Race 1

• 3  Money Changer  7/2

• 1  Zamjara  7/2

• 6  Roman Revival  9/2

Money Changer has two seconds and a third on the SAR dirt, adds blinkers and a new jockey in Castellano. Johnny V probably had his choice, and if that means anything, it might be that he thinks Zamjara is the better horse. Both Pletcher horses are dropping well down the price ladder, but I’ll give a long look to the one with likely the better odds. Roman Revival has the advantage of speed, takes the blinkers off and gets a top pilot in Irad. Has to be respected as the one to catch.

Race 2

• 2  Conquest Sure Shot  7/2

• 1  Master Merion  4-1

• 5  Oscar Performance  5-1

• 7  Our Stormin Norman  5-1

Since I’m publishing before scratches, in some of the races I’ll make four selections to account for one of the contenders getting left off. Conquest Sure Shot broke slowly in his maiden race but showed good interest once the race started. That race was pretty quick and he may show a bit more speed today. Master Merion set the fractions in the race mentioned above and looks like the one to catch. If he rates kindly, he’s double dangerous. Oscar Performance is by top turf sire Kitten’s Joy and while the distance is a heavy lift for first timers, the workouts look like he might be the real deal. Our Stormin Norman ran well first time at CD for dangerous trainer Mark Casse. Blame does very well with his first time turf runners.

Race 3

• 2  Random Walk  8/5

• 4  Bronson  3-1

• 5  Bitumen  3-1

This edition of the Sanford Stakes features the well regarded Random Walk. That horse ran easy as he pleased first out and looks to be the fastest to the front. Pletcher had a winner with a MTH shipper yesterday and brings Bronson today. His numbers might be a little lower than some in here, but he should sprint well and his style looks versatile. Bitumen worked hard to get the lead in his debut, but once he did, he was an easy winner. Legitimate chances today.

Race 4

• 8  Come as You Are  3-1

• 7  Onlytheshadowknows  7/2

• 4  Tree Top Lover  4-1

Although the experienced maidens (Condominium and Chomsky) finish in the money often, I’m leaving them out of the win slot. Instead, I’ll go with Come as You Are dropping out of straight maidens to the $40K level. He gets an interesting switch to 7-pound apprentice J Torres who has won one race in two tries for Wesley Ward. Ward is 34% off the long layoff and the horse had a bullet at five furlongs a couple of weeks ago at KEE. Interesting prospect. Onlytheshadowknows is another dropping from straight maidens. Should appreciate the cutback to 6 furlongs. Tree Top Lover showed big improvement when dropped to MCL. He was taken by Jacobson and although DJ isn’t as prolific first off the claim, he still has talent.

Race 5

• 2  Altar Boy  3-1

• 5  Big Rock  7/2

• 10  Cort  4-1

• 3  Canadian River  9/2

Altar Boy has improved on the turf and may have run a better race had he not bobbled at the start. I think he is motoring in the stretch at the shortened distance.  Big Rock gets a switch to Castellano and Clement is 21% moving route to sprint on the turf. Top figure gets him home on top. Cort  has a win and two seconds in his last three and could be good value here. Canadian River ran well at this level last out and Johnny V stays for the ride.

Race 6

• 2  Pretty Boy Flash  5/2

• 1  Conquest Reformo  3-1

• 8  One Liner  4-1

• 6  Forge  4-1

Pretty Boy Flash had all sorts of trouble first out but showed interest and that is a positive.  $375K purchase off a $4,500 stud fee.  Conquest Reformo took a while to get going last time but got into the race late. One Liner goes first time for Pletcher/Velasquez and at the Spa that is something to always keep an eye on. Forge goes for the other first time specialist, Chad Brown. Some sharp works.

Race 7

• 5  Hothersal  3-1

• 2  Inordinate  3-1

• 8  Ascend  4-1

• 4  Taghleeb  5-1

Hothersal broke poorly last out but in the G3 before that he missed by only a neck. Off that race he is far more competitive then his 15-1 ML suggests. Inordinate has a win and a third at this level since moving to North America and he seems to be cycling to his best form. Ascend has a stout closing kick and hasn’t been worse than second in his last six starts. Taghleeb is another far back closer but given his pace figures he may be the surprise in this group.

Race 8

• 7  Rappel  3-1

• 1/1A  Wyeth/Catapult  3-1

• 2  Our Way  4-1

• 5  Gios Calling  5-1

Race 9

• 2  Cadeyrn  5/2

• 3  Conviction  3-1

• 4  My Man Sam  3-1

• 1  Gray Sky  4-1

Cadeyrn flopped in the mud in the Sir Barton, but ran well at this level last out. Should be out prompting the pace. Conviction comes out of the same race and ran well first time with winners. My Man Sam comes out of a couple of G1’s, and while he was nowhere in the Derby, he ran on well for second in the Blue Grass. Perhaps overrated at 8/5 ML, but dangerous because we haven’t yet seen his best. I’m not a big fan of Gray Sky, mainly because other than the Matt Winn he hasn’t been competitive in graded races, but he may have a class edge here.

Race 10

• 2  Miss Temple City  5/2

• 4  Wekeela  7/2

• 10  Isabella Sings  4-1

• 6  Dacita  9/2

This renewal of the Diana puts together a very competitive field. Miss Temple City has a win, two seconds and a third in her last four G1 races, and didn’t embarrass herself at Ascot. Strong contender. Wekeela has a couple of seconds in G1’s since coming to America, and seems to be getting stronger. Will be making a big change moving to the SAR grass. Isabella Sings has the advantage of being the speed here and has run well in her last two Graded events. Pace may make this race. Dacita has also been running well in graded events and Irad stays for the ride. Figures say she could hang with this group.

Race 11

• 2  Winter Springs  3-1

• 1  The Imposter  7/2

• 10  Dream Man  4-1

• 3  Aripeka  9/2

Very difficult race on paper. I’d look to spread around, especially with the top four selections.

There you have it. Day 2 at the Spa