This is about as tough a day as I’ve seen in a while. I guarantee some upsets, but I’ll be damned if I am confident about predicting them. 

Race 1      6-10-4      C=2    V=2

In a tough maiden field Grand Sky gets a tepid nod. Seems to be on the improve and his last race figure looks strong. Tiz a Chance was off a year, came back to run a close third in his 2015 debut despite some trouble. Will probably go favorite. Memory Keeper has a high turf number and makes his turf debut today. Looks competitive off his last.

Race 2      6-4-9       C=2    V=2

Sudden Surprise comes off a couple of state-bred stakes wins. Stretches out another furlong and we’ll see if he can hold his speed all the way. Has never trailed a horse in three starts. Get Jets was right behind the top choice last out and may sweep by with another furlong to run. Governor Malibu is still a maiden but I like the way he’s run. Should enjoy the stretch out.

Race 3      9-5-1      C=2    V=2

Palace is obviously the horse to beat. He’s a multiple Grade 1 winner and was coming hard on top sprinter Rock Fall. Not 6/5 on my line, but hard to discount. Ostrolenka has the look of a horse that lost her way in the second half of the year, but I’m looking at one telling statistic – 4 for 4 at BEL. She doesn’t run well anywhere else, and at 15-1 I’ll be thinking about the upset. Loki’s Vengeance has been competitive all year and should have a good spot from the rail.

Race 4      9-5-8      C=2    V=2

La Verdad is the class of the field, but showed some vulnerability in the Gallant Bloom. On the other hand, she’s not been headed in her last five races, is 7 of 8 at BEL and 3 of 4 at the distance. Willet has been competitive with these sorts for a while, but has had trouble cracking the winner’s circle. In a race with 6 top speed horses, you have to look at a closer somewhere. Tricky Zippy is an improving 3 year old and has shown well with older. Not without chances.

Race 5      3-5-8      C=1    V=1

Saratoga Snacks has had a productive 2015.and likes the BEL dirt. Should be up in the front and has shown good heart when challenged. Royal Posse was a mild upset winner of the Shipman and in a field top heavy with speed he seems to be more tractable. Sciacca should have him at the top of his game. Given the presence of all the early/pressers, it wouldn’t be a surprise if some horse came flying from the back and the best prospect is Empire Dreams. He doesn’t always get there but in seven starts at BEL he’s been first or second six times.

Race 6      9-11-7      C=1    V=1

Ancient Secret was a $225K purchase off a $5K stud fee, so this horse must have looked impressive in the sales ring. Chad Brown is dynamite with turf fillies. Lulu’s Blues goes first time for Clement. Abbreviated workout pattern, but the works show some speed and I trust Clement will have her ready. Tough Temper has been prepping at Finger Lakes but the works look good. Englehart/Saez are winning at a 34% clip.

Race 7      6-3-2      C=2    V=2

It’s the usual suspects. Lubash has shown himself to be consistent and should appreciate the mile and a sixteenth more than the 9 furlongs he missed at last time. The horse that beat him, Kharafa, only has one bad race in the last two years, the Grade 3 Oceanport. No reason to expect he won’t be fighting for the win today. Iron Power was slightly subpar last out, but he’s a quality runner and may represent the overlay. Let the odds guide you here.

Race 8      10-2-1-11      C=1    V=2

Animal Appeal was a strong maiden winner last out and looks to move through the next condition.  That last race number would give her win number two. C d’Cat has been looking for her second win and has been about a close as she could get without winning. Gets back to her winning distance today. Miss Matzoball ran lights out in her 2015 debut. That was on a sloppy track and moving back to the turf should be in her favor. Improvement puts her in the mix. Full Tap flopped in the slop last out, but her one win came on this turf at this distance. In the mix.

Race 9      10-5-1      C=1    V=1

She’s All Ready ran respectably in the Frizette. Has a good turn of foot and is on the improve. Melodic comes off a state-bred stakes win and looks especially good considering the trouble she had last out. Trappe Play looked strong breaking her maiden but will have to break fast to maintain position.

Race 10      9-5-8      C=2    V=2

Wonder Gal had no chance in the Test but prior to that had been competitive in Grade 1’s and 2’s. The drop into an ungraded state-bred race should be a good tonic for her. TemperMint Patty is another with experience in open graded stakes. Consistent figures this year. I have to believe Repole and Pletcher knew what they were doing when they purchased her and this could be the break through race. Hot Stones was the Saratoga Dew  winner. Likes the BEL dirt.

Race 11      5-12-10      C=1    V=1

This is a better finishing race than we get most days, the Ticonderoga. Discreet Marq is a multiple graded stakes winner. She failed in the Yadoo, but she’s back her favored BEL turf and at her best tops this field. Old Harbor comes off a win in the Hettinger. Gets a nod because of her BEL record. The Tea Cups was a longshot winner of the Yadoo but failed as the favorite in the Hettinger. Englehart has done wonders with the horse this year and the story can continue today.