Aqueduct November 23

Tough day with lots of overflow fields. I spent a looong time on this card so I hope we have the kind of success we’ve been having this week.

Race 1

  • 1 Mr. Amos – broke his maiden at MTH at a mile, came back in a Futurity at BEL and didn’t run much. The winner of that race came back to win a Grade 2 event next out. He was then taken to Parx where he ran decently in a 7 furlong race. The winner of that race came back to finish second in a stakes at Laurel. He’s been racing with better and I like the pressing style here.
  • 5 Oh Poggibonsi – if I had to bet based on names this one is a complete pitch. Luckily I only have to bet it. One race, one win on a muddy BEL track (how often have we been saying that). This is a pretty decent jump up from MCL $40K to OC $65K but he had a figure that would make him competitive in this field. He has solid sprinter breeding and Jeremiah Englehart is 25% with this layoff.  He’s got four similar four furlong works for this return and gets a rider upgrade to Javier.
  • 3 Whateveryouwant – the 2-1 ML favorite, has the best overall figures and although it took until his fifth start to find a win, he’d been sniffing around for a while. Has good speed, but is most likely to track the 5 here. A plus that his maiden victory came at AQU and at this distance. He really is the one in control of the race and if Rosario plays it right he can get the win.

Race 2

  • 3 Classic Salsa – interesting horse. Was in the Jacobson barn and hadn’t done anything since April at AQU. Was claimed last out by RuRod and he’s close to 30% first off the claim. Is dropping in claiming price by half and gets the services of Irad. Basically we’re betting the Rudy juice is better for the horse than the Jacobson juice, because otherwise he looks out of condition. Still, he has some back races that would win this race.
  • 8 Horatio – only 2 wins from 19 starts, but 11 seconds and thirds. He was racing with better when Michelle Nevin grabbed him for $20K. He looks like more of a presser so he may be another that benefits from a fast Big Lute pace.
  • 1/1a Big Lute/Indian Nobility – As much as I don’t like putting Big Lute on top he is dominant from a figure standpoint. He blitzed a field at BEL on a good track, but came back at 1-5 and was run down by Mop Head. He shows a couple of 7 furlong events where he was not able to hold on to the wire but with the drop to the lowest level he’s seen you have to give him a shot. Jacobson is great with the drop in price. Indian Nobilty won a $50K race at SAR in August, flopped badly on a sloppy BEL track and ran wide in a $35 claimer. He has more of a pressing style so the defection of Big Lute may have cost him his setup.
  • 6 Shot to Win – aptly named. He drops to his lowest level today and was a winner in a NW1X at SAR at 7 furlongs in July, Given the layoff until November it’s not surprising he was a little short last out at a mile. He should be one that handles today’s distance just fine.

Race 3

  • 5 My Tee Time – Should be the clear front runner and I’m feeling much more solid about her since Insolvent scratched. Lifetime she has been fair at the six furlong trip, although lately she’s run out of gas going the sprint distances. The drop in price may help her to retain her speed and the fact that she’s been popular at the claiming box is in her favor. Manny Franco picks up the ride and that should help.
  • 7 Purling – has been running usefully this year, and did well at this level last out. Actually shows a preference for the six furlong distance so the cutback should suit her well. Has done decently at AQU. Will have to make sure to get a good tracking spot but Cornelio has ridden her effectively the last two times.
  • 1/1a Blue Ballerina/Midnighpositano – Blue Ballerina is jumping up for Oscar Barrera. Fast enough to engage near the leaders but may be in there to set it up for the 1a. Midnightpositano can press and actually ran a pretty good figure last out at 7 furlongs on this dirt. She’s in about as good a condition as she’s seen in a while. Downside is that she’s more apt to finish in the money than win.
  • 8 Fall Into Faith – an interesting horse. Really low key connections but still an interesting runner. Started 2014 on the inner at AQU and shifted to the turf for BEL where she has shown very little aptitude. Hier one win this year came on a good BEL main track in a race washed off the turf. She gets back to the dry dirt today. The down side – 3 for 43, but she can still hit the board.

Race 4

  • 4 Trophee – Came to NA, got Lasix and closed nicely in a MSW at SAR.  Her figure from that race tops this field and the very able Christophe Clement has prepped her nicely for this start. Johnny V takes the mount and that is a plus. Should be a perfect distance. Only issue should be making sure she get the right spot to kick home.
  • 3 Miss Lech – Chad Brown trainee has been knocking on the door for a while. It’s a little concerning she hasn’t made it over the top but she may be crying for the extra distance. She much better bred for a route of ground and with her experience and figures she’s a definite contender.
  • 5 Angel Choir – Dropped into a MCL and nearly got the victory last out. Another with competitive figures but she’s running out of chances. More likely part of the exotics, but this is not such a tough field she can’t break her maiden.
  • 8 Strum – She really hasn’t run a bad race and with Pletcher training she has to be given serious consideration. She seems much better suited to the 1 1/16 mile trip and should be able to establish a pressing position early. She only has one turf race and that showed pretty good ability, and the fact that she comes back on the turf is a good sign.

Race 5

  • 13 Sonora – gets in off the AE list and has far and away the best figure. Should go to the front and try to take the field all the way home.
  • 4 Madoo – only two horses in the main body of the field have started. Violette is fair with 2nd start maidens. In her race the winner was 7 clear, and she wasn’t far behind the place horse. The cut back to 6 furlongs can’t hurt and the string of workouts is impressive.
  • 5 Miss Valued – Jeremiah Englehart is 18% with first timers and 17% with 2 year olds overall. Sold for almost double her stud fee as a 2 year old this spring. Has an impressive and steady string of works and should be ready for the debut. Well bred for the sprint distance.
  • 8 Downton Alley – Leah Gyamati has two in here and the signs are a little conflicting. It looks like the stablemates worked in company three times and the 8 had the better of the going. However, primary rider Irad Ortiz went to the 10. Both look good so I put the longer odds in this slot.
  • Some other thoughts: 10 Beating Heart Baby  is the other Gyamati trainee. Like I said, take your pick. I’m not ready to completely discard 3 Barrel of Dreams. She had a bad start and never got into the last race, but puts blinkers on today and that can make a difference. Clearly she wasn’t well thought of last out, going off at 60-1, but because we really haven’t seen the best she has we don’t know for sure she is an also ran. One of the other firsters, 6 Camille’s Storm also has a nice workout pattern, although Ryerson is not notable with first timers or two year olds.

Race 6

  • 12 Super City – in a race about as bad as it gets Super City has a few positives. She’s not superbly bred for the turf, yet Colum O’Brien put her there for her first two lifetime starts. The first start she showed a ton of speed after breaking slightly slow and then not unexpectedly backed up in the stretch. Second out she never got into the race, and third out was on a sloppy track she didn’t seem to grab hold of. She’s beautifully bred for the sprint and has a really nice workout since her last. The drop from MSW to the cheap claiming ranks is huge. She also puts blinkers on today. She’ll have some work to do from the far outside, but I like the 8-1 ML.
  • 5 Marriedtomichael – another one that has seen more off/turf tracks than fast tracks. Has been dropping steadily and seems to have found the right level.
  • 1 Geraldine – ran into a sloppy AQU track last out and never got into the race. Before that she was competetive at this level at Laurel after being off over a year. This is the third in the current sequence and she definitely has the figure and running style to be a factor today.
  • 14 Doesnotgrowontrees – first start was on a sloppy track. She had some trouble getting out of the gate, showed a little bit of interest and backed up. I’ll give her another shot to show what she’s got today, especially considering she got reasonable backing last time.

Race 7

  • 9 Village Warrior – has a ton of speed and no turf form. If he goes he is intriguing because this race has such little speed.
  • 7 Innovation Economy – Come from the clouds sort went a mile and a half last time. He brushed the gate on the way out and made up some ground, eventually just finishing the race evenly. Has consistent numbers in his three starts. Has a nice steady series of works for this. Brown/Castellano partnership hits at 27%.
  • 8 Make a Decision – barely missed at a mile and a half at about this class level and that was encouraging considering he hasn’t won this year. Overall he has the best figures but they don’t stand far above a few in here. Has a much more midpack style, so he should get a reasonably good position and make a strong close in the stretch.
  • 5 Bishop’s Castle – first start since coming from Britain. Adds Lasix for good percentage, low profile trainer Todd Wyatt who engages Jose Ortiz for the ride. Should have no issue with the distance, but only has one workout to prep. Based on his Euro comments, he’s another midpack to the rear.

Race 8

  • 4 Court Dancer – laid off from December to August and returned in a SAR turf sprint. She rested again until November 1 and ran a strong second in a sprint on a sloppy track at AQU. She seems just fine on a fast dirt track and since she’s coming back in three weeks she should be in top shape for this run. She had a nice maintenance work a week ago and gets a jockey upgrade to Rosario.
  • 1 Ms. Sylvia A. – broke her maiden then immediately jumped into a $40K starter, winning again. She next took on state bred stakes horses, including the well regarded Isabelle, finishing mid-pack. She then laid off for five months and came back at this class level, finishing second behind the dominating Blithely who came back to win an OC $40K. Some good works for Nevin who has been hot lately.
  • 8 My Girl Madison – shows a lot of early foot and that can be dangerous in this field. Not sure she’ll like the 6 1/2 furlongs, but she’ll give them something to run at.
  • 3 Rock N Cozy – Claimed by Jacobson last out off a win in a $40K NW2L. She’s better than 50% seconds and thirds lifetime, but she has been in better condition lately and Jacobson always makes a difference.

Race 9

  • 4 Uncle Chester – first timer for Gyamati who does good with debut runners. He’s well bred for the turf and this distance. Nice series of workouts in preparation for this.
  • 7 Worbothor – another of the first timers, this one for Steve Klesaris. He’s 21%with first time starters, 15% with two year olds overall. The works are not particularly outstanding, but she is well bred for the turf and the distance. Klesaris/Arroyo combination hits at 25%.
  • 9 Humboldt and Frost – has been showing speed and takes the blinkers off in an effort to get her to relax. Hasn’t been on the turf yet, but is average bred for the surface and distance. We’ll see if she relishes the change to the green.
  • 3 Renwick – goes for the Clement stable. His turf breeding is fair at best, although he is monstrously rated for the distance. Rosario gets the mount and the combination with Rosario is over 20%