Well, as The Who said, just another tricky day for you.Thursday continued the odd week at BEL with another seconditis horse won (Downgoesfrazier) and someone popped a $20K win bet on Surfing USA, who then promptly ran out of the money. I’ll do a short blog piece on that tomorrow. But for now, let the madness commence for Friday.
Race 1 Betting Value – C 4-3-6
This really looks like a two horse race on paper – actually a one horse to win and one horse to place race. Money Changer looks set to break his maiden. The Pletcher trainee just missed a head at SAR, has all the speed in the race (and the track has been relatively kind to front runners the last couple of days), and has the best figure to boot. 9-5 would be really optimistic to hope for. Courtier had a nasty trip first out. He was wide and steadied. He is trained by Bill Mott who is well known to have almost no chance with his firsters, but is much better second out. The second place finisher from his SAR race has already come back to win, and while he’ll have a tough time running by Money Changer, it’s not out of the question. Someone has to run third and it might be Rimbaud. He went off almost 60-1 first out, but should catch better action this time. He’s bred to like a dirt mile.
Race 2 Betting Value – C 4-1-7
Lil Honey Badger was claimed in June for $30K at CD by low profile trainer William Heffner, who promptly took the horse to SAR and put her on the turf in two optional claimers NW1X for $75K. She showed good speed and didn’t fade badly in either turf start. She drops to a $50K NW3L today and has as good a shot as any to pick up the win. Bartiromo raced well in an OC NW1X at BEL but clunked at SAR. In fact, she has a win and a second on the BEL turf and should loom the major threat. Al’s Gal has a second over the BEL turf and convincingly won a $40K NW2L last out at SAR. Bruce Levine and Jose Ortiz have been a potent pairing and the step up in claiming price makes sense.
Race 3 Betting Value – C 2-5-1
This really doesn’t look like a great money-making race. Of the starters, Treasure looks very good. She went off at 5-2 in her debut for the strong Jimmy Jerkens stable and only lost by a length and a quarter. Paris Bikini goes for Todd Pletcher who seems to be live every time he puts a 2 year-old on the track. She has a nice series of works and some nice works on the SAR training track. Pletcher can afford to wait until horses are ready, and while she may not have made the SAR meet, she still has a chance at some of the richer fall races. Onus is coming out of the same race as Treasure. She broke slowly, but steadily made up ground until hanging in the stretch. She’s certainly eligible to improve.
Race 4 Betting Value – C 2-1-8
This is a competitive race for the wrong reason – nobody looks that good. There are two 1 for 20somethings and two who are just about to enter that category in eight entrants. Let’s face it. You don’t drop a horse from ALW $75K to a $16K claimer just because you’re desperate for a win. The drop on Sheriffa seems very negative, but if the horse holds together around the track she is the fastest animal in the race. Andromeda’s Risk is dropping from $25K and has been off since April. I sometimes think the trainer is just prepping the horse for the winter meet at AQU, but in this field and at 12-1 I’ll give the horse a long look. Golden Cheetah has bounced between low level claimers and NW1X and is 1 for 19. I don’t think she is a likely winner, but she could make up part of the tri.
Race 5 Betting Value – B 2-4-1-8
This is another low level, state-bred optional claimer for NW2X. The Lady Says Yes won a state-bred ALW NW1X in June in her first start of the year at BEL, came back at SAR and ran poorly. It’s likely the horse had some physical issues earlier this year, and perhaps they cropped up again at SAR. Trainer Chad Brown has given the horse a nice series of workouts to prep her for the race and assuming she doesn’t have any residual issues she is the best horse in the race. Carribean Beat has been knocking around at this level for a while and has managed to reel off three in the money finishes in a row. She ran strongly in her last against two solid state-breds in Distorted Beauty and One Time Only, and off that race has a big shot to win in here. Run to Mama is coming out of the same race as Caribbean Beat and finished 4th in that race. She has a pressing style and in this race doesn’t have a lot of speed to run past. She has a win over the BEL turf and a nice :36.2 blowout four days ago. She looks ready to run a good one here. Lucky Nancy E. tried a state-bred stakes on the dirt last out and did not impress. Before that she had won three of six and her last two in a row, including a wire to wire victory at a mile at Belmont. She seems to have blossomed under the care of James Ryerson and has the best early speed in the race. If she’s allowed to go out on her own pace, she’ll be tough to catch.
Race 6 Betting Value – C 7-9-1-3
How can you not like a horse called Funky Monkey Fever? She broke her maiden in an off the turf event and has been running into bad weather and races over her head. She should be a bit of a price and if Alvarado positions her well could run by the field in the stretch. Bossanova Lady ran a nice race at big odds in a SAR sprint last out. She’s never run a mile but is bred well enough for the distance. Given her sprint background I’d expect her to be very close to the front. She has my second favorite jockey (anyone else is first) up, but I like the fact that she’ll be ignored. Costenia just broke her maiden in wire to wire fashion and Todd Pletcher thought well enough of her to pop her back in this $50K starter event. I like the wakeup last out and if she takes to the BEL turf could get a piece. Lonely Teardrops broke her maiden over this BEL turf in wire to wire fashion two back and came right back to just miss at SAR. She needed 17 starts to win the first time and maybe she’s figured it out.
Race 7 Betting Value – B 2-9-3
Sweetpollypurebrd ran a strong second first out to easy winner Hard to Stay Notgo. This field doesn’t look like it has nearly the talent of her last and a wire to wire victory is well within her ability. First Service has a steady work pattern for her debut, including a nice five furlong breeze a week ago. Johnny V takes the mount and he rides at 35% for Michael Dilger. Janny Love goes for Linda Rice who has a good record with 2 year-olds but has not done will first out. I like the workout pattern and Cornelio Velasquez should help the horse’s chances.
Race 8 Betting Value – B 6-1/1A-10-9
Zinzay switched stables after a fading 6th in her last out. Graham Motion takes over the schooling duties. Zinzay broke her maiden at first asking and since then has been in two graded stakes and a restricted stakes. She has acquitted herself well in those races but has clearly been a little over her head. She tries to get back on the winning track today and seems to have found the field to do it. Dancing House is making her 2014 debut after running three graded stakes in 2013. She showed a lot of promise at a two year-old and Kieran McLaughlin has hit at a 26% rate with long layoff horses. She may be prepping here, but if McLaughlin has her wound up she could be best. Her stablemate Ballylee has been stuck at this level a while, but has shown some talent. Hobe Wins goes for Graham Motion after first trying the turf at SAR. She had a bit of trouble in that race but still finished with interest. She adds blinkers today and gets a good jockey switch to Jose Ortiz. American Girl is the interesting horse for me. She broke her maiden in Ireland last February, came to MTH and ran evenly around the track. She took a month an a half off and shows one official workout four days ago. The Alan Goldberg/Angel Arroyo combination is not inspiring, but they have won one out of two races together.
Race 9 Betting Value – B 10-7-9-2
The 9th is another $40 MCL for state-breds on the turf. Barrier to Entry is a six start maiden that is dropping from straight maidens. The drop is warranted since she hasn’t been a threat in her previous races. She has decent speed and her best start came over the BEL turf. She looks better suited to the 6 furlong distance than 5 1/2. Quit Smokin has been going off at boxcar odds but catches a much weaker field. She’s got some good tactical speed and perhaps the drop to the claiming ranks will be what she needs to take her over the top. Read It and Weep drops back a quarter mile in distance, a move trainer Terri Pompay has had great success with. She had a lot of trouble in her last and should be contending at the wire. No Trespassers ran her best race last out. She’s certainly no better than a $40K claimer, but if she continues improving she could get a piece.