For those not familiar with my selection style, I’m looking to identify the three horses most likely to WIN a race. That means sometimes I’m going to ignore the horse that has a high probability of finishing in the money but a low probability of winning. That also means if you are a vertical bettor (trifectas and superfectas) you may have to dig deeper than the three picks I give out here. I also put the picks in order of their likeliness to win. The top pick, in my mind, has the highest probability of winning. However, one thing to remember about sites that give you three horses to focus on, in some races the top selction is going to be much more likely than the other selections. In other races, the top three selections are more interchangeable. I’m sure you realize, not all top choices are created equal, nor are third choices. I’m looking at how to improve the web site to reflect that thinking. I’ve written about betting overlays, and I believe the value bettors will look at the three choices and determine if any of the three is an overlay. Let me note two examples from yesterday at Aqueduct. In the sixth race my selections were 9-8-10. The 9 went off at 0.60-1, the 8 at 4.20-1 and the 10 at 6.60-1. In this race, for me, the 10 was an overlay, the 9 was not even close for me. The 8 was about even with my line, so not really a bet. It is difficult for a lot of players to consider betting the 10 because they have been conditioned to be selection oriented rather than value oriented, but the only real value win bet in this race was the 10, and perhaps exactas with the 8 and 9 on top of the 10. The 10 won the race and paid $15.20. In the third race at AQU the picks were 2-3-5. The 2 was far dominant in this race and went off at 1.95-1. The 3 went off at 1.95-1 and the 5 went off at 2.05-1. In my mind, the 2 was approaching overlay. The 5 was an underlay and the 3 was a definite underlay. In this race the value bet was a big exacta with the 2 on top of the 3, and maybe a smaller exacta with the 2 on top of 5. The 2 won easily as expected, the 5 easily beat the 3 for the place, keying a $20.80 exacta, an excellent payoff for two horses at about 2-1. In those two races, a value player had a good chance to make a healthy profit. I’ve written about how I set an odds line to determine value (http://halveyonhorseracing.com/?p=147). How you get there is less important than the fact you get there. I’ve also given you a blueprint for betting exactas, Risk Intelligence, including a table that shows you when a combination is a value bet and you can find that here (http://halveyonhorseracing.com/?p=149). DON’T BE SELCTION ORIENTED; BE VALUE ORIENTED. And remember, just because a horse is high odds doesn’t mean it is a good bet – it has to be an overlay and it has to be value.
If you have something else to do, the first three races at AQU might be a good time to do it. They are simply a bad set of races.
Race 1 2-4
John Silver was off a year, came back and did nothing first time but ran a good one last out. Back in shape and he is a major contender. Blue Chips Only drops a bit in price and gets an upgrade to Jose Ortiz.
Race2 2-3-5
Van Frassen is fastest off his second last and has been with better recently. Will be low odds and looks deserving. Everydoghashisday is making his 40th start still in search of his third win. The field is bad enough that he has a real shot. Can’t Catch Me Now has one less start than the 3 and is also looking for win number three. Has some good early foot and may get the jump on these.
Race 3 1-2-4
Luckysdream may be overrated at 4/5 ML but that tells you the quality of the field. Superior early speed and if he runs back to some of his earlier races the ML will be justified. Shot to Win is dropping off a win and has been running consistent figures. Southbeachsandy drops down today in search of a win. More of an in the money type but this is not a powerful field.
Race 4 4-5-2
Performance Bonus is a good-looking Chad Brown trainee with the best lifetime figure in the field. Should much prefer the one turn mile. Bown has high numbers in most categories and the jockey/trainer combination is very strong. Good Pick Nick has been knocking in his last two and should appreciate the distance. Expensive yearling purchase has to be the danger. Tiz for Daddy obviously needed the race. He didn’t have a great finish but certainly is bred well for the distance.
Race 5 5-1-3
Huge Asset has a good turn of early foot but didn’t care much for the AQU slop. Fits well with state-breds at this level. Repent Twice normally has a good pressing style but last out missed the break and closed well to run second. Should revert back to the winning style and is a major contender. Groupthink is the ML favorite but he has had seven chances to get his second win and I’m not sure why today should be the day.
Race 6 9-1-2
Bug Juice should do better in the state-bred ranks. He has a 33% lifetime win recond and owns a win over the main. Ground Force has had good success at seven furlongs. Jason Servis grabbed the horse for $20K and jumped him over his head, drops him back to a more reasonable level. Lots of positives. Royal Posse doesn’t have a great record at AQU but fits the condition well and has a series of good figures leading up to this race.
Race 7 5-9-3
Pete’s Fleet is the price horse selection of the day. He was 10 for 14 in the money last year has a win on the main and is good at the distance. Off his 2014 races he figures the fastest. Gypsum Johnny was claimed last out by Contessa who is not spectacular first off the claim. Has the best last out figure and is looking for three in a row. Swell had some big numbers in 2014. Has been off seven months for low-profile connections but somehow attracts the services of Irad and gets posted as the ML favorite. Have to respect the combination of factors.
Race 8 8-2-4
Before You Know It wired a short field in dominant fashion last out on the inner. Before that was a major player at LRL. Has consistently good speed figures, a 19% trainer and retains Franco. House Rules won the G3 Rampart two months ago at GP and finished second after a troubled start in the G2 Royal Delta. In top shape and a major player in this one. Joint Return has been spending time in the graded ranks – her last two losses were to Untapable and Stopchargingmaria. Has been off since last September but Servis is 25% off the long rest. Rarely runs a bad race and if she is in shape she is a danger.
Race 9 8-1-5
Ticky Zippy has the top figures and will make it over the top sooner or later. Marc the Sky ran her best race on the AQU main last November and figures to improve with the return to that surface. Has a couple of decent works over the BEL training track. Livi On Love was a match for Tricky Zippy last out but ran well first out. Prospects at 15-1.