Aqueduct November 20

I assume they’ll be off the turf again. Everything handicapped for the dirt.

Race 1

  • 3 Guggenheim – sometimes 7-5 on the ML looks like it should be 7-5. Fastest numbers in the race, should have no trouble with the distance, and has better tactical speed than it may look like in the PP’s. Seems to have some issues – two months between first and second start, four months between start two and three, but is coming back in less than a month this time, a good sign.
  • 2 Veya – eight start maiden had been exclusively on the grass until last out when the race washed off. That affair was as good as he has run, and Ribaudo adds blinkers today. Izzy Rodriguez is still a work in progress, but he has had some decent rides lately.
  • 6 Street Babe – don’t get too excited about all those bullets on the workout line. He has been upstate and there aren’t too many horses using the Oklahoma Training Track at SAR at this time of the year. Tough debuting at a mile, but it is only one turn. Rosario probably had his choice and decided to pass on the 3 in favor of this one. Dilger is fair to good with first timers. Really the only unknown in the race, so could be any sort.

Race 2

  • 4 Summer House – has shown speed in two races on off tracks. She’s trained by Bill Mott, and historically Mott runners need a race or two to get going. Being a Tiznow, she should relish the distance and the fast dirt. She won’t be 15-1 at post, but may be a decent price.
  • 8 Doukas – three starts on the turf, but she is bred well enough for the dirt. RuRod trains and Irad stays for the trip. She has the best figure of the horses left after scratches, and plenty of tactical speed.
  • 12 Resilient One – Pletcher trainee has one start at 6 furlongs on the yielding turf, but should adapt to the dirt and the distance just fine. Pletcher is dynamite with second start maidens.
  • 11 Tap It Out – Comes out of the same race as the 12 where she was three lengths behind that one. She is well bred to handle the dirt and the distance and improvement is realistic today.

Race 3

  • 1 E Z Passer – Threw in a clunker at 7 furlongs last out, but before that had won four in a row and around this class level. Came back with a good workout a week ago.┬áPatrick Quick grabbed her from Diane Balsamo, and he has only been fair first off the claim. Still, has some really competitive figures and if he runs back, he’s got a great shot.
  • 5 My Place – nine starts, 3 wins, including one for one at AQU, and 3 second place finishes, include 2 of 2 place finishes at this distance. Good numbers and should thrive at the trip.
  • 3 Pure Vida Zen – the track didn’t play to closers on Wednesday, although she does have the ability to press. Runs well on fast or wet dirt. Hasn’t seen this particular trip but no reason to expect she’ll falter at 7.
  • 6 Darling Bridezilla – Luckily you don’t have to like the name – just the horse. This the the David Jacobson runner, and he is white hot with 1st off the claim lately. Horse seems to always be trying hard, and with a little improvement is right there with these.

Race 4

  • 10 N.F.’s Destiny – has some fast races in his pp’s and speed was doing well on Wednesday. 12 of 17 first or second lifetime. Does seem to have some trouble hanging on in the stretch, but given his lifetime record at six furlongs, you have to include him.
  • 8 So Scott – Drops all the way down to $20K after running decently in some state bred $75K races at AQU in the spring. Bruce Levine is only fair off the layoff, but he looks like he has been patient with this horse. Wouldn’t be a total surprise.
  • 2 Won Great Classic – 20% lifetime winning percentage. He has 3 wins in 8 starts this year, all at this level and a figure that makes him competitive given the key scratches. Has a pressing style, so should be close enough to get a clear run in the stretch.
  • 7 Seek to Destroy – Showed good speed last out after shipping over from FL. Cuts back half a furlong and that should only help. Cannizzo hasn’t been hot at the AQU meet, but usually has his runners ready to go.

Race 5

  • 5 Irish Jasper – Overwhelmed his maiden field at Parx going five and a half. Pressed nicely, drew away powerfully, despite having a slow start. Castellano takes the mount and even though it is a step up. the horse looks good enough to be competitive.
  • 3 Omagoddonna – Chris Englehart snatched this one off a strong maiden win. Steps her up in price today, but cuts back slightly in distance. Couple of nice works in her favor.
  • 6 She’s Marvy – Another that was taken last out, this time by Steve Klesaris. She barely managed to win her maiden, but has a decent figure for this group. Klesaris is 28% first off the claim, although not really known as a two year old specialist.
  • 8 Captain Munnings – Dominated a field when dropped from MSW to MCL. Gary Contessa trains, and he is only fair with horses coming off the short rest, but she does have speed and that is an advantage.

Race 6

  • 1 Againsome – more seconds and thirds than wins this year, but is definitely at the right class level to move to the winner’s enclosure. Linda Rice has been fair at this meet, and if he runs back to his last he’s a serious contender.
  • 7 Sean and Matt – didn’t run horribly in the slop last time, but was much better on a fast surface. This is the third in the sequence since coming off a 10 month break and I’m expecting it to be a good one. Did well at the distance last time he went a mile.
  • 8 March Too – Showed good speed in the summer at SAR and BEL, went to KEE a month ago and won comfortably despite being challenged around the track. A mile seems to be the end of his stamina rope. Eddie Kenneally grabbed this one for $40K off the maiden win, steps him up a bit today, but given the positives, he’s a contender.
  • 4 Giant Fox – been close with these sorts since breaking his maiden for $20K. Dropped way back last time and made a strong close, although that may not be the best strategy today. Certainly has the numbers to be a factor here.

Race 7

  • 10 It’ll Be Fine – started his career on the turf including including a run in the Sunday Silence where he only lost by 3/4 length. Next out was on a muddy KEE track where he finished a close second. Although he ran a clunker on the fast dirt next out, he’s proven at the distance and is well bred for the dirt. Castellano takes the mount and that has to helps.
  • 8 Blazing Truth – has shown good speed in five turf starts for Bill Mott. Given that any other potential speed defected, he should inherit the lead here and that makes him dangerous. Actually is nicely bred for the dirt and should have no issue with the distance.
  • 6 Havermeyer Street – one race on the dirt at a much lower level, but he did make a nice press and close while wide into the stretch. Actually went off as the favorite in that race so was well thought of. A couple of decent works should have the horse on edge.

Race 8

  • 4 Girlaboutown – Been off for two months for NY bred specialist Mike Hushion. Has been working steadily for the return. Was a strong winner at seven furlongs, came back at a mile and faded a bit in the stretch. Still, she’s well bred for the distance, and figures best if she runs back to her SAR race.
  • 5 Official – The other winter giant David Jacobson trains this one. Just beat a NW1X last out on a good AQU track. Last two before that were on the turf, but she seems to be one of those horses that runs well on both but prefers dirt. No surprise to see these two battling to the wire. Jacobson’s go to guy Cornelio rides.
  • 6 Canal Six – Another last out winner for Tom Morley. Is six of seven in the money lifetime, one for one at AQU, and one for one at the distance. Is every bit as competitive as the first two, and given the pressing style, could be picking up pieces in the stretch.
  • 7 Bridgetta – Claimed last out by Schosberg, and immediately jumped up. Schosberg is not good first off the claim, but he does take the blinkers off today and perhaps that helps the horse to relax. Not without a chance but more likely underneath in the exotics.

Race 9

  • 13 American Hero – one of the MTO’s. He finished a close second after having some trouble at the start and altering course in the stretch. He’s at the right level and perhaps finally has it figured out.
  • 12 Spa City Treasure – has one race on the fast dirt at GP where he finished second. Late bloomer has three second place finishes in six lifetime starts. Nice pressing style. A little dicey in the win slot but the character of the race changed substantially with the scratches and his chances are certainly elevated.
  • 14 Party On – Two races on the dirt. The first one was at this level and he settled at the back of the pack, eventually showing interest in the stretch and passing a few horses. Next out he hit a muddy surface and was over his head in a MSW. The drop coupled with dirt experience makes him a contender.
  • 2 Tottie Royer – debut race was on the dirt. He had some trouble at the start in that one and didn’t show much. The two races on the grass were helpful in terms of experience. Low profile trainer and a jockey that has had very little success, but has a shot to make the exotics.
  • 1a Zabaione – part of the coupling that stayed and one of the MTO’s. Breaking from the far outside in a mile race can’t help, but given he’s the only one that hasn’t started enough to get a good handle on his running ability, it doesn’t make sense to leave him out.