The midweek races at Belmont have not been what you’d call high quality. Bottom level claimers, NY State bred messes, and NW1X passing as the feature race. Strange things can happen on these type of days, like the 1 for 44 Eurokay by Me winning a race. Sort of blows your handicapping expertise right out of the water.
Race 1 Betting Value – B 2-7-5
Once again the day starts with a bottom level claimer. The fact is that most of the horses at this level have physical issues, are nearing the end of their careers, or are often over-raced. Noble Doss has managed a win and a second from only four races in 2014. Lifetime he has a win, place and show at BEL. On his good days he will press the pace and look to draw off in the stretch. He actually won at this class level as recently as June, and was definitely in over his head in a $25K starter allowance a month and a half ago at SAR. He likes the BEL surface and if he runs back to either of his two recent BEL efforts he should be the winner. Summit County was claimed back out of his last at Finger Lakes by Chris Englehart who is quietly having an excellent year. Summit County has run more races on the turf (16) than on the dirt (7) but has the same number of wins on each surface. Clearly Englehart likes the potential of the horse because he grabbed him back after only one race. His last win was at the $10K level at FL, and realistically this is no jump up in class at all. This looks like a good spot for his second win of the year. Magnificent Moon was claimed last out by Michelle Nevin, another trainer quietly having major success. The horse has two wins in four starts at BEL, and the switch to the Nevin barn can only help.
Race 2 Betting Value – B 8-6-2
The second is a $40K maiden claimer at 1 1/16 miles on the turf. Beauty Surprise is listed at 2-1 on the ML and looks fairly strong against this group. Her last was at a mile on the inner turf at SAR. She was breaking from the 10 post, got jostled out of the gate, went wide into the first turn, but finished in a herd of horses, 5th by only three lengths. She’s had some useful workouts since then and Clement should have her ready to go. Reckless Move makes her second start at the $40K level for high percentage trainer Anthony Dutrow. In her last she prompted a fast pace to the top of the stretch before dropping back. Little Miss Brown set all the fractions before getting caught in the stretch and returned to win her next. If she can relax up front she could last all the way. More Everything is also making her second start at the $40K level and is coming out of the same race as Reckless Move. More Everything stayed a bit closer than she had in her previous races and ran fairly evenly around the track. She could improve enough to be a factor at the wire. Shaikha will draw some action on the basis of her 6 place finishes from 16 starts. She is a low probability to win, but could be part of the tri/super.
Race 3 Betting Value – B 2-7-6
The third is a NW3L for $50K claimers. Shore Runner solidly beat a field of $40K NW2L claimers in his last out and was claimed by Ian Wilkes who has been 29% first off the claim. Shore Runner has two place finishes in two races at BEL and despite the career best figure in her last, has had plenty of time to recover so I’m not overly concerned with a bounce. Joking has lately been in with starter allowance types, probably close in class level to this group. In his last at SAR he ran evenly around the track, but given he had been off since April he probably needed the race. He’s primarily been a dirt sprinter, but in his four turf races he does have a second and third. Asset Inflation soundly beat a state-bred NW1X field at BEL in July at today’s surface and distance. Maker and Castellano have been a high percentage combo, the horse has plenty of natural speed and has been working steadily for his return after a brief rest. Very dangerous if Maker has him wound up.
Race 4 Betting Value – B 5-10-4-11
This is the mess of a race with which they love to start the Pick-6 sequence. Invasion Point gets the nod here. Michael Maker has had great success with the route to sprint move on the turf. In his last Invasion Point had to gun to the front from the 11 post, was hung wide around the track, and was still there to the top of the stretch. Based on his three lifetime starts he seems better suited to sprinting and fits well against this group. Spa City Treasure nearly won a turf sprint at SAR last out, losing a neck to the heavy favorite Eternal Bull. He’s a lightly raced 5 year-old that should be pressing the pace and finishing well. Bad to the Roan has been off since May, but trainer George Weaver is fair with this sort of layoff horse, and has been working him steadily for his return. It’s likely after the race someone will be asking, Whyalwaysme. The horse has been doing all his turf running in route races, and was well enough thought of to achieve favoritism in his last race, his second at the $40K claiming level. He showed a little bit of speed in that race and may appreciate the cut back in distance.
Race 5 Betting Value – C 1-2-6
There doesn’t seem to be much insight here. The favorites look best in this field, and frankly they all seem a bit suspect. Frame broke his maiden at the $40K level last out. He seems to have good speed and should find nice position from the 1 post. It’s pretty clear whatever potential he had when his connections debuted him at SAR last year has diminished and he is probably better suited for this cheap claimer. Herd Mentality has 11 starts, his last seven in diminishing claiming levels. It looks like Steve Assmussen is trying to move the horse out of his stable. Herd Mentality does have a good turn of foot early and fits about as well as any at this level. Perfect Disco is dropping to the $16K level after finishing second in a $25K NW2L last out in May at BEL. There doesn’t seem to be an obvious reason why he should have laid off for four months, then dropped in claiming price. His workout pattern is also a little spotty. But, at least he hasn’t gotten to the confirmed NW2L place a number of the others in here have.
Race 6 Betting Value – C 1-9-6-4
This is a straight maiden for 2 year-olds at a mile. Cover Up breaks from the rail, and if she breaks more efficiently than her last race she should have a say. She may not have a lot of natural speed, and if that is the case she may wind up running the same race as last out, buried on the rail and having to swing wide for the drive. I’m leaning toward the horse breaking better and establishing a more effective pressing position. McGaughey does well with second time starters, and has had great success combining with Joel Rosario. Kinsley breaks from the far outside post, and given the lack of speed she showed in her first outing at SAR she may wind up staying wide the entire trip. She was well thought of in that race, going off as the 5-2 second choice. She looked good enough that her owners paid $300K for her as a yearling and she is regally bred, so the mile distance should not present an issue. Sweet Maya has already had two starts, her last at 1 1/16 miles on the turf when she had a very difficult trip. She was bumped out of the gate, steadied when cut off going into the first turn, stuck on the rail for most of the race and was left with little for the stretch. She’ll be much more competitive on the dirt and at BEL where she already has a second place finish to the very talented Cavorting, the horse that won the Grade 2 Adirondack. Midnight Citra had little on the turf at SAR and returns to the BEL dirt. She seems better bred for the dirt and Mott does much better once his horses have had a race or two.
Race 7 Betting Value – B 5-8-3-1
This turf sprint features the usual mix of budding professional NW2 horses and horses looking to find a win. Lunar Tales was claimed last out by low profile trainer Cam Gambolati for today’s price. He does have a win over the BEL turf and adds blinkers today to help focus his speed. Vecino is really not dropping in class today, going from a state-bred NW1X to this $40K claimer. He was bet off the board in his last, could not keep up with a very fast pace, and really showed little in the stretch. He should be part of the early pace duel and if he runs back to his maiden winning race he will be a factor. Bajan Summer broke his maiden at BEL for $40K and ran well in a $25K claimer at SAR where he was claimed by Gary Sciacca. Sciacca has not dazzled with first off the claim, but he looks competitive in this race. Golden Story goes first off the claim for Jacobson who has been lights out with these sorts of horses. He has plenty of speed and should be in the leading group down the backstretch. He’s been a little heartless in the stretch, but hopefully Jacobson cures that.
Race 8 Betting Value – B 5-8-4-6
I really wanted to like Mack Miller in this race. He trained the first horse I ever bet, a 12-1 shot named Royal Spouse. Fortunately he scratched so I didn’t have to make a decision. Surfing U S A face planted out of the gate in his last and pretty much lost all chance. He was a nice third in the Tampa Derby and ran well at BEL in his debut race. He looks really solid in this race. Encryption was soundly beaten in the Haskell – clearly he was over his head – but prior to that he ran competitively in the Long Branch and the Pegasus. He’s well suited for the distance and has plenty of tactical speed to get position on the outside. Cool Samurai ships in for John Sherriffs off a disappointing finish in the RB Lewis. His maiden race was a flat mile at BEL and he far outran his odds to finish second to none other than Wicked Strong. He’s been with better and should be competitive today. Mosler was a bundle of nerves in his last start. blowing his energy running to the front from the rail post and fading badly. He clearly needed the race since he had been off for close to a year. Trainer Bill Mott is 32% with runners off long layoffs. He takes the blinkers off today and and should improve in his second start of 2014.
Race 9 Betting Value – B 11-2-5-4
None of the MTO’s scratched early which means they are concerned about rain. Barring that, Bella Kateri gets the nod. The switch from Michelle Nevin’s barn to Lisa Lewis is more negative than positive, but she has shown some talent in her three starts and ran a good race at BEL in May. She went off as the favorite last out and disappointed. Let’s hope she’s not just a money-sucker and she runs to all her ability today. Manner of Speaking makes her third start and 2014 debut for Linda Rice, who has been struggling so far at BEL. As a 2 year-old she ran faster than other horses in the race have run as 3 year-olds, and for me this is a huge angle. Rice is fair off the layoff, and if the horse is wound up today she will be a big factor. Roman Reign goes second out for low-profile, high percentage trainer Peter Pugh. Pugh has only five starts with 2nd time maidens, but has won two of them and is 5 for 19 overall this year. In her last race she was tardy out of the gate and still showed a little interest. With a good break she could definitely be there at the wire. Gu Gu Beans is turning into a money-sucker. She has two seconds and two thirds in her last four races, and while she is definitely competitive with respect to figures, she is a bit chancy in the win slot.