It doesn’t pay to handicap for the turf too far ahead of time. There can be days of sunshine and somehow the track is still listed as yielding. Absolutely frustrating for handicappers. Some competitive races today, some because all the horses are equally terrible.

Race 1

• 1 Ring Knocker – Raced well at SAR but was no match in the Frizette in the slop. The top three from that race went on to the BC Juvenile fillies. Wonder Gal and Feathered were third and fourth in that race, only a length out. She’ll be back on a fast track and should improve with this group.
• 7 Eloquent Tribute – Two good races at BEL and actually finished ahead of Treasure in her last. One of the players.
• 3 Embellish the Lace – has been working lights out at Fair Hill for Tony Dutrow. He’s fair with first time MSW, The horse was a $320K purchase at last September’s Keeneland sale so there are expectations for the horse. This field is not so strong he can’t dominate it if he meets expectations. Johnny V takes the reins and that is a positive.
• 5 Steely Magnolia – First timer for McLaughlin. Has a quick series of drills for this race, although none longer than four furlongs. Gets Irad and that should help.

Race 2     The Key Cents     3-2-4-5

• 1 Sweetpollypurebred – Is something of an underdog in this event (people of a certain age will understand the joke). Won her maiden at BEL at 6 1/2, wiring the field. The time was good for two year olds. She came back in the Maid of the Mist at a mile and ran evenly around the track. She has numbers to match any of the runners in this race but may have trouble if she tries to go with My Super Nova.
• 2 Alexandrie – Opened her career on the dirt at SAR but was no match that day for Temper Mint Patty. Came back on the turf and wired a seven furlong field. She has the talent and the figure to be a factor in this race.
• 3 My Super Nova – Took her three tries but she was game in beating a maiden field in October on a muddy BEL track. She was only a neck behind the aforementioned Temper Mint Patty in her debut and then got demolished by the same horse, but of course so did everyone else, in the Joseph Gimma. She’s a solid ML favorite, and while I don’t think she is dominant, I think she’s the best in the field.
• 4 The Lewis Dinner – a winner in her fourth maiden start but was competitive in the three races before that. Her figures are about like the others, so a win would be no surprise.
• 5 Sandra – fourth behind the very strong Quezon and Temper Mint Patty in the Maid of the Mist. Looks like she’ll be strong in the mid-distance races. Might be one of the ones closing in the stretch and if there is a torrid duel, she may be the one to benefit.
• 6  Dunn Listening – Doesn’t look like a match for this group.

Race 3

• 6 Energy Spirit – only two starts for trainer Todd Pletcher. Came from well out to win his maiden event, then went off as favorite in a mile and a sixteenth race on the BEL turf. He was a little wide in that race and ran evenly around the yielding track. His turf figures are as good as any other horse. Might get some decent odds on him.
• 8 Los Borrachos – 11 starts, 1 win and 4 place finishes, and two of the place finishes are on the turf. Certainly has the talent to take this field, but you have to question his willingness to leave the field in his wake. Has a useful series of works since his last and maybe Mott has him more willing to get to the front of the pack.
• 5 Ironicus – only four starts to this point in his career and once McGaughey moved him to the turf he really blossomed. What I don’t like is the plodding style, although Rosario should be helpful in steering him through the traffic. Has the talent and the figures to get the win.
• 9 Sycamore Lane – broke his maiden last out despite a little bumping at the start. Tried a pressing style but Mott has him coming from well off the pace. Lezcano stays for this ride.

Race 4

• 7 Harlans Six – prospered when dropped from MSW to $40K. That race was in the mud and she ran a strange one. She broke on top, then continued to drop back and made a furious but belated move in the stretch. Frankly, I don’t think she is worth an 8-5 ML, but that race does look like the figure topper for this field.  I’d hope to see a little better strategic race this time.
• 5 Laura’s Patriot – Puts the blinkers on for Gary Gullo and he is 26% with that move. I’d like to see a workout or two in the last two weeks, but he’s ok off the short layoff. She was well backed first time out at SAR and you have to take that as a positive sign.
• 4 Secret Militaire – Dropping from MSW, and in this field that may do the trick. Frankly this is a bit of a stab, mainly because the field is suspect. She didn’t break well, didn’t do anything in the race, but she has come back with a good workout. Anthony Quarterolo has not had a good 2014, and he puts Anthony Cruz on the horse to save a little weight. I’m speculating the horse is better than she showed last out – but I could be wrong.
• 8 Rhody Rendezvous – another bit of a stab. She puts blinkers on today, and actually did show a little bit of speed last out. I don’t think she is a good win prospect, but could make and exacta or trifecta.

Race 5

In the main part of the field, there are 10 horses, each with one win and AVERAGING over 20 starts. One of these horses will unavoidably get the win today. When 1 for 20something horses win, it’s often in a field like this.

Update: 11 Frogman Mel drew in from the AE list and immediately becomes a contender. He’s been in against slightly better and only has 9 starts, not many compared to most in this field. Lately he has been closing and he’ll need a little bit of pace to run at, but his figures are competitive. He is a definite win possibility.

• 7 Double Whammy – it’s as if one field just gets worse than the last. I’m resisting putting the ML favorite Wind of Bosphorus on top, so Double Whammy inherits the nod. David Jacobson trains, and I’m sure he’s stinging from suffering two defeats on Saturday with heavily bet favorites. Double Whammy did beat a $40K maiden field, but never got going against a $50K starter allowance field where he was over his head. He hasn’t broken alertly, and has that come from well out of it style, but if you’re looking for something to bet other than the favorite, and you want more than 8-5 on a Jacobson horse, this looks like the one. At least he doesn’t get the chronic NW2L label the rest of them get.
• 1 Wind of Bosphorus – I said I was resisting putting him on top, not leaving him out entirely. Presses but has trouble closing the deal so Bruce Brown has been dropping him Today is as low as he’s been in quite a while. 20 starts and one official win (he won a $35K maiden and was disqualified from purse money for the ridiculous oxazepam violation). In any case he later won a $35K claimer so he remains eligible for NW2L races. He tops the field figure-wise, but it might be a little risky to take 7-5 on the horse. Still, it is about as weak a field as he’s ever seen.
• 9 Toy Cannon – 18 starts 5 seconds, and a bunch of thirds and fourths. Looks reasonable for an in the money finish.
• 6 Papa Freud – another with 29 starts and multiple in the money (but only one win) finishes. Has one really good race on October 1, and if he runs to that he’s in the mix.

Race 6

• 6 Round – practically broke on his knees at the start, tried to take a right turn and Rosario had to yank him hard left to get back in the race (are you listening Victor Espinoza). he went five wide around the turn and finished two and a half lengths behind the winner. Two horses have come out of that race to win. Based on the lousy trip, he gets a figure upgrade, and he was already the fastest in the field. I’m feeling pretty solid about Round, especially if Liam’s Map is going to get 2-5 action.
• 5 Liam’s Map – goes for Pletcher. He demolished a field at Belmont in September in a snappy 1:34.72, but then oddly went on the shelf until today. He sold for almost 12 times his stud fee and he’s been working on the BEL training track about every six or seven days since mid-October. He’ll be tough to beat at his best and with Round they stand above the other starters.
• 3 Finn’s Quest – has two wins lifetime, putting him ahead of most of the field. He hasn’t been out since the AQU inner dirt meet, but Morely is 1 for 4 with horses returning off a long layoff. Has a win and a second at the mile distance.

Race 7

• 4 Congress Park – come out running at BEL at today’s distance but got caught by Ack Naughty. He followed that up with a good third at 1 1/16 miles. On the plus side, high percentage rider Javier Castellano stays, but on the down side trainer Bruce Brown has had some trouble cracking the winner’s circle at this meet. Still looks good as long as a couple of the AE’s don’t scratch in.
• 10 R Y Squadron – ran well in the mud when his race washed off the turf. Chad Brown is best known as a turf trainer, especially with two year old fillies. She showed a lot of speed last out, and the turf has not been playing well to front runners of late, but with Irad in the saddle she should be able to meter her energy.
• 6 Fourstar Crook – bumped out of the gate, wound up at the back of the pack, but closed steadily through the race. Like it when a horse shows interest after adversity, even if it is just passing tired horses. The other Chad Brown trainee has every reason to improve.
• 1 Not Now Joanie – showed good speed in her debut on a yielding track that was unkind to front runners. Should get a good spot out of the gate, and if Saez distributes her energy better, has a chance to hit the board.

Race 8    The Notebook     5-4-7-1

• 1 Breakin the Fever – Won his maiden in fine fashion on a sloppy BEL track, returned in the Sleepy Hollow, showed speed and faded into oblivion. He looks better suited to the sprint and low profile trainer Debra Breed puts blinkers on today. Not without a chance.
• 2 Regal Minister – Dueled all the way around the track with Saint Joseph who came back to win his MSW next time out. It wasn’t a particularly fast time, but improvement is possible.
• 3 Navy Blue – two races on the dirt, then three on the turf, and then he breaks his maiden on a muddy track. Just don’t think he’s good enough here.
• 4 Tizquick – Ran a good second first time out, beating Breakin the Fever in the process, then came out in the B F Bongard in the BEL mud, got taken out at the start by Bullhead Boy, checking hard and quickly backing out of the race. That race has to be a throw-out considering the trouble and the mud. He broke his maiden next out in pretty fair time, coming from well off the pace to run by the field. Can catch a piece of this one.
• 5 Good Luck Gus – Broke his maiden at SAR in July, then ran three state bred stakes, winning the NY Breeders Futurity at FL. He finished second to the powerful Ostrolenka in the Sleepy Hollow. He’s listed at 8-5 on the ML and that’s about what I would expect him to go off. Can sprint, can route and can run fast.
• 6 Deputy Busterstone – Demolished by Good Luck Gus in the Breeders Futurity before breaking his maiden on a muddy FL track. I still think he is overmatched here.
• 7 Bullhead Boy – Has been running and doing well in the NY stakes. Added blinkers last out and if anything they hurt his performance. Pletcher takes them off today and that improves his chances. He’s had more than his share of trouble at the starting gate – brushed the gate last time, lunged at the start of the Bongard, hit the gate and then Tizquick, but still managing to finish second, and in his maiden had a minor bumping incident. If he races clean, he could wind up best.
• 8 Clockwork –  Broke his maiden in a pedestrian time on a muddy BEL track. No reason to expect he is better than his 15-1 ML.
• 9 One Eyed Ray – Broke his maiden at BEl on the turf, finished second in the Laurel Futurity, and then couldn’t handle the yielding BEL turf in the Awad. Sold for three times the stud fee so he’s well though of, but I’ll have to see him proven against this sort of field on the fast dirt before I can get excited about him.

Race 9

• 5 Pretty Nauty – Ran a diminishing second to E Biscuit despite having a bumping incident around the turn with the horse that finished 5th. The jockey actually had to stand up in the saddle, he was trapped behind horses on the rail and he rallied to get within half a length at the wire. He also was part of an early pace in which the first two horses on the backstretch finished 10th and 11th. It was an impressive race. He finished a close 4th in a mile at SAR at this class level. He fits, he has the figure to win and he looks ready. Trainer Jamie Ness doesn’t bring many in, but when he does they are live and he is a 22% trainer this year with over 600 starts. A lot to like and if he stays 7-2 worth betting.
• 1 With Expression – has set the pace in most of his races, a style that hasn’t been particularly successful at AQU. Still, he has good numbers and has shown some heart in the stretch. Should get a little firmer surface to run on.
• 9 All Over Me – Was rank in winning his maiden at SAR in a state-bred $40K, came back at a mile in a NW1X and essentially took himself out at the start. Ran a much improved race for $25K on a yielding BEL track, running his top number. Looking to turn the tables on Coexist and Rontos New York.
• 3 Coexist – twelve starts, and lately has been running in the money. Low probability for the win, but can catch a piece.

Racing at Aqueduct is maddening. One day you have a pick 6 that pays $1,800, the next day you have indecipherable races. Now, they take races off the turf while the sun is shining and there is little time left in the turf season. But, we rise to the challenges.

Race 1

• 1/1a Wealth to Me/Moonluck – It seems like hardly a day goes by when Jacobson doesn’t have an entry in some race. Wealth to Me just won a $35K Starter Allowance by 13 at BEL, and was no more than an additive length from having won his last five races. The horse has been consistent this year and has the race topping figures. Moonluck has won four of his five races in 2014 against competition as good as what he’ll face today. Since Cornelio is named on both horses there will be a scratch. I’ll assume whichever one stays in is the one Jacobson thinks is best in this field.
• 4 Non Stop – on a two race winning streak, the last on the BEL slop. He’s fine on fast tracks too. I like the pressing style  and while his figures don’t quite match the Jacobson runners, he has the talent and heart to win.
• 5 Street Shark – another with a pressing style. He was claimed by Chris Englehart for $40K and returned at this level, running evenly and finishing third. He’s won 5 of 10 this year and is definitely competitive.

Race 2

It looks to me like someone told trainers the races would be off the turf on Saturday, because this race has more horses without major turf experience than with it. Turns out they were right. I’ll stay with Animal Style even though he was my turf pick but I’ll move M J Plus up to the top.  Abilio moves into the top three, The three MTO’s all have a chance, with Love to Run and Market Blaster sticking out.

• 9 Legendary King – has 8 lifetime wins and 7 are on the turf. He obviously didn’t care for the BEL slop last out although he did show a little speed in that race. Before that he only finished a length behind open $25K claimers, and had two wins at Suffolk on the turf before that. Has a good tracking style and is listed at 8-1 on ML.
• 4 Animal Style – I wish I had been paying attention to Parx on November 2 because one of the great angles in racing is to back a horse coming back fairly quickly after being vanned off in his previous race. In any case, that race made him eligible for this $12,500 starter since before that he hadn’t raced for less than $25K. This looks to me like an attempt to steal a race and the 12-1 ML is juicy. He has a place and a show at this distance and is 3 of 10 on the turf.
• 2 MJ Plus – has a lot of fast figures – on the dirt. He has run five times on the turf and has only won once. He’s not without a shot, but at 2- 1 I can look elsewhere for the win.
• 7 Abilio – in great condition having won his last two races on the dirt at a mile. Looks very tough now that the race is off the turf.

Race 3

• 9 B.B.’s Remington – improved substantially when dropped to $40K, although that was on the slop. Is the best of the horses that have started. Contessa conditioning is a plus.
• 6 The Fixer – Never got into his first race on the slop. Drops from MSW to $40K claimers and the track should be much firmer today. He was ovbviously well meant first out at 3-1 odds. Today might be his day.
• 7 Golden Boy – Linda Rice doesn’t have a great record with first timers, but she is effective with two year olds. He has a useful series of works for this debut.
• 1 Can’tcatchjack – total clunker on the slop in his debut race. He wasn’t well backed in that event, but Albertrani had been doing better with young two year olds late at SAR and at BEL. The works since his debut haven’t sparkled, but they should give him a needed edge.

Race 4

• 1/1a Bobby V/Patriot’s Voyage – Again both are trained by Jacobson and both have Cornelio named to ride. Patriot’s Voyage was trained by Baffert and you can see in the workouts the typical fast works Baffert is known for, then all of a sudden he starts working like a plow horse and Jacobson is called in to work his magic. He’s tons faster on his best day, but it’s really hard to back the horse. Bobby V on the other hand was claimed last out by Jacobson, and he is unworldy with 1st off the claim. If he goes he will likely be the favorite and it would be hard  not to back him.
• 11 Summit County – never a good sign that he has more thirds than firsts but he’s been with better in the not too distant past. Puts blinkers on and I’m surprised they haven’t tried them before. Has good enough figures to compete here.
• 7 Perfect Trippi – Dropped over to MTH in search of a win at what looks like a slightly lower price but is essentially just the same bottom level claimers he’s up against today. Carlos Martin is good with medium layoff horses and at 15-1 I’ll include him in exotics.
• 5 Tummel – has a lot of starts this year with mixed success. I like the pressing style and he has chances in a field this weak.

Race 5

• 10 Changewilldoyagood – two starts at a mile, one win on a good turf one on the yielding turf. He ran better than looked on the yielding track considering he ran wide around the track. He’s come back with one decent workout. Has a good running style and a  lot of upside.
• 3 Macagone – has a lot of early foot, but has a tendency to not finish as strongly. Still, he has strong figures and that can’t be discounted.
• 1 Runaway Posse – took until his fourth start to break his maiden, but the move to the turf brought out the best in him and now that he’s figured it out he may duplicate the effort. This field is not so strong he can’t win.
• 5 Iced Over – has been at the level a while and in 8 starts has five third place finishes. May be more useful in the verticals than the horizontals.

Race 6

It was hard to get down to four contenders. I struggled with including the Gary Contessa first timer, Call Daddy is dropping from MSW to MCL and that can signal big improvement, and Bert Stone ran a good race at KEE, although it was for $30K and Gullo is not notable with horses first starting for him. In fact, of the eight starters, each had positives and negatives. In any case, I settled on

• 7 Overthespeedlimit – Came out at $40K and pretty much nothing went his way. Track was muddy, he was wide throughout, and still managed a close second. A series of five workouts since that race, and the last one was impressive. Dutrow is 28% with second start maidens.
• 3 Astron – Ran a decent race in a $75K MCL then went into a MSW where he hit the gate and never got into the race. Has had a lot of trouble getting out of the gate and I have to believe Gullo has used the month and a half off to fix that problem. Certainly has the talent to compete and if he can get out, he has big chances.
• 6 Whateveryouwant – has shown a lot of early foot but no courage in the stretch. Switches to the bug boy today and maybe that will overcome his lack of stamina. Has the overall best figures.
• 4 It’s Perfect Too – but the blinkers on last trip and it almost got him to the wire first. He jumps up today so we’ll see if the shades keep him going or if he is over his head.

Race 7   The Red Smith   Grade 3    4-3-1-8

• 1 Red Rifle – all sorts of speed but not an uncontrollable need-to-lead type. He ran a nice race in the Hill Prince as a three year old, and then Pletcher moved him to the dirt where he ran creditably if not remarkably. He then put him back on the turf and he blossomed, winning the Yankee Affair and finishing second three other times, including the Grade 3 Sycamore at KEE. I think he gets a nod because of his speed and ability to stay the distance. Jockey switch from Johnny V to Bravo is of concern.
• 2 Margano – doesn’t appear to have the class to get involved in this one.
• 3 Dynamic Sky – Has been running graded events in his last five, and although he hasn’t won, he’s had two seconds and two thirds. In his last, the Candian International, he finished two lengths behind likely favorite Big Blue Kitten. He’s for real and Mark Casse is one of the best, if not underrated, conditioners around.
• 4 Big Blue Kitten – the stickout class of the field, but has been beatable this year, with only a restricted stakes in the win column. He is a six year old and might be slowing down, but if anyone can get the best out of him, it would be Chad Brown. He’s always there at the end, but he’ll need a top effort to beat this field. Still the top choice for me.
• 5 Micromanage – ran third in the Bowl Game to North Slope, a horse that had been spending all his time in $62K OC races. He ran a big one for his first race on the green, but will have to contend with Red Rifle if he decides to run to the front again. Marginal at best for me.
• 6 St Albans Boy – Also comes out of the Bowl Game where he finished behind the 5. He can certainly go the distance, but he looks ambitiously placed to me.
• 7 Calvados – I’ve had Calvados – it’s not exactly to my taste but I get the appeal (no pun intended). Pretty much like the horse in this race. He only has two starts in America, but improved in the Laurel Turf Cup. Manchurian High is no Big Blue Kitten and I think if he sneaks in it is for a lesser award.
• 8 Legendary – Five year old gelding ran his best race of the year in the Grade 2 Knickerbocker last time out. He beat Up With the Birds, the fourth place finisher in the Arlington Million. His race in the Lure was not bad, and there is no shame in getting beat by Big Blue Kitten. He has to be in the mix for me.
• 9 Can’thelpbelieving – a young horse, perhaps improving, but I think he has a way to go before catching up with this field.
• 10 Unitarian – won the Grade 2 Elkhorn at KEE. Likes to run from far back, so he’ll need the right pace up front. I’m not enamored with the style so I’ll take my chances leaving him out.
• 11 Manighar – was a good one last year but it seems like age may be catching up with him. Only raced once this year in the Fort Marcy in May and backed out of the race after 3/4. I can understand why people might back him, but there are too many others that you don’t have to guess about in this race.

Race 8

• 3 Leroy Jr. – good tactical speed and demolished a field last time he raced at AQU. Chad Brown trains and although Javier is not riding here, Manny Franco has been doing a good job. Recent work should have him sharp.
• 6 Captain Toews – has been a disappointment most of the year despite looking good in a few fields. This field is weak enough that he could pick up one of the bigger checks.
• 4 Man of Mystery – Poor trainer and Laurel jockey Sheldon Russell comes in to ride. Showed good speed in the slop last out when winning a state-bred MSW. Sometimes a horse can overcome his trainer and this looks like one that might. Gotta like the Fair Hill workouts.
• 5 Mighty Zealous – Broke his maiden in his fourth start in rather impressive fashion, then was given a five month rest. Has fair workouts for his return. Linda Rice runners seem to need a race off the layoff, but have to like late improving three year olds.

Race 9

• 5 Broken Border – Broke from the far outside and stayed wide throughout, still getting up for the place. Has a much better spot today, although the switch from Lezcano to Izzy Rodriguez is a negative.
• 3 Stolen Victory – race well at a mile in an off the turf affair two weeks ago. Tracked a little closer that day and has a couple of speed drills to sharpen the edge. Could be the one if Broken Border doesn’t favor the dirt.
• 10 Kool Charlie – first timer for Dilger is bred better for the dirt than the turf, and Tale of the Cat is a good one for siring precocious runners. Dilger is red hot at AQU with four wins and two seconds in nice starts. Gets Johnny V for the debut. Useful if not outstanding series of works.
• 2 Cosmic Tale – showed lots of speed on the turf and didn’t run that badly on the dirt at SAR this summer. Speed is always dangerous so she gets a nod here.

The main track is listed as good today with the turf yielding and three races taken off the turf. I’ll try to correct the best I can.

Race 1

All three horses I selected have good wet track ratings. No change in this race.

• 1 Ozone – Drops from MSW down to $75K, a move we’ll see more and more as the year winds down and trainers decide which of their horses have real potential as three year olds. This one has been off since July when she lost to one of the good two year old fillies, Cavorting. She’s been working well for a month now and Contessa is fair with long layoff horses. Have to respect this one.
• 3 Diannestillworks – Came out at SAR in what turned out to be a not very productive maiden race and then was thrashed by Feathered who ran fourth by a length in the BC Juv Fillies. She had trouble in that race but it would be a stretch to try to make a case for her since Feathered won by almost 10. She’s another dropping out of MSW, has one of the better AQU winter trainers in RuRod, and has some average works for the return. She’s listed 9-5 on the ML and I’m not sure she’s that good.
• 4 Kisses for Romeo – was in the same MSW that Dianestillworks came out in, and ran a little closer to the pace. Schettino is fair with layoff horses. Longer series of works than the other two and perhaps has a pace advantage today.

Race 2

The only turf race left on the grass. The 2 can be downgraded some on the yielding track. No idea if the turf will be tiring but if it is that may compromise the 3. It may upgrade the 6 Daylight Ride who has run well on a yielding track previously. 

• 2 Orion Moon – finished a short neck behind Waterway Run in the Beaugay in May, came back in July in the Perfect Stranger, technically set the pace, and backed up in the stretch on a yielding track. She seems to prefer a firmer surface and should get that today. Has fired fresh on a few occasions so no worry there.
• 3 Party Now – lightly raced three year old hasn’t run a bad race this year, but has only been in races with three year olds. McGaughey is ambitious placing the horse in this spot but he’s good with layoff runners. Another that likes to run toward the front and will much prefer the mile.
• 5 Tuttipaesi – been off a year and a half, but before that ran in two graded events. Switched to the Mott barn for this run and he is fair with layoff horses. Could be the X factor in here.

Race 3

Yep. Just checked and it’s still a horrible field.

• 3 Distant Thoughts – after watching the races the past couple of days, I’m not sure any horse deserves to be 3-5, and definitely not this one. It’s a weak field, but this is a horse that took six starts to break his maiden and that was against bottom level $25K claimers. Still, he’s got some tactical speed and the best last race figure at today’s distance, and a useful if unspectacular workout since his last race.
• 8 Volatile Markets – Chris Englehart brings this one from FL where he last raced in July. 16 starts and only a maiden victory, but he generally runs in the vicinity of the winner. Perhaps the time off will do him good. He has a couple of nice workouts to boot.
• 2 Thorin – is another horse inching toward professional NW2L status. Trainer picked him up for $5K at MTH, jumped up to $35K and caught a sloppy AQU track, then bombed at Parx in a $10K claiming event. He’s had a lot of trouble getting out of the gate alertly, but if he does he has a shot here.

Race 4

Now off the turf. No reason to change picks. Perhaps the 5 gets an upgrade today.

• 7 Teresas Candyrose – Jimmy Jerkens sends her out for her first start since January at GP. She actually won her maiden race at a mile only to be disqualified from purse money. She switched barns to Steve Hobby for a run at CD in a MSW event on the dirt and finished a middling 5th. Then she went back to the Jerkens barn in a $75K MCL, never got out of the gate and raced wide all the way around but still managed third. She’s got a nice series of workouts for the return and actually has as fast a figure as anyone in the race. Another that has to be a little suspect at 5-2 ML but still looks good in this field.
• 5 Rachel’s Temper – ten start maiden who was in at this price last out but the race washed off the grass. She ran a nice second in that race, running slightly faster than she’s been on the grass. Still her grass numbers are competitive and she’s a good in the money prospect.
• 8 Shine On Erin – has only one start in a state bred $40K MCL. It was a slow race, but given she stumbled at the start and was ridiculously wide coming into the stretch. She was flattered when the winner of that race, Miss Motivation, came back to win her next start. She’s got three works since that one, so she should be about as sharp as she’s going to get.
• 1 Time for Harlan – Didn’t care for the slop in an off the turf event last out and was trounced in a $65K MCL the race before that. At this claiming price and distance she finished a close third in June. She’s at the right level and has prospects today.

Race 5

• 3 Groomedforvictory – won on a muddy track  last out at AQU with state bred OC $40. He’s 6 of 13 at AQU and 12 of 26 at this distance. Horse has only been off a week but Jacobson is good with the quick turnaround. Lots of positives but he is a nine year old and he is racing on short rest. Will probably go favorite but has some competition.
• 6 Joe Mooch – Not a great win percentage but he was taken last out by Linda Rice who is 17% first off the claim. In fact, he’s been taken his last three starts where he has a win, place and fourth. Last race was a fast one and he has good prospects here.
• 1 Fiona’s Hero – Raced two weeks ago at AQU and was taken by Contessa out of that race. Has a lot of tactical speed and he’ll probably have to use it from the rail. Had been with better over the summer and should fit well here.
• 4 Saturday Appeal – only 3 wins in 32 starts, but 8 place finishes. Good probability of an in the money finish.

Race 6

Off the turf. Two of my selections scratched and the MTO 1 Pleiadian made it in. He definitely has to be included in the mix. 3 of 4 on a wet track, just missed at AQU last out, running to the front and only losing by half a length. He hasn’t been this far before, and he’s not well bred for longer races, but if he can meter his speed he has outs. 3 Bedouin Now has spent most of his career on the dirt so he should move up today, plus he has some mile and an eighth races.

• 2 Lay It Down – a bit of a guru pick here. Hasn’t raced at the distance, but tries hard every race. Has good speed and may be able to use it to his advantage in this race – no other horse can really match him up front. Should be good odds at post.
• 8 Shetan – Has been with much better in the recent past. Only has four starts this year but has a win. Doesn’t seem to be a distance specialist, but has pretty good breeding for the longer trips. The main danger.
• 7 Global Asset – Comes in from LRL and has been racing with these types. Has one distance race and ran fairly evenly around the track in that one. Doesn’t have a win this year so he’s suspect in that regard, but this is a weak field and if he’s going to jump up this might be the race.
• 4 Arc Above – got caught in an off the turf event last out but has been specializing in distance races on the turf. High in the money percentage, but has trouble hitting the win position.

Race 7

None of the horses has outstanding wet track ratings so we’ll just leave things as they are.

• 7 Scattered Dreams – four starts with two seconds and a third. Last race figure was faster than anything else in here. Klesaris is good with sprint to route, although his juveniles in this category have had a hard time hitting the win slot. In his race two back where Klesaris claimed him there were four on the line and he was unlucky not to win. I like the running style and the fact that he moved back to MSW.
• 6 Beyond the Green – caught a muddy track for his debut. He was wide in that race and made his move too late. He has a very nice workout from four days ago and he’s well bred for a mile. Have to expect improvement today.
• 1 Humboldt and Frost – Different riders named for him and his entry mate so we might get a strong two for one. He’s been the distance on a muddy track and ran second all the way around. Has excellent chances today.
• 8 Arctic King – Finished half a length behind Humboldt in his last and has a good workout in prep for this one. Started out in the MCL ranks and while he didn’t disgrace himself in the MSW, he might have a tougher time with this group.

Race 8

All my selections scratched leaving a five horse field. Golden Itiz and Frazil get in off the MTO list. Golden Itiz prefers shorter routes, but has a superior wet track rating. Jumps up quite a bit for this one but is not without chances. Frazil has been sprinting lately but has been successful at a mile and an eighth. Is 5 of 7 in the money on wet tracks.In the horizontals I may hit the all button in this race.

• 3 Barrel of Love – Rudy Rodriguez claimed the horse last out and brings him back at the same level just not claim eligible. Had been competitive with sate bred open allowance horses and didn’t run badly in the West Point to some of the best NY turf horses. Is having a good year with 6 of 8 in the money.
• 6 Arctic North – specializes in longer distance races and has been competitive at this level all year. Won his last against two of the others in this spot and no reason not to expect him to run well today.
• 1 Joes Blazing Aaron – Went to the front in his last two mile and a quarter races; held on in one, finished second in the other. He’s capable, expecially considering there isn’t a lot of pace in the race.
• 11 Red Vine – Been racing long all year and seems to always be in competition with Joes Blazing Aaron and Arctic North. Seems to be more in the money than win.

Race 9

Lots of horses with good wet track ratings and Boss Daddy’s is superior. Could move Road to Rockport up. 

• 3 Read the Mirage – obviously didn’t take to the turf last out. Was taken by Thomas Morely and returns on the right surface at the right distance. Good steady series of works for his return. A little bothersome all his success has been on the inner dirt, but still has to be given respect here.
• 1 Scully – was demolished first out by Declassify who went on to become a Grade 1 winner. That was 19 months ago and you have to wonder what he’s been doing since then. Switches to Patrick Reynolds who has given him fair workouts for his return. Note that he had been working at Westfield Farm in Florida back in March and all of a sudden stopped. Likely a horse that had a major physical issue, so be warned he could be any sort.
• 4 Boss Daddy – Opened a clear lead in the stretch against $20K MCL and got caught, not necessarily the best sign, but he does cut back in distance a half furlong and that may do the trick. The track was sloppy in his last and perhaps that is what put the zoom in his performance, and if it stays wet today it seems like it would only help. Abby Adsit trains and that is a plus, but a very ambiguous choice here.
• 8 Road to Rockport – hasn’t caught a fast track in two starts this year. Ran ok in the slop at BEL and then showed speed in a turf sprint. Trainer Jimmy Jerkens is in his favor. You have to give him a chance on a fast strip so definitely should be in the verticals and horizontals.

The first half of the card looks pretty chalky, but the second half looks more interesting.

Race 1

• 1 Big Lute – good tactical speed, top figure in the race and Jacobson trains. He’s hitting at an other-worldly 40% at the AQU meet. Although he has an entrymate entered in Artemus Paperboy, there doesn’t seem to be a need for Jacobson to run that horse back in five days, so he is the likely scratch. He may be
• 5 Mop Head – ran on the AQU dirt 13 days ago after running his last six on the turf and did just fine. Claimed two back by Danny Gargan and he enters him at the price at which he grabbed him.
• 4 Harlan’s Hello – was well thought of as a three year old in 2011, running in the Dwyer and the Pegasus. After the Dwyer he disappeared until June of his year, ran three races and then dropped out of sight again in July. He comes back with a new trainer, Leslie Hinds, one of the worst trainers on the grounds and the current conditioner of the infamous Eva Lil. It’s hard to imagine Hinds improving the horse, but given the short field it’s possible he’ll finish in the money.

Race 2

• 1 Melville – isn’t going to be overlooked by many. In his last he lost contact with the field and made a huge sustained move around the turn, actually taking the lead in the stretch. This is typically what I refer to as “overused information.” The pace in that race was killing and no horse up toward the front early had any finish left. This is not to say Melville didn’t run a good race – he did – but he certainly benefitted from a speed duel between his stablemate Coordinate and Sherifco, who wound up last and second last. On the other hand three horses have already come out of that race to win. He’ll be bet and he may be best.
• 5 Idiosyncratic – Lost to one of the horses that came out of the Melville race in his last out. Thewayyouare is not noted at a turf sire – in fact this horse has a terrible turf rating.  Still, he’s run twice on the lawn and has done ok both times. It doesn’t hurt that Chad Brown is conditioning.
• 3 Hoon – Irish bred debuted in America at CD and ran a good second. I like that the horse got into the race from an outside post, and really lost all the ground he could around both turns. Tried closing on the winner but couldn’t get there. He should improve in his second American start today.
• 10 T Sizzle – Looked good at SAR this summer, went to Laurel to break his maiden and couldn’t get it done. Adds blinkers today and perhaps that focuses him enough to make it home first.

Race 3

• 1 Speedboat Sally – Drops from OC $25K to open $16K claimers. Seven year old mare shows no signs of slowing down, with 3 wins in 8 starts this year. Her task is a little tougher today considering she has spent most of her time at Parx, but she has the figures to top this field.
• 2 In Kelly’s Defense – Came from the midwest, set the pace in a $32K claimer in September but faded badly. Was taken out of that race by RuRod and that is the primary reason she’s one of the picks here. Rodriguez has a 29% hit rate first off the claim and I have a feeling he was correcting whatever problems he saw after snagging the horse. A return to form makes this one tough.
• 3 Darnley Bay – Another one who went to Pennsylvania in search of a win but came back empty handed. Takes a serious drop in price, although she’s really done her best running with low level claimers. Cannizzo is overdue.
• 4 Midnightpositano – has a lot of natural speed and may be the one to catch here. Races against this sort of group have been fair, but I’d like to have seen a better finish. Depends on the track, but not totally outless.

Race 4

• 5 Island Candy – Finished second in a mile race washed off the turf and was claimed out of that one by Michelle Nevin. Nevin is a solid 26% with first off the claim. Has a win and a second at AQU and two seconds at the distance. I’d call her a good favorite, but certainly not untouchable.
• 6 Ocean Boulevard – Presser/closer style should work well in this race. Won at a mile in a $25K NW2L, and didn’t run horribly in an open $25K claimer and a $25K NW3 in the slop last two, and this field is not the toughest she’s faced. She was well enough thought of as a two year old to start in a Grade 2. Good chance here.
• 4 Casual Elegance – ran a good one on the AQU slop but is trained by one of the worst trainers on the grounds, David J. Smith. I debated a long time before including her in the mix. Smith after all was the trainer who got Eva Lil off to a career as a chronic loser. Despite Smith she seems to have speed and has occasionally held it through the stretch. Still playing her with a grain of salt.
• 9 Kiss Cat – Beat Casual Elegance finishing second in that sloppy race at Aqueduct where the 4 finished third. Not much on a fast track, but could be part of the exotics.

Race 5

• 6 Starship Pleasant – Jason Servis runner has good tactical speed, and has a lot of seconds and thirds but only one win this year. Probably at the right level to look for a win. Sporadic works for the return off a two month layoff. One second on the AQU turf.
• 2 Thundering Gale – looking for her third win in a row for Chad Brown. He’s a genius with turf fillies and should have a rail spot early.
• 7 My One and Only – Low profile connections and hasn’t won a race this year, but has been with this sort most of the year. Don’t prefer the plodding style but she should be closing at the end. More likely part of the exotics.
• 10 Issheit – Front running sort jumps up the class ladder. Speed is always dangerous although Formulator tells us that only one horse has wired a field. Still, in the money is a real possibility,

Race 6

• 3 Genre- was wide in her debut on the slop at BEL at today’s distance but closed very well to finish second. Pletcher trains so the 8-1 odds from her debut are a distant memory. Will be bet heavily and may deserve odds on status.
• 8 Fair Point – third start and puts the blinkers on for McGaughey. Should appreciate the mile distance. There are actually a cadre of horses that all have run similar figures, so I’m looking for separators and the blinkers fit the bill.
• 2 My Sweet Girl – was far outside on a sloppy BEL track in the same race as Genre. Barclay Tagg has been starting live horses at AQU. Don’t expect her to turn the tables on Genre, but should run a good one.
• 7 Bonnet Plume – no reason she should be 10-1 on the ML. Showed a little bit of tracking speed but not much finish. Should have gotten a lot out of the race and improvement is not unreasonable.

Race 7

• 5 Premium – Seems to prefer an easy pace at longer distances but does show a win at a mile. McLaughlin trainee showed a lot more speed with the addition of Lasix. She should be in the mix at the end.
• 8 Little Journey – three graded races in a row before dropping into an OC $62K and finishing a length and a half behind Premium. Chad Brown usually finds a way to place his horses right and get them to win.
• 1 Cloture – Broke her maiden in he eighth start but came back two after that to win her NW1X. Seems like McGaughey has her on the right track . One concern – her two wins were at a mile and a quarter. Still, with the right pace and the right ride she has a reasonable chance.
• 3 Tizallheart – 18 starts, one win, 7 seconds. Looks like a horse with a good chance of finishing in the money.

Race 8

• 7 Seal Team Four – won a race at a mile at CD in May where he was claimed by Tony Dutrow. He came back in a six furlong sprint three weeks ago but backed up in the stretch. Dutrow adds Lasix today and hopefully that keeps the horse from fading. He has plenty of speed and the last race should do him a world of good.
• 2 Spider Roll – listed as the 4-5 ML favorite after drubbing a state-bred MSW field on a muddy AQU track 12 days ago. The final time was not spectacular, but given the mucky track a better time can be expected today. Whether or not he’s worth odds on is something we’ll find out today.
• 4 Myrlanski – Horse hadn’t been seen since April 2012 when he showed up in a state-bred NW1X at seven furlongs on the turf a month ago. Scott Phillip is the trainer and his record is very poor, but the horse could improve enough to grab a minor piece.
• 3 Adams Note – broke his maiden in his second start and has been stuck at NW1X since. Seems to run evenly and makes his first start on the dirt since his debut race. Has the feel of a trainer looking for something to change the mojo. We’ll see if it works.

Race 9

• 2 Simple Love – Cuts her claiming price in half in search of a win. Has the best figures in the field and a nice pressing style. Clement is dynamite with sprint to route.
• 1 Wine Burglar – had a troubled start, winding up at the back of the pack, but made a furious move to get within a length of the leader, ultimately losing the race by two. Has been racing well for a while now and can improve today.
• 9 Chow Fun – beat a better field at BEL in June then threw in two mediocre races. Bruce Levine drops her substantially in claiming price in search of a win and she should be closing well in the stretch. Not without chances.
• 3 Lakeview Lady – is the speed of the race and is at the proper level. Exotic possibilities.

I’m assuming fast and firm today.

Race 1

• 1 Imposing Figure – Only one race at SAR where he battled up front early while wide and gradually weakened. Since that race the horse has changed hands to David Jacobson who has only given him one workout and that was two weeks ago. Still, Jacobson is magic with horses first time under his care and he really doesn’t have a tough field to beat here.
• 7 Ziggy Moondust – looks like the pacesetter in here. Ran into two off tracks in his last two races, and in his debut was on the turf, so we can’t be certain how he’ll handle a fast dirt. Still, has an impressive figure off the wet track races and will have to be caught.
• 4 Rock On Chacho – high percentage trainer at FL hasn’t had the same sort of success downstate. The FL works are good, although they don’t really show the trainer trying to inject some speed into the horse. Perhaps he’s prepping for something a little longer, but no reason to doubt he’ll be trying hard today.
• 2 Shinnecock Bay – eight starts and a couple of in the money finishes. Has shown speed on the turf and didn’t run badly on the fast dirt. Less up side than the top two, but not totally outless.

Race 2

• 8 Day Six – has the best figures, although he’s been racing longer distances. Has showed an inclination to run to the front and has good stretch courage. Probably had a very minor injury after the September 14 race, laid off three weeks and has had regular works over the last month. Not sure I like the drop from MSW, and the 5-2 ML odds are not particularly attractive, but it’s possible they are hungry for a win. Not a pushover field but he looks best.
• 4 Mambo At the Gym – had been running in MSW and dropped into a $62,500 claimer where he finished second behind behind next out winner Are We Not Men and a length in front of Dividend who also goes today. He went back to MSW on a good BEL turf and ran somewhat evenly. Two horses have already won out of that MCL and the drop to $40K should make a big difference.
• 7 Dividend – third behind the aforementioned 4 last out. In the race before that he was coming on the eventual winner Big Boss Man but missed by a nose. In that race he actually beat Are We Not Men by almost two lengths, but didn’t have the same luck on the good turf. Seems, then, to prefer the firmer turf and we can expect a top effort today.
• 3 Collinito only has three races. He won his second start at GP, but was DQ’d to second in what I could only describe as a marginal call. If the GP stewards were working at SA for the Breeder’s Cup Classic, no doubt they’d have DQ’d the top two. Collinito sprinted to a long early lead, and drifted slightly in the stretch, never making contact but “bothering” the second place horse. After the incident the second place horse started a rally and came within a neck of the victory, and I think that rally (not unexpected considering Collinito had been on fast fractions and had to be tiring) induced the stewards to assume he just might have lost a placing. Apparently the stewards at GP have a slightly clearer crystal ball than those at  SA, because I thought it could have been 50-50 chalked up to good race riding. In any case, after an 8 month layoff he didn’t get the front and ran pretty much evenly around the track. I know I put him in the fourth spot here, but he would be no surprise if he sprinted out on an AQU turf that has been very kind to front runners and won again.
• 3 Relentless Ride – let’s face it; a horse that finishes in the money 12 of 14 races seems like a high probability to finish in the money. Not expecting a win, but it would be hard to leave him out of the exotics.

Race 3

• 2 Glickman – Jacobson scratched him out of a spot where he had good win prospects last weekend to place him here. Glickman was a middling $20K claimer until Jacobson got a hold of him and turned him into a speedball. He looks like the front runner here and will have to be caught.
• 1 Cherokee Artist – is the other Jacobson horse and the one he owns. I know that racing rules allow horses with the same trainer but different owners to run uncoupled, but it seems a little funky when one of the horses is also owned by the trainer. In any case, he was top notch at some lesser tracks and didn’t run horribly at Saratoga. If he runs back to his earlier form he’s a strong contender.
• 5 Abra – the other speed horse; is 2 of 3 at AQU. Will have his hands full with Glickman and may set the race up for Cherokee Artist.

Race 4

• 6 Call Wil – should claim favoritism. Won in early October in a NW2L on a yielding BEL turf. Returned in an off the turf race on a sloppy track and didn’t run badly. Pressing style should give him a good striking spot.
• 11 George Cross – makes it in from the AE list. Five straight second place finishes and it looks like that might be the best he can hope for today.
• 9 Spirit of Peace – plenty of speed and held it for a win at MED in October. May be a little over his head here, but the AQU lawn has been kind to front runners so he has some outs.
• 1 Sonnyandpally – dropped down to beat a $25K NW2L field in September. Has a lot of starts for only two wins but does have his share of in the money finishes,

Race 5

• 4 Knockher Off – good speed and has a liking for the AQU dirt. Was on two wet tracks that were taken off the turf in his last two races and those were his first two in ten months. Didn’t run badly and Jimmy Jerkens decided to keep him on the dirt. Third off the layoff should be the best effort.
• 2 Big Guy Ian – Showed a lot of speed in the Amsterdam, came back in a NW1X and faded badly. Laid off two months and came back out in the mud and actually held as well as he had since he broke his maiden. Another where improvement should be expected.
• 1 Dyker Beach – 23 starts and 2 wins but 10 seconds. Lots of talent, just seems to hang. Useful in the exotics.
• 5 Billy the Bull – Came out in the slop and won at 15-1. Lots of speed, is good at the distance, and is ok on a fast track.

Race 6

• 5 Compliance Officer – in a tough, competitive race, Compliance Officer gets the nod. He is 2 of 4 on the AQU turf, and is good at the distance. He drops from OC $62K into this spot and has far and away the best figures. He has had some trouble finding the winners enclosure so there is always a little doubt, but he’ll be low odds and seems best.
• 10 Blue Pigeon – Nothing but in the money finishes in his last five, including a win on the yielding BEL turf last out. Probably not dropping significantly in price but fits with this group. Like the running style and Irad stays for Clement. Wouldn’t be a surprise.
• 2 Jonrah – In a move you don’t see too often Chad Brown claimed the horse last out for $40K and wheels him back in this OC $40K and offers him for the same price. I’m not sure what that means – is he just looking to grab a purse or is he signalling it wasn’t a great move to grab the horse? In any case the horse ran well in this class level last time and has some good figures in his past performance.
• 11 I Got Id – wondering what Imbriale does with this name. Will it be I-D or id? Horse has only 4 starts with two wins and a place. Nothing I like better than to find a three year old with prospects to improve. He may have some physical issues, but he’s had a nice set of works for this return and I’ll give him a reasonable chance to jump up.

Race 7

• 7 Little Gidding – had some good races at SAR and BEL during the summer but had trouble staying in front all the way to the wire at 6 1/2. Cut back to 6 furlongs on a good Laurel track with the same result. Drops in price for RuRod and gets Irad for the ride. Perhaps a bit chancy but has speed and fits the group.
• 4 Da Wildcat Girl – Two race win streak on the line. Grabbed by Scott Schwartz last time out for $25K and he drops her a level today. Has been consistent all year and should have no problem with the cut back to 6 furlongs.
• 6 Bridget Maloney – Has had some success at AQU and at the distance. A lot of races this year. Was claimed two back by Peter Chris and he got her to run second with $20K state-breds. Not without a chance.
• 3 Foxbeau – has been off since March for new trainer Gary Gullo. Comes down by half from his last claiming price. Is 1 for 1 on the AQU dirt and has two wins in five attempts  at the distance. Ran well in his debut start so perhaps she’ll come running today.

Race 8

• 1a Goodtolook – Contessa scratched Pretension to leave this one in despite Pretension looking like the stronger of the two. Has shown lots of speed at route distances since the claim and tries sprinting today. Gotta trust Contessa on this one.
• 2 Smokem’s Charm – ships in from FL for Charlton Baker. Works well in the morning upstate and has been with some of the better state-breds at FL. At 15-1 ML worth throwing in to the verticals and horizontals.
• 4 Writingonthewall – won two of his last three including a very nice win at today’s distance against a $25K starter allowance. One of four at AQU and won his only start at this distance. Michelle Nevin has kept a low profile at AQU but is 5 of 6 in the money. Should be a solid favorite and would be no surprise at all to find the winners enclosure.
• 5 Sol The Freud – Finished second off a two month layoff and comes back after another five weeks off. Has one uninspiring work for this one, but has the number and the running style to compete.

Race 9

• 7 Fulmer – Didn’t break well in his last, dropped all the way back and then started a long sustained run down the backstretch. Nobody was beating Kerjillion that day and Fulmer did well to get the place. Third place runner broke his maiden next time out. Very Dangerous with a good break.
• 10 No Texting – plenty of early speed but questionable heart in the stretch. Still, the track has played friendly to speed so that is in his favor. Has the figures to win here.
• 4 Gear Jammer – Looked  pretty good in his last two starts at a mile and adds blinkers today. Has a couple of nice workouts prepping for this.
• 8 Pronunciation – first two finishers came from well off the pace. Bumped at the start and had to work hard to get a spot. Stayed wide throughout and really wasn’t likely sustain to given the early trouble and position. Can improve enough to outpace the field here.
• 6 Mark My Style – ran poorly on the slop but in his prior race ran a good one in the same race Gear Jammer finished 3rd. He was only half a length behind that one and should be double Gear Jammer’s odds. I’ll probably use him in my pick 3/4.

A few really poor fields, but a couple of competitive races.

Race 1

This race is one of the poor ones. I want to comment about the 1 Eva Lil. She has started 34 times, has two third place finishes and $17K in winnings. That means she averages $500 per start. There is no reason this horse should be allowed to race, especially at one of the big NY tracks.

• 7 Hot On Ice – was on two gooey tracks in a row and the turf the race before that. She’s run consistent figures at this level and does have a good turn of early speed. I like that she was able to hold off all horses except the winner last race. Should be volleying up front and just needs to show a little more courage in the stretch to nail this one.
• 2 Alice and Trixie – even money ML favorite. Hasn’t been out since April but has a steady series of works for the return, including two bullets. Was racing against slightly better competition and has experience on this track. If she comes out in shape she might dominate this field.
• 3 Built in a Day – only has three lifetime starts which keeps her out of the potential professional maiden category. Her last two starts were on off tracks, and I liked that she showed a little interest on the BEL slop. Hard to make a case for any other runner in this field.

Race 2

• 5 Hundred Percent – ran well in the mud last out. A little concerning he hasn’t been on the turf but he shouldn’t have any problem with the distance despite backing up at the sprint distance. If Cornelio gets him to relax he should be able to better distribute the speed.
• 1 Intelligence – first timer for Bill Mott and usually this means the horse doesn’t have much of a shot. In this field a lot of the starters have not shown much, so despite the Mott record, this could be the one that is the exception to the rule.
• 8 Thrown of My Own – showed a tiny bit in his debut on the turf and showed a bit more on the slop when the race came off the turf. Low profile connections don’t help but in a field where not many starters have shown anything, these are good credentials.
• 7J C’s Not Brown – goes for Kimmel who’s pretty good with first timers and two year olds. Decent set of works for the debut and would be no surprise in front at the wire.

Race 3

• 2 Furyofthenorsemen – wild ride in the slop first time out so the not-too-close third is forgivable. Far and away the top figure of the horses that have started. Steve Klesaris has quietly had a good year. Arroyo rode him last time, so there is some familiarity with the horse.
• 5 American Soldier – hunch plays don’t get any better than a horse with that name on Veterans Day. Tony Dutrow is fair with first timers and two year olds. The works at Fair Hill have been ok, nothing spectacular, but that seems to be Dutrow’s style. The capable Irad Ortiz gets the mount.
• 6 Madroos – Love the breeding (Indian Charlie and a Malibu Moon mare). Kieran is pretty good with firsters and two year olds. Nice set of works for the debut. The improving Manny Franco gets the ride.
• 1 Saratoga Wildcat – apparently didn’t care for the slop and really never got into his debut race. Has the rail and should improve today.

Race 4

• 2 Gabby’s Brown – ran a good second in her debut race despite having to move between foes.. Rudy Rodriguez trains and Manny Franco stays to ride. Not likely to get any odds but looks best.
• 1 Ferzetti – started her career in DEL with two close seconds. Stepped up to BEL and had a troubled trip first time in NY. Still, she finished fourth in that race. Has plenty of experience and adds Lasix today.
• 7 Samus – Claimed for $40K by Contessa only 12 days ago and wheels right back. Troubled start didn’t help, rushed up some and didn’t fade badly. Expect some improvement today.
• 6 Birkenhead – another one that had trouble last out. Picks up Johnny V today. Looks good enough to catch a part.

Race 5

• 7 Grand Rapport – been generally going longer but is 3 of 4 at today’s distance. Was ambitiously placed in the Bowling Game and still ran respectably. Cornelio has consistently ridden the horse and knows him well. Does nothing but finish first or second.
• 2 Media Kid – only one start at this distance but looks like the best of the horses with early foot. You have to worry about him getting an easy lead and running off with the race. Another that is consistent about being in the money. Seems to flourish when the turf is a little softer, and has run well even with a closer’s bias.
• 1 Treasury Devil – just won at a mile last out for Rudy Rodriguez. Johnny V stays for the ride. The turf should be firm today and that is Treasury Devil’s preferred condition. Two good maintenance works since last should keep him on edge.
• 9 Best Actor – veteran runner fits at this class level. Has struggled to find the winner’s enclosure lately, but has a penchant for finishing in the money.

Race 6

• 7 Socialsaul – 2 of 4 over the AQU dirt. Claimed by Jacobson two back and all he’s done is get the horse to reel off two in a row. Keeps him at the same price level. Consistent figures.
• 6 Volastic – claimed last out by Chris Englehart. Hasn’t been as hot as he was earlier but is still a first rate claiming trainer. Fairly consistent figures – gave Socialsaul all he could handle last time.
• 2 Zoebear – claimed in last two races, last time by Abby Adsit. Seems to have some trouble pushing all the way to the wire, but Adsit has been doing well improving horses after a claim. A couple of nice breezes for this start. May be the pacesetter in this race.
• 5 Reggie D – Not likely a winner, but last time he was at this level just missed. Useful in the back holes.

Race 7

• 8 Blacktype – rode the rail on a soft turf last out, and when they hit the stretch he had nowhere to go. Had to bide his time, finally found a clear lane and closed with interest. Has been consistent this year and should improve in his second start with Lasix. Gets a rider switch to Irad Ortiz. 3-1 ML would be good if he stayed there at post time.
• 10 Which Market – bumps up a little in distance but is 3 of 7 going the 1 1/16. Good figures and fits in this group.
• 6 Ocala Jim – has been superb on the lawn all year. Only bad defeat was against the top state-bred turfers in the Mohawk. Would be no surprise here.
• 1 Iron Power – been backing up a little against NW1X on the turf. Won last out on a sloppy track. Has the best early foot in the race and will look to carry his speed all the way. Switches riders to the other Ortiz.

Race 8

• 8 North Ocean – two consecutive races on a sloppy track. He appears to prefer a firmer track. 2 of 6 at the distance and a second in two tries at AQU. Been very popular at the claim box and currently is in the Linda Rice barn. Will head to the front and if he runs back to some of his earlier races he’ll be tough to catch.
• 7 Regulus – 2 for 2 at the mile. Has a nice pressing style and competitive figures. Actually dropping a bit in price today.
• 5 Springcourt – Contessa has been busy at the claiming box and after grabbing this one last out wheels him back for the same price.  Another one with a good record at the distance and at AQU.
• 6 Chairman Now – front running sort just missed against Springcourt last out. Bullet work on 10/30 confirms he’s going to the front and will have to be caught.

Race 9

• 8 Barbara’s Smile – horse has been disappointing since claim by Sciacca in July. But, with only 8 starts she has the right to improve. Finished behind a couple of the professional NW2L horses last out but puts blinkers on and hopefully that will be enough to get her to the winner’s enclosure.
• 4 Flirtacious Spring – 21 starts, one win but a bunch of seconds and thirds. Competitive just not good about leading at the wire.
• 9 My Four Rewards – another that struggles to win races. Good prospect for a back hole.
• 5 It’s Your Dime – Just broke her maiden after 11 tries. Has a lot of early speed and will try to use it all the way to the wire.

This is an extremely competitive day. Getting some of the races down to four horses was difficult. Lots of turf horses moving onto the dirt for the winter season, and many don’t have any dirt form. Good luck to everyone today.

Race 1

• 7 Opener – was wide moving on to the backstretch in a turf race and was bumped hard entering the backstretch. Stayed wide throughout, looked a little anxious when she tugged Luzzi into third, but ran out of energy around the far turn. Drops from $50K to $20 K today and changes jockeys to Dylan Davis. Steve Jerkens gave her two recent workouts, nothing special but she should be ready to roll today. She’s a Rock Hard filly so she should be fine with the dirt switch.
• 1 Bay Dawn – has done her best running at FL where she nearly broke her maiden. Her last was on the turf and she’s shown no affinity for the lawn in two starts. Given the weak field, she’s got plenty of outs.
• 3 Bay Road – Been on a break since May 2013 and trainer Randi Persaud is 0 for 14 with long layoff horses. Still she had better figures as a 3 year old than any other horse in the race and has a decent dirt pedigree. If she is over her obvious physical issues she could be the winner.
• 6 Tenacious Indeed hasn’t yet been on the dirt although her best turf races have figures that would be competitive in this field. Perhaps the X factor in this race.
• I’m honestly having trouble throwing anyone else in the win mix. Our Favorite Place showed a tiny bit of talent on the MED lawn at five furlongs but only has two really poor dirt races. You Take the Cake is a 23 start maiden but does have five seconds, so she might be useful in combination bests. That’s No Limit is an 11 start maiden with a recent string of poor races. Too Many Pockets hasn’t been closer than 19 lengths in four lifetime starts. This is a poor field and I’d caution investing at your own risk.

Race 2

• 1 Seeking – second start for Mott who doesn’t have much of a reputation with first timers. She broke second last and closed steadily through out the race despite a dawdling pace. Had a useful work 6 days ago. Regular rider Alvarado is up.
• 4 Accord – goes for Leah Gyamati. Unlucky to have both her first two races wash off the turf and being a Lemon Drop Kid the turf and the distance should be to her liking. Steady works since her last.
• 8 Trensita – ran a good second at this distance on the BEL turf. Comes back with a steady series of works at Fair Hill. Doesn’t have to improve much to be in the mix.
• 10 Lismore – ran second in a 7 furlong sprint and adds Lasix today. Worked a bullet five days ago and Cornelio stays.
• Lots of other interesting horses to look at. Cover Up has three decent dirt starts and tries the turf for the first time. Violinist is a first timer for Todd Pletcher and how often does one of his horses get listed at 12-1 ML. Tiz Jeweled went in a race that washed off the turf and with Clement training she could make a big improvement on the green. Bishops Pond is a first timer for Chad Brown and he is something of a genius with 2 year old turf fillies. She might be one to throw in just because of the connections. Finally, any of the three also eligibles would have to be considered if they drew in.

Race 3

• 5 Ridingwiththedevil – winner last out for Abby Adsit and hasn’t run a really bad one in a while. Seemed to be developing some seconditis but after she was claimed, Adsit put fronts and blinkers on and the horse ran away from a MSW field in a good time. Should enjoy the cutback to six furlongs.
• 3 Wraith – 6-5 ML favorite has thrown four second place finishes in a row and that is not really positive. But has been at the class level and has the figures to compete.
• 1 Vision of Mine – last at Parx is a little hidden – she was only a length and a half out at the six furlong call. Puts the blinkers on and that may focus her enough to be in the picture.

Race 4

• 2 Blue Collar Cat – was running fairly well in MSW last year. Laid off a full year and came out at six and a half at BEL where he ran well after being slightly bumped at the break. Definitely needed the race and given his front running style she should be able to get a good initial position. Encouraging sign that Johnny V stays.
• 5 Blue Shark – only one race on a fast dirt track and that was a decent effort, but he is dropping from MSW and that should be a big help. Should be tracking and we’ll see if he has the stamina to get by everyone.
• 4 Fictional Character – one race on a fast dirt and he just missed. That has to be enough to put him in the contender category.
• 6 Greg’s Fourwheeler – Dropping from MSW and has been ok on the dirt. Improved out of the gate last time when he put the shades on and that race can be excused because the track was soupy. Ran evenly at a mile and might be the value play.

Race 5

Frustratingly now off the turf. Of the MTO’s, 15 Nonnie Connie is 2 for 22 and may catch a piece but I just can’t back horses with that kind of percentage with any enthusiasm.

• 8 Bella Kateri – had been knocking on the door before she won her maiden drawing away. Like the pressing style and the nice series of works after two months rest.
• 3 Thatza Wrap – has run decently on the yielding turf. Don’t necessarily like that this is her fifth try at the NW1X level but she has run consistent figures and is good enough on her best to get a piece.
• 6 Lady Kreesa – has not really run a bad one in a seven race career., including two races in the NY Stallion Series. Another with consistently competitive figures. Should thrive at the mile.
• 4 Swear by It – one start, one win. Came from way back in that one and was very wide into the stretch. Has two decent works at Fair Hill for her return. 

Race 6

• 4 Saint Joseph – Clunked in his debut race but came back to lose by only one and a quarter lengths to a strong Regal Minister. He had to fight that one all the way around the track and perhaps he won’t have it quite so hot on the front end today.
• 3 Got Winged – moved from the turf for his second race and only lost by half a length to the aforementioned Regal Minister. Gets a switch to Lezcano from Rice and that is a positive. Should like the 7 furlong distance.
• 1 Copernicus – had a troubled beginning in the same MSW race but Johnny V stays and that is a good sign. Gets first time Lasix. We’ll give him one more chance to see what he can do with a clean start.
• 7 Mr Harlan – puts the blinkers on after running a middling race in the Regal Minister heat. Worked a bullet 10 days ago and have to expect some improvement today.

Race 7

• 9 North Star Boy – has been fairly consistent this year, and only lost to champion Wise Dan by two and a half in the Baruch. Fits the field, fits the distance and has a win on the AQU turf.
• 2 Sky Blazer – has been running longer distances but is 3 for 7 at the mile and a sixteenth. Only one win this year, and that was a while ago at GP. Was another not too far in back of Wise Dan in the Baruch and the race before that he missed less than a length in the Bowling Green. Good enough to compete in this field.
• 1a Tetradrachm – Claimed by Jacobson last out but before that had been running mainly in graded races. Looking for his first win of the year, and Jacobson is just lights out with 1st off the claim.
• 8 Mutin – comes to America and gets Lasix for Kieran McLaughlin who is 3 for 5 with first time Euro shippers. He hasn’t run particularly fast in Europe and hasn’t threatened in a group race, but a return to the turf from the synthethic track in Dubai should help. Has been working steadily since September so should be fully acclimated.

Race 8

• 7 Frivolity – clearly didn’t care for the sloppy BEL track where she wanted to stay wide and clear of mud being kicked in her face. She pulled up quickly once the race was over. I think you put a line through that race.  Jacobson claimed her out of that race, laid her off six months and decided to start her today. Jacobson claiming a horse has been powerful and off her best she’s competitive here.
• 2 Misszippityslewda – Plenty of tactical speed but perhaps a little less heart in the stretch than I’d prefer. Is dropping in price so that could make the difference between hanging on and getting caught. Does have a place and show at the distance.
• 4 Swakopmund takes a drop for Gary Contessa. He claimed the horse two back and put her on the turf in $50K claimers. She’s back at 7 furlongs on the dirt and given her closing style could be the major beneficiary of a pace duel.
• 3 Guyana – romped for $20K last time and returns at the same distance today. Jumps up a bit in price and may have to duel with the 2 up front, but should be fair odds.

Race 9

• 9 Loveisheartandsoul – this is a very competitive affair, so we’ll go with the horse with the best figures. He finished second on the good turf at a mile at BEL and was claimed by Jeremiah Englehart. He’s got a win in two starts on the AQU turf, is lightly raced and has a nice pressing style.
• 5 Bigger Picture – had been running on dirt and synthetic exclusively with 3 year olds until Linda Rice claimed him and started him on the yielding BEL turf. He closed by the field to nail the victory and basically stays at the same price except now it’s NW3. If he really prefers the turf he’s a factor here
• 11 Honor the Kitten – has been running competitively around this level. Struggled to find the winner’s circle until Jimmy Klesaris took him SAR in July. Since then he has a win and a second. Looks very possible today.
• 3 Permanent Campaign – has run well in 2014, winning his last for Richard Violette. He beat 11 others that day, and although it was at a slightly lower price and condition he fits well with this group. Not a need to lead sort, so should be in a comfortable tracking spot.

• Still waiting for the form to settle and the track to dry out. It’s been an interesting couple of days. Speed has generally not done well – in fact the winning move seems to be staying wide through the stretch. There have been races with lots of speed where only one horse has gone out and races where a horse you wouldn’t expect has wired a field. My strategy will be to not ignore the top trainers, no matter how their horses look, and to look for the fastest horse in the race, After coming off the sandy Belmont surface horses have to adjust to the new course and hopefully we’ll start having more success in the coming weeks,

Race 1

• 4 Artemus Paperboy – Jacobson runner has been running  well since breaking his maiden on the BEL mud. If the outside move is still working, I look for him to be in a good striking position heading for home and his figures are good enough to get the win here.
• 7 Patty and Nooche – claimed two back by Asaf Ronen. He’s a stone closer in a race that isn’t likely to produce a lot of pace. If Cornelio puts him in the right spot he’s got plenty of outs.
• 2 Harley – in 27 starts he’s got 6 seconds and seven thirds to go along with his single win, That makes him a higher probability to finish in the money than win the race.
• 3 Maximus Mike – claimed last out by Gary Gullo who gave him a seven week rest. He started out in the Bill Mott barn at AQU where he broke his maiden going a mile and an eighth over a muddy track. He was claimed at SAR in August by Scott Schwartz and was taken next out by Gullo. I’m thinking this may be more of a prep for something longer, but he’s actually nicely bred for the distance.

Race 2

Is now off the turf. Of the original turf selections, only the 10 was scratched. However the MTO’s 14, 15 and 16 are now in the race. 14 Osie is a Pletcher first time starter by Awesome Again with a very strong wet track rating. He would be a must-use in the verticals and horizontals. 15 Fowler Avenue has two mediocre races on the turf and takes the blinkers off today. He may improve on the dirt but I’m going to have to see something before backing him. Despite the monster wet track rating for 16 Kick Off he totally flopped on a sloppy track last out. He’s another that is going to have to show something before getting any money. Of the horses that stayed in, 2 Mandolin Wins had been on the dirt twice, finishing three lengths behind King of New York. He moves up on the dirt. 5 Wild Dynaformer showed good speed on a fast BEL track last out and really didn’t lose lengths in the stretch. I’d add him to the contenders list.

• 12 King of New York – three seconds and a third in four starts is encouraging on the one hand, but perhaps concerning on the other. He adds blinkers today and that may be enough to get him past the whole field.
• 1 Made in Detroit – been working up a storm at AQU for Richard Violette. Ran evenly on the BEL lawn first out and should be better for having had the experience. At 12-1 ML he could make the picks.
• 11 Ebreeq – purchased for $270K as a yearling. Came out on the BEL turf and set the pace for close to six furlongs in a pretty fair time. Steady works since then for the comback. Dangerous if he can carry his speed.
• 3 Path Dependent – two races on the turf and should benefit from the experience. Last race he broke on top from the far outside and pressed hard for half the race, fading a bit in the stretch. Mark Hennig started to pick up toward the end of the BEL season.

Race 3

• 2 Rap d’Oro – 2 for 3 at AQU and has 3 wins, 3 places in 11 starts this year. Ran Evenly at a mile on a fast track last out, but the three before that were in the goo. Should appreciate the mile distance. Drops a bit in price and that could put him over the top. May have to work to get a good spot from the rail and get clear in the stretch where he does his best running.
• 1/1a My Adonis/Socialsaul – one of them will get scratched since Cornelio is named on both. My Adonis is dropping in price but hasn’t yet had luck at AQU. Socialsaul has two wins in a row and Jacobson jumps him up a level looking for three. Gotta trust Jacobson to leave the best of the two in the race,
• 7 Bedouin Now – Clunker in the slop last out at $30K, although ran a decent race in the mud time before that. Just missed on a fast SAR track at essentially this level three back. Lots of starts this year but still seems to have some fuel left in the tank.
• 4 Little Jimmy – shows plenty of speed and should get the front here. Has not been racing at the A tracks but probably fits at this level. Might not look back if the track is friendly to speed.

Race 4

• 1/1a Bemata /Glickman – Jacobson claimed Bemata for $25K seven weeks ago and wheels him back at the same price. Winner in his last repeated so perhaps that was a strong heat. Glickman is the stronger of the two and the last time he was this low in price he wired the field. Has had a pretty successful 2014 and definitely is the reason the entry is 2-1 on the ML.
• 7 Storm Pursuit – Was claimed last out by Mike Miceli and comes back at the same price. Beat Bemata in his last. Ran most of his career on the turf but seems to have found new life running on the dirt. Plenty of speed but doesn’t seem to be a need to lead type. Strong contender.
• 5 Joe Mooch – has run well in 2014 and was claimed last out by Gary Contessa. He’s only 10% first off the claim but Mooch seems to run well no matter who is conditioning. He is moving from the state-breds to open company but has some pretty good figures and no reason why he can’t be competitive here.
• 8 The Big Deluxe – ran dead last last out but prior to that was running well. Has plenty of speed but will have to deal with Glickman on the front end.

Race 5

• 9 Hope Cross – Broke her maiden at this distance at SAR and then came back to run second on a yielding turf in an 11 horse field. Switches from Castellano to Bravo and that isn’t a positive, but the horse looks strong enough to compensate.
• 5 Sky Painter – Ran nowhere in the 2013BC Juvenile Fillies Turf and laid off until August where she ran second in an ALW race. She came back at BEL and showed a good close. It’s a little concerning that in two starts she hasn’t reached last year’s figure, but she seems to have a lot of talent. Some concern about her style winning at AQU, but if you look at the race two back she pressed the pace and still showed a little close.
• 4 Miss Atomic Bomb – well suited for the mile based on Euro experience. Immediately adds lasix. May not make it to BEL given she’s cross entered in a Laurel race. Looking for a spot and if she goes here you can’t cross her out.
• 6 Morning Star – Showed her speed lately and especially after the claim by Serpe. Jumps up in class today and needs to rise to the occasion if she expects to win.

Race 6

• 10 Partytime Chill – was scheduled to try the turf first time out but that race was washed off and she wound up trying the mud at BEL. She didn’t run badly, pressing the pace for half a mile and ultimately holding on to third. She stays on the dirt today and Dutrow is 28% with second out maidens.
• 8 Movie Starlet – ships in from Laurel where she finished third in a six furlong maiden. Got a good figure from this race despite running wide most of the way around. Is listed at 10-1 on the ML and should be good value at post time.
• 2 Dream On – adds the blinkers for Carlos Martin who is 18% with second start maidens. Broke slowly in the debut but has a series of good works including a speedy last work out of the gate. Puts the blinkers on today and big improvement would be no surprise.
• 3 Golden Gem – First timer for Violette who is 13% with debut maidens. Good series of works for this one.

Race 7

• 1 Aigue Marine – been consistently racing in Grade 3’s this year, winning one and finishing second in two. Irad Ortiz leaves this one for the 5 horse, but he picks up Johnny V and that’s not so bad. Very nice series of turf works for Clement. Has run well on softer turf at AQU previously.
• 5 Danza Cavallo – first start in the U.S. for Chad Brown and he is 27% with first time Euro shippers. Has been running well all year, mostly at the long distances on softer turf. She’s been here for at least a month and a half and has been working regularly so should be ready to go.
• 2 Viva Rafaela – Pletcher trainee is another that has been knocking around with graded players but hasn’t been able to crack the winner’s circle. Doesn’t get Javier or Johhny V so will take his chances with Bravo who did ride the horse to a third place in the grade 2 New Yotk. Regular maintenance works for the horse. Given her tendency to be heartless in the stretch we’ll have to look for value odds.
• 6 Hellenistic – Racing well at the B Irish tracks but doesn’t show any group races. Still, she’s that most dangerous of horses, the rapidly improving three year-old. Would have liked to have seen some works, so she may lack a bit of stay in the stretch. Perhaps the good Irish trainer Dermott Weld wanted to hang out in the states and see if she improves on Lasix.

Race 8

• 3 Official – seems good on either turf or dirt. Started her career on the dirt, moved to the turf and has been close but no wins in her three turf starts. She did get a win in an off the turfer at BEL in July. The Jacobson trainee looks like she has been well handled this year, and after a summer vacation of three months she came back to run a nice race on the BEL turf. This is the second back off the short layoff and we’re expecting a good one.
• 8 Clean Eleven – Chad Brown trainee is running third off a 15 month layoff. It’s concerning she hasn’t been able to top her maiden winning figure, but Brown does bring her back in a little over two weeks which indicates she make have overcome whatever problems put her on the shelf. Dangerous trainer/jock combo.
• 1 Touching My Toes – hard to gauge just how good the horse is. Was pulled up and walked off at SAR in July. Linda Rice considers herself effective with horses that have physical problems, so I I have no doubt the horse will be able to run. Still, she hasn’t seen anything approaching a fast main track since last November at AQU, and she ran a poor one that day. A bit of a chancey horse, and certainly not inspiring at 7-2, but a contender in this field.
• 6 Jcs American Dream – thoroughbred with a quarter horse sounding name. Only 1 for 15 lifetime, and a tendency to close but fall short. Beat Kelly’s Prize in her last, and that’s enough to give her the nod as the last contender.

Race 9

16 Roman Reign is the MTO that draws in in this off the turf affair. Took the long way home last out but closed courageously to finish a close second. Peter Pugh is a sneaky 20% with limited starters this year and she is definitely a contender.

• 4 Lutheran Miss – almost held off Miss Motivation in her last, and was over six lengths ahead of the third place horse. Has a second on the fast dirt and a third on a wet track, so she’s not limited to the turf.
• 1 Traipse in Utopia – has a couple of dirt starts at AQU before shifting to the turf. Finally dropped into MCL last out and stays at the level today. We’ll know how the track is playing by this race, and whether staying on the rail compromises her chances.
• 12 Senso – is trained by David Jacobson. Was not much on the dirt first three of her career, and improved markedly on the turf, but given the trainer, she’s worth adding in the mix.
• 8 Confessa – is somewhat hidden for Danny Gargan. She finished second in a $40K MCL and then went on the turf in a straight MSW and then in a dirt MSW. She’s back with the claiming folk today and could be a surprise.

I quipped today (with no reaction) that it was gloomy at Aqueduct – and the weather wasn’t so good either. I’m planning on the turf races being moved to the main, but we’ll find out in the morning.

Race 1

• 7 False Positive – raced a week ago at 6 1/2 furlongs and at today’s level. He seems to be more at home on the AQU dirt and the addition of blinkers last time got him to focus a little more. Of the horses with experience, he might be the best.
• 1 Back Scatter – started off on the BEL turf and then shipped down to Laurel where he managed a good 4th place finish. He’s back in NY and  although the price looks a little higher, given the difference in circuits and the move to state-breds, he might actually be taking a drop in class. Good outs today.
• 3 Fit to Keep – never got into his debut start but seems to be working usefully in the morning. Went off 3-2 first out so somebody thought he was a runner. Fairly good wet track rating. Has to beat the horse who beat him last out.
• 4 Doctor Red – dropping from MSW on the turf to this dirt affair. Adds blinkers and Lasix. All those changes might be the tonic he needs to hit the top today.

Race 2

• 1 Stage Name – claimed last out by R N Falcone, a 4 for 31 trainer who decided to try him back on the dirt. He has an 11 length win at AQU on a good track. Been a little suspect in the stretch but does have a quick workout nine days ago and perhaps the price drop keeps her in front all the way. Irad aboard doesn’t hurt his chances.
• 4 Over My Head – 10 starts this year and zero wins but her one win did come on a wet track. She isn’t likely to catch a field this weak very often so this is probably her best shot at a win.
• 7 Golden Cheetah – has a second on a wet track, although the 1 for 21 record is not very inspiring. Another one that might benefit from the weak field,
• 2 Lady Halite – has plenty of early foot and a third in two tries on a wet track. Hasn’t had a lot of success at the NY “A” tracks but you have to respect Englehart.

Race 3

• 6 Abide in Me – Took 10 starts to break her maiden but ran reasonably well against winners on a sloppy track, Listed at 4-5 on the ML and while she looks pretty good in here, odds-on might be a little optimistic. Still, she has far and away the top figures.
• 4 Lady Rhubarb – flopped on the SAR turf but was much better on the AQU dirt. A little faint hearted in the stretch, and will have to concern herself with the speed to her inside, Has two thirds in two tries at AQU and one third in one try on the wet track.
• 3 Player to Be Named – best speed in the race and only five lifetime starts. Remains to be seen if she takes to AQU and a moist track.

Race 4

• 1a Melville – had a horror trip last out and was flattered when Wake Up and Go strongly beat a field Wednesday. May not stay in the race if it is moved off the turf but is a huge danger if it stays.
• 9 Sassicaia – one of the MTO’s. Fourth of six in the Tesio and ran a good one last out at Parx. If the race goes on the dirt he’s the one to beat.
• 11 Jazz Player – another of the MTO’s. Ran well on a muddy BEL track and has a quick work inbetween. Takes the blinkers off today. Can’t leave him out of the picks.
• 5 Something Awesome – first timer for Sherriffs gets Johnny V. Good wet track number and the most interesting of the firsters.

Race 5

• 2 St Moose – two wins and two seconds in five tries on a wet track. Has some nice tactical speed and is 4 of 7 at the distance. Claimed two back – in fact in his last five he’s been claimed four times. Has a quick workout nine days ago. Lots of positives.
• 6 Spa City Fever – hard-knocking 8 year-old has been good at the distance and on a wet track. Perhaps a little heartless in the stretch, but still has competitive numbers and David Jacobson training. Was only 3/4 length behind top pick St. Moose last out.
• 3 Percussion – been off since May but has had distance, wet track and AQU success in the past. Has graded race experience and the always helpful services of Todd Pletcher. Perhaps a little over-enthusiastic at a 2-1 ML but still a contender.
• 7 Tenango – 60% of his wins have been on a wet track and he has two seconds in two tries at AQU. Primarily a sprinter. Jacobson/Cornelio a 25% combo.

Race 6

• 1a Royal Posse – a win and a second in four starts on the wet track. Plenty of speed and good figures lately.
• 12 This Hard Land – ten races on the wet track with two wins. Has recently been with better and has a win over the AQU dirt.
• 7 Testosterstone – won this April in an off the turf affair at AQU. Laid off until October when he ran a 7 furlong race on the turf at BEL. He showed some early interest but didn’t have the condition to finish. He’s much better as a dirt horse and although he won’t be 30-1 he might be a good enough price to back.

Race 7

• 3 Bernie the Maestro – 8 of 10 in the money on a wet track. Tracked in his last race and couldn’t get to the front, but still has a nice figure. Pretty much the same price level and in good condition so he has to be given serious consideration.
• 6 Santa Elf – two wet track races and two strong wins. Has been primarily in ALW NW1X races and drops to the level at which Bruce Brown took him. Good figures and should be rolling in the stretch.
• 8 Herbal Prospector – claimed last out by Dutrow. Has plenty of early speed and is five of seven in the money on a wet track.
• 2b For Love of Lil – Contessa runner is 6-2-2-2 on the wet track. More of a closing style and that was winning on Thursday. Hasn’t been this distance but should adapt to it. Didn’t like the turf last out and didn’t adapt well to the mile and a quarter time before that. A little hidden but definitely a contender.

Race 8

• It’s now a five horse race and MTO Groomedforvictory is listed as 4-5 on the ML. Modern Child is the other MTO. Given the uninspiring nature of the runners in this race, he will be lucky to go off that high. No insight here beyond the two MTO’s.

Race 9

• 4 Kisses for Romeo – went off at 5-2 in her five furlong debut at SAR and ran a good learning race. Has had a steady series of workouts for her return and should improve today.
• 1/1a Midnight Citra/Theophilia – since Alvarado is named on both one will scratch. Mott runners always need a race or two and both of these have experience. Midnight Citra may be the better of the two at a sprint distance.
• 2 All too Many – first timer for Pletcher has been working steadily if not remarkably for debut. Paid 15 times the stud price so we can expect some talent.
• 7 Loaded for Bear – Ships in from Woodbine for Jacobson who is 27% with horses debuting in his stable. Ran second in a Canadian-bred sprint in a fair time. Given the trainer it’s not unreasonable to expect an improvement.