associations. (The TRPB) has not seen one instance—not one instance—in which there has been evidence a fraudulent photo finish has been perpetrated.”

A few days ago jockey Kent Desormeaux let the racing world know what he thought of the photo finish system.

“I don’t believe in the validity of the photo finish system, not at all as a matter of fact. I know I’ve been deprived of wins—or the other way around—but I’m pretty certain that we, and you as the Thoroughbred Racing Protective Bureau, need to find a better way to make sure that photo finish was accurate.”

He went on to say,

“I believe they can make the wire where they want. When we’re going 40 miles per hour, you can change the finish by a centimeter and show that the horse’s nose is on the line or isn’t on the line. I’ve seen some races this year, on Breeders’ Cup day, that I don’t think was the true winner. I want horse racing officials to make me believe that the photo finish was real. I don’t believe them. I’ve been in 30,000 races, I get to the wire and raise my stick then get embarrassed and pulled in and told, ‘Well, you didn’t win.’ Been there, done that.”

It was news because Desormeaux is still a well known jockey, but this incident sounds like a good reason for racing to have a Roger Goodell-like commissioner, a guy who can suspend you for using flat footballs.

What was Desormeaux thinking? Does he even understand how the photo finish system works? Racing has enough credibility issues without throwing doubt on something that has been seen as pretty close to foolproof, not just by horse racing, but by a number of other sports.

It was especially egregious for Desormeaux to suggest that even the Breeder’s Cup is not immune from finish line shenanigans. Seriously? Desormeaux wants us to believe that incompetent technology reaches as far as racing’s biggest day?

Desormeaux’s statements were at the least irresponsible, and it is a shame he’s not subject to any sanction for popping off without any proof except his speculation that there were races he was sure he won before the photo finish revealed otherwise. Having someone of Desormeaux’s stature suggest that even the technology being used to ensure horseplayers are getting a fair shake can be manipulated is one more reason racing is seen by even it’s regular players in a negative light.

I don’t know what Desormeaux was hoping to accomplish, but I know what he did accomplish. He threw his sport, the sport that has allowed him to make a very good living, under the bus. He might as well have said, the people who run racing are cheats, that they don’t care about giving horseplayers an even break.

One more distraction. One more reason horse racing is losing players. One more reason to shake your head and wonder how much longer we’ll have to put up wth this absurdity.

Rainbow Pick-6 at Gulfstream Park

Most horseplayers remember the Breeder’s Cup Pick-6 scandal from 2002 in which a programmer at Autotote, Chris Harn, along with two friends, figured out the flaw in Autotote’s system to be the sole winner of a $2.57 million Pick-6.

Once I saw the structure of the ticket – 1 X 1 X 1 X 1 X ALL X ALL – I immediately thought something was fishy. I talked to a number of other horseplayers and there was unanimity. No way this was a bet any experienced horseplayer would make.

I happened to be friends with a high ranking executive at Autotote and I talked with him on the Sunday after the BC. At that time he gave me the company line and guaranteed me that the system was 100% foolproof and secure. I told him to start looking because someone had pulled a fast one.

Now I don’t know how much I had to do with pushing the investigation that ultimately revealed the scheme, but it pointed to an important lesson. Most horseplayers might not understand exactly how the software works, but they can spot a canard eight furlongs away.

On Thursday December 8 Gulfstream’s 20 cent Rainbow 6 was hit for $71,145.66. The Rainbow 6 is only paid out when there is a  single unique ticket sold with all six winners. On days when there is no unique ticket, 70% of that day’s pool goes back to those bettors holding tickets with the most winners while 30% is carried over. The structure of the ticket that hit the bet was five singles to an all in the last leg

8/1/8/1/1/all

and was bought through TVG for $2.40. Was it deja vu all over again?

The horseplayer reaction was a little different this time. Some players noted there are syndicates that buy a large number of small tickets, and perhaps this was one of those. Other players noted that at least two of the horses in the first five legs were suspicious as singles – Bionsway went off at 11-1 and Latent Princess was almost 10-1. Only one of the horses, Policy Portfolio, was a short priced favorite.  The other two singles were 5-1and 3-1. The big separator came in the last race when 42-1 Maria and Beto won.

Given that we had seen a similar situation in the not too distant past, it was fully on TVG or Gulfstream Park to immediately investigate and report to the public. If the play was generated by computer and was part of hundreds of separate tickets, this should show up pretty quickly. Since the ticket was purchased at TVG there should be a history of how many tickets were played, as well as whether this player regularly played such tickets.

Based on anecdotal evidence, and given the changes made by Autotote after the 2002 scandal, the weight of horseplayer opinion is that there is no scandal. But still, given the unusual construction of the bet, the betting public needs an explanation. Even if TVG or investigators up the line were sure there were no shenanigans, the chatter on the ticket went on for a week afterward, far too long in my opinion. When something smells, even slightly, it is the responsibility of racing to immediately address the issue. 

Racing cannot afford to let instances where there is a wisp of smoke spiral into out of control speculation. The integrity of the sport is under attack from a variety of fronts, and the last thing racing needs is a message that says, fool us once, shame on you, fool us twice – well who cares. Many horseplayers believe they are treated with disdain by the industry, mainly because there is never serious pushback from bettors when there is a scandal. A little grumbling, and the hard core go right back to playing.

I hope there is nothing to the Gulfstream Park Rainbow 6 payout, but the longer we don’t get a definitive answer, with clear evidence, the worse it is for racing.

Aqueduct December 11

Race 1

  • 6  Altesino

  • 4  Ransom Note

  • 3  The Orphan Miracle

Race 2

  • 3  Baronet

  • 1  Milaya

  • 5  Marnesia Big Girl

Race 3

  • 1  Chorus Line

  • 2  Wembley

  • 6  Daisy Cutter

  • Secondary (4)

Race 4

  • 7  Yankees Tales

  • 1  Tiznow’s Smile

  • 3  Desert Affair

  • Secondary (4)

Race 5

  • 3  Bullheaded Boy

  • 4  Banner Bill

  • 1  Skill Not Luck

Race 6  

  • 7  Reversiontothemean

  • 2  Zeven

  • 3  Abounding Spirit

Race 7

  • 7  First Service

  • 8  Jules N Rome

  • 1  Leterata

  • 5  Super Surprise

Race 8

  • 7  Jetsam Six

  • 5  Linda Nin

  • 1/1A  Princess Amelia/Worthwhile

  • Secondary (2)

 

Aqueduct December 10

We’re on the inner for the winter. I usually start out about as cold as the weather on the inner until the form settles, so I’ll probably be playing a little lighter than normal. Still look like there are some good bets on the card.

Race 1

  • 2  Missy’s Storm

  • 1/1A  Knockerra/Twofreeknights

  • 5  Unbridledadventure 

Race 2

  • 5  Qual Voltaire

  • 6  Sunset Samurai

  • 7  Sicilia Mike

  • Secondary (2, 8)

Race 3

  • 3  All About Ashley

  • 1  Ready Strike

  • 5  Charming Indy

  • Secondary (all)

Race 4

  • 6  Robbins

  • 1  Category two

  • 2 Hammerin Aamer

  • Secondary (3, 5, 7)

Race 5

  • 2  Comandante

  • 6  Jeter

  • 3  Sol the Freud

  • Secondary (1, 7)

Race 6

  • 5  Little Popsie

  • 7  Ekhlaas

  • 2  Candid Desire

  • Secondary (1)

Race 7

  • 3  Dad’z Laugh

  • 8  Peppi the Hunter

  • 4  Because I’m Happy

  • Secondary (2, 5, 6)

Race 8

  • 6  Paulassilverlining

  • 1  Kelsocait

  • 2  Disco Chick

  • Secondary (2)

Race 9

  • 8  Daggerpoint

  • 2  Buckwellspent

  • 4  No Entiendo  

Aqueduct December 4

Race 1

  • 4  Rock N Bunny

  • 2 Spun Copper

  • Rahy’s Bandit

  • Secondary (3)

Race 2

  • 9  Truth in the Lies

  • 10  Jet Majesty

  • 5  Comet Sixty Two

  • Secondary (1, 2, 3, 11)

Race 3

  • 4  Finding Candy

  • 1  Glowing Ember

  • 5  Yakov

Race 4

  • 2  Boa Sorte

  • 8  Rare Rose

  • 6  Rosa Dorata

  • Secondary (10)

Race 5

  • 12  I’ll Call

  • 9  Chamois

  • 2  Uncle Dave

  • Secondary (2)

Race 6

  • 4  Archumybaby

  • 1  Sand City

  • 6  Dublin Girl

  • Secondary (5, 7, 8)

Race 7

  • 9  Bargaining Table

  • 2  Vagabond

  • 1A  Weather Girl

  • Secondary (5, 7, 8)

Race 8

  • 1  Chorus Line

  • 7  Felini

  • 9  Apologynotaccepted

  • Secondary (3, 4, 5)

Race 9

  • 3  Mission Leader

  • 10  Calculated Risker

  • 7  Set Me Up

  • Secondary (2, 4, 6)

Aqueduct December 3

Race 1

  • 3  Schott

  • 6  Dhamaan

  • 7  Consumer Confidence

  • Secondary (1)

Race 2

  • 10  Alasaal

  • 11  Our Cousin Dick

  • 1  Orleans Avenue

  • Secondary (5, 9)

Race 3

  • 6  Splendid Gold

  • 2  My Won Love

  • 4  Sweetpollypurebred

  • Secondary (5)

Race 4

  • 6  Complicit

  • 3  Divine Miss Grey

  • 11  Pearl

  • Secondary (2, 5, 8)

Race 5

  • 8  Virga

  • 5  Toohottoevenspeak

  • 6  Our Karma

  • Secondary (all)

Race 6

  • 6  Market Sentiment

  • 2 Proven Commodity

  • 3  Will Did It

  • Secondary (all)

Race 7

  • 2  Tricked Up

  • 7  Mighty Mo

  • 4  Runaway Posse

  • 6  Three Perfections

  • Secondary (3, 8, 12)

Race 8

  • 4  Wonder Gal

  • 3  Bar of Gold

  • 7  High Ridge Road

Race 9

  • 2  Cha Cha Heels

  • 11  Emiliana’s Hope

  • 10  Stay Safe Kitten

  • Secondary (3)