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Belmont September 13

In the interest of time I’m going to do a brief analysis of all the races except the features today.

Race 1

  • 9  Cashmere Cat – Good early foot, switch back to winning jock Rosario
  • 1  Breakeven Analysis – Game first out of 2014, should improve, Brown/Castellano helps
  • 4  Santa Elf – 10 of 13 in the money, 3rd off claim for Bruce Brown, can improve today
  • 6 Baratti- Tries turf today, should improve off last

Race 2

  • 2 Strum – Missed break first out but outran her odds, switch to Pletcher barn a positive sign and should help
  • 4  Cali Star – So far seconditis but this one turn mile should be to her liking
  • 5  Garzoni – Makes 2014 debut but 2013 races showed promise; raced greenly and has obviously needed the time to mature
  • 7  Sun and Moon – 5 seconds in 7 lifetime starts; she might be ready to run by horses or just drain more win money

Race 3

  • 6  Pisco Bliss – First start of 2014 for Chad Brown who always has them ready; Ortiz in the saddle has been effective for Brown
  • 7  Dynamon – Improving and placed correctly; has to get a better spot down the backstretch today
  • 3  War Melody – all sorts of difficulty last race but looking for a better effort today
  • 12  Coviello – drops into $40K claimers, gets switch to J Ortiz, showed a little improvement in last

Race 4

  • 7  Moonluck – dominated cheaper company last out, was taken by shrewd David Jacobson; best races at BEL
  • 5  Pecorino – just missed in the SAR mud last out; should be pressing close to the lead, likes BEL
  • 3  Gentrify – broke his maiden last out, should do well against this group.

Race 5

  • 5  Sleeping Giant – goes for Assmussen, ran better than looked at SAR
  • 2  Magnum Opus – Excellent workout pattern, Dutrow is pretty good at having them ready first out
  • 4  Night Prowler – Brown and Castellano can’t be ignored
  • 11 Blazing Truth –  on the improve, Mott horses usually need a race or two

Race 6

  • 11  Giant Jo – Flopped in SAR mud, but back at BEL where he’s run his best
  • 4  Handsome Dennis – A few more starts between wins than I’d like to see, but last at BEL showed well; claimed last out by Maker
  • 5  Aheadofthecurve – last two were in the mud and off the turf, before that broke his maiden; in the right spot today
  • 9  With Expresssion – showed speed his last two, should be pressing today
  • 2 Papa Freud, 3 Navajo Ca Lo, 7 Sonnyandpally, and 10 Dominate are all in professional NW2 position but can be used in the show and fourth spots in tri’s and super’s

Race 7     The Noble Damsel

  • 1 Byrama has a puncher’s chance in here. She had been running nothing but graded stakes until her last, the Intercontinental at SAR. She went off as the favorite that race against a solid field of restricted stakes runners. She hasn’t won in a while and she has very marginal success at BEL. She’s listed at 10-1 on the program and that is where she probably should be.
  • 2 Alaura Michele was a disappointment at Parx in the Penny Memorial and at SAR in the De  La Rose. Pletcher trains and that is always something to take into account, but she really looks a half a step below this group. She does have a win and a third in four tries at BEL.
  • 3 Devilish Love is ambitiously placed her by Anthony Dutrow but does seem to be in top form. It wouldn’t be a total shock, but there are others that look better.
  • 4 Love Train is probably the likeliest front runner. She’s another won that looks somewhat ambitiously placed, but is in top form and has the hot combination of Clement and Rosario.
  • 5 Tokyo Time is Grade 3 placed and lately seems to be running very well. Given her stakes experience, she’s not out of the question, but at this level she has been middling at best. She’s listed as the ML second choice, and that should indicate how ambiguous the field looks.
  • 6 Annecdote ships from England where she had been running competitively in Group stakes. Her races at Lingfield, Doncaster, and Goodwood were better competition than any other horse has run against, and there is no shame in losing to Integral. She gets Lasix today and Clement has been very successful with these first out European shippers. She has to be a prime contender.
  • 7 Medeo has been running in the U.S. for a year and a half. She won the Grade 3 Eatontown at MTH in June but faltered in the Matchmaker. The horse has never been in better condition, but even so she seems to be a step below the best horses here.
  • 8 Julie’s Love has been competitive in Graded and restricted stakes in 2013 and 2014. She only has one start this year, in the Powder Break at GP in April and she went evenly around the track.  Given her pace figures she competitive, but she needs to show a sincere interest in winning if she is to succeed. Graham Motion is 24% off the layoff.
  • 9 Baffle Me was the 4th place finisher in the aforementioned De La Rose. She’s 3 of 5 on the BEL turf, and that is enough to make her a prime contender.7 furlongs to a mile seems to be her best distance, and she has plenty of tactical speed to get into the race. She is another top contender.

Race 8     The Sands Point

  • 1 Xcellence is listed as the 3-1 ML second choice and deservedly so. Since coming to America she raced evenly in the Belmont Oaks and nearly won the Lake Placid. In that race jockey Joe Bravo managed to get the horse in trouble in the stretch, trying to drive up a tight rail and having to steady slightly, affecting the horse’s momentum. Despite the DRF race commentator seeming to feel the lost of Bravo was something of a negative, I think it was a relief to see Irad Ortiz in the saddle. Bravo has been nothing short of mediocre on the big stage with bad rides and bad decisions his current MO. I think Xcellence is best here and should have no problem cutting back to the mile and an eighth.
  • 2 Aqua Regia is a MTO
  • 3 Miss Besilu is coming out of two Grade 1 dirt races, the Alabama and the CCA Oaks. She ran well in both of those races and is 2 for 4 with a second on the turf. Given the turf is her favored surface, she has a chance, although her Graded stakes try on the turf was pretty uninspiring. Still, she’s improving and can’t be counted out.
  • 4 Walk Close is coming out of the Tenski at SAR where she suffered her first lifetime loss. She’s 3 for 3 on the BEL turf, and has shown an ability to race in close without intimidation. I like 3 year olds that are showing improvement each out, and that is certainly the case with her. I think she is a must use in the win/place slots.
  • 5 Sea Queen was a disappointment on the ship out to Del Mar because she looked very strong  heading into that race. She tends to run toward the front and should be with the leaders today. She has the numbers to compete in this group, but seeing her and the Bel Oaks winner Minorette both lose next out is a little disconcerting. Still, in this field she is a major player, although her odds are likely to not make her a value bet.
  • 6 A little Bit Sassy won the Grade 3 Regret ( but was DQ’d) at CD and followed that by just missing in the Lake George. She is probably the best speed in the race and if the others let her go on soft fractions she’ll be hard to catch. She hasn’t run a bad one this year and can’t be ignored.
  • 7 Queenofzeenile doesn’t look classy enough or fast enough for this field. She seems a pretty safe throw out.
  • 8 Daring Dancer was the winner of the aforementioned Lake George. That gives her two graded stakes wins in her last three, although her race over the BEL turf as the odds on favorite was disappointing. She’ll be one of the crowd choices and although I think she has a chance, she won’t be value and she’s going to have to work a lot harder to get into this race from the 8 post. I think she is a horse that you have to beat to make money.
  • 9 Duff One set all the fractions in the Lake Placid, but with only four horses in the race and none of them real front runners, that race looks a little better than it is. She doesn’t get an easy lead today which means she’s going to have to close by some better sustained runners. Another that wouldn’t be a total shock, but not a horse that looks like a good bet.
  • 10 Ball Dancing interestingly was in the same Prix de Diane as Xcellence at Chantilly and only finished half a length behind that one. She’s lightly raced, having not started until March of this year,  and seems to be one of those improving three year olds I like. However, that being said, I don’t think she is one of those powerful Europeans that comes to America to dominate. She, like Xcellence, is probably in need of softer competition. I’m not so sure Joe Bravo had his choice of mounts and opted here, given what I thought was about as disadvantageous a ride as Xcellence could have gotten. I think Chad Brown threw him this bone for taking him off Xcellence. You have to respect Chad Brown, but the fact is that she is going to have to run her best to get a check. But if she does run her best, she’s a prime contender.

Race 9

  • 4  Daredevil – first out for Pletcher, excellent breeding and a good workout pattern
  • 5  Leave the Light On – Chad Brown firster, big sales price for a horse from a lesser stallion
  • 9 On Tenterhooks – troubled trip first out, best of the horses that have started.
  • 2  Mizumi – goes for Assmussen; Harlan’s Holiday sires a lot of precocious 2 year olds, good steady workout pattern

Race 10

  • 12 Hurry Up Allen – gets the nod in a fairly poor field; Jacobson is hot lately
  • 7 Analysis – 7 starts and he’s been through his NW2X condition; in shape and is better than 15-1 ML odds
  • 8  Morning Calm – has been with better earlier this year, just won against state breds, needs to avoid getting boxed around the turn
  • 4 Mobridge – consistent sort, good pace figure, plodding style not really an advantage her but always is closing
  • 10 Sneaky Kitten has 10 seconds from 20 starts but only 2 wins. Hard to leave out of combination bets in the minor spots. 11 Why Not Whiskey is another with in the money but less probable win tendencies.

Saratoga August 8 – Late Pick-4

The races today present a slighly different set of problems than yesterday’s races.

RACE 7

This race is pretty ambiguous. The horses with the best figures are all chronic N2L runners with multiple unsuccessful starts. The horses with fewer starts for the most part look either not in condition or slower.

  • 4 Loveisheartandsoul has been off since December but Linda Rice has reasonable success with layoff horses. This horse is the fastest in the race. His style is to come from off the pace, and it doesn’t look like there will be a lot of pace to run at, but given his figure superiority I think we will just have to trust he will get in the race. Top choice.
  • 5 Handsome Dennis is 1 for 13 and 0  for 6 on the turf. Of the multi N2L starters he seems most likely to notch his second win, although it is a relative advantage.
  • 6 Uncle Mitcho is 1 for 17 but his one win was on the turf. He is 0 for 3 at SAR. Not a surprise in the money but I just can’t get excited about using these horses on top.
  • 8 Defining Product broke his maiden at LRL and has two starts against winners at Presque Isle. Neither race was particularly bad but it wasn’t particularly fast either. Still, he fits the pattern of a horse that wins this sort of race so he’ll be on the tickets.
  • 9 Dominate is 1 for 21 with 12 seconds/thirds. It gets old saying it, but he is more likely to be 1 for 22 after the race. He may be shorter odds, but that will reflect his odds of finishing in the money more than the win.
  • 12 Anmaat is on the AE list and would be a must use if he draws in.

RACE 8

All the horses in this race seem to be about the same. No stickouts but not a lot of confirmed losers.

  • 2 Lady Rhuarb broke her maiden in May for $40K and that may keep her from getting bet, but she has competitive figures. She has come out much stronger in 2014 under Gary Gullo’s care. She hasn’t been on the turf, but as you know I like speed horses that shift surfaces.
  • 3 A P Johnson broke her maiden at SAR at this distance and didn’t disgrace herself in a subsequent stakes. Linda Rice is successful off layoffs. Her figure as a two year old would be competitive in this field.
  • 4 In Her Day broke her maiden on the inner turf at AQU and usually that form doesn’t translate well to other surfaces. This is her first turf try  and she moves from Linda Rice’s barn to the barn of George Weaver. He has had some success transferring from dirt to turf.  Johnny V picks up the mount.
  • 5 Baby B had been struggling until she was claimed by Richard Schosberg. He found the winning formula and that seems to include turf sprints. Baby B ran a remarkable 11.07 in the last eighth in her win and a repeat off that race makes her a winner. She’ll be a slight top choice.

RACE 9

  • 4 So Lonesome is a contender but seems to be placed a bit beyond his talent. His two wins against winners have been a state-bred stakes and a $40K OC. He has shown speed lately and that seems to fit him better. A contender.
  • 5 Long on Value has two second place finishes in a row, one in a Grade 3 at Arlington. He is a marginal Grade 2 runner and one of the contenders.
  • 6 Bashart  came out in the Manila in 2014 and ran creditably. He takes the blinkers off for Christopher Clement and has every right to improve, especially given he has two wins on the Saratoga turf. Top choice.
  • 7 Bobby’s Kitten has been waiting to demonstrate the form he showed in almost wiring the BC Juv Turf field. He only has win at Tampa in an allowance race and one at Penn National in a stakes, both at a mile. He’ll be the favorite, but I think he is vulnerable today.

RACE 10

  • 6 Murmure is a Pletcher fire sale horse. She started her career as the favorite on the SAR turf and has been disappointing since. Pletcher dropped her to $65K last out an now seems willing to part ways with the horse. It does look like she prefers the dirt–her one dirt race seems to be her best. The strength of this field is underscored by her 7-5 ML, especially considering she has never finished in the money and lost her last two by a combined almost 20 lengths.
  • 7 Prove It All Night has one race on the SAR dirt and it was easily her best. She’s another one sliding down the class ladder, but she has some speed and may lead this field all the way. At 10-1 ML she’s in the mix.
  • 9 Bird Rockette puts the blinkers on for Nick Zito. She has little to recommend other than a decent sprint effort in the slop at Belmont, but in this field it may be enough.
  • 10 Sweethots has one good race on the AQU inner dirt and a fair race on the AQU main, but has consistently showed speed and that makes her a contender. Manny Franco actually has had the best success with the horse and replaces the ironically named Abel Lezcano on board. In a race where you have to reach for reasons to recommend a horse, Sweethots has as good as any.

Distasters at Del Mar

So Del Mar decided to make a wider turf course in an attempt to attract the Breeder’s Cup. Apparently that was what took them past the finish line. 2017 is BC at the beach.

But something went wrong in the first two weeks of the meeting. Four horses have been put down after racing on the turf. Here is Del Mar’s statement:

“Del Mar is deeply saddened by the loss of Thoroughbred lives we have experienced at the track since the start of our season. Four of those losses have come on our new turf course. Despite that, we continue to have the utmost confidence in the course, as do our partners in this race meet — the Thoroughbred Owners of California, the California Thoroughbred Trainers, the Jockeys’ Guild and the California Horse Racing Board – all of whom have expressed that confidence to us today.

Nonetheless, as a precautionary measure, Del Mar will shift the two turf races scheduled for Sunday’s card off the course and run them instead on our main track. Additionally, we will move up scheduled maintenance on the turf course to Saturday evening instead of the Sunday evening schedule that had been planned. The entire course will be aerated and watered starting on Sunday. Track crews will work on it for the next three days and, in the end, reposition the inner rail at the 18-foot position.”

Track officials feel that they are adjusting on the side of caution with these moves. They are meant to give all parties involved – riders, trainers, owners and fans – assurance that everything possible is being done to ensure the track’s first priority, which is safety of horses and riders. Those same officials feel strongly that when racing resumes on Wednesday, the turf course will perform in a positive fashion.

So this is my interpretation of the statement.

Yeah, four horses broke down, but we don’t think it was the turf course. But, we realize that if another horse breaks down before we move the deck chairs around, we’ll have a shitstorm to deal with so we’re going to take racing off the turf.

Del Mar will aerate the course first. The purpose of aeration is to allow nutrients and water to get to the roots of the grass, and it is often used when soil is highly compacted.

So either the turf course was as hard as a rock, or they just had to do something and aeration was the first thing that popped up. I’ve written earlier about turf racing in America. The courses drain poorly, resulting in races being removed from the turf after a rain. Turf courses, other than at a few tracks, are really the stepchildren of the racetrack.

The other thing I’ve noticed is that California turf courses look like putting greens, while eastern turf courses look like the rough.

I’m going to flat out say this. Turf racing is inherently safer than dirt racing. The ground is softer, and as I’ve mentioned in my previous blog, horses don’t slide on the turf like they do on the dirt or synthetic. The roots of the grass stabilize the stride. Del Mar took great pains to issue a statement that said nothing was wrong – they just figured they’d come down on the side of caution. Let’s face it. To admit your turf course is unsafe really screams that the maintenance folks have done something wrong, either the wrong type of grass or poor maintenance practices. And if that is the case, somebody might just scream negligence.

I mean, assuming there was something wrong with the turf course.

The other thing Del Mar is doing is repositioning the rail. I assume this is so that horses are racing on the older, more mature part of the turf course and the turns aren’t quite as sharp. But again, if they think the rail was not in a good place, they are in essence admitting there was a flaw in the track.

There is another possibility of course. It just happened to be Del Mar’s bad luck to have four horses ready to break down racing on the track. From the reading I’ve done, catastrophic injury is usually not a random event.  Horses have multiple injuries which over time pile up until one day – snap! I’m not sure I’ve heard anyone say, maybe it’s the trainers who aren’t diagnosing these injuries, or maybe they are just filling their horses up with anti-inflammatories and analgesics to keep them on the track. As long as we are speculating, it’s at least as much a possibility as poor track maintenance.

I’m going to mention one other thing. If you are a veteran jockey, you have to know when horses are not traveling well because the course is not right. You have to feel the difference. Nobody else has the perspective of the person sitting on the back of a charging thoroughbred. Did the jockeys ever say anything? Hey, the course is hard as a rock. Or, my horse is sliding all over the place. I’m pretty tired of jockeys refusing to speak up for fear that a petty trainer will take them off a mount, or they’ll get a reputation as a complainer. I have to believe if ALL the jockeys adopt the same attitude the concerns related to trainers would be obviated. Jockeys are flat out risking their bodies every time they ride, and if they believe the course is some way or another “unsafe” they need to speak up.

We all want it to be the track because that is an easy fix. Pull some plugs, soak the grass, move the rail and we’re good to go. But we absolutely have to know if it is the horses. I understand that there are necropsies scheduled. I hope they are thorough in describing not only the horses’ injuries, but what other contributing factors may have been at work. Mostly I hope they make those results public. The people risking their money on thoroughbreds have the absolute right to know why horses they bet on couldn’t finish a race.

Tracks are hesitant to ever criticize owners or trainers. They are the life blood of the business (well, except for all the bettors who pay the bills). But sooner or later this boil is going to burst. For every Pletcher or Baffert that can afford to treat their horses like house pets, there are dozens of marginal trainers who have to find ways to keep horses running in order to pay the bills. I just have a hard time believing that the blame isn’t proportioned in some way between the jockeys, trainers and track maintenance people. Do I know the proportion? I wish I did.

But, it can’t be as simple as, it’s 100% the track. Let’s not just make a few simple changes and expect that is the end of breakdowns. Let’s really dig into the problem and find some answers, even if they are the hard answers.