It was a hard luck sequence for me in the late pick-4 yesterday. After crushing a few of the earlier races, and for the first time in decades having a DQ go my way, I had mixed luck in the last 4. Of course, I would have been a lot happier if the 3 had won the 11th, but today is another day.

RACE 8

• 2 Making Havoc gets a nod from me for pretty much one reason – the change to the hot Phil Serpe barn. She was ultra competitive at Gulfstream, Parx, and Pimlico and didn’t embarrass herself at BEL when she was taken for $62K. She had a big break in her works from June 29 to July 31. I’d like to think Serpe was taking care of so nagging injuries and and giving her a much needed rest – she already has 6 starts this year. I just don’t think you can leave her off the tickets.
• 6 Evening Show takes the blinkers off today in her second start for Steve Klesaris. After winning three in a row she developed a serious case of seconditis. This is not an overwhelmingly strong field, but her winning likely depends on getting the right ride from Rosario. Much the fastest, but not a sure thing. Still the top choice.
• 9 Misszippityslewda could be the main pacesetter, meaning the outside post shouldn’t be much on an issue. She is another one with a tendency not to pass that last horse in the stretch. 6F should be her best distance and lately Junior Alvarado has been riding speed horses very well.
• 10 Nuffsaid Nuffsaid has been knocking around this level her last two. She’s in the mix based on speed, but if you need a convincer I have two words – Michelle Nevin. Until she cools off I’m not leaving anything she puts on the track off my tickets.

RACE 9

• 1 Alpha is a horse that will be overbet. Yes he’s been racing nothing but graded stakes for the past two years. Yes, he is a Grade 1 winner in a race with the interesting condition that it is limited to non-graded winners. Yes, Johnny V gets aboard. Yes, he seems to have good speed from the 1 post. Yes, you can throw out his last on the turf. But even with that, I think he is up against it and mostly a play against.
• 3 Farhaan is a lightly raced 5 YO also coming from the stable of Kieran McLaughlin. On paper he looks a cut below these, but his pace figures do give reason for opimism. The main question is, why did McLaughlin enter him when he had the more accomplished Alpha? Sure they are from different owners, but I have to believe the trainer would not enter this horse if he was not cranked and ready, and he didn’t believe he had a legitimate chance to win. He wouldn’t be a comfortable win bet for me, but he deserves to be on the tickets.
• 4 Easter Gift had no chance at all in the Monmouth Cup. The short comment belies the horrible trip she got. It also understates that speed killed in that race, with the first three horses down the backstretch were the first three horses across the wire. I’ll just say it. Joe Bravo stinks at SAR. He stinks at MTH too if you watch that race. He’s putting his horses in bad spots, he’s fighting them around the track. The change to Rosario is a big upgrade. Top choice.
• 6 Stormin Monarcho fits the race and the distance well. He wouldn’t be a a big surprise. He was clearly way over his head in the Suburban, but did contest the pace for a bit. The switch from the overmatched Corey Lanerie to Cornelio Velasquez should help.

RACE 10

• 4 Main Sequence won the United Nations in his first start in the U.S. His main issue is that he is a head case in the gate. He broke slowly in his last, dwelt in the race before that one. He’s probably the best horse in the race but not a sure thing.
• 5 Imagining seems to be a Grade 1 horse. He likes the SAR turf and has run well this year. He has speed to use, but can be versatile. Hard to leave him off the tickets.
• 7 Twilight Eclipse almost wired the U.N. field and should have no problem staying this distance. Top choice in this field.

RACE 11

• 2 Jimmy Fillpot has two races on the turf and ran relatively evenly in both. He’s been off since Jun 21 but has a nice steady workout tab between.
• 3 Breakeven Analysis has been off since November for Chad Brown. He’s had a deep closing style, which I don’t generally prefer, but he has great figures as a 2YO, which I do like alot. He has a perfectly steady work pattern and Castellano stays aboard. Have to be on the tickets.
• 9 Hines has good numbers, Todd Pletcher and Johnny V. He’s had plenty of shots to win, although his last against NW1X runners probably wasn’t a real win opportunity. TAP and Velasquez just gets on my tickets somehow.
• 10 Day Six will be the top pick. I love her last where she led most of the way and stayed fairly strong in the stretch. The cutback in distance won’t hurt and the switch back to Maragh has to be a godsend for his backers. Nice workout pattern and Barclay Tagg doesn’t hurt.