Selections

Belmont June 10

Race 1

  • 4  Encrypt  2-1

  • 1  One More Round  5/2

  • 2  Preservationist  3-1

Encrypt makes his third start for Kieran McLaughlin with two second place finishes to his credit. Given his $1.2 million purchase price, much had to have been expected from the horse. In his last he had some trouble at the start on a muddy track and had the jockey lose the whip, plus he was four clear of the third place horse. Gets another chance today. One More Round has done most of his running out West except for the Grade 3 Lexington. It’s a little disappointing to see him making his sixth start without a win, but perhaps the change of scenery will make a difference. A C Avila is still listed as the trainer and he does little to inspire me, but the horse’s numbers suggest he’s in the right place today. Preservationist is a $485K purchase making his debut for Jimmy Jerkens. He’s bred to win early and shouldn’t have any issue with the distance.

Race 2

  • 2  Pine Needles  3-1

  • 6  Daring Duchess  3-1

  • 4  Real Smart  7/2

Pine Needles had been off since November and ran a decent race on the soft KEE turf a month and a half ago. Should have had plenty of recovery time. Fits the conditions if she runs to her top figure she’s a major contender. Daring Duchess made her 2016 debut at GP in February and after a poor start made a nice close to only lose the whole thing by three. Pressed the pace at BEL three weeks ago and in a race with very little apparent speed, she may have a big advantage. Worth a long look. Real Smart was racing at minor British tracks before shipping to BEL for his last start which she won. She jumps up in price today, but her figure says she’s a contender.

Race 3

  • 6  Theogony  9/5

  • 4  Joint Return  2-1

  • 2  Mei Ling  3-1

Theogony has been moving around lately, moving from OP to HOU back to OP and then to PIM. She’s had a second in a G3 and didn’t disgrace herself in the G1 Apple Blossom or the G2 Azeri. She’ll be depending on an honest pace but she should be comfortable with the 12 furlong distance. Joint Return finished just behind the top choice last out. A little dicey considering she hasn’t visited the winner’s circle in a couple of years, but she fits well in this group. Mei Ling appears to be the speed in this race and often these long affairs are stolen by horses setting passive fractions. She’s recently G3 placed and hasn’t run out of the money at BEL lifetime.

Race 4

  • 3  Lady Stardust  3-1

  • 1  Saratoga Two Step  7/2

  • 4  Hey Mike  4-1

The Tremont features a field of recently graduated two year olds, including the filly Lady Stardust. Her maiden win was a big effort and I’m banking she’ll beat the boys today. Saratoga Two Step is another who ran lights out in his maiden and has every reason to contend today. Hey Mike finished second in the KY Juvenile in his first with winners and gets another chance to win a stakes today.

Race 5

  • 2  Appealing Maggie    3-1

  • 6  Kareena  3-1

  • 4  Quick Release  7/2

Appealing Maggie is riding a two race win streak and showed she belongs in this stakes off a bang-up win in an OC $80K last out. Should be the speed of the speed in a race loaded with it. At 10-1 ML she’s worth a long look. Kareena is coming off a nice maiden win at KEE and is one of the many with speed and a good pace figure. Quick Release showed well in the Miss Preakness and actually has the best last race figure.

Race 6

  • 8  Datamining  3-1

  • 4  Rock Eagle  7/2

  • 9  Good Response  4-1

Datamining was claimed last out by Jason Servis who is 38% first off the claim. Before breaking his maiden he had been close in some FG turf races and has plenty of upside. The hot Jose Ortiz gets the mount. Rock Eagle fits the condition, although he’s had a bit of trouble cracking the win code. Good Response finally broke his maiden last year and almost made it two in a row. He laid off from October to April and came back in a NW1X at KEE where he didn’t show very well. Should improve in his second start of the year.

Race 7

  • 1  R Limo Joe  5/2

  • 4  Maniacal  3-1

  • 7  Adulator  3-1

R Limo Joe dominated a cheaper field of optional claimers and earned a very high figure when doing so. Having Castellano aboard shouldn’t hurt. Should be value today. Maniacal won his 2016 debut in strong fashion. Ward is having a good BEL meet and an even better 2016, Johnny V stays for the trip. Adulator is another pressing horse in a race loaded with speed. His last race showed his talent and his BEL works are dynamite.

Race 8

  • 6  Always Sunshine  5/2

  • 5  Catalina Red  5/2

  • 1  Holy Boss  7/2

On a day where races seem to be filled with speed, this one is no exception. With Private Zone ruled out of the race, it suddenly become a lot more open. Always Sunshine has won four of his last five, including a G3 last out at PIM. His numbers hold up much better in the absence of PZ. Catalina Red is on a two race win streak, although he hasn’t won a graded affair yet. Has the top last race figure now. Holy Boss has been in nothing but graded races since last year’s Amsterdam, although he hasn’t had a win since that race. Has a much better shot today to break in.

Race 9

  • 1  Sea Calisi  2-1

  • 7  Guapaza  3-1

  • 3  Trophee  4-1

Sea Calisi won her first start in NA when she took the Sheepshead Bay in early May. That race gave her a lifetime best figure She was a Group 2 winner in France and Group 1 placed in Britain and France. Brown should have her wound up for this one. Guapaza has two Graded placings since shipping from Chile, including a second to the top choice last out. Another Chad Brown horse and he is just dynamite with turf fillies. Trophee has struggled against graded competition, but Clement should have her ready to roll here.

Race 10

  • 9  Kaigun  3-1

  • 5  Da Big Hoss  7/2

  • 4  Up With the Birds  4-1

Kaigun specializes in longer distance races and showed well in the recent Man O War. Prior to that he was first or second six times in a row. Hard trying horse who should be in top condition for the capable Mark Casse. Up With the Birds has a number of Grade 1 races including the Canadian Invitational, the Arlington Million, and the previously mentioned Man O War. Off his best races he’s a contender.

Race 11

  • 6  Disco Bill  3-1  **HORSE TO WATCH

  • 8  Move Forward  4-1

  • 4  Courageous Colonel  9/2

  • 7  Street Fightin Man  5-1

Horse to Watch Disco Bill heads this field. His last is better than looked and he’s a better horse on the turf. He broke in the air last out, rushed to make contact with the main pack and faded as expected. He’s a horse far more used to running toward the front and with a clean break today he’s got much greater chances. Move Forward has been steady if not remarkable at the MCL level. Courageous Colonel made a big improvement when moved back on the turf last out. Should be the one to catch. Street Fightin Man was gelded after his last race. He’s been consistently close and perhaps the “equipment change” gets him over the top.