Happy Independence Day to everyone. Great card at BEL with some first rate stakes. Picks are before scratches so some adjustments might be necessary.
Race 1 3-4-6
Another Pletcher/Velasquez two year old debut horse. No need to say more. Paynes Prairie finished second in the Tremont last out. He’ll likely be close to odds on here. Abbot had a nice three furlong work a week ago and could be ready to run.
Race 2 6-3-1
Elraay looked strong breaking his maiden and every reason to expect hi to run well with this group. Meshell has looked good in his two starts with winners and is competitive here. Predicate has a tendency to finish in the money instead of win but looks solid in the verticals.
Race 3 2-8-6
Rock Eagle looks to try a softer NW1X group instead of the stakes runners last out. Much more realistically placed. Bigger Picture did well against a few of these last out and has three wins to his credit. Chances at some odds. English Minister has been close his last three starts, although he is more likely in the money than the win slot.
Race 4 1-5-4
Wealth to Me was overmatched in the Brooklyn but fits this field well. Recent figures very consistent. Matrooh is two for three under Chad Brown’s tutelege and looks to be improving with each start. Samraat was running with top three year olds last year. Only question is whether the connections want him all out today or if they are looking for future runs.
Race 5 8-6-4
Depeche Chat is riding a two race win streak, the last at this level. Veteran loves to win and is as fast as any horse in the race. Barrel of Love is coming off a win against state-breds. Diane Balsamo has good percentages going sprint to route and first off the claim, and the 12-1 odds make him worth a look. Thomas Hill is another longshot with outs.
Race 6 6-1-5
Miss Ella won the Grade 2 Beaumont and ran well early in the Grade 1 Acorn. Young runner getting more experience and is probably better suited to the distance cutback. Promise Me Silver another that looks more like a sprinter. Prior to the Acorn was on an eight race win streak, including seven stakes. Irish Jasper just won a G3 at PIM. Steps up a bit today, but loves to win.
Race 7 4-1-7
Texas Red returns to the races in a G1 affair. He’s the ace closer in a race with plenty of pace. If he’s right he’ll be tough to keep out. Blofeld is the Pletcher/Velasquez entry and he has two G2 wins to his credit. Smart Transition doesn’t have the resume of some in here but I think his last was better than looked. Worth considering at the odds.
Race 8 2-8-7
Bolo has been far better on the turf than on the dirt and has a field dominating figure. Startup Nation ran well in the Penine Ridge and should improve off that effort. Worth a look at the mid-range odds. Postulation goes for top Euro trainer Dermont Weld and regular rider P J Smullen. Was recently gelded. I like that Weld made the trip with this horse.
Race 9 6-5-2
Tonalist was a surprise loser to Honor Code in the Metropolitan, but should be in better shape in the Suburban. Hard to pick against. Effinex ran a clunker in the Brooklyn, but was a winner in the G3 Excelsior. Maybe a little ambitiously placed, but his figures say he can run with this bunch. Coach Inge was a winner in the Brooklyn by essentially going wire to wire. Not much speed signed on so may be in the cat bird seat in the stretch.
Race 10 2-6-10-7
Lady Eli is the best three year old filly turf horse running and no reason to pick against her here. Spanish Queen is coming out of the American Oaks at SA and on figures could be the one to make it difficult on Lady Eli. Outstanding invades from Ireland and looks like the talent of the Euro invaders. Main concern is the distance. Consumer Credit is listed at 12-1 on the ML after finishing a length and a half behind 7/2 Spanish Queen. Odds say must consider.
Race 11 3-2-4-6
The Belmont Sprint closes out the July 4 card. Private Zone is more suited for the seven furlong distance. He’s got the speed and the figures and has done well on the BEL dirt. The Big Beast is a legitimate graded sprinter and will get a better trip than he got in the Carter. Greem Gratto is completely mis-evaluated at 15-1 ML. He’s speedy and likes the distance. Can’t discount. Stallwalkin’ Dude likes BEL and the distance and is coming off a good runs in his last three stakes.