Selections

Saratoga July 22

What a difficult first card at Saratoga. I’d be shocked to see a lot of favorites today, so I’ve made sure to identify a few price horses. My general approach is to go slowly the first part of the meet and pick up as the meet goes on.

Race 1

  • 5  Thirst for Glory  3-1

  • 3  More Zen Tea  7/2

  • 6  Beyond the Green  4-1

  • 1  Clifton Pleasure  5-1

Thirst for Glory fits well at the level and had a close-up third at SAR as a two year old. Breeding suggests the 9 furlongs should be no issue, and his regular running style should be effective here. More Zen Tea should be close to the front. He has a win at a mile seventy, and is better than 50% first or second in 45 lifetime races. Contessa and Leparoux clicked for one win in four races last year, and although he doesn’t have a high percentage first off the claim, this horse should be coming to the race in nice condition. Beyond the Green looked like he needed his last and should show better today. Clifton Pleasure ran a huge number last out and should have had plenty of time to recover.

Race 2

  • 3  Tizza Temper  7/2

  • 8  Cha Cha Heels  4-1

  • 6  Bree’s Got Heart  4-1

Tizza Temper is by Tiznow out of a Tapit mare and while the workouts are nothing special, I like their regularity and the fact that J Englehart often uses Saez when he’s serious. Cha Cha Heels goes for RuRod and Irad who are a high percentage combination. Workouts look like typical RuRod. Bree’s Got Heart has a shorter work pattern, which I usually see as a positive, and one sharp work early in the sequence, which I like to see. Low profile connections should ensure good odds.

Race 3

  • 5  John Eddie  3-1

  • 2  Chipit  3-1

  • 6  Roll Tide Roll  4-1

John Eddie was claimed off a solid win at $16K and should be the one to catch. Chipit comes in from MTH where he has done well at the OC$30K level. Perhaps the price drop will get him over the top. Roll Tide Roll was snagged last out by Jason Servis who is 37% first off the claim. He’s got a second in two tries over the SAR dirt.

Race 4

  • 2  Sentiero Italia  9/5

  • 1  Distorted Beauty  3-1

  • 7  Selenite  7/2

Sentiero Italia has seen nothing but G1 and G2 races since last July and finally drops to an OC$80K race. Makes his 2016 debut and McLaughlin is decent off the long layoff. Rosario has been a good earner on the McLaughlin stock. Distorted Beauty goes third start off a layoff and seems to be improving with each start. Selenite raced well at this level last out and has a win and a third on the SAR turf.

Race 5

  • 2  Sense of Beauty  3-1

  • 5  Siralen  7/2

  • 10  Candida  4-1

  • 12  Annie Rocks  5-1

Sense of Beauty takes the blinkers off ran fairly well first time on the turf and Pletcher gives her another shot at a lower level today. Pletcher and Johnny V are a tough combo at the Spa. Siralen ran decently in a minor stakes at CBY last out but before that had a good second at the FG. Looking for an early upset. Candida makes a substantial drop for Pletcher. She’s got three in the money in five starts on the turf. Annie Rocks should be able to clear to the front and might be the one to catch.

Race 6

  • 1  My Sweet Stella/Jumby Bay   5/2

  • 7  Special Risk  4-1

  • 6  Torrent  9/2

Only one of the Pletcher entry of My Sweet Stella and Jumby Bay will be going, but both look like they have outs in this race. Breeding and workouts look good for both. Special Risk is one of three with a start and looks best of the horses with experience. Torrent managed to attract Jose Ortiz who should compete for the riding title this year. Blame is a high percentage sire with first time two year olds. A fast work on June 19 ups her stock.

Race 7

  • 5  Apologynotaccepted  5/2

  • 1  Anna Rae  7/2

  • 2  Takrees  4-1

Apologynotaccepted showed good speed in her last two outs and cuts back in distance today. Given her 16 length maiden win, she could dominate this field. Anna Rae won by daylight in her debut last year at this track, and wasn’t embarrassed by her finish in the Frizette. Couple of good races this year and seems to be in a reasonable spot today. Takrees just missed in the Cicada and is another in a softer spot.

Race 8

  • 7  Platinum Spark  3-1

  • 5  Made Me Shiver  7/2

  • 1  Olive Branch  4-1

  • 2  Inspired Flight  4-1

Platinum Spark looks strong winning her maiden and came back with a sharp workout six days ago. Should be contesting the pace today. Made Me Shiver should adapt well at the six furlong distance and ran very well to defeat a decent field of maidens at CD. Olive Branch came from off the pace to win going away and looks like sprinter breeding top and bottom. Inspired Flight has a nice series of works and Edgar Prado comes in for the ride.

Race 9

  • 11  Tin Type Gal  3-1

  • 5  Ancient Secret  3-1

  • 1  Thundering Sky  4-1

  • 10  Try Your Luck  4-1

Tin Type Gal is a bit hidden in this race. As a two year old she won the prestigious Miss Grillo and then came out this year and ran a lifetime top in her first start of the year in the Wild Appleseed. I like the potential for her to improve today. Ancient Secret won the Wild Appleseed a month ago and looks to keep her undefeated record intact. Should adapt well to the slight jump in distance. Thundering Sky has only been out of the money twice in eight starts and even in those she was close. Just missed in the aforementioned Wild Appleseed last out and has to be considered a main contender today. Try Your Luck showed well in the G3 Regret last out. Is cross entered at IND so may pass this spot.

Race 10

  • 5  Market Strength  3-1

  • 1  Silver Romeo  4-1

  • 11  He’s One Wild Dude  5-1

Market Strength takes a substantial drop in price for Chad Brown who is effective with short layoffs and turf horses. Silver Romeo made a good 2016 debut in a full field of $40K maidens. Figure was a lifetime top, a very positive sign. He’s One Wild Dude looks like he has enough speed to clear from the outside, but the post position is what kept me from rating him higher. His last race figure tops the field.