Belmont September 25

Not a bad day yesterday. I selected five winners on top including $23 horse Chasin Chama in the nightcap. We’ll try to keep it going today.

Update: It has been raining steadily at BEL and all the races are off the turf. As you can see, many of the original selections have been scratched and I’ll probably be passing on most of the card since my selections were made for fast and firm.

Race 1

A poor race just got a little poorer. 5 Heidi’s Holiday has a win in seven starts on a wet track so could be thrown into the mix.

  • 3 Vinhdication Spot – has been off since mid-July. Early speed sort had seriously lost condition and the rest undoubtedly will do her well. Given there is no other real front-running sort in the race, she should be able to control her destiny. Seven pound bug Jean Pierre Vallellanes makes his BEL debut 
  • 6 Wisdom of Oz – Obviously didn’t fare well at SAR but won her last start at BEL. Dropping down the class ladder to where she belongs.
  • 4 Marcy – seems to be better on the dirt than on the turf. Rudy Rodriguez takes over from low percentage trainer Gabriel Goodwin and he is 27% with new charges. Better figures than the field on the dirt. If Rodriguez has her cranked, she is the danger.

Race 2 

No MTOs in this off the turf race. 4 Kelly’s Prize probably becomes the front runner and does have a third on a wet track.

  • 7 Wine Burglar – Moves from Chad Brown to Rudy Rodriguez who is a high percentage first off the claim. A win and a place in four turf starts at BEL.
  • 2 Zafiro Azul – another that likes the BEL turf. 1 for 3 with a place negotiating this distance. Taylor Rice has had the best success with her and returns today. 
  • 3 Too Good to B True – Bob Dunham takes over for Phil Gleaves on runner that has been racing in Florida. Has competitive figures.
  • 6 Flirtatious Spring – 1 for 19 Linda Rice trainee not as likely for win as somewhere in the money.

Race 3 

  • 4 Canal Six – Broke her maiden in November at AQU, was on the shelf until the SAR meet. First race on a muddy track not a sparkling effort, but ran respectably in the Fleet Indian. Third off the layoff looks like a charm.
  • 5 Annie Walker – Speedy filly ran lights out to break her maiden at BEL at today’s distance. Should be the controlling speed here.
  • 7 Jcs American Dream – had a good second to Accomplish First at BEL in June but  was unimpressive in two state-bred stakes at SAR. Plodder looks to turn the tables back at BEL.

Race 4

  • 6 In Spite of Mama – showed some speed in debut on the dirt. Lost all chance at the break when bumped hard, didn’t appear to care for the turf, back at dirt today. Puts blinkers on; should help her focus.
  • 3 Raiza Sultana – bred for the distance and the dirt. Has been well bet in her two starts. Has been working well since her last start.
  • 5 Building Permit – Rare Chad Brown trainee that looked mediocre in her first start in the same race as Raiza Sultana. Has been working like Brown is serious about making her comeback a successful one.

Race 5

  • 5 Overthespeedlimit – first-timer for Anthony Dutrow has been working steadily for debut. Dutrow fair with first starters, a little better with MCL debut horses.
  • 3 Oh Poggibonsi – first-timer for Englehart. Tiz Wonderful progeny win at a fairly high percentage first start and trainer has high ROI with MCL debuts.
  • 2 Special Invitation – ran poorly in his debut race, but should have things figured out today. Rudy Rodriguez fair with short layoff horses, better with MCL.

Race 6

Three horses are left in this race including the two MROs 3 Ginny’s Grey and 4 My Place.

  • 6 Flamingo Lane – Adsit trainee five wins in her last seven starts. 2 for 2 on the BEL turf. Has been masterfully handled and all systems look go.
  • 1 Edie – Two wins in her last two starts at BEL. Castellano goes over to One Penny Place but Maragh a good substitute.
  • 7 Scenario Analysis – Competitive figures. Second off the claim for Mike Maker. Expecting an improved performance today.
  • 2 Indian Starlight – beat Edie and Scenario Analysis in her last at SAR but 0 for 5 on the BEL turf. Has some talent and wouldn’t be a surprise.

Race 7

  • 5 Shore Runner – three seconds in three tries at BEL. Been claimed both times in last two outs. Consistent and just needs to show a little more heart.
  • 7 Sandy’z Slew – another that seems to like the BEL turf. Plenty of tactical speed .
  • 4 Shatak – One start at SAR of a seven month layoff. Should be improved second start and with the turnback in distance.
  • 8 Bluegrass Springs – 2 of 6 on the BEL turf. Plodder that should be closing in stretch. Claimed last out by Assmussen and we’ll see if he changes tactics. Not a lot of pace to set it up, so may be up against it.

Race 8 

MTOs One More Chief and Stalagmite are likely to be the horses that get bet. One More Chief probably the better of the two. Wake Up in Malibu has a win on the muddy BEL track.

  • 11 Latigo Trail – hard trying front runner gets a slight nod in a very competitive race. Took 7 tries to break his maiden but came back with a good race in his NW1X. Will run and hope he doesn’t get caught this time.
  • 3 Saltine Warrior – runs his best at BEL where he has five in the money finishes in six starts.
  • 6 Ogermeister – Beaten by the very tough Billy the Bull last out. Has placed in state-bred stakes and this is as good a spot as any to try to pick up a win.
  • 1 Wake Up in Malibu – Weaver trainee finished second in his only try at this distance on the BEL turf. Didn’t negotiate the distance last out at SAR and the turnback should help today.

Race 9

The MTOs are Invasion Point and Hidden Warrior and both are likely to be bet heavily. Hidden Warrior has the best one race figure.

  • 8 Manoffire – shortens up today after fading at a mile and a sixteenth. Drops into MCL also.
  • 9 New Dude – first back off the claim by Barker in April. Adds blinkers.
  • 7 Leatherhead Lurie – Another that seems to need a shorter distance to be successful. 
  • 2 Junger – 11 starts with only one second but that was at BEL. Has speed and may hold on for a piece.