August 18 Saratoga Late Pick-4

It’s my last day here for two weeks. I’ll be in Germany and Spain on “business.” I will miss the last two weeks of Saratoga, but I hope I’ll be able to weigh in on some of the big races and events.

Monday’s card is uninspiring at first glance, but there are a couple of very vulnerable favorites.

RACE 7

  • 2 Alysaro broke his maiden on the inner dirt at AQU for $20K this March. He’s raced twice at BEL since then and once in the SAR mud. He’s shown excellent tracking ability and should like the 6F distance. He looks a little fainthearted, but could get a really nice spot on the rail. Not impossible here.
  • 4 Captain Toews is a playback for me. I think you can discount his last race in the mud. Until that point he was very competitive in fields like this. His low profile connections take the blinkers off today. While I think he is a step slower than a few in here, he will be long odds in a short field with a vulnerable favorite.
  • 6 DJ Manlove is going first out in the Bruce Levine stable. This horse has shown high early speed and has a steady series of good works for his 2014 debut. I doubt he’ll be 6-1 at post time. I wouldn’t be the slightest bit surprised if he wires this field. Top choice.
  • 7 Dyker Beach is the fastest horse in the race. He also has the dreaded record of 1 for 18 with 9 place finishes. I think he has to be a bet against in the win slot, but it would be a shock if he wasn’t one of the top three.

RACE 8

  • 1 Red Vine is a presser that will have to get out of the gate quickly today. He’s been a consistent horse with 9 of 10 lifetime in the money. His figures are competitive and combination of Clement and Rosario has always been solid.
  • 3 Inchcape has two seconds over the SAR turf. He’s been knocking on the door all year and certainly has the style and the numbers to beat this field. He needs to prove he can beat this class and maybe today will be the day.
  • 9 Pyrite Mountain is the obligatory Todd Pletcher trainee. He lost last out by the slimmest of margins and returns today to the same conditions. That was his first out in nine months, and given the maximum effort, a bounce is a distinct possibility. That was by far his best lifetime figure.  Perhaps the month off and the two maintenance works point toward him remaining in condition, but he is not an unbeatable favorite in this race.
  • 10 Side Road is making his 2014 debut for Kieran McLaughlin. He was a respected 3YO, starting in the Gotham. Something went wrong in that race because he spent the rest of the year on the sidelines. He came back as a turf horse, winning an OC25K at GP and then running in a series of graded and restricted stakes. His figures are very competitive. His last off a long layoff was just fair, but McLaughlin and Ortiz have been a deadly combination for a while. Top choice.

RACE 9

  • 2 Zucchini Flower has gone up against graded company last out, including getting beat for show by Ambusher by a length. The switch from McCarthy, a fine rider on lesser tracks but out of his league in SAR, to Irad Ortiz is monumental and the combination of Motion and Ortiz has been burning up SAR. She’s 7-2 on the ML and I think she’ll go off about that. On her best day she is as good as anyone in the field. Top choice.
  • 4 South Andros has been having a good 2014 and low profile trainer Rodney Jenkins brings her in for a try with the big boys. Xavier Perez has been riding primarily at Monmouth, with moderate success. She is 10-1 on the ML, and given her connections and apparently cheaper previous competition, she’ll be a big price at post time.
  • 5 Natalie Victoria should be the post time favorite for Michelle Nevin. Not that she doesn’t deserve the action, but Michelle Nevin is about as hot right now as you could ask a trainer to be. I think the horse is vulnerable, but the Nevin factor and her ability to wire fields are still dangerous. Not sure anyone can go with her.
  • 6 Ambusher was stuck in the mud last out but before that showed promise against graded fillies. She’ll have a lot to do in the lane to catch the 5, but wouldn’t be a surprise in the money.

RACE 10

  • 2 Callans Candy tried 5 1/2 on the SAR turf a month ago, finishing up the track after showing a little speed. There are a couple of interesting angles here. First, Bill Mott simply does not win with first timers. His record is abominable, and it shows in the 25-1 odds the horse went off at. Second, he gets first Lasix. Perhaps he bled in that race and perhaps he didn’t, but the Lasix won’t hurt. If you are playing strictly on numbers, this horse has no chance. On the other hand, if you believe Mott had a plan and today it all comes together, you’ve got a potential double digit longshot here.
  • 4 Hurricane Turn is the listed ML favorite. In a devilishly clever move, Stony Brook stables decided Chad Brown was no longer up to the task of training the horse and moved him over to Todd Pletcher. Brown tried to put him on the turf last out but was rained off. He almost won that race leading until close to the wire. He’s well enough bred for the turf, although this isn’t Pletcher’s main move. Wouldn’t be a shock, but I’m not leaning hard in his direction.
  • 5 Summation Time has one turf race at MTH  where he was steadied out of the gate but made a big move to finish second a neck. The Clement-Ortiz combo makes the horse a legitimate threat. The downside – why is he dropping the horse into a maiden claimer from a MSW? You can’t ignore the horse, but there are questions.
  • 6 Loves Last Chance is a six start maiden that has been close in a few races. Graham Motion finally drops the horse into a maiden claimer and that may be enough to get him over the hump
  • 10 Better Man is first on the turf for low profile trainer Patrick Reynolds. I’m inclined to give him a look but the outside post may be a bit too much to overcome.  Still, the numbers suggest he could be in the mix.