Sometimes I feel like the Grinch watching all the Who’s down in Whoville incessantly happy and dancing when it comes to the Kentucky Derby. Oh, the Derby is a good thing on balance for horseracing. People who could care less about horseracing the other 364 days of the year will faithfully spend time watching, and maybe even betting, the so-called “most exciting two minutes in sports.” But it also the most overrated two minutes in racing. It’s a race for three year olds, and not necessarily even the best of the three year old crop. Trust me – if you think that is heresy, it is only because you have been programmed from birth by endless newspaper articles and over the top TV ads to see the Derby as America’s premier racing experience. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Think about the 2014 Derby. The only horse of the top ten Derby finishers that was in the BC Classic at the end of the season was California Chrome. Bayern, Toast of New York and Shared Belief were non factors in May, but they have all finished ahead of Chrome since the Derby. What does that tell you?
I’ve often used the analogy of high school. Three year old race horses in May are the equivalent of high school juniors and seniors. Remember how there was one guy who was already having to shave every day? A girl that could have passed for twentysomething? Same with thoroughbreds. Some of them are physically ahead of the others, but just like with high school eventually everybody catches up. That’s why they run the Breeders Cup in November.
So what is the relevance of all this? The hype associated with the Derby causes it to be weighted too heavily when assessing which horse should be the champion. But as I said above, on balance the Derby is a good thing for racing.
This week the Derby picture started to come into better focus, and unlike some years, about half of the top flight three year olds made it all the way to the Derby. Far From Over, Texas Red, Ami’s Flatter, Daredevil, Tiz Shea D, and Prospect Park are all off the Derby trail, but the presence of the top four more than makes this Derby interesting. Here is my take at this point in no particular order.
AMERICAN PHARAOH dominated the preps in Arkansas, and despite Bob Baffert’s highest endorsement, there are some negatives. His breeding doesn’t suggest a mile and a quarter is comfortable. He’s lightly raced, and really hasn’t been tested by a quality field yet. He isn’t likely to be able to just sit and watch the cheaper speed like he did in the Arkansas Derby, and anxious front runners have to be superior to hold in the Derby. ESPECIALLY when he has a stablemate that might be lapping on his side. I’m really on the fence about this horse – on the track races say the likely favorite deserves the accolades, but everything else says the last eighth of a mile will be beyond his ability. At the moment I’m leaning against AP as the winner, although not as part of the exotics.
CARPE DIEM is another with some ambiguity. He won the Bluegrass in strong fashion, but again didn’t beat any quality challengers. Being a Giant’s Causeway should give him plenty of stamina, but Unbridled Song runners have not had great success in the Derby. Still, on balance, he’s a contender for me.
DORTMUND, like the others, has dominated his weaker competition in California. He’s by a Kentucky Derby winner, so shouldn’t have an issue with the distance, but like the two horses above, he has a close Storm Cat influence, and incredibly Storm Cats have done poorly in the Derby. I said in my last look I’d like t see him make a move from off the pace, and he didn’t. Given the presence of another speed horse (American Pharaoh) you’d have to think his chances are compromised. Still, that SA Derby looked legitimate and the horse is very talented. Previous Derbies have shown that the Baffert horse to watch is usually the one he touts the least, which just may be Dortmund.
UPSTART had not really captured my imagination but now that he’s come down with a fever and missed a breeze, I have a fairly strong inclination to simply drop the horse from contention. I know Violette is giving the “don’t worry if it is just a sinus thing” message, but I think the margins for getting a horse ready are razor thin. Right now he’s a pass for me.
FROSTED is my longshot Derby horse. I really liked the race he ran in the Wood, which may have had the strongest field of any of the preps. He was wide on both turns and closed into a slow pace, and while Tencendour ran the race of his life, Frosted really looked like he was going to run by him the whole stretch. I’m thinking back to the Fountain of Youth where Larry Collmus was all but conceding the race to him at the top of the stretch when he thew the anchor out. McLaughlin made a slew of changes, including a throat procedure, some fast workouts where he had to extend himself to pass horses and a jockey change. Let’s assume that Frosted had won the FOY and then the Wood. Would he be higher than 15th on the Top 10 list? I like that Frosted actually has a point in the last two dosage categories (signifying stamina) and I like that he didn’t leave his best race on the track in one of the preps. I think the Wood is the surprise Derby prep and unless Frosted shows complete dislike for the Churchill Downs surface, he’s where I’m currently leaning.
EL KABEIR was lazy in the Wood but made a reasonable close into the slow pace. I don’t think he’s a likely winner based on all the breeding indicators, but I like his in the money potential.
MUBTAAHIJ is getting a lot of press that goes something like this – no UAE Derby winner has done much when he comes to Kentucky, but THIS one looks like a real threat. One of the strategies we’ll employ is to look at all the deep closers and put them in the back holes, and on that count Mubtaahij qualifies. I’ll just say that despite the tendency for the tri and super to be filled out with deep closers and plodders, the winner has a a turn of speed that it can use when it needs to. I’m giving the pitch-any-UAE-horse side more weight in the Derby and not considering Mubtaahij in the win slot.
I think the winner comes out of the list above, and between American Pharaoh, Dortmund, and Carpe Diem you’ll be lucky to get 5-1. On the other hand, Frosted is at 15-1 on the early lines and I’m not hearing a lot of buzz about the horse. But he has the right breeding and he looks like he’s coming to the race at the top of his condition. If you’re looking for a tri/super strategy, find the deep closers and maybe assume some of the top flight horses can hang on for a piece.
I’ll do one more right before the Derby after we’ve had a chance to look at the workouts.