For those not familiar with my selection style, I’m looking to identify the three horses most likely to WIN a race. That means sometimes I’m going to ignore the horse that has a high probability of finishing in the money but a low probability of winning. That also means if you are a vertical bettor ( tifectas and superfectas) you may have to dig deeper than the three picks I give out here. I also put the picks in order of their likeliness to win. The top pick, in my mind, has the highest probability of winning. However, one thing to remember about sites that give you three horses to focus on, in some races the top selction is going to be much more likely than the other selections. In other races, the top three selections are more interchangeable. I’m sure you realize, not all top choices are created equal, nor are third choices. I’m looking at how to improve the web site to reflect that thinking. I’ve written about betting overlays, and I believe the value bettors will look at the three choices and determine if any of the three is an overlay. Let me note two examples from yesterday at Aqueduct. In the second race my selections were 4-6-3. The 4 went off at 1.45-1, the 6 at 1.55-1 and the 3 at 8.70-1. In this race, for me, the 3 was an overlay, the 4 and 6 were not even close for me. It is difficult for a lot of players to consider betting the three because they have been conditioned to be selection oriented rather than value oriented, but the only value win bet in this race was the 3, and perhaps exactas with the 4 and 6 on top of the 3. The 3 won the race and paid $19.40. In the third race at AQU the picks were 4-2-5. The 4 was far dominant in this race and went off at 0.90-1. The 2 went off at 9.40-1 and the 5 went off at 3-1. In my mind, the 4 was not an overlay; in fact, the tote board odds accurately represented the gelding’s chance of winning, close to 60%. The 5 was an underlay and the 2, while attractive, was barely an overlay. In this race the value bet was a big exacta with the 4 on top of the 2, and maybe a smaller exacta with the 4 on top of 5. The 4 won easily as expected, the 5 barely nudged the 2 for the place, keying a $12.60 exacta. In those two races, a value player had a good chance to make a healthy profit. I’ve written about how I set an odds line to determine value (http://halveyonhorseracing.com/?p=147). How you get there is less important than the fact you get there. DON’T BE SELCTION ORIENTED; BE VALUE ORIENTED. And remember, just because a horse is high odds doesn’t mean it is a good bet – it has to be an overlay and it has to be value.
Race 1 2-3
Suckitupbuster is the best speed in the race but can be faint hearted in the stretch. Still, his best race was at this price and the return to $40K should make him the one to beat. Black Tide drops out of the MSW ranks and back to the sprint distance. He looks to be the main danger.
Race 2 2-3-5
Silver Silence has won on the main and is 2 of 4 at the distance. His best figures are at the mile and the slight drop in price should be in his favor. Supsa has struggled to find the winners circle in 2015 but has been competitive. Certainly has the figures to break through here. Maxana has competitive numbers but it is concerning that she is 0 for 10 on the main and 1 for 12 at the distance. In a poor field her chances come up.
Race 3 1-5
Global Positioning and Damage Control are a powerful entry and either one might vie for favoritism in this group. Damage Control is probably the stronger of the duo. Persuasive Devil is not that far behind the entry and would be no surprise in the winners circle. Has a tendency to finish second, so this might be a cold exacta.
Race 4 4-2-7
The cutely named Marriage Fever (by Stormin Fever out of Betrothed) did nothing on a sloppy Laurel track last out but prior to that was tough with this level. Should have no trouble with the 1 1/8 miles and has superior numbers in his route attempts. Real Estate Rich was claimed by Contessa for $16K three back. Is 1 for 2 on the main and also figures to have no problem with the distance. Fits much better in this group. Springcourt is 2 for 6 on the main and two places in three tries at the distance. He’s been a little more likely to finish in the money but he does have a 15% winning percentage and is better than 50% in the money. Was a close second in his last despite being wide into the stretch.
Race 5 4-7-8
Possessed just snuck under the wire first breaking his maiden and returned in a minor stake where he didn’t disgrace himself. Should like the seven furlong trip and he’s at a better class level today. Lots of other speed to compete with though. Imposing Figure is not likely to like up to his name here, but he looks placed right today. Nice consistent figures, and he has been showing some improvement all along. Street Gent has been successful on the main and switches trainers to the young and improving Raymond Handal. Looks like the best of the front runners.
Race 6 9-8-10
Coming Attraction just missed first out at GP and McGaughey brings him here to break his maiden. Unless one of the firsters is a monster he should be the winner. Bear It goes first time for Clement. I like the workout pattern and should do well with Alvarado up. Yes For Success is the other starter that has shown ability and with improvement could be part of the mix.
Race 7 5-4-3
This is a really tough race, and frankly there isn’t a horse entered that would be a big surprise. I’ll go with Wavell Avenue. She’s 1 for 2 at the distance and 1 for 1 on the main and her figures are enough to give her the nod. Misszippityslewda has the best back figures in the field and figures improvement on the main track. Jacobson has been hot at the current meet. Previous is the strong ML favorite despite jumping up the OC 62K level. Has good figures and wouldn’t be a surprise here.
Race 8 2-5-8
Dance for Joe is in at a price. She’s been consistent and although her only good race was in the slop, she looks to have potential in this field. Lexsoya actually has the best last race figure and looked dangerous until she was impeded in her last. Can’t discount in the win slot. Miss Bellamy has plenty of speed but hasn’t been the distance. Still, she’s bred well enough for the distance and Englehart is cecent with tht move. Can’t discount.