Race 1.     1-7-5

The first race represents the first of a lot of tough races to handicap. Spooked Out is one of the horses with a tendency to stay close to the pace. He gets the Pletcher/Velasquez combo and one thing I really liked – he broke his maiden by almost 10 lengths on this track. If he holds up in the front he’s the one to beat. Celtic Chaos is coming off a win and did beat the top choice in that race. He’ll be coming off the pace and there may be just enough speed to set the race up for him. Scorecard Harry took a while to break his maiden but ran a good one when he finally did. He’s got a little bit of natural speed and seems strong in the stretch. His figure is a little lighter than a couple of these, but he’s not without a chance.

Race 2.     4-3-7

American Creed has been popular at the claim box and in his first race for DJ just missed winning at the same level as today. Off his best he’s competitive and may go off at a decent price. Bass River Road has been hanging around mainly with state-bred optional claimers and his last two races have been good from a figure standpoint. The drop down to $25K should only be in his favor. Jeter does well on the AQU main and seems to be nearing the top of his form cycle.

Race 3.     4-1-2

Madefromlucky flopped in the Donn and in his last on the AQU slop, but he’s had some good distance races and he may turn out to be able to set his own pace. Certainly capable of a Grade 3 win. Turco Bravo is 6 of 7 first or second at this distance and won the Stymie with a nice stretch move. A little bothersome that winning rider Manny Franco goes elsewhere, but given his current condition he has to be considered Kid Cruz has a win and a second in two races on the AQU main. Has a 33% win percentage, but lately he seems more inclined to finish second. Worth a look but probably not value at the ML.

Race 4.     4-1-5-11

Happyness ships over from Europe and Chad Brown is very good with Euro shippers. Looks like one that will be coming strong lately. Chrysolite has consistent turf figures – one of the few in this race to have clear turf form. She’s done well off the layoff previously and David Donk does well off the layoff. Theresas Canyrose has tried to break through at the NW1X, but what I like is that her turf races have provided her best figures. Morethanawarning race decently at GP and hasn’t done badly on the AQU turf. One of the group in here with prospects.

Race 5.     5-3-2-7

Still Krz has been running well since coming off of the WO synthetic, has some ability to push the pace and has a win in two tries at the distance. Little Popsie is on a three race win streak and his figures have stayed consistent. Should be the one to catch. Rectify is 2 for 2 on the AQU main and 2 of 4 at the distance. The switch back to the main should be a plus. Hey Bro seems to be always in the mix at the end and could be part of the vertical here.

Race 6.     7-2-6-10

Iromea was flying late in the Tropical Park Oaks and picked up a good number. She’s done well since coming to the U.S. (and still isn’t using Lasix). We have no idea how the turf will be playing, but if closer’s are doing well she’s the best of that bunch. Tapitry comes off a layoff but has done well off the layoff previously. McGaughey does well off the long layoff and that last work is eye-catching. Off Limits ran well in her last after hesitating at the start and steadying. Another Euro shipper for Chad Brown and if she runs a clean race she’s a big factor. Gap Year has been in an out, but off her best race she wouldn’t be a total surprise.

Race 7.     8-11-3-1

Sharpie’s Dream is 20-1 on the ML. Perhaps that is because Ferraro is not having a great year and Camacho hasn’t had a win this year, but the horse great front speed and finished with a good figure last out. At any sort of odds you have to give him a look. Mind Your Biscuits has been off since last year and switched trainers. He ran well first time out, has solid numbers and gets Irad to take the ride. Benevolence gets Lasix off a decent third despite going wide on the far turn. Is one of a few who have a competitive figure. Brooklyn Major is making his fifth start, has shown some ability to finish close, and at the odds may make a nice vertical.

Race 8.     1-6-2

Clair de Lune has two powerful wins in a row and has a dominant last race figure. Behrnik’s Bank blew away two fields in PA and ran a good race in a state-bred stakes. Plenty of speed and is better than the 15-1 ML suggests. Lewis Bay has already won a grade 2 race and ran respectably in the Davona Dale. Very legitimate win prospects.

Race 9.     8-5-6

This is a very competitive version of Bay Shore, and there are a half dozen horses for which you can make a case. I see very little separation between the top contenders.Richie the Bull ran very well in the Swale. His last work was swift and his figures say he’s competitive with any horse in here. At 8-1 he’s on the consideration list. Unified just broke his maiden a few ticks off the track record and will likely go favorite. The works after that race have been very good and a great case can be made for him as the winner. Cocked and Loaded is a legitimate Grade 3 runner and looked good against KY Derby early favorite Nyquist in the BC Juvenile. His 2YO numbers alone make him competitive and if he has grown and is ready to run he’s primed for an upset.

Race 10.  1-6-8-2

This year’s version of the Wood comes up with a so-so field. Shagaf looks like the stickout off his win in the Gotham. If he takes to the main, he looks like the main contender. Matt King Coal has a lot of front running calls in his four starts. Speed is always dangerous and we’ll see if he passes this big test today. Outwork comes off a second in the Tampa Bay Derby and may give King Coal a run up front. Improving horse for Pletcher. Adventist finished third in the Gotham and should be one of the horses looking to pick up the pieces if the leaders falter.

Race 11.  5-3-2

The Carter is another competitive race. While Salutos Amigos hasn’t been dominant, he’s still a graded stakes runner and looks like he appreciated being back  in NY. Should have no trouble with the 7F distance. Dads Caps takes the blinkers off for RuRod and is the defending champ in this race. Likes this distance and likes the AQU main. Majestic Affair just missed in the General George at Laurel at this distance. That race earned a top figure and he should be a major contender.

Race 12.  6-7-11 

Caldera ships back from SA for DJ.  He’s shown some talent on the turf and if the SA figures transfer he’s a primary contender. Big Gilette has shown good speed in his races on the dirt, and in his one turf race on this course he only finished two lengths away from the winner. Worth a look at the odds. Vulcan’s Page has to overcome the outside post, but should be one of the ones coming at the end.

Yesterday went to a lot of front runners, so I’ve made sure to include them today. We’ll see if the track changes up today.

Race 1.     8-4-6

Good Laugh had three good races on the inner, has plenty of speed and the best figure. Flower Kisser showed good speed on the turf at Belmont last fall and had absolutely no chance last race when she face planted at the start. She’s making another drop and with RuRod training she can’t be discounted. Wire Dancer has a second and five thirds in eight starts. Heading to bridesmaid status.

Race 2.     2-1-7-4

Monty Haul just won for $40K and drops down today. I can’t say I like the move, but perhaps Klesaris has decided time to move the horse.  Should be the one to catch. Bellarmine has a useful pressing style and consistent figures lately. Is another moving down the ladder. Pass the Dice drops in search of a win. He’s been consistent in 2016 and a big one would be no surprise. Son of a General seems to run one, take one off and today would be the run day. He won for $32K in December and missed a nose at $25K in February. TA duplicate of that race would put him right there.

Race 3.     2-1-3-4

Stormin Monarcho has two huge figures in his last two and appears to be the purest speed. Matternhorn is slightly hidden here. He’s graded stakes placed and likes the AQU main. Off his best from last year he’s right in the mix. Samraat has been off a while, but Violette is good off the layoff.  He was well-thought of in 2014 and made a decent return in 2015. Some question marks, but if he is right he can be part of the picture. Transparent is another off a long layoff and is another with back figures that put him right there.

Race 4.     7-9-3-6

Show Giant looks like far and away the best speed. Not sure who challenges him early, so he could have things his own way wire to wire. Baronet was just taken by Sciacca who is 29% first off the claim. Should be in the chasing pack. Sweet Peaches came off the layoff to run a pretty good race. Improved over last year and with another step up she can take the top slot. Silly Face was taken last time by the good claiming trainer Michael Pino. Puts the blinkers on today. Should be part of the pressing group.

Race 5.     1-4-2-3  

Zen Papa has show good speed in all his races and looks to be the best front runner here. Last race figure off the short layoff cements the pick. Bust Another has the top last race figure and if the top pick falters he should be there to pick up the pieces. Ready Dancer finally showed a little after getting stomped when over his head in the grade 2 Swale. Could be good if he can establish a striking position early. Name Changer was impressive first out. He was off slow, bumped, but still won going away. Can’t discount his chances.

Race 6.     8-1-5

Porch Pounder finished second well behind Amoral, but has the best early foot and the best last race figures.  The one to beat. Desperado is a good angle play. He showed speed last year in a turf sprint from an outside post. He looks much better bred for the dirt. He’s better than the 30-1 ML, although unknown trainer Joan Milne has to give room to pause. Still, I like the angle. Justalittlebitmore took the worst of it at the start but still made an early run. A clean break should let him show what he’s got.

Race 7.     10-3-1-7

I had to go with longshot Saint Joseph who certainly looks like he should be winging out on the lead early. He has a win at 7F and a win over the AQU dirt. Surfspun has been has a lot of seconds and thirds, so he’s worth using in the exotics. Consistent figures as well. PArk Ranger just broke his maiden by 6 for DJ and has a series of good maintenance works for his first with winners. Sourcesandmethods may not be a solid choice for the win, but he’s shown a lot of willingness to finish in the money. Use in the verticals.

Race 8.     4-2-5

Bellamy Way smashed a filed last out and steps up a few rungs today. Has been in the money in all but one of his last 10 and while I don’t like the value proposition, he has to be respected for his consistency. Sioux  has plenty of speed and fits in this group. Has been with better and seems to like winning. Sea Raven is 10-1 ML. He is a closer and may be up against it today, but if the speed comes back he can make a strong bid for the win.

Race 9.     3-7-2- 5

On to Trenton just missed last time after a slightly troubled break. Last race figure tops the field. No Tanx Blue Chip beat For a Good Reason last out and finished a length away from the win after having to go wide around the turn.  No better than this level, but a repeat makes him a contender.  For a Good Reason showed improving speed last out. If he stays anywhere near his ML odds, he’ll be my win bet. Shootout has run two good ones in a row and has every right to keep improving.

Race 1.     5-7-2

Adrestia should go off the big favorite off two MSW races where she showed good speed. Blinkers go on today. Have to respect her off the drop, but not likely to be value. Jennifer’s Legacy goes first time for James Ryerson who is 23% with limited starters. Breeding and workout pattern both positive. Cats Halo showed nothing first out on the turf but drops to a MCL. Should do better on the dirt and may surprise.

Race 2.     5-1-7

Petrocelli has been popular at the claim box lately. Should be the clear front speed and should have no problem back at the sprint distance. Fire Alarm just won at this level at Parx and has been running consistently. Should be a factor today. Wizardly drops in price off a win in a $25K NW3L. Last race figure says he is competitive here.

Race 3.     6-1-4

I thought this was a very competitive race. Beautyinthepulpit has gone off as the favorite in four of her last five. There’s a lot of speed in the race and she’s the one that figures to benefit if the race breaks down. She’s at the right level and has the figures to top the field. Igotthediscoinme drops back slightly to the mile distance. Juan Ortiz is a very low profile trainer, but the horse has won at this level and has a win and 5 seconds in six starts at the distance. At 15-1 ML he’s worth a look. Pretension  benefited by the scratch of Longfor the City and should be in the front scrum. Wired a field last out and could make it two in a row.

Race 4.     3-7-4

Indygo Tigress had a rough trip first time out but still beat half the field. Switch to Javier may be helpful. Egyptian Rose has been knocking around at this level for a while. Has shown speed and may hold it longer against this field. Kitai is making her 12th start. May have in the money prospects, but has had too many chances to win.

Race 5.     3-1-4

Ostrolenka has the best last race figure and should enjoy the drop back to 7F. Can run to the front and sustain and considering he’s been competitive with state bred stakes horses this drop should be nothing bu helpful. Drama King seems to be at the top of his game and can run the sprint or route. Between the Lines may be a half step below some of these, but he’s in shape, likes the AQU main and should do well at the distance.

Race 6.     5-2-8

Rapid Rouge was claimed last out by Gary Gullo who is 27% first off the claim. He seems to have found his level at this low claiming price. He just won for $16 and if he runs back to that race he’ll be a solid bet. March Too has been competitive at the low claiming level and seems to be on the upswing in his form cycle. Worth a look at the price. Saint Finian cuts back to a one turn sprint and while he may look a step below, he has some back class and looks to be competitive in this spot. May make the verticals at the odds.

Race 7.     4-1-6

Integrity has shown well on the AQU main. He has plenty of early foot and has the top figure in the field. Narvaez just wired a slightly easier field and hasn’t been out of the money in his last eight races. Always gives a good effort and should be good at the distance.  Manhattan Mischief is one for one over the AQU main and may be the surprise horse here. Last race figure at Parx tops the field.

Race 8.     2-1-3

Eloquent Tribute just beat an ALW NW1X. In her last 10 she’s been worse than 4th only once. Figures well at the sprint distance.  Myfourchix has a win and a second in two starts on the main and has run consistent figures. Blithely is another that never seems to run a bad race, likes the AQU main, and is 5 of 10 at the distance. Would be no surprise in the winners circle.

Race 9.     1-4-5-6

Of the horses that have started, Urbanity sticks out. Her figure sticks out given it was her first start. Dream On has been off a year and a half, but the works have been really solid and at 10-1 in this race she’s worth checking out. Riot Worthy has 9 starts and 5 seconds. Looks more solid for the verticals than the win slot. Hot Cajun Sauce had a poor break first time out but managed to run creditably. Worth considering.

It’s been a rough week at AQU. Saturday was a parade of favorites, and when a longshot finally comes in, it’s an unpredictable $92 horse. Sunday so far looks about the same.

Race 1.     2-7-4-1

Cuadrante is coming off a layoff for Patricia Farro and seems to have the most consistent figures. Good as anything else in the race. Sound of Freedom ran a couple of good races at this level before jumping up to $25K. He’s got the best speed in the race and Ray Handal has shown signs of improvement after the switch to the main, but it’s still a chancey play at the odds. Swivel is one of a few horses with the top pace figure, and looks to be at the top of his game. Still, there isn’t a stickouts in this field so going deep in the horizontals might be advisable. Hushhushmushmush is 1 for 27 with a lot of seconds and thirds. Low win prospects but may make a vertical.

Race 2.     1-7-5

Pretension comes off a win at this level and looks good in this spot. Beautyinthepulpit was getting to Pretension last race and may run him down today. Longfor the City is the best speed in the race and last time he was at this price he wired a field.

Race 3.     2-3-5

Seymourdini crushed a maiden field on the main in November and comes back in a good spot. Three year old has the best figure in the race, and that was as a two year old. Linda Rice is 22% off the layoff. Moon Over a Beauty has shown good speed and has been with stakes horses since breaking his maiden. May surprise at long odds today.

Race 4.     4-2-7

Unrepented had a great year in 2015 but has yet to find his best stride in 2016. However, she has a win in his only start on the main. Should be the one to catch. More Than Rainbows has been dropping steadily since being claimed by low key trainer Luis Miranda. If he can get the horse straightened out she’s got some talent and at 12-1 she’s worth a look. Familyofroses hasn’t won in her last 14 starts and has been off since last November when she finished well back in a state-bred stakes. Not worth 2-1 but has enough talent to win off her best.

Race 5.     3-2-6

Integrity ran a losing race last out, taking a nine length lead early and expectedly fading. If he relaxes today his chances go up. Navarez has the best last race figure and hasn’t been out of the money in his last eight. Have to respect the consistency. All Star Red has a gaudy four for eight record. You can toss his last race on the turf and his two races before that were probably not at his best distance. Should be dangerous at 7 furlongs.

Race 6.     8-3-4

Attractive Ride was claimed last out by Michael Pino who rested him then drops him into this spot. On his best day he’s competitive with this group. Pino is 24%  first off the claim. Hannibal Lecter should be up close to the front and has one of the top last race figures. He certainly fits and at least is worth a look in the verticals. March Too always seem to be close, even if he doesn’t have a great winning percentage. Seems to be on the improve and Barker is having a good year from limited starts.

Race 7.     9-4-1

Bellamy Way has the best last race figure and hasn’t been out of the money in his last eight. Deserving favorite. Altar Boy ran well when shipped back to AQU. Should be coming at the end. Have to respect the Pletcher/Velasquez combo. Danny Gargan has the combo of Lunar Rover and Groupthink. The former may be the stronger of the two, and since Cornelio is named on both there will be a scratch, but I’ll stick with whichever Gargan keeps in the race.

Race 8.     2-7-3

Mei Ling has proven herself with stakes fillies and there is no reason to expect she won’t compete well today. America has run with nothing but graded horses since last May, winning the G3 Turnback the Alarm. She has a win on the AQU dirt and the works look good. Mott has been doing well with horses coming off the quarantine at Payson. Carrumba comes off a long layoff after just missing in the Grade 3 Comely on this surface last year. McGaughey is 28% off this layoff.

Race 9.     4-7-6-5

Urbanity has one start and ran an excellent figure for this field. Looks like a stickout here. Naked Empress is making her third start and seemed to improve a bit last out. Has some outs here. True Charm looks better than her 30-1 ML. Could be useful in the verticals. Riot Worthy has developed a case of seconditis. Certainly has the talent to win, but given the potential low odds and the proclivity to finish just behind the winner, she might be better in the exacta and tri.

Interesting day. A series of starter allowance races with relatively short fields and, as usual, lots of strong looking favorites.

Race 1.     2-1-4

This race is filled with horses that like to run to the front with one exception – Sweet on Smokey. Considering this is a low level starter, I’m going to go with the horse that seems to have gotten better after starting for $12,500. Yes, she’s very low odds, and I don’t think she is a lock by any means, but given hier consistency and some success in a graded event, she belongs on top. Midnight Champagne is likely the speed of the speed and she just wired a field in excellent time. Very dangerous if she runs back to that race. Two Step Flor is another speedy sort that has been running very well since meeting the starter condition. Horses from GG aren’t always as good on the AQU dirt, but given her figures and the presence of DJ she’s another worth a look.

Race 2.     5-4-2

This is the complementary race to the first except it is for the boys. Hector’s Prize is looking for three in a row and is dropping quite a way. Will be the one to catch. Tug of War has a decent record on the AQU main and has been running very consistently. Colin’s Smile won at the $12,500 claiming level two back and doesn’t look quite as classy as a few of these, but his figures suggest he should be competitive.

Race 3.     2-3-1

Sweetrayofsunshine shipped well from the West Coast for DJ. We’ll see if she takes to the AQU main, but her 10 for 23 winning record is very hard to ignore. Stormy Sky broke her maiden for $20K but since then has been racing with much better with good success. Owns a win on the AQU main. Distinctive Lady just won for $32K and should be the one to catch. Have to respect the speed.

Race 4.     2-5-6

Lucky Lotto smashed a field in a $25K starter last out and drops a couple of levels today. Best last race figure. Mr. Palmer’s last six races have been on six different tracks, but he seems a fairly pliable horse. Two seconds in five races on the main, so he’s got enough of a liking for the main to be given serious consideration. Perhaps a bit of a seconditis horse, but dangerous. Bears Personality ships over from Pennsylvania for good percentage trainer Ramon Preciado. Is riding a three race win streak at much better levels than this.

Race 5.     1-6-3

Dad’z Laugh has been popular at the claim box and was taken last out by Bruce Levine for twice today’s starter price. Figures have been really consistent and has enough speed to benefit from the rail post. Beach Hut makes his first start on the AQU main, but certainly fits from the class and speed perspective. Draxhall Woods was just taken by Jeremiah Englehart for slightly more than today’s starter price and Englehart is 24% first off the claim. Another trying the AQU main for the first time.

Race 6.     4-2-6

Don’tbetwithbruno finished second in the ungraded Stymie last out and was well regarded enough to get a spot in the Grade 1 Haskell. Looks to currently be at the top of his game, Royal Posse is another that has been racing with decent state bred stakes horses with good success. His knock – 0 for 7 on the AQU main. Indycott was no match for Bruno in the Stymie but he should be closing in the stretch.

Race 7.     3-7-4

Toledo Eddie has the best last out figure and is one of a number of horses DJ picked up on the West Coast. He’s 12 of 40 lifetime and that speaks well of the horse. Goodtolook was mostly a turfer last year but does have a win on the AQU main, and should be volleying up front with the favorite. Cannizo is not great first off the claim, but at 15-1 I’m looking to hook up a price with the favorite. African Fighter is the clear late speed in the field and if the top two duel each other into submission, he picks of the pieces.

Race 8.     3-4-7

Can Can Baby was another DJ claim from the west coast. She has the dominant last race figure and if she takes to the AQU main she is the main contender. Pushme Pullyou had been running well when she threw her jockey last race. Considering she’s got a win on the main and has been with better, she’s worth a look. Darnley Bay just smashed a slightly less pricey field and is more at home at the route distance. In this field I’m not discounting her.

Race 9.     9-4-5

Cerro has two top figures in his last two. He was taken last out by Danny Gargan who is 26% first time after the claim. Should be up close early and has plenty of finish. Eighty Three has been competitive with a better grade of animal lately. If the front speed folds he should be the beneficiary. Bond Vigilante has a win on the AQU main and has been successful of the short layoff.

Race 10.  5-1-7

La Inesperada has been running very well for Danny Gargan. Has the dominant last race figure. Stroke Play has been in over her head for a while, including a few graded stakes. She was very much a win type in 2015. She’s coming off a two month layoff and trainer Preciado is 30% off the short layoff. Dangerous and may be value. Nuffsaid Nuffsaid was claimed by Danny Gargan and he is good at playing the claiming game. She certainly fits well with this group.

It’s another so-so day at AQU – lot of really low priced favorites that look like they should be favorites, short fields. I’m going to have to apologize for the numbers only today, but I had a critical appointment Thursday night with THE BOSS, and the meeting went on 3 1/2 hours! From my perspective, whatever the cost of the ticket, it was worth three times that much. It is almost that instead of playing for the audience, the audience plays with him. It is amazing how he connects with the crowd.

I did my handicapping yesterday, so I’m prepped but no time to do the write ups. Back with that tomorrow.

Race 1.     5-3-6

Race 2.     4-6-1

Race 3.     3-1-5

Race 4.     2-1-6

Race 5.     2-1-4

Race 6.     5-4-2

Race 7.     4-2-5

Race 8.     1-2-4