I’m assuming fast and firm today.

Race 1

• 1 Imposing Figure – Only one race at SAR where he battled up front early while wide and gradually weakened. Since that race the horse has changed hands to David Jacobson who has only given him one workout and that was two weeks ago. Still, Jacobson is magic with horses first time under his care and he really doesn’t have a tough field to beat here.
• 7 Ziggy Moondust – looks like the pacesetter in here. Ran into two off tracks in his last two races, and in his debut was on the turf, so we can’t be certain how he’ll handle a fast dirt. Still, has an impressive figure off the wet track races and will have to be caught.
• 4 Rock On Chacho – high percentage trainer at FL hasn’t had the same sort of success downstate. The FL works are good, although they don’t really show the trainer trying to inject some speed into the horse. Perhaps he’s prepping for something a little longer, but no reason to doubt he’ll be trying hard today.
• 2 Shinnecock Bay – eight starts and a couple of in the money finishes. Has shown speed on the turf and didn’t run badly on the fast dirt. Less up side than the top two, but not totally outless.

Race 2

• 8 Day Six – has the best figures, although he’s been racing longer distances. Has showed an inclination to run to the front and has good stretch courage. Probably had a very minor injury after the September 14 race, laid off three weeks and has had regular works over the last month. Not sure I like the drop from MSW, and the 5-2 ML odds are not particularly attractive, but it’s possible they are hungry for a win. Not a pushover field but he looks best.
• 4 Mambo At the Gym – had been running in MSW and dropped into a $62,500 claimer where he finished second behind behind next out winner Are We Not Men and a length in front of Dividend who also goes today. He went back to MSW on a good BEL turf and ran somewhat evenly. Two horses have already won out of that MCL and the drop to $40K should make a big difference.
• 7 Dividend – third behind the aforementioned 4 last out. In the race before that he was coming on the eventual winner Big Boss Man but missed by a nose. In that race he actually beat Are We Not Men by almost two lengths, but didn’t have the same luck on the good turf. Seems, then, to prefer the firmer turf and we can expect a top effort today.
• 3 Collinito only has three races. He won his second start at GP, but was DQ’d to second in what I could only describe as a marginal call. If the GP stewards were working at SA for the Breeder’s Cup Classic, no doubt they’d have DQ’d the top two. Collinito sprinted to a long early lead, and drifted slightly in the stretch, never making contact but “bothering” the second place horse. After the incident the second place horse started a rally and came within a neck of the victory, and I think that rally (not unexpected considering Collinito had been on fast fractions and had to be tiring) induced the stewards to assume he just might have lost a placing. Apparently the stewards at GP have a slightly clearer crystal ball than those at  SA, because I thought it could have been 50-50 chalked up to good race riding. In any case, after an 8 month layoff he didn’t get the front and ran pretty much evenly around the track. I know I put him in the fourth spot here, but he would be no surprise if he sprinted out on an AQU turf that has been very kind to front runners and won again.
• 3 Relentless Ride – let’s face it; a horse that finishes in the money 12 of 14 races seems like a high probability to finish in the money. Not expecting a win, but it would be hard to leave him out of the exotics.

Race 3

• 2 Glickman – Jacobson scratched him out of a spot where he had good win prospects last weekend to place him here. Glickman was a middling $20K claimer until Jacobson got a hold of him and turned him into a speedball. He looks like the front runner here and will have to be caught.
• 1 Cherokee Artist – is the other Jacobson horse and the one he owns. I know that racing rules allow horses with the same trainer but different owners to run uncoupled, but it seems a little funky when one of the horses is also owned by the trainer. In any case, he was top notch at some lesser tracks and didn’t run horribly at Saratoga. If he runs back to his earlier form he’s a strong contender.
• 5 Abra – the other speed horse; is 2 of 3 at AQU. Will have his hands full with Glickman and may set the race up for Cherokee Artist.

Race 4

• 6 Call Wil – should claim favoritism. Won in early October in a NW2L on a yielding BEL turf. Returned in an off the turf race on a sloppy track and didn’t run badly. Pressing style should give him a good striking spot.
• 11 George Cross – makes it in from the AE list. Five straight second place finishes and it looks like that might be the best he can hope for today.
• 9 Spirit of Peace – plenty of speed and held it for a win at MED in October. May be a little over his head here, but the AQU lawn has been kind to front runners so he has some outs.
• 1 Sonnyandpally – dropped down to beat a $25K NW2L field in September. Has a lot of starts for only two wins but does have his share of in the money finishes,

Race 5

• 4 Knockher Off – good speed and has a liking for the AQU dirt. Was on two wet tracks that were taken off the turf in his last two races and those were his first two in ten months. Didn’t run badly and Jimmy Jerkens decided to keep him on the dirt. Third off the layoff should be the best effort.
• 2 Big Guy Ian – Showed a lot of speed in the Amsterdam, came back in a NW1X and faded badly. Laid off two months and came back out in the mud and actually held as well as he had since he broke his maiden. Another where improvement should be expected.
• 1 Dyker Beach – 23 starts and 2 wins but 10 seconds. Lots of talent, just seems to hang. Useful in the exotics.
• 5 Billy the Bull – Came out in the slop and won at 15-1. Lots of speed, is good at the distance, and is ok on a fast track.

Race 6

• 5 Compliance Officer – in a tough, competitive race, Compliance Officer gets the nod. He is 2 of 4 on the AQU turf, and is good at the distance. He drops from OC $62K into this spot and has far and away the best figures. He has had some trouble finding the winners enclosure so there is always a little doubt, but he’ll be low odds and seems best.
• 10 Blue Pigeon – Nothing but in the money finishes in his last five, including a win on the yielding BEL turf last out. Probably not dropping significantly in price but fits with this group. Like the running style and Irad stays for Clement. Wouldn’t be a surprise.
• 2 Jonrah – In a move you don’t see too often Chad Brown claimed the horse last out for $40K and wheels him back in this OC $40K and offers him for the same price. I’m not sure what that means – is he just looking to grab a purse or is he signalling it wasn’t a great move to grab the horse? In any case the horse ran well in this class level last time and has some good figures in his past performance.
• 11 I Got Id – wondering what Imbriale does with this name. Will it be I-D or id? Horse has only 4 starts with two wins and a place. Nothing I like better than to find a three year old with prospects to improve. He may have some physical issues, but he’s had a nice set of works for this return and I’ll give him a reasonable chance to jump up.

Race 7

• 7 Little Gidding – had some good races at SAR and BEL during the summer but had trouble staying in front all the way to the wire at 6 1/2. Cut back to 6 furlongs on a good Laurel track with the same result. Drops in price for RuRod and gets Irad for the ride. Perhaps a bit chancy but has speed and fits the group.
• 4 Da Wildcat Girl – Two race win streak on the line. Grabbed by Scott Schwartz last time out for $25K and he drops her a level today. Has been consistent all year and should have no problem with the cut back to 6 furlongs.
• 6 Bridget Maloney – Has had some success at AQU and at the distance. A lot of races this year. Was claimed two back by Peter Chris and he got her to run second with $20K state-breds. Not without a chance.
• 3 Foxbeau – has been off since March for new trainer Gary Gullo. Comes down by half from his last claiming price. Is 1 for 1 on the AQU dirt and has two wins in five attempts  at the distance. Ran well in his debut start so perhaps she’ll come running today.

Race 8

• 1a Goodtolook – Contessa scratched Pretension to leave this one in despite Pretension looking like the stronger of the two. Has shown lots of speed at route distances since the claim and tries sprinting today. Gotta trust Contessa on this one.
• 2 Smokem’s Charm – ships in from FL for Charlton Baker. Works well in the morning upstate and has been with some of the better state-breds at FL. At 15-1 ML worth throwing in to the verticals and horizontals.
• 4 Writingonthewall – won two of his last three including a very nice win at today’s distance against a $25K starter allowance. One of four at AQU and won his only start at this distance. Michelle Nevin has kept a low profile at AQU but is 5 of 6 in the money. Should be a solid favorite and would be no surprise at all to find the winners enclosure.
• 5 Sol The Freud – Finished second off a two month layoff and comes back after another five weeks off. Has one uninspiring work for this one, but has the number and the running style to compete.

Race 9

• 7 Fulmer – Didn’t break well in his last, dropped all the way back and then started a long sustained run down the backstretch. Nobody was beating Kerjillion that day and Fulmer did well to get the place. Third place runner broke his maiden next time out. Very Dangerous with a good break.
• 10 No Texting – plenty of early speed but questionable heart in the stretch. Still, the track has played friendly to speed so that is in his favor. Has the figures to win here.
• 4 Gear Jammer – Looked  pretty good in his last two starts at a mile and adds blinkers today. Has a couple of nice workouts prepping for this.
• 8 Pronunciation – first two finishers came from well off the pace. Bumped at the start and had to work hard to get a spot. Stayed wide throughout and really wasn’t likely sustain to given the early trouble and position. Can improve enough to outpace the field here.
• 6 Mark My Style – ran poorly on the slop but in his prior race ran a good one in the same race Gear Jammer finished 3rd. He was only half a length behind that one and should be double Gear Jammer’s odds. I’ll probably use him in my pick 3/4.