Belmont September 11

Race 1.  No real insight for me in this one. Leitrim is the speed in here and was claimed by Abby Adsit last out. She is decent 1st off the claim. Toohottoevenspeak was coming in the stretch last race and may appreciate the extra furlong. Saratoga Sight was finally dropped back to the level at which he was claimed, and promptly neglected to catch the break last out. With a better break he has a chance, although a 0 for 35 jockey has to give some pause. Primary 7-6-2  Secondary (3)

Race 2.  Another race that looks formful. Hemsworth was off very slowly in the last race but still managed to pass horses. Albertrani is not known for his success with first timers but does better once his horses have had a race. Baseline is the other Albertrani runner and should be the one to catch. Adulation ran well in the same race as Baseline and makes sense here today.  Primary 1-5-6  Secondary (2)

Race 3.  Very competitive race. I think you can make a case for most of the horses in here. Banner Bill will get bet here but ran well in his second off a layoff at SAR. He was claimed out of that one by Cannizzo, and off his best he’s competitive in this field. A.P. Cino has been reliable in his career, finishing in the money in half his starts. He was claimed last out by Michelle Nevin and she is a good 21% 1st off the claim. Derby Glass has had a good 2016 and has been running consistent numbers. Primary 5-2-4  Secondary (1, 3, 6)

Race 4.  Two year old maiden state bred fillies on the dirt. Amapola has two fast races, including an impressive win in her maiden start at GP where she won by 10 only to be DQ’d back to 6th. Accepting seems primed by Jerkens and picks up Johnny V for the race. Jamison ‘n Ginger ran well at SAR and could be in a good striking position in the stretch.  Primary 5-7-2 Secondary (8, 9, 12)

Race 5. Another race where I have no insight. Conquest Enforcer, Too Discreet, and Front Pocket Money look strongest in here. Primary 6-5-3

Race 6.  Another two year old maiden fillies race, this one at a mile on the turf. I’m not sure why Via Frattina is 15-1 on the ML, but here maiden race was better than looked after being steadied at the start.  I’d be surprised to see her at those odds come post time. Cost Bella is the Chad Brown entrant and he is exceptional with maiden turf fillies. Castellans rides at around 30% for Brown. Compelled had a nice sprint start at SAR and is well bred for today’s distance. Primary 5-10-8  Secondary (1, 9)

Race 7.  The entry of Adulator and Securitiz  looks strong in here. Either one is a threat to win. Doyouknowsomething has been competitive at this price and has done well enough to run in a couple of graded events this year. The jockey switch to Castellano should be a positive. Transparent and Storming Monarcho both have outs in this race. It’s unlikely both will go, but I’ll stick with whichever one DJ leaves in. Primary 1-6-2

Race 8.  This ALW NW1X is full of contenders, some at nice prices. Artie Crasher had been off nine months but came out and ran a decent race. He had a troubled start in that one, but still ran evenly. Clearly he needed the start and should improve today. Performance Bonus is the heavy ML favorite, but his figures are not any better than the top choice. The Brown/Castellano combo pretty much ensures he will be overbet. One Sided goes for Pletcher/Velasquez. He doesn’t have a turf start but has the best lifetime numbers. Primary 2-3-10  Secondary (4, 6, 7)

Race 10.  Danny’s Rush makes his third start for Mott. In his last start he clipped heels earlylosing his best chance. Still he kept on and with a clean trip he should be more competitive. Moving toward the inside from the far outside has to help. Shiraz was another breaking from the outside and improves post slightly today. Horoscope showed speed in an off the turf affair and should be the one to catch today. Primary 4-7-8  Secondary (1, 9, 10)