Start spreading the news, it’s NY Breds day at Belmont. State-bred races are just like other races – value can be found.

Race 1

• 2 Tizquick – in a mediocre maiden field Tizquick has a lot of upside. He lost his first start to Upstart, a horse that subsequently won the Funny Cide and finished second in the Champagne. He’s showed improved speed in his two starts, including his last the Bertram Bongard stakes. He’s listed at 6-5 on the ML and I have no reason to expect he’ll be lower than that, but he does look strong in this spot. He switches from Alvarado to Rosario.
• 1/1a Black Tide/Fallfire – This Ralph D’Alessandro trained pair both have chances, although Fallfire looks to be the stronger of the two. Black Tide has had two starts on sloppy tracks, not showing much in either, and a start at a mile, a distance he doesn’t seem well suited for. He could be a lot better than we’ve seen. Fallfire lost to Good Luck Gus and Thank You and both horses are going in the Sleepy Hollow in the next race. He has been running at Finger Lakes, although I don’t see that as a negative. FL has some pretty fair state-bred races. He has a ton of speed and fading in stakes races isn’t of serious concern – he’s against better horses. It’s a strong combined duo.
• 5 Limerick Lightning – first time starter for Colum O’Brien with a nice series of morning drills. O’Brien has only 4 starts with firsters with no wins – in fact, he hasn’t recorded a winner in any of his six 2014 starts. Still, this one has enough positives and the field is mediocre enough to make him interesting.

Race 2     Sleepy Hollow     2-3-5

• 1 Thank You – couldn’t win in four MSW starts but did finish second in the NY Breeders Futurity at FL. Doesn’t get me excited.
• 2 Ostrolenka – won his maiden by 14 lengths at today’s distance in a nine horse field with a good final time after doing little on the slop in his first start. Pletcher trainee is listed at 6-5 on the ML and based on that powerful win he could dominate the field.
• 3 Bullheaded Boy – broke his maiden in the SAR slop at 5F and raced in two state-bred stakes. Puts the blinkers on for Pletcher. His main jock, Johnny V, decided to go with Ostrolenka so Jose Ortiz picks up the mount. He has chances, but I’m leaning in other directions.
• 4 Breakin the Fever – a winner by 10 lengths in his maiden on a sloppy BEL track.  Looks like the strategy will be to go to the front in which case he’ll have to outgun Good Luck Gus and Ostrolenka.  I’m not confident he’ll be that good.
• 5 Market Conduct – finished behind Bullhead Boy in the Bongard Stakes but does have the ability to be coming late. Has a chance in this race, especially if the 2, 4, and 7 knock each other out.
• 6 Bellamy Way – Finished second behind Ostolenka, but really didn’t finish powerfully in either of his starts. An outside shot in my opinion.
• 7 Good Luck Gus – Another that broke his maiden on a sloppy SAR track. He is not a need to lead sort, but he hasn’t gone the mile yet. Did beat Thank You in the the Breeder’s Futurity at FL. In a two year old race where horses have limited starts nothing that happens is a surprise. Still some things are more likely than others and I’ll admit he seems less likely a winner than the Pletcher horses.

Race 3     The Maid of the Mist      9-6-3-5

• 1 Hard to Stay Notgo – love the name, like the horse, although not as much as others. Broke her maiden on a fast SAR track and ran well in a state-bred stakes at six and a half furlongs. She was demolished (like evreryone) by Temper Mint Patty last out, and I’m not sure why I should think she might turn the tables today.
• 2 Lady Bling – broke poorly in the Miss Grillo, was really wide but ran evenly. Both her races have been on the turf; certainly can get the distance. I’m not taken with a plodding style, so I probably won’t have her on many tickets.
• 3 Dunn Listening – did break her maiden in a state-bred stakes at FL, but had trouble at the start in her follow up in the Breeder’s Futurity, a race won by the aforementioned Good Luck Gus. Has a closing but not plodding style and at 15-1 ML she looks overlayed.
• 4 Myfourchix – Another that broke her maiden in a stakes, this one at SAR. but was another destroyed by Temper Mint Patty. It may have been the mud that gave her problems, but we won’t know until after this race is run.
• 5 Sweetpollypurebrd – two nice races for the ultra-hot Rudy Rodriguez. Doesn’t look like Temper Mint Patty but is a competitor for the lesser awards.
• 6 Quezon – six length winner in a pretty good time in the mud at BEL a month ago. Tiz Wonderful two year olds have been impressive this year and this is a good one. Should be fine at the mile distance.Perhaps the main threat to the 9
• 7 Sandra – seven length winner at 7F at BEL two weeks ago. There is enough speed in this race so not let her loose early. Could be any kind at this point, and although her Beyers doesn’t look good in comparison, her pace figure is. I’d say ignore at your own risk.
• 8 Serious Happiness – 30-1 ML and probably deserves it. Took her five times to break her maiden, which she did at Parx. I’m not a fan.
• 9 Temper Mint Patty – devastating win in the mud at BEL in September after breaking her maiden at SAR. She’s fast, she’s well-bred, and deserves the favorites role.

Race 4     The Mohawk      3-9-1-8

• 1 Kharafa – Only one win this year, but has been competitive in all his races. At 5-1 ML he’s priced where he should be. Hard to see the win, but not hard to see him being part of the exotics.
• 2 Analysis – just doesn’t look good enough to compete with these.
• 3 King Kressa – between him and Lubash you have the winner of most of the state bred turf route stakes. Probably the better of the two at the mile and a sixteenth.
• 4 Captain Gaughen – I can’t see his chances being very good against the best state bred turfers.
• 5 Harbor King – MTO
• 6 Ocala Jim – he’s a good horse, but has never been competitive above NW1X. Hard to imagine he beats the best in this field.
• 7 Saturday Appeal – MTO
• 8 Notacatbutallama – Perhaps a half step below King Kressa and Lubash, but still belongs with this group. Pletcher/Velasquez are always dangerous.
• 9 Lubash – one of the big three in this race. Has a nice pressing style, and can be effective at the mile and a sixteenth. Seems to prefer the firmer going, but the track has been drying out and will likely be no worse than good. See-saw for the win with King Kressa.
• 10 Front – another who is a good horse, just not as good as some in here. His two wins this year have been against lesser. Maybe toss him in the back holes.

Race 5     The Iroquois     8-6-4-1

• 1 Capella Dancer – has been mostly starring at Finger Lakes and Presque Isle. Won a stakes on a muddy track, and on the wet going has won 7 of 10. Not so bad on the fast dirt with 4 wins and 7 seconds out of 16 starts. She may be a little over her head in this group but she can’t be immediately dismissed.
• 2 Make the Moment – one win at BEL, another that seems to upgrade when the track is wet. 12-1 on the ML and that about describes her chances.
• 3 Kimmies Lucky Star – plodding sort hasn’t won this year and is still eligible for NW1X races. Can’t see her making an impact in this race.
• 4 Willet – Finished 3rd in the Gallant Bloom last out. In eight starts at BEL she has 3 wins, 2 place, and 2 show. Needless to say, she likes BEL and that is always a positive factor. Perhaps she’s tailed off a bit as a 6 year old, but still represents a big player here.
• 5 Irish Whisper – has been off since April but last time she was on break she came home in front. Still, she looks a cut or two below stakes level and would have to fun faster than she ever has to get a piece here.
• 6 Risky Rachel – switches to the George Weaver barn for this start. Won earlier this year at Tampa, and ran competitively in her two sprint stakes at SAR and BEL earlier this year. Weaver has her cranked given the swift breeze six days ago. Upset possibilities
• 7 Cape Cod Carol – couldn’t beat an OC $40 field at Parx last out. Was slammed by La Verdad in the slop in the Broadway stakes and no reason to expect a turn around today.
• 8 La Verdad – makes a living beating this type of field. Ran into the monstrously tough Artemis Argotera in her last two, but still ran creditably. Depends a lot on the pace, but the expectation is that she’ll be able to get to the front and dictate comfortable fractions. If she does she should run away from the field.
• 9 Champagne Ruby – Won the Niagara at FL but flopped in the mud in her next. She’s not had much luck in the statebred affairs at BEL and seems one of the also rans in this race.

Race 6

• 10 Ode to the Hunt – finished second first out, outrunning his 19-1 odds. He’s come back with a dazzling series of works. Knows the track, knows the distance and gets the nod.
• 11 Trees Are Wild – Nick Esler is 29% with firsters. Rockport Harbor is a fair turf sire, and his dam Kindness has plenty of turf upside. Works are decent but will have to overcome the outside post.
• 9 Brother O’Connell – had some touble in both his starts but with a clean break and smart trip he competes here.
• 12 Gear Jammer – had the lead most of the race in his last start and just missed holding off Ode to the Hunt. Carlos Martin does well with two year olds.

Race 7     The Empire Distaff     5-9-3-1a

• 2 Pennymine – hasn’t been the distance and has been up against OC $40K. Not likely today.
• 3 Sunny Desert – love the way Bruce Levine has brought her up to the race. Definitely seems better at a mile and a sixteenth. 2 for 4 on the BEL turf and a contender today.
• 4 Flipcup – has been racing with these sorts all year. Prefers to lay back and make a late move and that may be effective today, Contender.
• 5 Princess Violet – came into her own last race after knocking heads with the likes of Untapable and Stonetastic in graded races. Has the fastest pace figure, but she hasn’t been successful at the distance yet. Favorite but not unbeatable.
• 6 Lady Gracenote – outsider in this field.
• 1 Dreaming of Cara – has been competing with state bred stakes runners but not very successfully. She hasn’t had a win in 10 starts this year and no reason to expect today is the day.
• 7 Storied Lady – hasn’t been able to crack through at the stakes level but has some in the money finishes. That looks like her best hope today.
• 8 Tahoe Tigress – only win this year was an open OC $62 NW2X. Otherwise in her stakes tries she’s not been a threat. I don’t think she’s a threat today.
• 9 Star Grazing – Jimmy Jerkens is looking to get back on track at the fall BEL meeting. She won the Fleet Indian as she zipped through her conditions, had a troubled trip last time and never really got into the race. Still, she needs to be respected here.
• 10 Unbelievable Dream – 0 for 8 this year, should be 0 for 9 after this race.
• 1a Carameaway – stronger of the two Friedman entrants. Loves to run to the front and looks to be in top shape. Some plusses and minuses, but definitely a contender.

Race 8     Empire Classic     8-3-6-2

• 2 Sinistra – won the Shipman and then went into a couple of open OC $62 events where he ran respectably. Contender.
• 3 Saratoga Snacks – is 2-1 on the ML but I’m not sure he deserves it. Was good as a four year old but hasn’t made it to the winner’s circle this year. On her best day he tops this field, but I wouldn’t take him at 33% odds.
• 4 BeautyinthePulpit – beat the 3 last out at a mile after being off a couple of months. He  loves the BEL surface and is fine at the distance but I’m going to look elsewhere for the win.
• 5 Effinex – second in the Albany but only wins this year were on the AQU inner. Not the one today.
• 6 So Lonesome – was the winner of the Albany in his first race on the dirt wince last year at BEL. Seems to be a little in and out but at his best is a fast horse. Contender.
• 7 Eye Luv Lulu – in the money at best
• 1 Empire Dreams – seems a step slower than the best of these and relagated to a minor award.
• 8 Sioux – improving 3 year old dominated an OC $40K field last out. I like the works and Hushion has been good in spots like this. Major Player
• 1a Awesome Vision – couldn’t compete against open company last two outs but has been useful in state bred stakes. I think he’s slated for a minor award at best.

Race 9    The Ticonderoga       10-5-9-6

• 2 Mah Jong Madness – won the Mt. Vernon at a mile at BEL earlier in the year. She seems to have tailed off in the last couple but to be fair they were on a good turf she doesn’t prefer. Could get a piece at a price, but that’s the best I can see.
• 3 Run to Mama – has done well with state-bred OC $40K but doesn’t seem fast enough to take the top spot in here.
• 1 Selenite – won the NY Stallion Series at SAR at nice odds. You’ll get those odds again today but I don’t think she is likely to finish in front. Another with back hole prospects at best.
• 4 Palace Dreams – SCR
• 5 Invading Humor – has a four race winning streak for Bruce Levine. I think the streak ends today, but her speed is still dangerous. Hot Joel Rosario rides.
• 1a Chrysolite – doesn’t appear to have the speed to contend in this field.
• 6 Strike Accord – second in the Hettinger to Invading Humor. She should be coming to the race in top form.  I like her to catch a minor piece.
• 7 One Time Baby – has been strong in OC $40K races but unfortunately this is not a $40K race.
• 8 Old Harbor – has run well at this level. I think she is better than 15-1 but she looks no better than a minor player to me.
• 10 Discreet Marq – the fastest, the classiest, the best.
• 11 Stock Fund – not a win type and definitely not a likely winner today.
• 12 Caribean Beat – AE gets in, but but shouldn’t have an impact on the outcome.

Race 10   The Hudson     4-7-10-5

• 1 Chapman – has some early foot, but hasn’t won since the AQU inner dirt. Not at all likely to win; a minor slice at best
• 2 West Hills Giant – has been competitive with these for a while, and wouldn’t be a huge surprise if he was in the exotics but I’m starting elsewhere.
• 3 Noble Cornerstone – has been popping up and down in class but won a nice open allowance last out. I’m not putting him in the top three but I thought about him for a while.
• 4 Weekend Hideaway – ran nicely in the Forego and before that won a couple of state bred affairs. Loves BEL, loves the distance, and has some consistent figures.
• 5 Big Business – has been competitive all year, and is a 30% winner lifetime. He belongs in this group but I’m leaning in other directions for the win.
• 6 Sandy’z Slew – I don’t understand the 30-1 ML; his last two were off the turf affairs and he actually won his last. I don’t think he is a world beater, but he is a hard trying horse that likes BEL.
• 7 Moonlight Song – early speed specialist seems to thrive on the front end and is the best speed in here. If he gets a sensible pace, he can be a factor.
• 8 John’s Island – doesn’t look good enough to win this one, but has a neat 4th place finish in the Amsterdam. Jimmy Jerkens has been ice cold at BEL but lately is showing signs of waking up.
• 9 Leila’s Jazz – A competitive horse and his last was impressive but he looks like another that is only likely to catch a minor piece.
• 10 Captain Serious – In seven starts he has shown a lot of talent although lately he seems to be a little heartless in the stretch. Still, I definitely think he he can be a threat here.
• 11 Crafty Dearmer – just not fast enough to beat these.

Race 11

• 5 Manoffire – Cuts back to the sprint distance and this is probably where he belongs. Steady works for his return. Lisa Lewis is 44% first time with a horse.
• 11 Spider Roll – closed nicely in his debut at Presque Isle and got a nice number for that race. Now in the Steve Klesaris barn and he is 26% with first timers in his care. Hasn’t been on the turf but his breeding is fair for turf sprints.
• 3 Runaway Posse – looked good first time on the turf. The cutback in distance should help. Improvement is expected here.
• 8 Awesome Lute – claimed in his first two starts and switches to the turf for new trainer Schosberg. Also adds Lasix. Working decently off the mini-vacation.