Selections

Saratoga Jul 19 – Late Pick-4

The last four at Saratoga look brutal from a handicapping perspective. All four are on the turf at route distances.

Race 8

The 8th is a ALW NW1X at a mile on the inner turf. I’m  giving the nod to #9 Tasmona. The Chad Brown trainee only has three starts and she has been brought along carefully for her Saratoga debut. She should be able to establish a good spot even though she is coming out of the 9 post, and the combination of Brown and Castellano has been deadly everywhere, including Saratoga. I don’t think she is worth more than her morning line, but 4-1 would be a fair price. #5 Stock Fund is one of those horses I am wary about putting in the win slot, but seem a high probability for one of the lesser awards. That 28-3-11-5 record makes me wonder about the horse’s heart, but her three wins have all come in her last six races, so perhaps she’s decided being an also ran isn’t what she wants to do. #4 Mei Ling is an interesting horse. She has yet to run on the turf, but her dirt figures are very competitive. She is an Empire Maker out of a Seeking the Gold mare, so the turf shouldn’t be a problem. The #11 Weave only seems to be getting better and better. In her last race she encountered all kinds of trouble, including being blocked, wide into the stretch and having to check around a fallen horse. I’m not sure if she was best in that race, but she was never given a chance to show her best. She is only listed at 5-1 on the ML, but may be one of the horses that takes action.

Race 9

The 9th is an optional claimer on the turf. The ML favorite at 3-1 is #8 Battle Force, and that shows the competitiveness of the race. I’m giving the nod to #9 North Star Boy, an Irish bred who has been generally consistent over the last two years. On the down side she hasn’t been able to crack the winner’s circle in 2014, but she does look to be in good form. #2 Pyrite Mountain is starting for the first time in the Todd Pletcher barn, and he wouldn’t have to improve the horse much to find the winners enclosure. He does have a win over the Saratoga turf. #7 Shock Leader’s last two races have been his best, and although he makes a slight jump in class he looks competitive. #4 Hard Enough won the Grade 2 Red Bank at Monmouth in May and led the field to the stretch in the Grade 2 Monmouth three weeks later. He should be the controlling pace, although I question his heart in the stretch.

Race 10

The Grade 1 Diana brings together some of the top turf fillies in the country. #4 Emollient should vie for favoritism with #8 Alterite and both are deserving picks. Remember one of my angles on the turf – Grade 1 horses beat Grade 2 horses, Grade 2 beats Grade 3. Emollient is a multiple Grad 1 winner and just barely missed notching another G1 in the Gamely at Santa Anita. She has plenty of tactical speed and should get good position from the 4 post. Alterite is another Grade 1 winner and is multiple G1 placed. She has a nice pressing style that should keep her well positioned, and the Brown/Castellano coupling has been powerful at the Spa. #9 Stephanie’s Kitten is another Chad Brown trainee that has been put in the capable riding hands of Frankie Dettori today. Stephanie’s Kitten has a win over the Saratoga turf, and finished a short half-length from the win in last year’s Diana. She should be one of the horse’s closing in the stretch, and if anyone can time that move correctly it is Dettori. #3 Somali Lemonade is a sentimental pick. I touted her in my 2011 Breeder’s Cup analysis for Horseplayer Magazine and have been waiting for her to emerge as a Grade 1 filly/mare since. Lately she has shown nothing but a front-running style, and could have a lot to say about the pace in this race.

Race 11

The nightcap may be a nightmare as some NW1X horses negotiate a mile and a sixteenth on the Mellon Turf. I’m going to go against the grain and take the 15-1 ML #3 Alarmed Ndangerous. I tend to like horses in effective NW2 races that have proven to be winners, and Alarmed Ndangerous has a creditable record of 16-3-4-4. He is a bit of a plodder, and you always have to worry about those types getting buried in the pack, but this is only his second start of the year and he could improve enough to win if he stays out of trouble. #2 All Included ran a powerful race first time on the turf, and seems to be the “smart money” horse. Given the ambiguities in this race, expect All Included to get strong action. If he is as good as the insiders think, he may leave this field behind just as he did his last one. #6 Alakazan Alakazan tried to steal the Maker’s Mark mile from Wise Dan, but was exposed as a lower class horse in the stretch. The Brazilian bred has yet to cross the wire first in America, but does get the services of the capable Johhny V for trainer Graham Motion. #10 Stableford has not been getting great trips since coming to America, and being on the outside today probably won’t help. Still, he fits in the field and at this distance.

So the numbers are

9-5-4-11/9-2-7-2/4-8-9-(3)/3-2-6-10

Selections

Saratoga Jul 18 – Late Pick-4

Update: It was the best of times, it was the worst of times in the Pick-4. The best of times because I hit it, the worst of times because the scratches had it paying $89. In the 7th race Tiz Sardonic Joe threw a shoe before the race. They decided to let him run, but for purse money only. As expected the #8 Joe’s Blazing Aaron sprinted to the lead and wired the field with “Shoeless Joe” making a race out of it for second. Monument Hill picked up the payoff place. So everyone who had the 3 wound up with the 8, which kept a lot of the crowd alive for the Pick-4. The 8th race had four early scratches so a field of only seven went postward. As expected Adventure Love led all the way around the track with Kiss Me Lola second and Ballerina Belle third. The 9th race went to Tourist with Ring Weekend second and Storming Inti third. The 10th race was my strongest play, Jet Majesty. Jet Majesty was hanging around as the second choice to Winter Wish, but unfortunately Winter Wish went cuckoo for cocoa puffs in the paddock and was scratched. So all the Winter Wish money went to Jet Majesty, dropping the Pick-4 pay from $160 to $89. It may have been closer to $300 if Tiz Sardonic Joe stayed in the 7th race and won and Winter Wish stayed in the 10th and won. But, it was a hit to start the season. 

Opening day at the Spa is always testing for handicappers. Shippers from different tracks, layoff horses that have been prepping for Saratoga, and horses hoping to carry over Belmont form. You have to love that the late pick-4 has mostly full fields entered. I’d be shocked if the late pick-4 wasn’t a big one.

Race 7

There is a lot of ambiguity in this race. #2 Monument Hill has a lot of positives. George Weaver does well at Saratoga, the horse seems to be at the right class and distance, his pace figures are competitive, he has a second over the track, and he should be able to establish good position from the inside post on the tighter-turned inner turf course. #8 Joe’s Blazing Aaron should go off as the favorite. With his natural speed he should be able to clear the horses to his inside, but that hard run to the first turn might take something out of him. He is 0 for 7 at the distance and 0 for 2 on the Saratoga turf. On the positive side, Michael Maker and Javier Castellano have formed a potent combination, and there is no reason to worry about the layoff since late May. Still, with only one win in the last two years, I wouldn’t call him a standout. I suspect either he wires the field or airballs. #3 Tiz Sardonic Joe is a lightly raced 5 year-old that seems to be in good condition. He was black type stakes placed a little over a year ago and is 2 for 3 on the Saratoga Turf. Having Frankie Dettori up can’t hurt. If you are going deep in your pick-4’s, the #4, #5, and #7 at least have the potential to upset.

Race 8

Because of Saratoga’s configuration, turf sprint races are run at the 5 1/2 furlong distance. #10 Ballerina Belle might be the best closer in the race, but she may have trouble if she doesn’t get a good early position. If she is no more than three or four back entering the turn, she could run by them all. #3 Adventure Love is a turf sprint specialist who gets the services of Frankie Dettori. She comes off a strong win at Arlington Park at today’s distance. Her pace figure makes her competitive and she should be able to establish a strategic position. #4 Kiss Me Lola has a win and a close second on the Saratoga turf and lately has been staying well in turf sprints. If she runs back to last year’s Saratoga’s winning race, she should notch her second win. The five year-old mare #1 Zamquick just broke her maiden at five furlongs and could improve now that she’s learned to win.

Race 9

#1 Storming Inti and #5 Tourist should vie for favoritism, and rightly so. #1 Storming Inti is for 4 for 9 lifetime and is graded stakes placed. He’s had a consistent career and even has a third at Saratoga. #5 Tourist won his first race for winners in hand by open lengths. Since switching the horse to the turf trainer Billy Mott has seen the horse blossom. She will be very tough today. #7 Ring Weekend has been way over his head since winning the Tampa Bay Derby. He does have a nice second on the Gulfstream Park turf and trainer Graham Motion seems to have put him in a more reasonable spot. #2 Cabo Cat is also well spotted and has been very competitive in his last three.

Race 10

The nightcap  is a 1 1/16 mile turf maiden for state-breds. In these races it either looks obvious or totally chaotic. Today it is closer to chaos.  If you read my piece an angle handicapping, you would know one of the strongest angles, especially in maiden races, is betting a horse with figures from the previous year higher than any other horse has from this year. #9 Jet Majesty fits that bill. The Wesley Ward trainee opened up her career in a turf sprint at Belmont and ran respectably. She then came back a month later and finished third by a length to males before laying up over the winter. Ward does well with layoff horses and the switch from Abel Lezcano to Frankie Dettori is about as positive as it gets. The rest of the field all have their negative and positives. #1 Resolutely hasn’t started since last year at Saratoga, but does have a third over the course. #8 Winter Wish had an eventful race last time, being steadied at the start and racing six wide into the stretch.  She has figures that should put her in the mix. #11 Chasing Paradise has raced consistently over the turf and should do well if she gains good early position. #5 Traipse in Utopia was well over her head the last time but should be charging at the end.

Handicapping and Betting

How Important is the Jockey in Handicapping?

In most races AT A RESPECTIVE TRACK, the answer is, not that important. In most races, the horse is about 90% of the winning formula if the horse gets a reasonably competent ride. If you gave me a Ferrari and Dale Earnhardt a Hyundai Elantra I’m pretty sure I’m winning that battle. My certainty comes from the fact that people who drive with me often ask if I think I am at Daytona. Well that and the fact a Ferrari is just way faster than an Elantra. But Earnhardt might finish closer than my next door neighbor.

The jockey helps a horse to win in the following ways:

  • They break a horse in a way that allows the horse to establish the proper position.
  • They steer the horse clear of trouble.
  • They keep the horse on the live part of the racetrack.
  • They make sure their horse will have a clear lane to run in.
  • They understand energy distribution for a particular animal.
  • They understand quirky trips (like 6 1/2F downhill at SA)at certain tracks.
  • They move the horse at the right time.
  • They relax the horse at the right time.
  • They get the horse to change leads at the right time.
  • They keep the horse running in a straight line.

When they do these things they give the horse the best chance to win, and yes, better jockeys do it better than poorer jockeys. But don’t believe that putting Javier Castellano on a 1 for 27 horse in a NW2 race is suddenly going to change the horse from also ran to winner. If you like a horse and one of the top 10 or so riders is in the saddle, you’re fine.

For anyone considering jockey as a career, I am giving you the absolute secret of success. Ready?

GET THE BEST HORSES.

In my experience, and this is anecdotal, for every time I get a brilliant ride, I get about five bonehead rides and 25 my-horse-did/didn’t-have-it-today rides where the jockey was irrelevant.

Yes, if you lose a race with what you think is the best horse it is not unusual to give the jockey some of the blame. I had a race at Belmont last Sunday where a jockey who has actually won a Breeder’s Cup race, broke the horse I bet on sharply, and instead of playing to his presser running style,  strangled him back to last and made a big sustained close in the stretch to finish second. You’ll never convince me I got the right ride.

Jockey’s lose races with poor rides far more often than they win races with brilliant rides, but about 90% of the time the win/loss has less to do with the jockey than the horse.

I’m not dogging jockeys. They have a job with a danger quotient about the same as great white shark biologists. In fact, I’ll say that if most of us got treated at work as shabbily as jockeys, unions would make a comeback like it was 1914 instead of 2014. That doesn’t change my opinion about handicapping a race. Most riders at your respective race meet are competent within their peer group, and if you give them the right horse they have a chance to win.

When a jockey makes it on a particular circuit, it is definitely related to hard work and staying in great condition. But at the risk of repeating myself, the difference between the top jockey at a meet and the 10th best on the standings is more a matter of the horses they are getting. Johnny Velasquez is a great rider, but it didn’t hurt that he was getting all of Todd Pletcher’s horses. Travis Wales, the leading rider at Arapahoe Park, is probably never going to ride in the Kentucky Derby, but not because he would have turned California Chrome into an also ran. And if he went to New York to ride, he’d be lucky to get a mount.

THE BEST JOCKEYS GET THE BEST HORSES, AND THE BEST HORSES GET THE BEST JOCKEYS.

Here are some other questions I get asked.

Are some jockeys better on the dirt? Yes, they are called the leading riders at the track.

Are some jockeys better on the turf? Yes, they are called the leading riders at the track.

And that is pretty much the answer to all your questions.

Stories and Reporting

Slot Machines at Arapahoe Park Gets on Fall Ballot

Once again Arapahoe Park is going after a bigger slice of the gambling dollar by getting a measure to allow 2,500 slot machines at the track on this year’s ballot. You can read the details in this Sentinel article from May of this year.

Do I think it is a good idea? The libertarian in me says the state should  only be concerned about facilities meeting their license requirements, but should not decide whether or not we have enough casinos. The horseracing fan in me says, even if this is a way to keep horseracing going, it is not the long term solution to the problems horseracing has. And if you don’t believe me, just read about Delaware Park after they allowed casino gambling. You can also read one of my earlier blogs below on how to save racing.

Naturally the people in favor of the initiative cite revenue sharing with the state’s education fund. I’ve cynically noted that if someone wanted to get public executions on pay per view, they’d offer part of the profits to the state education fund. Even I will concede that the gambling revenues might not the best choice to save education. (How about slot machines with the jackpot being CSAP-CSAP-CSAP instead of cherries?)

This whole issue of slot machines only affects me inasmuch as it affects racing. Even in Vegas the only time I used to play slots was when I had a loose quarter in my pocket, and now you can’t even get into a slot with less than a dollar. It’s a sucker’s game, and anyone who understands the statistics of gambling knows that. So for the most part,  I really don’t care if I have a casino five miles from my house (far enough to not affect my home value).

Guess who opposes the initiative? That’s right. The existing casinos in Cripple Creek, Black Hawk and Central City. Ostensibly, the reason for allowing casinos in the first place was to give those historic mining towns an economic boost. I was here when they passed that initiative, and I guarantee it was sold as a way to give a few bars an old west flavor with a few one-armed bandits and a poker table. Have you seen the Ameristar  in Black Hawk? Doesn’t exactly scream Miss Kitty’s saloon, does it?

Here is what Lois Rice, executive director of the Colorado Gaming Association said about a casino in the Denver metro area: “If there was gambling available in major metro areas in the state, there would be no incentive for folks to drive to the historic mining towns,” she said. She said the state would lose all the revenue created by those casinos.

Seriously? The casino at Arapahoe Park wouldn’t replace that money and even more? Besides, if you live anywhere on the west side of town, Black Hawk and Cripple Creek are miles closer than Arapahoe Park, a facility about as far east as development has occurred. On the other hand, people who live on the east side of town are not regularly driving to the mountain casinos that often because it is a 60-90 minute trip, unless of course they dream about slot machines all day. For most people who enjoy the occasional game of chance, the mountain casinos are akin to that trip to Elitch’s. Once or twice a year is plenty. Anybody who understands geographical location and its relation to human behavior (I actually have a degree in that) knows that there are only so many things people will drive an hour and a half to enjoy regularly.

One other question. Is the executive director of the Colorado Gaming Association somehow biased here? Why should the Gaming Association care where the casinos are unless….ok, I won’t say it.

I’m not backing Arapahoe Park here. I’m just saying, nobody should have an exclusive right to casino gambling in a state that allows casino gambling by entities other than the Indian Tribes (a whole separate discussion).

Let’s call the opposition what it really is. Either protectionism by the mountain casinos or moralizing by people who believe gambling is on the devil’s list of things he loves. And that’s fine. There are plenty of issues people will disagree on. Just be honest in why you have a position.

A Denver Post editorial came out against the initiative. Their basic reason seems to be that because we are not preserving historic mountain towns (with mega hotels/casinos) there is no reason to approve this initiative. We did our duty 24 years ago (and I’m guessing they mean we probably made a huge mistake in doing so) and that is that. But the editorial undertone I was getting was, gambling is a scourge and just because we have to put up with it in the mountain towns is no reason to put up with it anywhere else.

Now I will say this. If they are going to generate major traffic to Arapahoe Park they better have a plan for improving Quincy Avenue and Gun Club Road. It’s already a mess at rush hour and that’s just from the developments that are popping up like the prairie dogs they are displacing.

Like most things, piecemeal is the wrong way to go about solving a problem. If the race track needs help, there are ways to do that. If education needs help, then we need a strong and sensible comprehensive state policy to address that. And if there is an incredible pent-up demand for slot machines, we should figure out that too. Just because someone is already here doesn’t mean the door should slam shut. Unless, of course, we are talking about…..never mind.

Handicapping and Betting

The Four Most Important Things to Know When Handicapping a Race

Only four, you say? Well of course there is a lot more to handicapping than what I’m going to say below, but if you don’t know these four things, you’ll be starting in a hole.

At today’s distance and surface, what style is winning? Most of us have a way of assigning running style to a horse. I use early, presser, sustained in the following way.

  • E – normally runs on the lead
  • EP – will run on or very near the lead
  • PE – usually won’t take the lead but will be within a length or two of the frontrunner
  • P – prefers running just off the pace
  • PS – will be midpack but prefers running on from off the pace
  • SP – prefers running from the back with a closing style
  • S – a plodder early, will make up ground in the stretch

Let’s look at the last week of the Belmont meeting.

  • Dirt Sprints – E=2, P=7, S=3
  • Dirt Routes – E=4, P=5, S=2
  • Turf Sprints – E=7, P=4, S=0
  • Turf Routes – E=4, P=5, S=3

This gives us a recent track profile (for all the good it will do considering the meet ended Sunday). In dirt sprint races, horses just off the pace do best. In dirt routes, generally the same, although speed holds up a bit better. In turf sprints the sustained runners could not crack the win column, with the early speed and pressing types dominating. In turf routes the pattern seems to be more even, so any style has a chance to win.

Next we want to look at the placement of the horse in relation to the rail. On Sunday July 13 the track seemed to play fair for dirt runners, neither favoring the rail or mid-track runners. Usually when biases develop they are short-lived, often related to weather incidents. When I look at biases, I generally will look at two things: how does the track play in off-weather conditions and how does the track play immediately after a weather incident? So if we were playing Belmont today, we’d be most interested in early speed/presser types in sprints, pressers in dirt routes and presser/sustained in turf routes and generally we aren’t going to be concerned about post position as long as our choice can get an attacking position.

Which race do I use to evaluate my horse? Most people look at a horse’s last race, and it is important to look at the last race. But if it is not at today’s distance or surface, we may want to use another race for our evaluation. When we get to questions three and four, this will become clearer.

Generally I want to look for a recent race that is at (or within a half furlong of) today’s distance, on today’s surface, where the horse won or finished within a couple of lengths of the winner. It is usually the case that the shorter the race, the higher the number, so I want to know how well a horse runs at today’s distance. Does that mean I use a race from a year ago, or even two months ago? Only if I think it is really representative. At the end of the day, the condition a horse is currently in trumps all else.

Now if you are evaluating a horse who has been off for a while, you should look at any similar comeback races on the past performance in addition to other competitive races. The Racing Form and Timeform U.S.can give you lifetime past performances. The Racing Form and Timeform U.S. also give you statistical information on trainer success with layoff horses.

Races where the horse gets a good number but where the horse was far back are generally not going to be as useful as races where the horse was competitive. It is often the case that the better horses “pull” a runner along with them, and you often see this in horse coming from higher classes into lower class races. I just don’t trust a figure earned from a race where a horse ran eighth by 10 lengths.

Finally, you have to make an overall evaluation of the horse’s interest in winning. When you see a maiden with the lifetime record of 17-0-6-6, no matter what the horse’s figure, you have to steeply discount the winning probability, even if the horse has a top figure.

How fast can my horse run? I want to know what my horse is capable of running when he is at his best. If my horse ran his best race today, would he be competitive? Which begs the last question

Can my horse run a winning race today? At this point you have most of the basic information you need to answer the important questions. Does my horse have the right running style? Do I think he is fast enough to win? Is he in good enough condition to win?

There are other factors, of course. Trainer or jockey may influence your handicapping. Moving up or down the class ladder (negative or positive class drops, e.g.) can be worth evaluating. Track condition could be critical. Changes in equipment or medication or a move to a new barn have to be considered. But the essential task of handicapping is to find the horse you believe will run fastest today.

Selections

Belmont 9th July 13

Update: Well it helps to get the scratches correct. Apparently in my world 6 looks a lot like 8. It is corrected below. 2 took the lead in the stretch and was handily run down by the 3. 1 took heavy win action and held on for third with the six picking up fourth. It was a $106 exacta. If you went for the 2/3 it could have made your day. 

It seemed fitting to do the final race at Belmont until September. It is a 6-furlong, $40,000 optional claiming race for state-bred fillies that are essentially NW3.

1-White Sangria. Running style – early speed with an ability to track. White Sangria has been rested since finishing second in a 5-furlong sprint at GP last march. Her pace figures at the distance are competitive and she is three of four in the money on the Belmont turf.

2-One Time Only. Running style – should be more of a presser in this race. One Time Only has done most of her racing at SA. Her pace figures are definitely competitive, although the Santa Anita turf is far different than the Belmont turf.

3-Invading Humor. Running style – should be pressing in this race. Horse is two of three in the money on the BEL lawn. She is coming out of state-bred optional claimers. Her pace figures put her in the mix.

4-Fancy Boss. Running style – Fancy Boss should be close to the early pace and at 10-1 M/L is interesting.

5-Penthouse Party. Scratched

6-Desert Bliss. Running style – sustained pace, closer. She is a 2 for 27 horse that seems to get a lot of seconds, thirds and fourths. Maybe a superfecta play.

7-Marcy. Running style – seems to prefer the midpack/presser role. She is 2 for 25 and zero for five on the Belmont turf. She’d be a surprise winner for me.

8-Lumineuse. Scratched

9-Image of Noon. Running Style – more a sustained/closer type. At only 6-1 M/L she is hard to really get pumped up over, but she wouldn’t be a shock.

10-Uncle Southern. Running style – another early speed horse with and ability to sit in position and make a move in the stretch. She is two for two in the money on the BEL turf.

So here is how the running style breaks down.

Early speed – 1, 4, 10

Presser – 2, 3, 7

Sustained/closer – 6, 9

If you look at the turf sprints from Saturday, horses on or near the lead did best. The best of the front-runners is the 4, although the 1 and 10 look like they will be happy to volley up front. The 4 also has the best pace figure with the 1 a close second. Both the 3 and 7 are coming out of the May 21 race where the 10 finished second by a nose. I downgraded the 2 on my odds line because she doesn’t have a Belmont turf start, but that doesn’t mean I don’t think she is a prime contender. If she runs to her SA form she may win by open lengths.

Here is an odds line that doesn’t violate the pari-mutuel requirement like the morning line does. It also reflects the fact that I think the race is competitive.

Horse         Odds Line

  1.                   5-1
  2.                   9-2
  3.                   6-1
  4.                   4-1
  5. SCR
  6.                 15-1
  7.                 50-1
  8. SCR
  9.                   6-1
  10.                   9-2

No horse stands out on paper here. I think 4 looks good to fill one of the first three positions. If the 2 runs back to her SA form, she looks like another strong In the money possibility. The 3 may be the overlay. Some combination of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 10 seem a cinch to make up the superfecta. Find your overlay and good luck.

Opinions, Stories and Reporting

Welfare and Safety Summit

The fifth Race Horse Welfare and Safety Summit wrapped up this week. I was really hoping we’d hear that they found the smoking gun when it comes to why animals appear to be more fragile than just a few decades ago. They didn’t. But after looking at the summaries, the main criticism is the one I’ve already noted – anybody who even insinuates drugs are the cause gets drummed out of the club.

For the most part they provided useful and interesting perspectives.

As I believe Mark Twain said, “They are three kinds of lies. Lies, damned lies and statistics.” On the other hand, how are you supposed to make your point other than with statistics? So as Twain might have added, it is how you use statistics that creates the rub.

Take these statistics.

  • Only 31 trainers started more than 150 horses in 2013. This was used to illustrate that mega-trainers aren’t really at the core of race horse fragility. I’m not sure how they got blamed in the first place since for the most part it isn’t the mega-trainers who are dictating which sire gets bred to which broodmare, but good to know.
  • However, it turns out breeding isn’t the culprit either since 16 of the top 20 sires by earnings had strong form at a mile and an eighth or longer. Similarly the 15 of the top 20 two year-old sires also had strong form at a mile and an eighth or more. Call me dense, but the fact that the top racers can go the classic distances proves the breed is as strong as it ever was? You sure it isn’t just that out of 20,000 foals born, a few hundred of them actually turn out to be solid because statistically that is exactly what we would expect? 2% of the crop doesn’t prove or disprove anything, other than the Bell curve still seems to have pertinence.
  • Finally, some people posit that two year-olds are racing too early and that leads to more injuries. However, statistics tell us that more than 50% of the foal crop started as two year-olds in 1948, but today it is only 29%, so that can’t be the answer. I’m sort of thinking, doesn’t that actually tell us that two year-olds in 1948 were sturdier?

The highly respected Dr. Larry Bramlage made a fascinating point about bone issues. He said that bone remodels and strengthens in response to stress, so some injuries require some rest, others just need a reduction in hard training. This I found most fascinating. The cannon bone reacts to stress differently. At a gallop or below, stress travels up and down the bone, but at racing speed stress is rotated around the bone. So horses need the correct exposure to both sorts of stress in order to properly strengthen the bone. He didn’t say this, but doesn’t that sound like trainers need some training in how horses remodel and strengthen bones? Or maybe to put it another way, the good trainers have this figured out and the not so good trainers didn’t get the memo.

Remember Joba Chamberlain, a pitcher for the Yankees now with Detroit? Or Washington Nationals pitcher Steven Strasburg? Remember how caught up management was about limiting their innings pitched? In Strasburg’s case, it may have cost them a world championship. Ironically, they both wound up having Tommy John surgery, but maybe management was onto something. It turns out that apparently racehorses can only accumulate so much racing and fast workout stress before they are in dire danger of injury. Again, it sounds like the culprit is the trainer. Not the Pletchers or the Assmussens or the Bafferts who have first-class horse flesh and can immediately throw expensive diagnostics at the problem and put their injured runners in recuperation mode. Without saying so, it seems to be the trainers who aren’t always in a position of delicately managing a runner who are the problem. And how do these trainers deal with these injuries? Yup. Medication. Because too many of these trainers simply can’t afford to lay up their blue-collar runners.

When the expert panel consists of trainers like Todd Pletcher, you simply aren’t going to have the problems of the marginal stable conditioners represented. I have no doubt Pletcher doesn’t overuse medication, mostly because he can afford not to and still make payroll. But as I’ve mentioned on a number of occasions, if racing keeps insisting it’s not the medication and they trot out the A+ trainers to prove it, the conclusion that it isn’t the drugs remains suspicious.

If there is an extremely sad bit of anecdotal evidence, it is that jockeys and exercise riders are afraid to notify trainers if a horse is not warming up properly or working out well. In fact jockey Chris McCarron told a story about getting off a horse that wasn’t warming up well. They took the horse back to the paddock, put another rider on, and the horse won the race. But it turns out the horse never ran again. McCarron was roundly criticized by the connections.

If jockeys take an apathetic attitude because they fear losing mounts more than they fear losing their livelihood due to catastrophic breakdowns, I think what they are really saying is that once again the maze leads back to the trainers. Any trainer worth his salt will thank the jockey profusely, assuming the jockey doesn’t pull a horse out of the race too often. But the fact that too many trainers will run the horse anyway really gives one pause.

In a bright note, mandatory continuing education seems to be on the horizon. The Association of Racing Commissioners International has passed regulations to mandate four hours of continuing education for trainers. It’s a start, but seriously, how much can you accomplish in four hours? I referee high school basketball and I have to score a certain level on an annual certification exam and do two or three training camps a year if I expect to get a good schedule. I’m pretty sure something more like 20-40 hours a year for horse trainers makes a lot more sense.

I’ll say this again. Bravo to the Grayson-Jockey Club Research Foundation for holding the summit. Sooner or later we really need someone to say enough is enough, we’ll have a national horseracing commission that can set the rules (including training) and stop just talking about the problem.

Handicapping and Betting

The Condition Sign

In 1987 I published a book called The Condition Sign in which I was the first person to write about how to identify a unique and uncommon longshot form cycle. I may not have been the first person to think of the concept and use it, but I was the first person to ever give it a name and publish it.

Since publication of The Condition Sign other writers have talked about the same concept using terms like “wake-up” and “sign of life” horses, and despite the concept having been out there for 25 years (and regularly providing double digit payoffs), it is still poorly understood and underutilized. The Condition Sign (now sadly out of print) identified horses that show sudden, dramatic, and positive changes in running style sufficient to conclude they are ready to run their best race. Why it happens – maybe the horse fully recovered from a slight injury, maybe a change in feed or medication, maybe he finally got his horseshoes fitting properly – is not as important as accurately recognizing the pattern.

Here is an abbreviated version of The Condition Sign.

  • All horses go through form cycles. Cheaper horses will gain and lose their form very quickly while classier animals will retain their form for longer periods. So, for the most part we are looking for condition sign horses in cheaper claiming and maiden events where it is easier to spot improving and declining form cycles.
  • The condition sign play is strongest when combined with other factors, including requiring horses to come back within 30 days of their qualifying effort and having the horse return at its best distance (or within a half furlong of it). Because cheap horses do not hold their form as long, recency is critical. In fact, a relatively quick return for these horses is a positive signal.
  • A condition sign horse can be excused for one race after running the qualifying race if it is entered at the wrong surface, wrong distance, wrong class, or wrong track condition. This is known as deferred condition.
  • The condition sign is most applicable to early speed types. Speed horses almost always show early foot, but the less in condition they are the sooner they back up, and vice versa – the closer they are to peak form, the longer they hold their speed. This is not to say you can’t have a closing condition sign horse. The same concept holds true – a horse that suddenly closes after not being able to pass anything may also be exhibiting the condition sign.
  • Look for horses that have had success beating horses of equal or greater value in the past. Exercise caution though when looking at class droppers. Horses dropping from a slightly higher class to a more appropriate one may still be backed. But just as the double class jump is a positive move, the double class drop with a horse that seems ready to win is more likely a red flag. The most reliable plays are horses returning at the same class as their condition race.
  • While the finish time is always an important factor, with condition sign horses fast intermediate times are far more important. When betting a speed horse, you need to feel confident it can run a fast fraction and not fold in the stretch. Horses that show early speed in slow fractions in poor fields may not be the condition sign horses we are looking for. Look for horses with superior interior speed.
  • The best races are always going to be where you have an improving condition sign horse being underbet against animals that are either deteriorating or unlikely to improve.

Let’s look at the 6th race at Belmont Park on June 10, 2011. The race was a six furlong affair on the inner turf for state bred maidens. The field, to say the least, was poor. In a nine horse field there were two first-time starters, one horse with five starts and no other horse with less than 10 starts. The crowd volleyed favoritism between the number three, Lucy Stragmore by virtue of having finished third twice and fourth three times in her five starts, the last of which was in a seven furlong race on the yielding turf, and the six horse, Juliann’s Approval, a 14-start maiden that finished second last out in that same seven furlong turf event.

Also coming out of that race was the seven, Persky’s Heart. While I have often opined that any maiden with more than 10 starts is a risky proposition, the one exception to that guideline is a maiden that reverses bad form because of some obvious change – a move to a lesser circuit, change in surface, change in distance or change in running style. In her opening six starts on the inner dirt at Aqueduct, Persky’s Heart never finished closer than 12½ lengths. The trainer then put her on the Belmont turf and she showed something she hadn’t showed before – speed and interest in running. This is the sort of dramatic change we are looking for, and it appeared to be a result of moving to the turf. The race on April 30 was obviously not her best distance, but for six furlongs she held the lead in a respectable time for state-bred maidens. Two weeks later she was back on the turf at six furlongs and ran a perfect condition race – early speed and heart in the stretch. She returned eight days later and although the distance was a furlong more and the track yielding (she had previously shown a distaste for the moist going), she was deserving of a condition sign play. The combination of negative factors kept her out of the money (at 44-1) but still made her a prime bet as a deferred condition sign IF she returned quickly and at the right distance. Look at that race on May 22 closely. She broke on top from the 11 post, held her speed to the six furlong marker, and only lost two lengths in the stretch. Surely this horse was primed for her best effort next out. Sure enough, 19 days later she appeared in the aforementioned state-bred maiden, going off at a juicy 26-1 (the lowest odds of her career) and returning $55.50 to win, triggering an $839 exacta with one of the first time starters, and heading a $5,562 trifecta. You don’t need many of these races every year to stay healthy.

Let’s look at the condition sign angles applicable to the June 10 race:

  • The race for was cheap state-bred maidens, horses that cycle in and out of form.
  • Persky’s Heart had a sudden, dramatic form reversal.
  • Returned in 19 days.
  • Was racing at her best distance, six furlongs.
  • Was totally deferred condition.
  • Was an early speed type in turf sprints.
  • Whereas on the dirt she was faint-hearted, she held her speed well in the stretch in the turf sprints.
  • Was in the exact right class.
  • Had excellent interior times for the class.
  • Was underbet against clearly overbet favorites that were unlikely to improve.

 

Selections

Belmont July 11 – Early Daily Double

Update: I certainly handicapped the hell out of the first race. The fact that every NYRA handicapper seemed to be picking the 6 should have been a clue. The 3 was gasping in the stretch, a pretty negative sign if you ask me. The 5 looked like a horse that needed conditioning. I don’t generally prefer horses like the 6, but if there was ever a field designed for him to win, I guess this was it. In the second, the 7 powered past the first timer and went on to win comfortably. The 7 was close to a win bet and really ran like a favorite should. The 5 was acting up at the gate and finished well back. The 3 was with the leaders to the stretch, but gradually lost position. The 1 seemed to be getting significant action but was a total airball. I’d watch for the 2 next time – she made a minor move around the turn so perhaps she is returning to her winter form. So one out of two in the double that paid $20.20. 

Both races have two contenders that look very solid.

Based on Seth Abrams reminding me about Howard Sartin, I pulled out my copy of Modern Pace Handicapping and did the Sartin analysis for Race 1.

Horse                                                    EP            SP          AP          FX       

  1. I Want You to Know           57.86   57.02     57.31     57.54
  2. Sun Bear                                     57.78   56.41     56.87     56.67
  3. Rigby                                            58.21   57.54     57.79     58.38
  4. Straight Fox                             57.44   56.96     56.94     56.69
  5. Hope Still Springs                58.46   57.50     57.83     58.00
  6. Buckeye Heart                       57.96   57.29     57.51     57.25

In each of the Sartin calculations, either the 3 or the 5 is top or second best. So let’s construct our odds table. I’m going to make the 5 a slight favorite. He is the “new shooter” and would be best based on his Maryland races. He also picks up Irad Ortiz, one of the jockeys fighting for the riding title. The 3, 4, and 6 have some recent experience racing against each other and the results are a little ambiguous. What I like about the 3 is his win percentage – an eye-popping 13 for 33 – and his natural speed. You have to worry about him stealing the race.The 6 looks more like he prefers being close to the winner but not in front, so I’m going to discount his win potential. The 1 seems to have done his best running on the Aqueduct inner dirt, and I tend to discount those horses until they show potential on the Belmont surface. The 4 looks a cut below the 3, 5, and 6. The 2 is dropping in class, but he’s 3 for 53. I just can’t get past that stat.

Horse               My Win Odds     Bet Odds

  1.                          19-1                             NA
  2.                          30-1                             NA
  3.                            8-5                             5-2
  4.                          15-1                             NA
  5.                            6-5                             2-1
  6.                            9-1                          20-1

 

Fair Pay Exacta                1         2         3        4          5        6         

  1.                                                       NA     NA    NA    NA    NA
  2.                                            NA                NA    NA    NA    NA
  3.                                            NA    NA                86      10     50
  4.                                            NA    NA    NA               NA     NA
  5.                                            NA    NA        8     60                 38
  6.                                            NA    NA     57    NA                67

In the second it once again looks like a two-horse race, but being a MSW you have to consider potential chaos. The 3, Sublime, ran a new top last out and has had 47 days to recover. He geta the high-percentage combination of Kieran McLaughlin and Javier Castellano. The 7, Successful Runner, is a 6-start maiden with three seconds and three thirds. With only six starts you can’t label the horse as a professional maiden, but it is some cause for concern. The crowd is nowhere near done backing this horse, and she may be overbet. Still, she should be the controlling pace. The 1, Giant Slayer, came out first on the turf and wasn’t particularly inspiring, but the surface switch and the one race of experience certainly allow for win possibilities. The 2, Aggrandizement, seemed to be getting better in the winter but has been off 139 days. I’m going to take a stand against her.

The 4, Rare Eagle, has an excuse in his last (turf) but still doesn’t seem like a good win prospect. Could hit a back hole. The 5, Stockholder, is a one start maiden and her first was neither inspiring nor horrible. She wouldn’t be a complete surprise, but I’d need more information than what is in the Racing Form. The 6, Sea Raven has nothing to recommend. The 8, Three Alarm Fire, is a first time with a small percentage on the morning line.

Horse                     My Win Odds                  Bet Odds          

  1.                                    9-1                                       18-1
  2.                                 15-1                                          NA
  3.                                    2-1                                          7-2
  4.                                 12-1                                          NA
  5.                                    9-1                                       18-1
  6.                                 30-1                                         NA
  7.                                    5-2                                         4-1
  8.                                  11-1                                        NA

I didn’t fill out all the spaces in the DD. Just those that have the win possible horses.

Daily Double Fair Pay

xxxxxxx1            2          3           4            5           6         7          8

  3.            70                       27                       70                   27
  5.            59                      19                        59                  19

There it is. Now go make some money.

Opinions

Why Would You Go to the Track?

Horseracing’s big days are great. Lots of people, lots of pageantry, TV coverage, a full press box.

And then there is the rest of the year.

I don’t think it is about promotion. Those of us who love the track don’t need advertisements or urging. We’re already captive. And unfortunately those who aren’t captive could hardly be expected to see an advertisement and think, “hey, let’s become horseplayers!” If you are a complete neophyte, it’s pretty frustrating to think about going to the track, watching horses run around an oval nine or ten times a day, and basically have only the slightest clue about which horse to bet. I have an uncle that goes to the races four or five times a year and still just bets his lucky numbers. He has a blast and I think it is great that there are fans like that. But four or five times a year is not the strategy that saves horseracing.

For most people a day at the track is like a day at the amusement park. Once in a while it is a fun thing to do, but a steady diet? And like the amusement park most occasional racegoers go with the intention of losing their $40 and still feeling like they had a good time, and we’ll see you next year.

The problems with race tracks are myriad, and have been discussed to death. Many of the facilities are crumbling. They are not really family friendly places (with a few exceptions).They treat their best fans (assuming they know who they are) as if they were simply a meal ticket. Most of the potential fans not already involved think the races are fixed or drug-riddled or somehow corrupt. And even for those who like horseracing, online betting sites just make it too easy to not have to spend five hours at the track.

One of the things sports fans need is someone to root for. Like the Cubs or the Broncos or the German soccer team. In horseracing you root for the horse you bet in the upcoming race. When the race is over, it’s on to the next event. You only like your horse if it wins (but it isn’t a real affection), whereas the Cubs or the Mets are imprinted on you, win or lose. You root in spite of their record. You don’t have a consistent “team” you can root for. In fact, you’re lucky if you get two seasons to root for your favorite horse. As I wrote the other day, owners more and more are moving horses to the stud barn after a black type win. If you’re lucky your horse will race, oh, on average six times a year. If you are a hard-core handicapper, the last thing you want to do is become emotionally involved with a horse.

No, it isn’t like rooting for the Cubs, although some days your selections have as much of a chance as the Cubs do of winning the National League pennant. It’s hard to fall in love with a horse. Once you get to know them, it seems like they get hurt or retire. You can root for trainers in a, “Gee I hope Chad Brown unseats Todd Pletcher one of these years at Saratoga” sort of way, but you can’t expect to generate new fans with the exhortation, come root for D. Wayne Lukas. Rooting for trainers is almost like loving baseball and rooting for Theo Epstein (the Cubs  GM). You root for the players.

So tracks wind up stuck with promoting the “excitement” of racing. They certainly can’t say, come to the track and win a lot of money because there is a pretty good chance you won’t. They can’t even advertise like casinos do – we have the loosest slots in town, or we pay out at a 97.6% rate. Can you imagine that? People are addicted to slots to the point where they have tournaments like there is some sort of skill involved in pushing the button. Once betting involves some skill, their interest level apparently goes way down.

How does NASCAR do it? Do you think it is just the excitement of watching drivers make left hand turns for two hours? No, it is that the drivers have a fan base. You go out and root for your guy, who even has his own number. And you know everything about him, including his (or her) shoe size. Come to think of it, what is California Chrome’s shoe size? You argue with other (what do they call NASCAR fans? NASCAR-ites?) about which driver is the best. The NASCAR owners are equally well known.

And as I’ve said in a number of blogs, organizations like NASCAR or the NFL tightly control the product. It’s a small club with only those people at the top of their sport. They have a commissioner. They have one set of rules for everyone. They have a centralized drug enforcement group. When you have a Donald Sterling owning a team, you kick him out of the club.

Let’s face it. Horseracing isn’t going to be for everyone. But then again, neither is NASCAR or baseball. I’ll tell you a big difference between NASCAR and horseracing. For NASCAR you pretty much can get by with a six-pack, a sunny day and two hours to watch the same race. It’s a lot more work to be a horseplayer. You spend hours before the races, and hours at the races, and then more hours after the races getting ready for tomorrow’s races. Well, unless you just bet your lucky numbers.

All of the obvious things have been tried. The average age of a serious horse racing fan seems to go up every year. It’s time to have a national racing commission and it is time to start thinking outside the box. Race tracks, other than the Taj Mahals of racing like Saratoga or Santa Anita or Del Mar, are losing attendance while the on-line betting sites are gaining at their expense. Handle goes up, purses go down. Not the first choice as a business model.

So tell me what you think? What would bring someone new to the track and make them a lifelong fan?