Saratoga July 25 – Late Pick-4

This one seems full of races where any of five horses would not be a surprise.

RACE 7

  • 2 – Shift Colors. While Shift Colors has had two bad starts, she’s had two very nice finishes. Note that Lopresti worked her out of the gate last time in 36 3/5. I’m going to make her the top selection.
  • 3 – Hope Cross. Anybody but Chad Brown and Javier Castellano and I’m really downgrading the horse. She had the lead in the stretch last time and coughed it up, which normally is a negative. But with the connections she gets a fresh chance.
  • 4 – Sumba Sunset. Another one with 2 place finishes in a row, the last after taking the lead in the stretch. On the other hand the winner of her last did come back to win a NW1X.
  • After taking a second look I’m going to add the 8 Place Card, although honestly the addition is really more of an angle play. I’m still ambiguous on the horse but some good handicappers are high on her chances. I’m posting this well before post time
  • 9 – Mobilize. This is sort of a, if you like Sumba Sunset you have to like Mobilize, pick, although Sumba Sunset has been the better of the two both times they met.
  • 11- Truly Mizzed. Seems much better suited to the mile, but the outside post is a real impediment.

RACE 8

  • 3 – Readthebyline. He ran a monster on May 7 and then came back with a bit of a clunker against better. He has some back class and there is no reason he shouldn’t improve off his last today. I’ll make him the top pick.
  • 6 – MJ Plus has developed a serious case of seconditis, but given in his last nine races he’s been 1st or 2nd, and his total lengths behind in his seven place finishes is about 5 lengths, he is certainly eligible to be the one with his nose in front.
  • 9 – Bug Juice is 3 for 4 at the distance and 2 for 2 at Saratoga. That is more than enough reason to put him in the mix.

RACE 9

I can’t get excited about #1 Commanding Curve, although there will probably be plenty of pace to run at. Update: Commanding Curve is scratched in favor of the Jim Dandy.

  • 3 – Protonico. Pletcher, Castellano, stakes race. This is Pletcher’s Saratoga wheel house.
  • 5- Charge Now. This is going to be my top pick. That Iowa Derby track was a mess, and once he didn’t break his race was over. I think he gets one more chance to prove he belongs.
  • 9 – Joint Custody. 10 of 11 in the money and a terror on the mid-Atlantic circuit. We can give him one shot in the majors.

RACE 10

  • 3 – Itapa is 20-1. I’m not sure why, but the post is good, the connections are good, and I can’t imagine she won’t get the mile trip.
  • 4 Knotty Pine was the front runner, and 5 Jolene was the presser and they finished a nose apart. I’m not sure I could separate them comfortably today.
  • 7 – Forensic is getting top billing for me. She was a bit unimpressive in the stretch in her last, but I like her style and I like her figures.

2-3-4-(8)-9-11/3-6-9/5-3-9/7-3-(4, 5)