This was the race I did for Horseplayer Magazine for three years running, so I have a pretty fair idea of the prep races and the strength of the fillies.

The Europeans have always dominated the traditional Breeder’s Cup turf events. However, until the 2012 version, exactly the opposite was true in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. In the inaugural running in 2008, European imports Beyond Our Reach and April Pride were no factors, finishing last and second to last, respectively, although the Aiden O’Bren-trained Heart Shaped came a jump short of catching long-shot winner Maram.

In 2009, race favorite Lillie Langtry could manage no better than an eighth place finish, the best of any Euro runner. The next year wasn’t much more productive, with the Europeans finishing fifth, seventh, eleventh, and dead last. In 2011 three European fillies made the trip, and again they disappointed their backers, finishing fourth, eighth, and a seemingly predictable last.

Things changed – a little bit anyway – in 2012 when the Breeder’s Cup banned the use of race-day Lasix in the juvenile races. Five European based horses ran in the Juvenile Fillies Turf and one of them, Flotilla, won the race. The other four, The Gold Cheongsam, Waterway Run, Sky Lantern, and Infana Braca finished between 5th and 10th, the same sort of result the Euros achieved in the previous years.

Euro’s who are good enough to win the best European races don’t often ship to the Breeder’s Cup, and some of the horses that have run well in races like the Arc de Triomphe don’t often have fuel left in the tank for the Breeder’s Cup. On the other hand, some of the also rans in big races are competitive with the North American runners. With the two year-old fillies, almost every top European juvenile has far more interest in the top European three year-old races and passes the Breeder’s Cup. In 2012, Flotilla came out of a fourth place finish in the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp. I remember in doing the analysis in Horseplayer I noted that the Boussac horses would warrant serious consideration, both because of the field quality and the fact that the horses have to negotiate turns, but unfortunately I didn’t have the results of the race before the press deadline. The best of the Euros was supposed to be Sky Lantern, winner of the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes. He managed no better than 8th. So it was somewhat good news and the same old news. Yes, a Euro won the race, but the contingent in general ran as mediocre as they had in previous years.

In 2013 another European won. Chriselliam had won the ungraded Ascendant Stakes and the very highly regarded Group 1 Shadwell Fillies Mile at Newmarket before shipping to Santa Anita. As I had mentioned in the Horseplayer article, no horses had shipped to the Breeder’s Cup off the Shadwell Mile, but given the quality of the race if one did she would merit serious consideration. Interestingly, that Breeder’s Cup win for Chriselliam was the last time the horse raced. Interpret that as you will. You might argue that Testa Rossi was European, but I think she lost that distinction when she shipped over early to win the Miss Grillo at Belmont. Otherwise, the other two true Europeans, Vorda and Al Thakira, finished seventh and dead last, about the spots we’ve expected to see them.

The Europeans have had two disadvantages in this race. Until Sky Lantern and Chriselliam, most of the best European two year-olds had no interest in disrupting the highly lucrative European three year-old campaign. Realistically, Flotilla was not considered one of the top two year-old fillies. Second, most of the Europeans have not gone around two turns, or for that matter even one turn. Most of the seven furlong and mile races are on the straight, and experience around turns is crucial to the success of two year olds trying routes at one mile tracks. The only European exception was Flotilla who had to navigate the twists at Longchamp and came ready to deal with the turns.

This year Lasix is back and I’m going to make a bold statement. The Europeans are more likely to be back in mid-pack than leading the way to the wire.

The key prep races for the Juvenile Fillies Turf are the Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh in Ireland; the 8-furlong Natalma Stakes at Woddbine; the Shadwell Fillies Mile at Newmarket; the Miss Grillo at Belmont; and the Jessamine at Keeneland. In terms of impact the best North American finishers have either come out of the Miss Grillo or the Natalma, although the Jessamine has produced some in the money finishers.

The prep races in California, the Surfer Girl and the Oak Tree Juvenile Fillies Turf at Del Mar, have not been around as long as the primary stakes, but given they provide experience on West Coast turf courses, runners coming out of those races may ultimately prove to be  factors. The down sides – neither race has graded status and the quality of runners is at least a cut below the graded races at Belmont, Woodbine, and Keenland.

Let’s look at the North American contenders.

Conquest Harlanate – Winner of the Grade 2 Natalma and conditioned by Canadian training wizard Mark Casse. She’s been around two turns and has won on both the turf and the poly track. Don’t let the figure from the Natalma discourage you from backing her – that was a bouncy turf course that day and there were only two turf races. One was the Summer Stakes and it went almost a second slower than the Natalma. She has a nice pressing style and a powerful closing kick. She looks to be one of the top three domestic contenders.

Isabella Sings – She was the second place finisher in the Natalma and is trained by Todd Pletcher. As good a trainer as Pletcher is, he hasn’t really stood out in the Breeder’s Cup. However, Isabella Sings is a real contender here. In the Natalma she was wide around the far turn, took the lead entering the stretch and did everything she could to hold off Conquest Harlanate, ultimately losing by a neck. She wouldn’t have to improve much to turn the tables.

Lady Eli – Trained by the other East Coast sharpie, Chad Brown. She won the Miss Grillo convincingly, running the last 3/16 in about 29 seconds. That’s exceptional time for two year old fillies. She is lightly raced – she broke her maiden at a mile and a sixteenth at Saratoga and and came right back to win the Miss Grillo. Brown has kept her on edge with some nice breezes on the turf. She is the other in the top three contingent.

Quality Rocks – ran a nice one in the Jessamine in her first try on the turf. She’s decently bred for the surface and other than getting caught by Rainha Da Batera, she’s done little wrong. Still, I think she might not be good enough in this field.

Rainha Da Bateria – came from the last to win the Jessamine. That was a strangely run race with Cool Comfort running his own race for a while and the field sweeping up around the turn. The 8th by 14 Rainha Da Bateria shows for the first two calls was really more like 8th by 6 behind the horse setting the pace for the main pack, Quality Rocks. The race was ambiguous in terms of quality – Quality Rocks won the Arlington-Washington Futurity, but Cool Comfort, Fila Primera and Walking the Kitten were all coming out of their maiden races. I’m thinking the horse is in the second tier, and if the pace is easy, she has fewer chances if she comes from the clouds again. Still, she could be any kind.

Sunset Glow –  After winning the Del Mar Debutante and the Sorrento on the poly track, trainer Wesley Ward shipped her to Keeneland with his eye on the Alcibiades, but she never got to run and that has to be concerning. She started her career at Presque Isle and moved to Belmont where she broke her maiden at five furlongs on the good turf. From there she shipped to Ascot where she finished second in the Group 3 Albany stakes on the soft turf and then back to Del Mar. She seemed to be the top 2 year-old filly in training on the West Coast, and that alone should give her some respect, but given she hasn’t been around two turns and she missed her prep, I’m going to pass on including her.

Of the North American Runners, I think Lady Eli, Conquest Harlanate, and Isabella Sings have the best chances. 

Now for the European Horses.

Osaila – Finished fifth in the Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh and then came back to win the Tattersalls Millions 2YO Fillies Trophy at Newmarket. She was not that well regarded in the Moyglare, but ran decently, although she never threatened to crack the top three. She’s obviously a cut below the best the UK has to offer, and like a lot of the Euros she hasn’t gotten to run around two turns. The TimeForm analyst gives her the equivalent of a strong allowance horse rating, and does note she is precocious, having started her career in June. She’s similar to the Euro winner Flotilla in the sense that she finished out of the money in a high quality race and it would not be irrational to use her. I just think a win is a lot to ask for today.

Qualify – She’s admittedly a cut below the best Europe has to offer and really rates no higher than Osailla. She finished toward the back of the pack in the Moyglare, although she did win a Group 3 before shipping over here. She’s conditioned by the crafty Aidan O’Brien and that’s a big plus. Still, she has the look of a lot of the horses O’Brien has failed with in this race. Seems with the Lasix back perhaps the Euros have decided not to send their best over.

Sivoliere – switches to Chad Brown for this one and Brown is a 30% trainer with horses trying the North American turf for the first time. She’s another with a good allowance horse rating, and it really depends on how much you think Brown can improve the horse as to whether you throw her in your horizontals and verticals. I’m betting she will get no better than a minor award, and she doesn’t seem really solid for that.

Prize Exhibit – one of the Euro’s who drew in. She’s had a lot of starts with no wins in Group races. She just seems more likely to take the spot Euros have finished in more than any other – last – than crack the top three.

The betting strategy for the Juvenile Fillies Turf seems to boil down to one factor: favorites have not done well, but the horses that have won have done well in one of the major preps. Just remember one thing – these are two year olds and big improvement from race to race defines the group.