Belmont September 15

Picks are for a fast dirt and a firm turf. The first three races feature fairly short fields and favorites that stick out.

Race 1. Familyofroses has had good success at BEL and seems to run better figures on the BEL dirt. The Danny Gargan entry both look good, with Majestic Jessica probably stronger than Champagne Ruby. Moondance Joy has had good success on the dirt, including a win in four tries at BEL.  Primary 2-1-4  Secondary (5)

Race 2.  One More Round ships in from the West Coast for A C Avila. He looks best although I don’t know if he deserves 3/5. Proud Zip takes a price drop today and has competitive figures. Dunk a Din drops out of MSW down to this level today and should be competitive if he runs back to his CD races. Primary 4-6-3 

Race 3.  Roca Rojo will be an even bigger favorite than the previous race favorite. She came from Ireland to win a 7F race at BEL and disappointed at SAR, but off her best does look like a single. Primary 5  Secondary (2, 4)

Race 4.  Lots of first time starters in this MCL sprint. Rosa Dorata and Preziosa  go first time for RuRod and he is strong with two year olds. Tainted has a few starts and finally drops out of MSW and into the claiming ranks. That should help her to be more competitive. Twofreeknights didn’t care for the sloppy SAR dirt. She didn’t break well, and never really got into the race. She adds blinkers today.  Primary 1-8-6  Secondary (4)

Race 5.  Dream Man has had good success at the distance and on the BEL turf. Figures are very reliable. Tuscan Getaway has been off since March. He has a lot seconds and thirds compared to wins, but does have the talent to be a contender here. Dendrite is another with trouble getting to the winner’s circle but has prospects to be part of the verticals.  Primary 8-5-4  Secondary (1, 2, 6)

Race 6.  Madison Blues comes off a maiden win at $40K and comes back at the right level in her first with winners. Magnesia Big Girl takes a small drop looking for her second win. She always seems to give an honest effort. Sauvignon makes a drop from a $50K starter allowance into this lower level claimer. Should be in a good striking position in the stretch drive.  Primary 3-10-6 Secondary (8)

Race 7.  Fulmer came off a two year layoff to run a decent race at BEL and an improved race in his second start at SAR. This is the third off the layoff and should be the top effort. Prophet’s Cat has had some trouble cracking the winner’s circle but has been running competitively at this level. Ordinaire looks to be the speed in this race and has run good figures in his last two.  Primary 9-11-1  Secondary (4, 6, 8, 10)

Race 8.  Lady Kreesa has been running well lately and she is back on her favorite track. Could be good value at post time. Welcoming comes out of a series of minor stakes where she didn’t embarrass herself. Koala Queen ships in from Maryland where she hasn’t run a bad race lifetime. Despite the apparent rise in price, she has the figures to be competitive with this group. Primary 2-7-8-12  Secondary (4, 10, 11)

Race 9. Tough closer today. Wake Up Smiling is 5 of 6 in the money and has the best lifetime figure. One of the entry of Rock Ave. Road and Town Fair is not going to go. Of the two I think the latter is the strongest part of the entry. Dorothy’s Dream had a little trouble at the gate last out but still ran evenly. Should improve with a clean trip.  Primary 6-1-9  Secondary (3, 4, 7)