Saturday April 11 was a day that turned out much better than I thought it might when I first glanced over the card at Aqueduct. I’ve started noting on my selections that my style is to post three horses that I think can win the race and look for the value between the three. I’ve also mentioned that not all top picks are equivalent, and that is an assessment each bettor has to make. Finally, I’ve mentioned that I favor the 50-25-25 distribution of bankroll, or win-exacta-any other bet. I thought this was a good day to see how it all falls together.

Race 1 was a $16K NW3 claiming race with only five going postward. I only selected two horses in this race, 2 John Silver and 4 Blue Chips only. 2 went off at 5-2 while the 4 was 3-2.  On my personal line the 2 was around 8-5 and the 4 around 2-1. Obviously the 4 was not an overlay, and the 2 was hovering on the line for me. In my definition of overlay, the horse has to be at least one and a half times over my line, since this gives a reasonable margin of error. Eventually I decided the race was a no-bet and passed. 2 won the race returning $7.20, 4 finished third.

Race 2 was a $25K NW3 claimer with seven starting. . I selected 2-3-5, Van Frassen, Everydoghashisday, and Can’t Catch Me Now. Van Frassen, as expected went off at 7-5 and was no overlay. On the other hand, Everydoghashisday went off at 10.40-1 and for me was a major overlay. The 5 at 4-1 was close to my odds and therefore not a bet. The play was to bet the 3 to win and an exacta with 2 on top of 3. You might ask why I wouldn’t have reversed the exacta. Simply, any bet with the 3 on top was a win bet, and while the 3-2 certainly would have payed more than the win mutuel, this was really a play in lieu of making a place bet. Remember, I thought the 2 was more likely to win, but the 3 was the value play. You have to overcome your selection oriented mentality to realize the big overlay was the only value win bet. For the sake of calculation, lets use $10 as the win bet play and $5 as the exacta play today (my personal plays are quite a bit larger). In this race then the net profit was $99 ($15 bet, $114 collected).

Race 3 was a $20K open claimer and my selections were 1-2-4, Luckysdream, Shot to Win, and Southbeachsanday. I had the 1 as a strong favorite on my line, but the 1-2 tote board odds were still too low to consider a win bet. Shot to Win went off 3.75-1, and based on my line was a small but bettable overlay. The 4 at 6.80-1 was not an overlay for me. So the bet was a win wager on the 2 and an exacta 1-2. The 1 won the race by the slimmest of margins, with the 2 second and the exacta paying $9.30. This race was very close to a no bet for me, but even with the less desirable outcome, net profit was $8.25.

Race 4 was a MSW and the choices were 4-5-2, Performance Bonus, Good Pick Nick and Summit Moon. 4 went off at 4.30-1, and on my line was not a bettable overlay. 5 went off at 6.30-1 and crept into value range. 2 went off at 10.60-1 and was also in value range. While you’ll read a lot of things that advise against betting two horses in the same race, I think the value proposition will often make you obligated to make that bet. So in this race it was $10 to win on 5, $5 win on 2 (since they weren’t equal no problem reducing the bet), a $2 exacta box 4-5. Only the win bet came in so the net profit was $54.

Race 5 was a statebred allowance and the choices were 5-1-3, Huge Asset, Repent Twice and Groupthink at respective odds of 3.55-1, 3.80-1, 2.10-1. None of the horses was a value play so the race was no bet. The race was won by Native Hero, another 3-1 horse.

Race 6 was a $25K Starter Allowance and the choices were 9-1-2, Bug Juice, Ground Force, and Royal Posse at respective odds of 3.90-1, 1.90-1, 8.50-1. The only win bet was Royal Posse and made a small play with 9 and 1 on top of 2 and a 1-9 exacta box. Ground Force won the race and Bug Juice was edged out of second by Jeter. The net loss was minus $30.

Race 7 was a state-bred allowance and the choices were 5-9-3, Pete’s Fleet, Gypsum Johnny, and Swell at respective odds of 7.80-1, 4.60-1 and 2.85-1. This was a juicy race for me. Gypsum Johnny was a slight overlay, Pete’s Fleet was a much bigger overlay. Swell was not even close to value. On my line the 5 and 9 were fairly close, so I bet both 5 and 9 to win, and played an exacta box. 9 won the race at $11.20, 5 ran second, and the exacta paid $94.50. Net profit was $202 with a $10 win mutuel and a $5 exacta.

Race 8 was the Top Flight Handicap and the choices were 8-2-3, Before You Know It, House Rules, and Joint Return at respective odds of 4.90-1, 0.40-1, and 8.90-1. The 8 was enough of an overlay for a win bet, the 2 was not a win bet and the 3 was on the line for me. I wound up betting both 8 and 3, and betting a 2-8 exacta. 2 won the race, 8 came second and the exacta paid $10.80. Net profit was $7.

Race 9 was a statebred maiden and the choices were 8-1-5, Tricky Zippy, Marc the Sky, and Livi On Love at respective odds of 1.65-1, 11.80-1, and 20.90-1. The 8 was clearly not an overlay for me, but both the 1 and 5 were. I bet both to win and an 8-1 exacta. 8 won the race but neither of the other horses was close. Net loss was $20.

So total for the day was bet$145, collect $459, net profit $314. And that was betting no more than $10 to win and $5 exactas.

If you had wanted to bet a Pick-4 or two, based on my picks you may have missed the first but hit the second. There were also a few possible trifecta bets.

 

The point of this piece was to show how you can make money betting overlays and using the 50-25-25 bankroll distribution. Your picks may have been different than mine, but ask yourself if you had made a value line and determined which horses were overlays, and you employed my strategy of focusing your betting on win and exacta, how much would you have made?