Selections

Saratoga July 27 – Late Pick 4

Since we can’t wait until 2 minutes to post to get the scratches (thanks NYRA) I’m putting this up now. Take the off the turf races for what they are worth.

It looks like the inevitable summer rain has hit paradise, and with two races coming off the turf in the late sequence it looks like big changes and scratches will be coming.

I wanted to do something a little different with the 7th and 10th races today. In cheaper races, especially maiden claiming and NW2, there are often horses that show as non-win types or simply out of all condition. When we are playing a multiple race sequence we can safely eliminate these horses from the win slot, even though they may have competitive numbers and a reasonably high probability of finishing in the money.

RACE 7

This is a NW2 race on for $25000 Claimers off the turf. Scratches are 3, 4, 5, 6, 8. We’ll eliminate right off the top the following horses:

  • My Four Rewards (1 for 15)
  • Kate is a Ten (1 for 19)
  • Echluath(1 for 12)
  • Datts da Boss (1 for 18)
  • Eurokay by Me ((1 for 41)
  • Baal Perazim (1 for 26)
  • Golden Cheetah (1 for 17)

That leaves us three horses and an MTO to handicap. If the race goes off the turf, we’ll throw in the MTO, 13 Mr Rico Is Valid. 7 Sultry Warrior is listed at 5-1 on the morning line for no reason I can discern. She looks to be in poor condition. 2 Lemon and Honey has been knocking around this class a while but was just claimed by Gary Contessa and for that reason I didn’t put her in the non-win class. Contessa gets one more chance to turn the horse around. 11 Tacones has been racing in Florida and certainly doesn’t look outclassed in this group.

In the pick-4 we’ll use some combination of 2-11-13.

RACE 8

8 is scratched. That sucks because I had the best line about 8.

  • 1 NightManeuver has been knocking at the door and has a win and  two thirds on wet tracks. The 1 post is no advantage at 7 furlongs and hopefully by the 8th we’ll know how the track is playing.
  • 2 River Rocks just won his NW1X race and looks competitive here. He should have enough speed to avoid an serious backsplash.
  • 1A Ground Force completes the military jargon entry. He also has 2 wins and 2 seconds on wet tracks. He just won an OC40000 – in fact he has 8 wins overall – so he is in for a tag today.
  • 8 Eastwood – go ahead, make my day. Here’s a broken record at Saratoga – Pletcher/Velasquez, moving up through the conditions, plenty of speed. He’ll be the favorite and probably should be.

RACE 9

The Shuvee is already scheduled for the dirt so the question is who will defect.

  • 2 Flashy American has been consistent for trainer Kenny McPeek, only finishing out the money twice in her last 10 races. She ran creditably in the Delaware Handicap, losing second by a half length to the well-regarded Princess of Sylmar.
  • 3 Antipathy is listed at 9-5 on the ML and on a wet track could go off even shorter. After spending a few races with optional claimers,  she finished third, coincidentally behind Close Hatches and Princess of Sylmar in the Ogden Phipps at odds of 30-1. She has nice numbers and I think her last shows her to be a Graded horse, but 30-1 to even money is a dramatic change.
  • As far as the other runners, S1 Swinger’s Party looks more suited to lesser stakes, 4 Unlimited Budget doesn’t appear to be in top form (I know, Pletcher/Castellano) but you should look at the board to see if she’s live, 5 Stanwyk seems to be a horse that likes to finish close without winning, 6 Hot Stones might be better suited to sprints, and 7 Ambusher looks maybe a cut below.

RACE 10

If we do the same exercise as the 7th race, 2 As Well, 4 Milkyyourway, 8 Zafiro Azul, and 11 Life’s A Stage all get eliminated at a glance. The race will be off the turf, so the MTOs are in. Scartches are 1, 2, 3, 8, 10, 11 ,14. After the scratches all I have are the MTOs

  • Both the MTOs 15 Very Accomplished and 16 Touching My Toes are contenders. But like most MTOs they will be overbet.

That leaves me with 24 combinations. Pretty cheap to get a thrill. As Shapperdacapper put it, tread lightly today.

Selections

Saratoga July 26 – Late Pick-4

Yesterday was a tough day for me. I really got stuck on Charge Now in the Curlin and swung for the fences. Unfortunately, VE Day made a leaping catch at the wall and robbed me of a major score. But today is another day and there is still plenty of money to be made.

RACE 8

The 8th is my sentimental favorite race of the meet, the Amsterdam. It is named for the town I grew up in, originally home to the famous Sanford Farm and where the fabulous Nick Kling is the king of the OTB. It is one of the major prep races for the King’s Bishop at the end of the month.

  • 2 Rock Fall was one of my early picks but was scratched.
  • 4 Coup de Grace goes for top Kentucky trainer Larry Jones. It looks to me like the longer the distance, the less he likes it. He has an impressive off the pace win in the Oh Say at Delaware, and a solid work just five days ago. If he breaks cleanly he’ll have every chance to close by the front runners.
  • With the two scratches 5 Tiznowforamerica makes it into the top three. I’m not sold on the horse, but someone has to complete the trifecta.
  • 7 Noble Moon was another top selection that was scratched.
  • 8 Captain Serious was just nipped in the Dwyer after slicing through statebreds in his first three races. He’s certainly fast enough to easily establish himself on the front and the Dwyer showed major talent.

RACE 9

  • 2 Palace Dreams has been off since November and while she usually shows a lot of competitiveness, I had hesitations because she’s steadily been moving down the class ladder. Not a shocker, but not my first choice.
  • 3 Miz Owell has a nice third on the SAR lawn and her last race on a yielding Belmont turf should have given her plenty of condition. Top pick.
  • 6 Lady’s Lunar Luck is one of those horses that bounces up to restricted stakes and allowances and then rebounds to the optional claiming ranks. She fits here and really takes to the SAR turf.

RACE 10

  • 3 Ulanbator. For all you geography buffs, Ulanbator is the capital of Mongolia. I think he is a bit of a guru longshot, but he’ll be 20-1 while the horse that beat him will be more in the 5-1 range. I think he is improving and might hit the board here.
  • 4 Tonalist. This begins his drive for 3 YO of the year. I think if he wins out, he gets the nod over Chrome. This isn’t sentimentality. It is dispassionate analysis. He’s the best horse in the race, he has a good style, he wins on any kind of track, and he is the quintessential improving 3 YO. He’s not unbeatable, but he is strong.
  • 5 Kid Cruz has done little wrong this spring and early summer. Other than a clunker in the Preakness, he’s shown ability in three restricted stakes and and the Graded Dwyer. I just don’t think you can label him as outless in this group.
  • 7 Wicked Strong. 2-1 on the ML seems pretty ambitious for this horse. He has a closing style that may not be useful given the pace scenario and he seems to be moody about throwing his best into a race.

RACE 11

  • 2 Ballybrit. Gary Contessa has been trying to figure out how to get this horse to the winner’s circle since he claimed him. The fact that he is keeping him at the ALW1X level is enough for me to give him one more chance.
  • 6 Elroi has some decent figures and seems to run about the same each time. I never favor a horse with a plodding style. He is 0 for 2 at SAR. He looks like a contender but he’s hard to fall in love with.
  • 10 Poliziotto would be a perfect choice if his last race was July 2014 instead of 2013. His pace figures put this field away. This will be his 6th race since 2011 which screams physical issues. However, Chad Brown trains and that means he’s in the mix. Of course I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins or is vanned off.
  • 11 Tapitation gets the top nod. Not because he looks so much better than anyone else, but because he isn’t one of those professional NW1X horses yet and his one turf race gives me some confidence. The comment in that race was “rank on bit, climbing.” That tells me that Lezcano was trying to get the horse to relax and the horse wanted to run. I realize jockeys have to follow instructions, but I think pulling a horse like that rarely works out. Ortiz seemed to match better with the horse in an off the turf race last out and he stays with him.
Selections

Saratoga July 25 – Late Pick-4

This one seems full of races where any of five horses would not be a surprise.

RACE 7

  • 2 – Shift Colors. While Shift Colors has had two bad starts, she’s had two very nice finishes. Note that Lopresti worked her out of the gate last time in 36 3/5. I’m going to make her the top selection.
  • 3 – Hope Cross. Anybody but Chad Brown and Javier Castellano and I’m really downgrading the horse. She had the lead in the stretch last time and coughed it up, which normally is a negative. But with the connections she gets a fresh chance.
  • 4 – Sumba Sunset. Another one with 2 place finishes in a row, the last after taking the lead in the stretch. On the other hand the winner of her last did come back to win a NW1X.
  • After taking a second look I’m going to add the 8 Place Card, although honestly the addition is really more of an angle play. I’m still ambiguous on the horse but some good handicappers are high on her chances. I’m posting this well before post time
  • 9 – Mobilize. This is sort of a, if you like Sumba Sunset you have to like Mobilize, pick, although Sumba Sunset has been the better of the two both times they met.
  • 11- Truly Mizzed. Seems much better suited to the mile, but the outside post is a real impediment.

RACE 8

  • 3 – Readthebyline. He ran a monster on May 7 and then came back with a bit of a clunker against better. He has some back class and there is no reason he shouldn’t improve off his last today. I’ll make him the top pick.
  • 6 – MJ Plus has developed a serious case of seconditis, but given in his last nine races he’s been 1st or 2nd, and his total lengths behind in his seven place finishes is about 5 lengths, he is certainly eligible to be the one with his nose in front.
  • 9 – Bug Juice is 3 for 4 at the distance and 2 for 2 at Saratoga. That is more than enough reason to put him in the mix.

RACE 9

I can’t get excited about #1 Commanding Curve, although there will probably be plenty of pace to run at. Update: Commanding Curve is scratched in favor of the Jim Dandy.

  • 3 – Protonico. Pletcher, Castellano, stakes race. This is Pletcher’s Saratoga wheel house.
  • 5- Charge Now. This is going to be my top pick. That Iowa Derby track was a mess, and once he didn’t break his race was over. I think he gets one more chance to prove he belongs.
  • 9 – Joint Custody. 10 of 11 in the money and a terror on the mid-Atlantic circuit. We can give him one shot in the majors.

RACE 10

  • 3 – Itapa is 20-1. I’m not sure why, but the post is good, the connections are good, and I can’t imagine she won’t get the mile trip.
  • 4 Knotty Pine was the front runner, and 5 Jolene was the presser and they finished a nose apart. I’m not sure I could separate them comfortably today.
  • 7 – Forensic is getting top billing for me. She was a bit unimpressive in the stretch in her last, but I like her style and I like her figures.

2-3-4-(8)-9-11/3-6-9/5-3-9/7-3-(4, 5)

Selections

Saratoga July 24 – Late Pick-4

After babbling about how tough the pick-4 was on Wednesday, it actually came down to a horse I wound up substituting for a scratched horse I was going to play (the 1 for the 7 in the 7th), two favorites and a standout 9-1 shot. As it turned out, the pick-4 was actually a bad investment with the favorite in the 10th race. If I had taken the $150 I put into the pick-4 and just bet it on Shankapotomus in the 8th I’d have come out $300 better than the pick-4 and only had to sweat once. On the other hand, if anyone BUT Hot Squeeze had come in I was in for a much bigger collection, so maybe the pick-4 wasn’t such a bad bet. But on the other other hand, none of my other four choices finished second, so $1,318 was as good as I was going to do on the pick-4. Dare I say Friday’s pick-4 is a little easier, at least at first glance.

I’m writing this before scratches and I’m going on David Aragona’s expert analysis that there wasn’t enough rain (yet) to knock any races off the turf.

RACE 7

I think this is the toughest of the four legs. I think the contenders are

  • 2 – Glowing Ember. He is a front running horse, but he doesn’t seem heartless in the stretch. In fact, if Abilio scratched he’d look like lone speed to me. Given his high early, he should have no trouble clearing the turn in front. He does take a slight downgrade in jockey from Castellano to Jose Ortiz, but Ortiz has been riding well. Gotta fear the speed.
  • 3 – Sneaky Kitten. He is a pace presser with that budding seconditis look. 19 starts, 9 seconds. I’m going to say he could win the race, but he is near the bottom of my win probables list.
  • 5 – Captain Gaughen. He’s only had two starts at 4, and both races have been useful. His 4 year-old figures are higher than anything he ran at 3, which is a very good sign. He’s actually won at today’s distance and he has a good tracking style. I’d be surprised if he went off at 12-1.
  • 6 – Abilio is the headache horse. Really fast figures. Plenty of early pop. Graded stakes runner. And on the down side, he’s 0 for ten in the last two years. You can’t leave him out, but I’m not rooting for him to come  in.
  • 8 – Powerful Instinct. He seems well placed, and despite his 2 for 24 record lifetime, he is 3 of 6 in the money in the last two years. This is his second start of the year, he’s trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Javier Castellano and if he goes off at his morning line 9-2 he’s probably an overlay.
  • 11 – Lawyer Jim. It’s his first start of the year after finishing 2013 4 for 8 wins. I like his style, he’s at the right class, and he has a win at Saratoga. I think I would demand more than the 6-1 ML, but he’s in the mix.

So I like 2, 5, and 8 best but would throw in 3, 6, and 11.

RACE 8

How do you make a bottom level claimer part of the late pick-4 and not have it as the last leg?

  • 3 – Wild Kay has speed, and has won at better than 50% in the last two years. I’m not enamored with the low percentage trainer, but the horse certainly isn’t over her head.
  • 6 – Wholelotaroyalty is another one that looks like a world beater in the lower claiming ranks. I think the drop to $16000 at Saratoga was shrewd especially considering those $40000 claimers in the midwest probably attract much better horses overall. Probably the favorite.
  • 7- Heir to Dare is 1 for 10 in the last two years with 4 seconds. She doesn’t seem to show a lot of heart these days but still can run competitively at this level. She certainly doesn’t look like 4-1 to me.

I leaning toward 3, 6 but might use the 7.

RACE 9

This 5 1/2F affair on the turf is very competitive.

  • 1 – Pure Sensation. Big numbers, lots of speed, and a little bit of hesitancy to win. He doesn’t look any better than a restricted stakes horse.
  • 2 – Harpoon. What a disappointment he’s been. 2nd in a Grade 3, to the Gotham, to the Wood, and then getting his butt kicked at OC50K. I don’t want to totally pitch him but I’m not really in his corner either.
  • 4 – Good Bye Greg has been dominant on the synthetic. He’s too damn fast to leave out.
  • 5 – Favorite Tale might go favorite. Unlike Harpoon, he took his Grade 2 licking and then came back to just miss in the Oh Say Stakes at Delaware. This is his level, and he looks more than fast enough to win.

I will use 1, 4, 5 and throw in the 2 just to keep from being thick-headed.

RACE 10

I’m feeling pretty bold about this race.

  • 1 – Bold Senator. Speed from the rail and a competitive figure. Zito and Saez…eh, not all goose bumpy about that combo.
  • 3 – Harmony Bay is one of those Hurdles to Turf runner that I think are often overlooked. He’s only at 3-1 ML but I don’t think you can leave him out.
  • 8 – All Over Me has a really nice race on Jun 4 at BEL, and that certainly makes him competitive, but overall he’s been sort of disappointing at MSW. But, Maker finally drops the horse to a level at which he can win.
  • 12- Larrytheeducator. Call me crazy but I like this horse in this spot. He has plenty of negatives. Yes, his trainer is 8% but he has two seconds in three starts at the Spa. Friedman is trying to make an impact here. Yes, Mejias has only gotten three rides, but I figure when a guy gets that few opportunities he’s going to be riding his ass off. Yes, he was clobbered in his first two races, but then he was moved to the turf and sort of woke up. Yes, he is breaking from the outside, but he showed tactical speed the last time and might just get reasonable position out of the first turn. I don’t think he is a need to lead type. Ok, in reality he needs everything to go perfect, but he’ll be on my tickets.

I’m going to back my bold selection, the 12, but not be so immovable that I won’t be playing around with the 1, 3,  and 8.

Selections

Saratoga July 23 – Late Pick-4

Someone said today’s pick-4 was tough. They underspoke. It is impossible. There are only 10,000 different combinations and it might not be a bad day to box the board.

RACE 7

  1. Treaty Royal is an 8 start maiden with 5 in-the-money finishes. She is one of the many horses dropping from MSW. She will be part of the early pace picture, and based on her pace figures she looks to be competitive.
  2. Galroyale is making her third start. She seems to prefer coming from well off the pace, although given her start problems last out we can’t be sure. She actually ran a better than looked last out, losing all chance at the break and going wide around the turn. She certainly has outs.
  3. It’s Macaroni in another one dropping into MdnCl. Jason Servis and Irad Ortiz are 33% at SAR and she puts the blinkers on.Your guess is as good as mine if this makes a difference.
  4. Arch Tiger is shipping from the always dangerous Jonathan Sheppard and is also dropping into the claiming ranks for the first time. She has 2 seconds and a third in three lifetime starts. Sheppard is always dangerous at the Spa.
  5. Silverama almost won a $40000 MdnCl at Belmont in May and was taken out of that race by Leah Gyarmanti. Her return in a MSW was poor, but if she runs back to the May 15 race she is a contender.
  6. Time for Harlan is another horse getting better. In his last he took the lead in the stretch before getting passed by two horses. You can’t just throw him out either.
  7. All Star Kitten is scratched.
  8. Winner’s Legacy is an 8 start maiden and the drop to MdnCl did wonders for her last time. She is another closer and may get shut out of position, but her times are fast enough for her to qualify
  9. Lateen has no turf starts. I’m going to step out and pitch her.
  10. Beauty Surprise is a Clement runner with plenty of early foot. She’s been a little faint hearted in the stretch, but could wire the field. Clement takes the blinkers off, and perhaps that will allow the horse to relax. Definitely a contender.
  11. One More Song is a firster for Clement. I’d watch the board on this one.
  12. Late Night Artist is another early speed sort with very fast figures. Dale Romans ships her in from CD and drops her into her first MdnCl. Another who would be no surprise.

So that is the first  leg. Maybe two confident eliminations in a 12-horse field. If I’m pressed, I’ll go short with 4, 5, 7, 10, 12

RACE 8

The only thing easier about Race 8 is that there are two fewer horses.

  1. Go Appeal is looking for three in a row. Eddie Kenneally claimed the horse for $50K last out, and drops him the $25K off a win. I think the drop is negative, but he’s still fast enough to win this.
  2. Haverhill doesn’t do much for me. Perhaps an in-the-money horse.
  3. Bernie the Maestro is another dropping 50% in claiming price. He’s an older gelding and I think his positives aren’t that impressive.
  4. Street Shark was claimed last out by the sly Gary Contessa. He brings the horse back in a little over a month at the same price. Another one who wouldn’t be a shock, but if you have to start drawing lines, I think he is one of the horses that goes.
  5. Shankapotamus is a hard-knocking claimer who just won last out for $12500. He has a couple of wins on the Saratoga main and is 5 for 5 in the money. Jeremiah Englehart is a high percentage trainer who does reasonably well first off the claim. His pace figure is good  but he may be pushed at the front. Still, a major player.
  6. Christopher’s Joy ships in from Finger Lakes and although he looks competitive, I just don’t like the FL to SAR angle. At six furlongs he’d be a must use. At seven I am wary.
  7. Bemata is a Chad Brown trainee dropping to his lowest level since last September. He’ll be bet and deservedly so.
  8. Photon is scratched
  9. Real Estate Rich has been over his head lately but has been reasonably competitive.
  10. Love to Run is scratched

My short list of contenders is 1, 5, 7

RACE 9

The featured Grade 2 Lake George is just like the real Lake George – deep, although in this case short.

  1. Daring Kathy is  4 for 5 lifetime but looks a bit outclassed here.
  2. Daring Dancer never got involved in the Wonder Again but was flattered when the first two finishers in that race finished 1-2 in the Belmont Oaks. You simply can’t leave her out.
  3. Duff One doesn’t seem like a graded horse.
  4. Sweet Acclaim is an Irish-bred with a second to Daring Dancer and two other close finishes.
  5. Speed Seeker could be any kind, but she won’t get my money this time.
  6. Little Journey is making he third start in America for Chad Brown, and you leave this horse out at your own peril.
  7. A Little Bit Sassy is definitely a contender, although Saez showed last time why he has trouble getting top mounts. I’d really like this horse if someone told me Saez was sure to get the most out of her.

The picks are 2, 5, 6, 7

RACE 10

If you are live going into the finale I hope you have an all.

  1. All Mine Tonight doesn’t look like a contender to me.
  2. Royal Jest has that negative pattern for me of 7 starts with 4 seconds. She did break her maiden last out so may have figured it out.
  3. Saucon Valley didn’t have the best of trips last time but still only lost by 2 1/4.
  4. Kimmie’s Lucky Star is just one of the many horses in this race that could vie for the backholes, but I don’t think she is a win prospect.
  5. The Lost Tigress tries the turf for the first time and has enough speed to be in the mix.
  6. Summerdale showed a lot first on the turf last out and she definitely makes the contenders list.
  7. Courageous Kitten took 12 starts to break her maiden and ran a decent race in her first with winners. She’s been off since October so I think I might give her a race or two.
  8. Hot Squeeze is a speedball with a win over the Saratoga turf. Speed is ever dangerous so she is a contender.
  9. Official is another one that has enough positives that she wouldn’t be a surprise. She goes into the “use” bucket, but I’m not enthused about her chances.
  10. Maggiesfreudnslip looks up against it.
  11. Mighty Reward is 0 for 3 at Saratoga on the turf. Her latest win was against $20000 claimers last October. Not impossible, but if you have to make a cut I think she goes by the wayside.
  12. White Crane is a professional NW1X runner and while she is a must use in the tri/super, I can’t put her in the win slot.

So the contenders are 3, 5, 6, 8, 9

If you used everyone I mentioned, it would be 5X3X4X5 for a total of $150 in 50 cent pick-4’s. That is a lot to spend for not having brimming confidence.

Handicapping and Betting

How Important is the Trainer in Handicapping

If you don’t want to read any farther, the answer is the trainer is critical to the success of a horse.

In my blog piece about jockeys a few days ago, I mentioned my bias in favor of the horse. If a jockey has the best horse in a race and basically allows that horse to run its race, the vast majority of the time that horse will win.

On the other hand, everything about the horse is in the hands of the trainer. The list of jobs the trainer has is enormous. He has to figure out everything from diet to how to keep a genetically high strung animal from being a head case. The trainer is father, mother, coach, babysitter, amateur doctor, and the best friend a horse has. The horse may have an inherent ability, but only a first-rate trainer can get the maximum results.

If you read some of the reports from the recently completed Welfare and Safety Summit, you realize just how critical the trainer is. How often and how hard he works the horse is incredibly important to the horse’s long term health. The most important thing that I saw come out of that conference is that you have to have the perfect combination of races and gallops to properly strengthen and remodel bone.

The best trainers not only know this, but they know exactly how to accomplish it. Just like jockeys,

The best trainers get the best horses.

There are a bevy of statistics available through TimeformUS and Formulator. If you want to know how a trainer does on a Thursday in September when the temperature is 83 degrees and the horses is coming out of the six post, I’m betting someone has that information.

The problem with handicapping trainers is that we don’t really have interior access to the less public information. Oh, we knew that Alan Jerkens was “the giant killer” because he had a career full of victories over odds-on horses. But we weren’t exactly sure what he did that brought out the best in horses. Was it diet? Some special training technique that he stumbled into? His farrier?  Some concoction of vitamins and herbs he got from a shaman? No, we just took it on faith that every time Jerkens started a horse he was dangerous.

Remember Oscar Barrera, great claiming trainer, a man the Daily News referred to as “the miracle man?” Ray Paulick wrote this about Barrera

“Barrera would claim a horse from an early race on a Wednesday and, if the entry box for Friday was still open, might run it back two days later for a higher claiming price – often winning. He would run that same horse again in another three or four days. And again. And again. Barrera once won six races in a single month with the same horse.”

We never knew for sure whether he had mastered some secret of training, or he was the Linus Pauling of horse medication, but we knew that if he entered a horse three days after claiming him or moved a $40000 plater up to a Grade 1, we bet the horse on faith.

One piece of advice. Even with trainers like Alan Jerkens, you can’t just bet blindly. When you hear someone crow, of course I won – it was Jonathan Sheppard on the turf, take it with a grain of salt. Sheppard may help, but you still have to dig farther than that.

What are the key things to know about trainers?

  • Winning percentage is one thing, but what we really want to know are the sub-statistics. Sprints or routes? Turf or Dirt? Sprints on the turf? Claimers or allowance horses? Two year olds or older?
  • How does a trainer do when he raises/drops a horse in claiming price?
  • Does the trainer select the right spots for his horse? How many times have you seen a horse break his maiden in a $20000 claimer, move up to allowance company and have five miserable races in a row. The trainer needs to place his horse in a spot that will allow him to succeed if he runs his best race.
  • A trainer who is a “big fish in a small pond” moving up to a major track is always dangerous, especially if he has a record of successfully making that move. Check out the 9th race at Saratoga from July 21. You familiar with Brad Cox? He is a 27% trainer from the midwest who came into Saratoga and won with the 22-1 Overton Square. I think these sorts of examples abound. The point is that sometimes small trainers just want to be part of the pageantry of big league racing, but sometimes they have a live runner and they want to pick up the largest part of a $47,000 purse. That buys a lot of oats.
  • Trainers like Todd Pletcher race their horses lightly. They can do that because they are expert at training a horse up to a race. But not every trainer can replace the experience of a race with training. Many modern trainers feel tremendous pressure to show a high winning percentage, so they only try to run race-ready horses. Other trainers believe they must stress a horse gradually. You hear a lot of handicappers talk about “third off a layoff.” Pay close attention to those trainers that race their horses into top condition, and pay attention to whether it is first, second or third off a layoff.
  • Look at the workout pattern for certain trainers. Bob Baffert likes to work his horses quickly, often to the point where he is criticized for leaving a horse’s race on the training track if he loses. Every trainer has a preference for how hard or long to work horses. Know what it is and use it to your advantage.
  • While we are talking about that, how in the world are you supposed to know how well meant a first-time starter is off three ordinary four furlong workouts and a five furlong workout? You’re supposed to know whether the trainer has a documented history of success with that training pattern.
  • Look at horses in the paddock. Do they have healthy coats? Are the horses so keyed up they’ll use up most of their energy before the race?
  • Look at the medications the trainer uses. Trust me, it is a much longer list than Lasix and Bute. Do you know the medication rules for your state? They are readily available on line. The New York State Gaming Commission actually has an equine steroid administration log. If your state doesn’t make medication logs available, then you need to make a stink with your local racing commission.
  • Does the trainer have a specific go-to jockey in a specific type of race? Everyone knows Pletcher-Velasquez or Baffert-Garcia. But will the trainer go elsewhere when he has a horse he needs ridden in a specific way?
  • The Racing Form and TimeformUS publish statistics on how well a trainer does first after a claim. But can we break that statistic down farther? What happens if the trainer moves a horse up or down after a claim? How about if he runs the horse back in a week? How about if he waits two or three months? The micro statistics are just as important as the macro statistics.
  • How does a trainer do early in a meet? Inevitably some trainers bring their horses ready to run and others need time to get into the swing of the meet. Look at previous meet statistics and use that information to your best advantage. It is one of the few statistics you actually have to do some legwork to find out.

I’ll say something I say a lot. If the only information you use is the information everybody has, you are less likely to get a price on your horse. Either you need to put information together in unique ways, or you need to put together unique information.

Tell me what I missed? The great thing about a blog is it can always be edited!

Handicapping and Betting

Public Handicapping

My blog is a combination of thoughtful, researched articles on betting and handicapping and more off the top opinion pieces. This is the latter.

Last Sunday, I did a stint as a public handicapper at Arapahoe Park in Colorado. I’ve done public stuff before, but this was a little more intense. Before each race the announcer, Jonathan Horowitz, would throw it down to me in the paddock and I would give out three horses.

I mentioned the winner in 6 of 9 races, and I swept the trifecta in two. I thought is was at best a fair day, but the track folks seemed to be really excited and asked me back next week. So, if everything works out, I’ll be back in the paddock on Sunday.

The reports I got from my support section were pretty positive. As expected I stumbled through a couple of races, but eventually I smoothed out. Jonathan and the Arapahoe Park staff were incredibly welcoming and helpful and I really gained a lot of respect for how hard their job is.

I actually had a couple of stumbles. The 6 horse in a race I was doing was the third horse I mentioned and I kept calling him the 3. I got the name right though. In an funny follow up, the 6 finished second and the 3, whom I didn’t actually mention, finished 3rd. There were three scratches on the day, and incredibly enough all three of them were horses I was selecting. That was a scramble.

Here is the best story of the day. I gave out the 7 horse in one race. Now from where they had me on camera, I can only see the first part of the stretch. I see the 7 start to seriously back out of the race, but I can’t really tell more than that.

The cameraman comes back from filming in the winner’s enclosure and says, “the 7 died.” I said, “I know, he backed up big time in the stretch.” The cameraman said, “No, he really died.”

Strangely, I’ve been going to the races long enough that it’s the third time I’ve have a horse pass away during a race.

Handicapping and Betting, Stories and Reporting

Shine Again at Saratoga

Today’s Shine Again Stakes was about as thrilling as a four horse race gets. Better Lucky came  from well out of it to snatch a four-horse photo.

The horse that may have been best was Grace Hall. She was blasted in the lane by Miss Aurelia and despite being knocked offstride, she recovered to miss winning by a head.

Do I know for absolute certain that Grace Hall would have won the race without the bumping incident? Of course not. But is it highly conceivable that having to check cost her a half a length? Of course it is.

There was a brief if not spirited discussion about the role jockeys Joel Rosario (Grace Hall) and Johnny Velasquez (Miss Aurelia) may have played in the outcome. One side said, Grace Hall was just in the wrong place at the wrong time. That’s horseracing. The other side said, in a four horse race, can’t you find a way to make sure your horse is clear of any potential trouble?

I’ll admit to my bias. I tend to think that it is 90% horse and 10% jockey, and if that is the case, it is far more likely that a jockey will make an error that causes the horse to lose than somehow find a way to get a horse who isn’t best to win. I watched the replay a number of times. I will concede that if Johnny V didn’t foul Grace Hall she had a lane to run in and probably would have won the race. As it was, she was bumped, lost some momentum and had to pull to the outside to finish the race.

I’m still going to give Rosario some of the blame. It was a four horse race. How in the world do you not have the ability to put your horse in a spot that allows it to run clear the whole race? How many horses could she have possibly needed to circle? Instead, Rosario allowed Velasquez to dictate Grace Hall’s race. Rosario stuck Grace Hall on the rail and Velasquez immediately made sure he kept her right there. Now that is smart race riding. Kudos to Velasquez and a little bit of frustration with Rosario. Bridgehampton, the leader, wasn’t going to let Grace Hall through on the inside. In fact, only bad things could happen from the position Rosario had her. Rosario had to make sure Miss Aurelia moved out enough to give him a lane, which was no sure thing. He had to avoid running up on Bridgehampton. And given it was a four horse field, Rosario chose to put himself in the position where the highest probability of trouble existed.

No, it wasn’t Rosario’s fault Miss Aurelia came over. But if you read my blog on jockeys posted the other day, I listed the jockey’s responsibilities.

  1. They break a horse in a way that allows the horse to establish the proper position.
  2. They steer the horse clear of trouble.
  3. They keep the horse on the live part of the racetrack.
  4. They understand energy distribution for a particular animal.
  5. They make sure their horse will have a clear lane to run in.
  6. They understand quirky trips (like 6 1/2F downhill at SA)at certain tracks.
  7. They move the horse at the right time.
  8. They relax the horse at the right time.
  9. They get the horse to change leads at the right time.
  10. They keep the horse running in a straight line.

It’s not an easy job, but  if the jockey has the best horse, and that horse doesn’t win, he has to shoulder some of the blame. He did something wrong, even if it was putting a horse in what turns out to be the wrong place at the wrong time. I’m just going to have a hard time believing Rosario couldn’t have done a better job of putting Grace Hall in the most advantageous spot to win the race.

Opinions, Stories and Reporting

Will Bobby Flay Save Racing?

Let me start by saying anytime a celebrity gets involved in horseracing, it is a positive thing. Bobby Flay, Jim Rome, Joe Torre, Drew Brees and others have been bitten by the horseracing bug. But Flay has taken it a step farther. Not only does he own, but he seems determined to make himself as well known in horseracing as he is as Iron Chef on the Food Network.

Will Farish, Jr – are you ready for a throwdown?

Flay decided to challenge Will Farish, Jr. for a seat on the Breeder’s Cup Board of Directors. That’s the same Will Faish, Jr. from Lane’s End farm. That would be the same Lane’s End Farm where A.P. Indy, Curlin and Zenyatta currently reside. Will Farish, Jr., the chairman of the Breeder’s Cup Board. Racing royalty versus the guy that owns, announces races, and hands out trophies in the winner’s circle from coast to coast.

Flay actually tied Farish in the original vote and there will be a runoff next week.

The question is, would Bobby Flay be good for the Breeder’s Cup and racing in general?

I’m on the fence. Oh, I don’t question Flay’s sincerity for a moment. I think he truly loves horseracing as much as he loves whipping out southwestern food at his many restaurants. But I have to wonder how the ubiquitous Flay can spread himself much thinner than he is already spread.

On the other hand, if horseracing has a novella of problems, you have to say a lot of them occurred while the Will Farish, Jr’s of the world have been at the helm. In all fairness the Breeder’s Cup is a pretty successful endeavor so the Board has done a pretty fair job of promoting it. But therein is the rub. Everybody loves the Triple Crown and the Breeder’s Cup, and they are big enough to attract sizable TV audiences. But it isn’t just those events that need attention.

Bobby Flay wasn’t raised on a big farm in the bluegrass of Kentucky. He is a New York City boy, and he still has a soft spot for the Big Apple. He’s an outsider, a man who wasn’t born into money but worked tirelessly to make himself famous, and wealthy, as a chef. Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good, and Flay happened to be born at a time when being a chef could produce as much celebrity as being a movie star. Can you imagine in 1964 some TV executive saying, let’s start a TV network with cooking shows and cooking games all day? Probably made as much sense as the guy who pitched a 24-hour weather channel.

In short, Bobby Flay is an outsider elbowing his way into the boardroom of racing biggest event.

Could racing use the new blood? Absolutely. Is Bobby Flay the right guy? I don’t know. I’d like to believe he will represent the everyman on the BC Board, but frankly, other than elevating his stock in racing, I’m not sure what he represents to the $2 railbird. As far as the people who voted for Flay, I think they made an obviously self-serving move at the expense of Will Farish, Jr. Putting Flay in the spotlight can only help their marketing efforts.

It’s not a fight that we can likely influence. The BC board is an insider’s game. But I’m going to take the fact that upstart Flay can knock off racing royalty as a positive. Who knows. Perhaps a whole new cohort of wannabe Iron Chefs will get into racing just like their hero Bobby Flay.

I’m not sure he’s the underdog, but I like the idea of upsetting some apple carts. Let’s have the throwdown.

Selections

Saratoga July 21 – Late Pick-4

Other than the 8th race feature, I think the late pick-4 is up in the air.

RACE 6

This race is a chaotic maiden claimer for state breds at a mile and a sixteenth on the inner turf.

#3 Fire Ship is a nine start maiden. For me as horses approach double digit starts without a win I downgrade their win chances. However, when a horse makes a dramatic turnaround due to a major change, I can ignore the increasing number of starts without a win. Fire Ship switched to the grass in his last and dropped into a maiden claimer, two pretty dramatic changes. Plus she showed big early speed at today’s distance and ran the best pace figure of her life. I think she deserves a second chance.

#4 Dixie Gem is a three start maiden coming out of MSW turf races. One of the best angles in racing is to back horses dropping from MSW into maiden claimers. She has a competitive figure and that combination is enough for me to put her in the mix.

There are a number of other horses with chances. I noted the #6 Bi the LIght of Day and the #10 Kevin’s Steel but the are in that category of more starts than I am comfortable with. The #8 Sweetdreamsaboutme only has two races, but in the last she showed a tremendous close, so I’ll assume she will be coming again in the stretch. Finally the #1 Make Your Point has one nice race on the turf at Belmont and a competitive pace figure.

“A” Horses – 3, 4

“B” Horses – 1, 6, 8, 10

RACE 7

It is another wide open five and a half furlong affair on the turf.

#4 Danceteria only has two wins in eight starts, but both were at six furlongs with one coming on the turf. He has plenty of early foot and should be tough to pass in the stretch.

#5 Mr. Rosenthal is a lightly raced six year old with 9 of 13 in the money on the turf. His second last was an excellent race and if he duplicates that race he’ll be right there.

#9 Dreamsgonewild has a win and a third on the Saratoga turf and if 5 for 5 in the money at the distance. #10 Sandy’s Slew has a win in her only start on the Saratoga turf and is coming off a nice second in a optional claimer at Belmont where she beat Mr. Rosenthal. #11 is shipping in from Presque Isle but definitely fits the class level. You may not get odds as good as you’ll see today on him for a while if he wins the race.

“A” Horses – 4, 5

“B” Horses – 8, 9, 10

RACE 8

With the scratches of Toasting and Angel’s Glory a six horse race becomes a four horse race. Actually a two horse race stays a two horse race.

#2 Grace Hall has obviously had some physical setbacks and is racing her third back after a 13 month layoff. She has finished second in both her 2014 starts and both those races were graded stakes. She seems more of a two turn horse but runs consistently well. She has one win on the Saratoga dirt and if she can recapture her 2012 form she has the right to win.

#4 My Miss Aurelia is a multiple G1 winner and 3 for 3 on the Saratoga main. Todd Pletcher takes over the training duties from Steve Assmussen in 2014. She is another runner who has had physical issues but her race in the Azeri should give enough confidence to back her in this spot.

“A” Horses – 2,4

RACE 9

This 8 furlong mile NW2 claiming event on the turf is also a fairly wide open affair.

#3 Belly of the Whale has only four starts and really hasn’t run poorly yet. He has the fastest pace figure and adds blinkers today. The class drop from AlwNW1X is actually a little troubling. At three years old this horse could have a lot of upside, but perhaps Peachtree Stables needs the win.

#4 Honor the Kitten is 3 of 6 in the money, although his one win came  on the synthetic at Keeneland. He has competitive pace figures and the switch to Castellano should help.

# 9 Handsome Dennis has twleve starts with one win but has done his best racing on the grass. # 10 H Town Brown just broke his maiden at Arlington Park and may be able to continue his winning ways. #6 Big Island Boy was claimed out of his last by Steve Assumussen. That could be enough of a positive for him to light the boar.

“A” Horses – 3, 4

“B” Horses – 6, 9, 10