Aqueduct November 21

Race 1

No fun when your choice gets scratched. I still believe the 3 is vulnerable but perhaps less so.

  • 4 Cee No More – listed at 15-1 on the ML but I don’t think the crowd will let us get away with that. Of his six lifetime starts three have been on the turf, three on the dirt. He has one second, one third, both on the dirt. He is dropping from $40K down to $20K and his dirt figure is as good as anyone in the race. The connections are less than inspiring, but that’s why you get big odds.
  • 3 Mischieviously – the 6-5 ML favorite and while he looks competitive, he doesn’t look unbeatable. Ten starts, one second, one third. He hasn’t improved since being snagged by Linda Rice and his figures are not heads above the others.  He seems to prefer pressing, although there isn’t a lot of real speed here. We’ll let the odds dictate how interesting he is at post time.
  • 2 Heading to Boca – Michelle Nevin claimed him back in Jan and rested him until October. His return was nothing to get excited about, but it was on the slop and certainly he would have needed it. He’s likely to improve and we’ll find out if it is enough for him to finish in front.
  • 5 Qui C’est Moi – was claimed last out by Abigail Adsit, and she has been effective at improving horses. Another that laid off from May to October, ran into a sloppy track for his return, and tired. He’s got some past figures that would be competitive in this field. Can’t count him out.

Race 2

  • 3 Cocktails With Dan – Actually showed a good tracking style in most of his races, but broke out and checked at the break. He never really got into the scrum, but I like that he showed some interest by closing past half the field. He doesn’t quite match up to a couple of others in terms of pace figures but at 10-1 you’re not going to get a horse that sticks out.
  • 5 Le Deluge – one race at AQU and one close second place finish. He looks perhaps like he made his move a little prematurely, but he shifts from Chuck Lopez to Cornelio and that should help. Has had consistent figures, although he does seem to have a decided tendency to finish second and third.
  • 1 Ausable River – has a lot of early speed. Came out on the turf after a brief respite and didn’t show much on that surface. Should prefer the dirt and has a second at AQU. Will be the one to catch.
  • 7 Seeker – the other speed in the race. Bruce Brown claimed him for $16K and hasn’t really improved him, but he is 3 for 3 at AQU. Will probably be overlooked in the betting and isn’t without chances.

Race 3

  • 11 Keen’s Cupla – one of the MTO’s, has the best main track figure, although it was on a wet track. Has some good early punch so he should be able to establish a nice tracking position.
  • 10 Blue Shark – has a couple of good races on the dirt and competitive figures. Gives him an edge over some of the other turf only starters.
  • 9 Talladega – has showed a lot of talent – consistent in his figures. Hard to explain why he hasn’t won by this point, but he has had some wide trips in his last two. We’ll see if he takes to the dirt.
  • 1 Forever Utopia – 8 second place finishes in 14 starts and has done well on the dirt. Hard to see him in the win slot, but has good outs for an exotic position.

Race 4

  • 1 David Rocks – Almost wired a field at BEL in October. Ok, the fractions weren’t exactly blazing, but these are state bred two year olds. Of the starters, his figure certainly sticks out.
  • 8 Global Positioning – First timer for Hushion out of Malibu Moon. Looked like he was being prepped for an early start, but something happened and he took a training break from May to September. He has a good series of works and should be as ready as he needs to be.
  • 9 Pierce’s Prize – Puts the blinkers on after showing well in two maidens and a state bred futurity at FL. Gets a big positive jockey switch to Rosario. Consistent figures.
  • 4 Possilicious – First timer for Kelly Breen. I like the workout pattern and Breen is 19% with firsters and 21% with two year olds. Chuck Lopez has a lot of experience riding, but he’s not been effective on this circuit, although he’s usually good about getting horses out and in position.

Race 5

  • 1 Financial Mogul – One of those cheap claimers with horses who have tons of starts but only one win. Financial Mogul is the X factor. He broke his maiden at first asking, and then went into a series of six graded stakes, including the Woody Stephens, a very fast race with an exceptionally strong field. Obviously this horse has been over his head for about all of his career. He may have head problems, a possibility with horses that have been raced at the wrong level, but the drop to $25K should be telling. Betting based on past class and that fact he has a lot of figures that would dominate the field.
  • 4 Brass Pear – Lots of early speed but not as much luck holding on. The 24 starts with only one victory is not inspiring, but in this field he has a shot to be in the exacta. He’ll have to be caught – again.
  • 6 Sun Storm – Came out after a year plus off and didn’t run too badly.  In his second start he didn’t have a lot of interest at the start, and it went downhill from there. But, a horse with four starts in this field has a lot of up side. Is making his third start off the layooff and if he’s going to hit it, this might be the race. Fairly low-key connections, but this is not a high class field.

Race 6

  • 5 Lunar Tales – Popular at the claim box. Contessa lost him, snagged him back next out, then jumped him the a $50K starter that was taken off the turf. He showed a little speed in that race, but it seems like the slop did him in. That was his only dirt race but I think you can excuse the poor performance  because of the soupy track. Has some decent works on th dirt and gets another chance today.
  • 3 Police Camp – Ran on the inner at AQU last winter, then took off until October when he returned on the turf. He won his first race back, returned two weeks later on the yielding turf. In that race he started a little slow, stayed wide the whole time, but still passed a few horses. Never actually been on a fast track so we’ll see how he adapts.
  • 7 Bajan Summer – one dirt start in her maiden voyage, not much of a race. Blossomed on the turf, and may have a decided preference for that surface, but has some some nice figures on the turf and if he runs to those he’s a contender here.
  • 9 Mental Iceberg – I have no idea what that means, but the horse has outs. He was well enough thought of as a 2 year old to get a start in the Remsen and then in the winter as a 3 year old in the Jerome.  He’s taking a pretty steep drop in class and he has some good races on the inner dirt.

Race 7

  • 7 Masons Dream – two starts, two second place finishes. Of the starters, has the top figures. Not likely to get much of a price, but he is the obvious pick.
  • 2 Andrew’s Got Zip – broke slow and made the death move, rushing to try to engage the leaders. No surprise he faded in the stretch. We won’t know if he is better than the 7, but with a clean break we should find out today.
  • 3 Fear – Went to the front in the Masons Dream race and backed up. We can give him a race to get his feet under him, and he should be the one to catch. I like the workout since the last – he got the rare handily comment.
  • 8 Damage Control – Kimmel is 21% with first timers and slightly lower with 2 year olds overall. Been prepping a while for this debut and should be ready.

Race 8

  • 15 Touching My Toes – has a lot of speed and almost wired a field at this level last time out. Has very competitive dirt figures and looks solid.
  • 16 Nonnie Connie – 23 starts and only two wins, but has been consistently competitive all year. Top dirt figure in the group.
  • 3 Graceful Gal – Just broke her maiden on the turf, but ran an impressive time. Curlin is a fine dirt sire and her dirt works are fair. Gets a shot to impress winners today,
  • 5 Barrier to Entry – Ran a second in an off the turf race at BEL in the mud. Has been running with cheaper, but ran well against a few of the others in here so I’m willing to give her a chance.

Race 9

  • 7 Absolute Beauty – Last three races were on the turf and a muddy track. He’s 0 for 5 on the turf, so those races can be excused. That muddy race was impressive. She went a fair pace early, and didn’t fade that badly in the stretch. I like the early foot and the distance. She’s 6-1 ML and I’d think we’ll get value at post time.
  • 4 Zimbabwe Lady – Michelle Nevin claimed the horse in February and gave her a race in March before laying her off until October. She ran well on a sloppy track, has a couple of workouts that should have sharpened her speed, and should improve second off the layoff.
  • 3 Literata – Just broke her maiden after dropping from MSW to the $25K claiming level. The figures are competitive, but she may have to improve a little to take this field to the wire. Dilger engages Johnny V to ride and they are  23% combo.
  • 9 Pitched – Really underwhelming connections, although the horse has been in the money the last four starts. Has about the same figures as the other contenders and given the low profile trainer and jockey, she should be some value.