Aqueduct December 28

Race 1

  • 8 Rose Quartz – yes, she has 9 starts but 7 of them were on the turf and she has at best average turf breeding. Since switching to the dirt she had a third on a sloppy track and then made a big middle move but flattened badly. She’s bred well enough for the distance and considering it is only her third start on the dirt, she has the best figures, ¬†and she is taking a big drop in price, we’ll give her top billing.
  • 7 Papous Mia Bella – second start maiden has a nice third at today’s class and distance despite being squeezed at the start. Has a lot of upside.
  • 6 Senso – nine starts with four seconds and a third. Certainly has the figures to compete but still waiting for her to show the heart to win.

Race 2

  • 8 N.F’s Destiny – I don’t know what to do with Jacobson. Friday he was unstoppable. Saturday he was radioactive. This one looks more typical of the Jacobson winners. Five good races and then he slices the claiming offer in half. As much as you might hate backing these horses, he has the best figures and rarely runs a bad one.
  • 1/1a Wild Finish/Carolinian – both horses have spent time at Finger Lakes but have competed with the big boys too. Wild Finish is more of a pressing type while Carolinian should be the one pushing the 8. They both have competitive figures and have been stabled at BEL for a while so they should be acclimated. Like the workout pattern and at 8-1 ML they are worth watching.
  • 5 Pretension – throw out the last race and he’s right in the mix. Has a lot of good races on the fast dirt. He landed at the end of the selection list only because there are no workouts since Nov. 30

Race 3

  • 5 The Lewis Dinner – on a two race win streak including a state-bred stakes last out. Can’t argue with the figures but at 3/5 on the ML she’s not likely to warrant my win money.
  • 2 Kathy’s Humor – Good debut but a little concerned there have been no works in the last month. Gets Irad for the trip and that is a positive. Violette is fair with 2nd start maidens and 2 year olds.
  • 6 Omagoddonna – won a $50K starter last time and adds blinkers today. May give the 5 some competition today.

Race 4

  • 7 Pitched – Assaf Ronen grabbed this one two back for this price, jumped her up and brings her back for the original claiming price. Given Ronen’s record it is a little bit of a stretch to look at this one in the win slot, but the 6-1 ML makes the horse interesting.
  • 2 Reckless Move – is the 8-5 ML favorite and while she may have the best figures, she’s only the favorite because the field is not strong and while I think she is very vulnerable it’s hard to come up with a lot of alternatives.
  • 6 Prove It All Night – Lots of speed and two starts on the inner. I think the 1 may compromise this one on the front end, but she has the potential to set a comfortable pace and wire the field.

Race 5

  • 3 Disco Partner – one start, one win and in a very good time. Junior Alvarado continues his comeback and he looks to have recovered from his injury nicely. Steady workouts since his debut.
  • 7 Chasing Bubbles – wired a field last out on the inner. Stepping up quite a bit from that one, but he is a legitimate front runner and his figure jumped way up last race. With continued improvement he has a shot in here.
  • 4 Deputy Busterstone – Tried Saratoga first time out, ran a fair race, moved to FL for a couple of state bred stakes and broke his maiden last out in dominating fashion. Back with the big boys again today with some useful racing lessons behind him.

Race 6

  • 7 Mighty Zealous – hasn’t run a bad race in his career. I like the pressing style in this one – there is some decent speed signed on and that may be to his advantage. Fast work a couple of weeks ago. Seems to have a preference for the fast track, and might have been looking for his second win in a row had it not been for some traffic coming into the stretch last out. Not the fastest figure but close to the top and the running style may be enough to get the win.
  • 5 Giantinthemoonlite – Puts the blinkers on for Bruce Brown, but he is 0 for 17 with that move. Another that hasn’t run a bad one, Lots of speed, but doesn’t look like a need to lead type.
  • 1 Between the Lines – ran in a few 5 1/2 furlong affairs last winter. Has won off the layoff and the works look positive. Perhaps a bit of a stretch given Lostritto is the trainer, so I would say watch the board and see if he looks live.

Race 7

  • 6 Cosmic Coincidence – Last win was at this level two back. Has a lot of speed and the ability to wire this field at a bit of a price.
  • 5 Horatio – should be one of the trackers. Claimed two back and then jumped up to $35K NW3. Finished a close second in that one and is back to $25K today. Shouldn’t have any trouble with the distance. Two wins in 21 starts a little thin, but 13 second and third place finishes should put him in the mix.
  • 2 Salisbury Knight – was stuck at the NW1X level for 7 starts but won last out. Drops in for a tag today, not a substantial drop in class but perhaps enough to give him some outs. A little concerning both his wins have come on a sloppy track and he is 0 for 6 on the fast dirt. Certainly would be no value at his ML odds of 2-1.

Race 8

  • 2 Amulay – After a win in the mud at SAR Bruce Levine shipped the horse to Parx where she won an allowance and finished second in two OC $25K. Has been working steadily at BEL for this return. Her figures make her competitive in this group.
  • 7 Dear Mama – finally broke through at the NW1X level. The clear speed of the field and will have to be caught to be beaten. Farthest she’s gone but she did take to the one turn route at AQU.
  • 6 Lotsa Noodles – veteran mare has had a good 2014 with six starts, two wins and three seconds. She was claimed last out by Steve Klesaris and runs for a tag in this OC $60K event. Like the step up today and like the tracking style. Has the figures to be competitive here.

Race 9

  • 2 Beyond the Green two second place finishes in a row, including one on the inner. Ryerson is having a good inner meet with limited starters. Good maintenance work a week ago. Will need a first class ride from Franco to get good position to unleash a stretch kick
  • 3 Swivel – Finished right behind the 2 in his last. Another that comes from the back of the pack. Alvarado takes the mount and he is familiar with the horse having ridden him in his maiden sprint at AQU. Exceptional breeding for the distance and really a co-choice with the 2.
  • 7 Space Oddity – ran well in his first dirt route after being wide throughout. Steady series of works including a Christmas Eve blowout. First time on a fast dirt and if he takes to it, could be home free.