This pick-4 includes the Alabama, one of the four races that once defined the Saratoga season. I’ve found on big days races tend to be formful, but just like Moreno at the Whitney, upsets occur. We have two dirt races and two turf races in this sequence.

RACE 8

• 1 Mosler is sure to get some action. He wired a field at a mile at Belmont last September. From the 1 post he’ll have to gun for the lead but there aren’t many horses he’ll have to duel with. His figure as a 2 year-old is about as good as anything else in the race. Bill Mott is almost 20% off the bench and I believe the drop to 7F is right up his alley.
• 4 Scam goes for trainer Shug McGaughey. In has last start at SAR the comment says “off beat slow.” I think that is a little understated. He looked to me like he got out of the gate but something happened and the jockey pulled back to last. Then around the turn Joe Bravo managed to get stuck behind a horse and checked slightly. I don’t think anyone was beating the Big Beast that day, but he showed great courage and talent first out off a long layoff, closing past horses to finish 3rd. The 7F distance should be right to his liking. If he breaks he is a serious win contender.
• 5 Surfing U S A was the show horse in the Tampa Bay Derby. He’s been off since March, but has run well fresh twice. He has a nice series of works at SAR and competitive pace numbers. He will most likely show a pressing style, sitting off the flank of Mosler. He may have the most potential talent in the field.
• 10 Financial Mogul shows nothing but graded stakes runs since he broke his maiden last year at SAR. I really dislike seeing a horse handled this way. It is obvious he is not a graded stakes runner, and it took Violette all of 2014 to figure it out. The problem is that the horse has has seen nothing but rumps on his drives to the wire, and this can have an effect on his interest in winning. His running lines are full of real Grade 1 horses – Bayern, Social Inclusion, Samraat, Uncle Sigh, Coup de Grace. This is the easiest field he’s met in a year and if he has it in him to win, today is the day.

RACE 9

• 2 Orino wired a field last year at the mile distance on the SAR turf, although he was ultimately DQ’d and placed second. He hasn’t come out quite as eager to go to the front this year, but from the 1 post he will have to break sharply to get position. Trainer James Bond has given him a nice series of works, including two bullets in his last two drills. Rajiv Maragh gets the mount. He’ll be my top choice.
• 3 Hurry Up Alan shows up in the barn of David Jacobson after spending his career at Woodbine. Jacobson is 25% first time from a large sample, so that alone makes him a contender. The down sides are that it isn’t clear if the mile is his best distance and he has not shown a great amount of interest in leading at the wire this year. Still, his pace number say he is a consistent runner, plenty competitive with these.
• 5 Petrocelli is a speedball with only four lifetime turf starts. His last time on the turf was last November, and he finished a close up third at the mile distance. He looks a little cheaper than some of the other contenders, but speed is always dangerous. He’ll find a spot on a few tickets.
• 6 Sun Worshipper has been closing in turf sprints and perhaps the added distance will be more to his liking. He’s probably at the right class level, and although I won’t say this often, the switch to Alex Solis is an upgrade.
• 7 Mobridge intrigues me slightly. His pace figures put him a few steps behind some of the other runners, but he has a few things going for him. First, Mott has been having a good meet and he looks geared up for a big Alabama Day. Second, he ran an off the pace style last race and won. He’s dropping in class today and if he runs back to that race could be there at the end. He’ll be on some of my “B” tickets.

RACE 10

• 1 Unbridled Forever will be on some tickets, but is not by any means a key here. Since winning the Silverbulletday at Fair Grounds in January, she’s run into Untapable twice, Sweet Reason, and the favorite in this race, Stopchargingmaria. I think she’ll be overbet here. Her style is to come from off the pace, and from the one she may have to pull back farther than she might prefer in order to find a seam in the stretch.
• 5 Got Lucky is the otherTodd Pletcher trainee in here. She’s been close in a number of graded stakes. You have to throw out the effort in the Kentucky Oaks because she had a horrible beginning. Other than that she’s been first or second in each of her races. I think Pletcher would like nothing better than to sweep the top spots here.
• 8 Stopchargingmaria will be close to odds on at post time. Does she deserve it? I’m not sure. She’s been ducking Untapable all year, so she has to prove she belongs at the top of the division. She didn’t beat a lot in the CCA Oaks, but she doesn’t have a lot to beat here. She’s likely the best horse in the race, but I don’t think she is unbeatable (or Untapable).
• 9 Size at 5-1 will be the choice today. In a race without much pace (remember Moreno two weeks ago?) she looks like she could get to the front and relax. Her race in the Iowa Oaks was excellent, despite it being in the slop. Distance should not be an issue since she is a First Samurai out of a Pulpit mare. The hot Bill Mott trains, and Junior Alvarado (remember who rode Moreno) rides. Could be deja vu all over again.

RACE 11

• 1 Innovation Economy has one win in one start at this distance. In that race he dropped back to last, circled the field and exploded home. Unless he changes tactics, that’s exactly what he’ll have to do today. I’m not a big fan of plodders, but I am a big fan of Chad Brown. He has a big two year old figure, and if Brown has him ready to fire he could be dangerous.
• 3 Woodfield Springs has been a bit over his head lately. He’s another that likes to close, but I think he’ll be able to get a decent tracking position today. I think on the drop down, he gets a look.
• 4 Request has a win and a second from three lifetime races. His last race was at this distance and class level, and despite being wide, he closed well for second. Another with prospects.
• 9 Shaun’s Blessing ran two bang-up races at Churchill this spring. He picked up the always capable Johnny V. I like his pressing style, and his pace numbers are competitive. I’ll make him the top choice.