This was the follow up to the Magic Number. It was in the last issue of Horseplayer that never got published. An Englishman named Dylan Evans has written recently about something he calls risk intelligence (RI). It refers to a special kind of “intelligence” we all have (to varying degrees) that we use to define … Continue reading Risk Intelligence→
This was the follow up to the Magic Number. It was in the last issue of Horseplayer that never got published. An Englishman named Dylan Evans has written recently about something he calls risk intelligence (RI). It refers to a special kind of “intelligence” we all have (to varying degrees) that we use to define … Continue reading Risk Intelligence→
Most discussions of how we can improve horseracing start with lowering take and having full fields. Lowering take is a no brainer. Actually, that may be a poor turn of phrase since tracks that lower take seem to be few and far between. Apparently you do need more brains than we are witnessing. While the … Continue reading Low Take, Full Fields→
The difference between horseracing and life is that in horseracing you pay your taxes every day you play. It’s called the take. Then if you win, you pay again. What a game. For those not familiar with my selection style, I’m looking to identify the three horses most likely to WIN a race. That means … Continue reading Aqueduct April 16→
For those not familiar with my selection style, I’m looking to identify the three horses most likely to WIN a race. That means sometimes I’m going to ignore the horse that has a high probability of finishing in the money but a low probability of winning. That also means if you are a vertical bettor … Continue reading Aqueduct April 12→
For those not familiar with my selection style, I’m looking to identify the three horses most likely to WIN a race. That means sometimes I’m going to ignore the horse that has a high probability of finishing in the money but a low probability of winning. That also means if you are a vertical bettor … Continue reading Aqueduct April 11→
“In the Criminal Justice System the people are represented by two separate, yet equally important groups. The police who investigate crime and the District Attorneys who prosecute the offenders. These are their stories.” Opening to the TV series Law and Order I’m going to paraphrase that a bit. In horseracing there are two separate but … Continue reading Betting the Races→
I had an interesting discussion this morning with some other handicappers about selection sites and making claims. It mainly came down to whether you can claim you “picked” the winner if it wasn’t the horse you put on top. There really isn’t a definitive answer (well, that’s not totally true – individually everyone was sure … Continue reading Public Handicapping→
Slow week last week with Thanksgiving and all. Horseracing took a back seat to family and the holiday, as it should. After a prompt from Jason Beem, I thought about doing this week’s blog on the uncomfortable chemistry between Peyton Manning and Papa John on those pizza commercials, but I really didn’t have much more … Continue reading Betting Two Horses→
This is a re-post from an article I wrote in July. Seemed appropriate since Willet and La Verdad hooked up again last weekend. Anyone who says, I’m going to try to beat Horse A with Horse B because Horse A’s odds are “too low” doesn’t understand value. It’s one thing to say, Horse B has … Continue reading Value Betting→