After babbling about how tough the pick-4 was on Wednesday, it actually came down to a horse I wound up substituting for a scratched horse I was going to play (the 1 for the 7 in the 7th), two favorites and a standout 9-1 shot. As it turned out, the pick-4 was actually a bad investment with the favorite in the 10th race. If I had taken the $150 I put into the pick-4 and just bet it on Shankapotomus in the 8th I’d have come out $300 better than the pick-4 and only had to sweat once. On the other hand, if anyone BUT Hot Squeeze had come in I was in for a much bigger collection, so maybe the pick-4 wasn’t such a bad bet. But on the other other hand, none of my other four choices finished second, so $1,318 was as good as I was going to do on the pick-4. Dare I say Friday’s pick-4 is a little easier, at least at first glance.

I’m writing this before scratches and I’m going on David Aragona’s expert analysis that there wasn’t enough rain (yet) to knock any races off the turf.

RACE 7

I think this is the toughest of the four legs. I think the contenders are

• 2 – Glowing Ember. He is a front running horse, but he doesn’t seem heartless in the stretch. In fact, if Abilio scratched he’d look like lone speed to me. Given his high early, he should have no trouble clearing the turn in front. He does take a slight downgrade in jockey from Castellano to Jose Ortiz, but Ortiz has been riding well. Gotta fear the speed.
• 3 – Sneaky Kitten. He is a pace presser with that budding seconditis look. 19 starts, 9 seconds. I’m going to say he could win the race, but he is near the bottom of my win probables list.
• 5 – Captain Gaughen. He’s only had two starts at 4, and both races have been useful. His 4 year-old figures are higher than anything he ran at 3, which is a very good sign. He’s actually won at today’s distance and he has a good tracking style. I’d be surprised if he went off at 12-1.
• 6 – Abilio is the headache horse. Really fast figures. Plenty of early pop. Graded stakes runner. And on the down side, he’s 0 for ten in the last two years. You can’t leave him out, but I’m not rooting for him to come  in.
• 8 – Powerful Instinct. He seems well placed, and despite his 2 for 24 record lifetime, he is 3 of 6 in the money in the last two years. This is his second start of the year, he’s trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Javier Castellano and if he goes off at his morning line 9-2 he’s probably an overlay.
• 11 – Lawyer Jim. It’s his first start of the year after finishing 2013 4 for 8 wins. I like his style, he’s at the right class, and he has a win at Saratoga. I think I would demand more than the 6-1 ML, but he’s in the mix.

So I like 2, 5, and 8 best but would throw in 3, 6, and 11.

RACE 8

How do you make a bottom level claimer part of the late pick-4 and not have it as the last leg?

• 3 – Wild Kay has speed, and has won at better than 50% in the last two years. I’m not enamored with the low percentage trainer, but the horse certainly isn’t over her head.
• 6 – Wholelotaroyalty is another one that looks like a world beater in the lower claiming ranks. I think the drop to $16000 at Saratoga was shrewd especially considering those $40000 claimers in the midwest probably attract much better horses overall. Probably the favorite.
• 7- Heir to Dare is 1 for 10 in the last two years with 4 seconds. She doesn’t seem to show a lot of heart these days but still can run competitively at this level. She certainly doesn’t look like 4-1 to me.

I leaning toward 3, 6 but might use the 7.

RACE 9

This 5 1/2F affair on the turf is very competitive.

• 1 – Pure Sensation. Big numbers, lots of speed, and a little bit of hesitancy to win. He doesn’t look any better than a restricted stakes horse.
• 2 – Harpoon. What a disappointment he’s been. 2nd in a Grade 3, to the Gotham, to the Wood, and then getting his butt kicked at OC50K. I don’t want to totally pitch him but I’m not really in his corner either.
• 4 – Good Bye Greg has been dominant on the synthetic. He’s too damn fast to leave out.
• 5 – Favorite Tale might go favorite. Unlike Harpoon, he took his Grade 2 licking and then came back to just miss in the Oh Say Stakes at Delaware. This is his level, and he looks more than fast enough to win.

I will use 1, 4, 5 and throw in the 2 just to keep from being thick-headed.

RACE 10

I’m feeling pretty bold about this race.

• 1 – Bold Senator. Speed from the rail and a competitive figure. Zito and Saez…eh, not all goose bumpy about that combo.
• 3 – Harmony Bay is one of those Hurdles to Turf runner that I think are often overlooked. He’s only at 3-1 ML but I don’t think you can leave him out.
• 8 – All Over Me has a really nice race on Jun 4 at BEL, and that certainly makes him competitive, but overall he’s been sort of disappointing at MSW. But, Maker finally drops the horse to a level at which he can win.
• 12- Larrytheeducator. Call me crazy but I like this horse in this spot. He has plenty of negatives. Yes, his trainer is 8% but he has two seconds in three starts at the Spa. Friedman is trying to make an impact here. Yes, Mejias has only gotten three rides, but I figure when a guy gets that few opportunities he’s going to be riding his ass off. Yes, he was clobbered in his first two races, but then he was moved to the turf and sort of woke up. Yes, he is breaking from the outside, but he showed tactical speed the last time and might just get reasonable position out of the first turn. I don’t think he is a need to lead type. Ok, in reality he needs everything to go perfect, but he’ll be on my tickets.

I’m going to back my bold selection, the 12, but not be so immovable that I won’t be playing around with the 1, 3,  and 8.