Race 1
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2 Malibu Princess 5/2
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4 Delay of Game 5/2
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3 Genuine Happiness 3-1
The opener is a tough affair with a number of legitimate contenders. Malibu Princess should be the speed here and comes in off an interesting GP race. She adds blinkers today, although that shouldn’t be a big deal. Her race was against a blowout winner by 10 and the second place horse won her next out. Even though the race is a half furlong longer, she may be able to set a comfortable pace and have things her own way. Delay of Game was also demolished by a runaway winner at GP, but came back at KEE to only miss by a length while racing wide. The combination of McLaughlin and Lezcano is 42% at this meeting, Genuine Happiness took well to the BEL dirt and Jose Ortiz stays for the ride.
Race 2
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1 Core Portfolio 2-1
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5 Eden Ridge 3-1
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3 Clifton Pleasure 7/2 ** HORSE TO WATCH
You could make a case for most of the horses in this race but you have to go somewhere. In this very competitive affair, Core Portfolio came off a short layoff to win a a $55K starter, and drops into a NW1X for statebreds today. Hasn’t been worse than second in his last five. Eden Ridge is another coming out of a $55K starter that he won for high percentage trainer Danny Gargan. Numbers fit in this field. Horse to Watch Clifton Pleasure doesn’t have a great win percentage, and he’s been at this level a while, but he usually gives an honest accounting. His last race was much better than looked and he has to be given extra chances today.
Race 3
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2 Sweetrayofsunshine 2-1 ** HORSE TO WATCH
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3 Doublebolt 5/2
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5 Making Havoc 3-1
This race appears loaded with speed, and no standout closer. Sweetrayofsunshine has won just about 50% of her lifetime starts and lately 3 of her last 4, with a second at this level two back. She was a Horse to Watch off her May 1 race, then went to MTH and won there. Figures are very competitive. Doublebolt comes off a short rest and drops back to a one turn race where she seems to be a better horse. Johnny V signs up for the ride. Making Havoc tried stakes company at CT last out, giving a fair accounting of herself. Fits the level and has competitive numbers.
Race 4
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1 Tailoredforsuccess 3-1 -
9 On Leave 3-1
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10 Flower Valley 4-1
Tailoredforsuccess is one of the two Chad Brown horses entered here. She made her debut at this distance, a fairly difficult ask for a first time maiden. She didn’t really threaten, but she comes back with blinkers on and the experience. Her figure from the last race puts her in the mix. On Leave makes her 2016 debut for Shug McGaughey. She gets first Lasix and the works suggest she should come to the track in shape. Flower Valley really improved when moved to the turf and could be good value in this race.
Race 5
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1 Achnaha 5/2 ** HORSE TO WATCH
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6 Al Khazaaliya 5/2
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4 Return to Grace 3-1
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2 Suffused 7/2
Achnaha comes off the Horses to Watch list. She closed into a dawdling pace to win her last, and although that was an OC 25K, she was competitive in two G3 races previously. Hadn’t shown a lot of interest in winning, but the deep sustained style seems to have been a good move. Al Khazaaliya has three races at three different tracks and this will be the fourth race in a row on a new track. There are a lot of contenders in this race, but I like the Pletcher/Velasquez entrant based on her good current condition and ability to go the distance. Her numbers are competitive as well. Return to Grace seems to have returned to hand after a couple of flops in graded stakes. Still, she’s multiple grades stakes placed, and has the top last race figure. Suffused ran well first time in the U.S. and then ran into a buzzsaw named Onus. The hot Jose Ortiz takes the mount today.
Race 6
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8 Uncharted Course 3-1
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2 More Zen Tea 7/2
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6 So Noted 7/2
Uncharted Course gets the nod in this mess of a race. He had race topping numbers in the three races prior to his last and should be the one to catch here. More Zen Tea has a 25% lifetime win percentage, and just won his last at this price level. Englehart is very good off the short layoff. So Noted hasn’t finished out of the money in his short career. Ran well off the long layoff last out and should improve today.
Race 7
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9 Bode’s Dream 3-1
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1 Olive Branch 7/2
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7 Lightning Dove 4-1
Every horse in the race has exactly one start, and none of the horses ran a bad one, so this is really wide open. Bode’s Dream was a $300K purchase as a yearling and justified her price by easily wiring a field in her debut. Should be able to stay out of trouble on the outside of this field. Olive Branch already has a victory over the BEL dirt and has the top last race figure in the field. Lightning Dove won the same day as China Grove in almost exactly the same time. I like the fact she is an Uncle Mo, but as I said, there won’t be a surprise no matter who wins the race.
Race 8
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8 Zindaya 2-1
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3 Mississippi Delta 3-1
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1 Shrinking Violet 4-1
In another of the races in a very competitive late Pick-4. Zindaya gets the nod for Chad Brown. She ran well in the License Fee the first week of the BEL meet, although the time may be a little inflated because the turf was lightning fast. Steps up to seven furlongs where she has a win in her lone start at the distance. Mississippi Delta cuts back a furlong after running a couple of good races in graded stakes at a mile. Numbers are very competitive. Shrinking Violet steps up to a distance she hasn’t negotiated previously, but she’s in good condition and was only a length behind the top choice in the License Fee.
Race 9
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3 Billy’s Kitten 5/2
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8 Vulcan’s Forge 3-1
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2 Nigel’s Destiny 7/2
Billy’s Kitten is only making his fourth start for Chad Brown, He won at a mile and a half last out, and drops back a furlong today. Has had a nice rest in prep for this race and Brown in 24% in the second start coming off the long layoff. Vulcan’s Forge should be coming from off the pace today. Ran well in his first with winners and drops way down today. Nigel’s Destiny ran very well first time in America despite bobbling at the start.