It happened again today. A horse with a low probability of finishing first went off as the favorite in the 10th race, a low-level claimer on the turf. One of the folks on Twitter singled the horse, and I just wanted to scream, NOOOOO!
I’ve said it before, and a lot of people get this, but the crowd often conflates the probability of finishing in the money with the probability of winning. I don’t care how fast the horse looks on paper, horses with double digit starts and no wins inevitably seem to find a way to lose.
The specific horse in question today was Malibu Queen. She went off at 9-5. She was 1 for 19, including 0 for 8 on a fast dirt track and 0 for 9 on the turf. Her best figure was faster than any other horse and as far as I was concerned she could have been 9-1 and she wouldn’t have been a good win bet. She finished second, almost 6 lengths behind the winner and only a nose in front of the show horse.
This phenomenon is mainly applicable to maiden and NW2L races. In higher class races, horses that show they can’t win are quickly dropped down the class ladder until they find a level that allows them to succeed. Why do some horses run fast enough to get a good rating but not fast enough to win? I believe it relates back to behavior in the wild. Only one horse gets to lead the herd, and many other horses recognize they are perfectly comfortable following the leader or placing themselves in the relative safety of the herd.
Do they ever win? Sure they do. Usually when they are battling in the stretch with another 1 for 19 horse, or when they are able to make a perfectly timed sustained move.
It would be one thing if today’s 10th was an isolated incident, but it happens with ridiculous regularity. This is a sampling from last week at Saratoga.
- Date Race Horse Record Odds Finish
- 8/3 10 2 Shaikha 14-0-6-1 6-1 4th
- 8/7 6 5 Navajo Ca Lo 26-1-3-3 5-2 5th
- 8/7 7 10 Kevin’s Steel 13-0-3-0 4-1 6th
- 8/7 10 3 Jenny’s Creek 17-0-5-5 9-5 7th
- 8/8 7 9 Dominate 23-1-6-6 7-2 8th
- 8/11 4 1 Downgoesfrazier 13-0-5-5 8-5 2nd
- 8/11 6 6 Forest Boy 12-0-4-1 5-2 5th
I’m not sure I got all the horses that had low probabilities of winning but got bet, but in a week there were 7 horses, 4 of which were favorites, and only 1 of which finished in the money.
It’s a difficult thing to toss-out the horse with the highest number, but that is precisely what you have to do if you are betting horizontals. My general rule of thumb is any maiden with more than 10 starts gets pitched unless something dramatic changes – move to a lesser circuit, change in barns, change in distance or change in surface. For horses that are in NW2L, any horse with more than 15 starts is a similar pitch.
These sorts of races represent excellent money making opportunities, especially in the multi-race bets. You just need the fortitude and the sense to ignore these sucker type horses.