Six horses are scheduled to contest the 2014 renewal of the Mother Goose Stakes this Saturday at Belmont. The overwhelming and deserving favorite in this field of six is the Steve Asmussen trained Untapable, listed at 1-5 on the morning line. 1-5 translates into an 83% chance of winning. If you are intrigued enough by the other horses to take a stand against Untapable, you are assured of a decent return for an upset. The problem is, nobody seems to be in Untapable’s current league.

Untapable made an auspicious debut at Churchill Downs last June as the 2.40-1 second choice, comfortably winning a 5.5 furlong race. She wheeled back two and a half months later, taking the Grade 2 Pocahontas. She followed that with a disaster in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies, and finished 2013 with a rather dull effort in the Hollywood Starlet.

What a difference 2014 brought. Untapable has won three consecutive Graded stakes, the last win coming at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Oaks. Nobody has been closer than four and a half lengths at the wire. Untapable should be fully primed on Saturday. She is a versatile runner and has shown the ability to press or track and leave a field in her wake.

Are there any negatives? Not many. Rosie Napravnik, Untapable’s regular rider, is out with a shoulder injury and has been replaced by the very capable Johhny Velasquez. She has never raced on the Belmont surface, and it is occasionally the case that a horse will find the Big Sandy less to their liking.

So if you want to play the race, what do you do? There is no show betting, but I don’t think the bridge jumpers will have any hesitation about slamming Untapable in the place pool.  That leaves a few combination bets – the exacta, trifecta, pick-3 and early pick-4. In an article I wrote for Horseplayer Magazine, I mentioned that if you can turn a 1-5 shot into an 8-5 or higher shot by playing a cold exacta, or an even longer shot by playing a cold trifecta, it’s worth taking a plunge.

So who would you put on the bottom of an exacta or trifecta with Untapable? Let’s go through the other runners. House Rules needed four tries to break her maiden, but then finished second in a pair of Grade 2 races at Gulfstream, finishing ahead of other runners America and Stopchargingmaria in the process. However, she showed  very little in the Grade 1 Acorn at Belmont. Her closing style may work in her favor but given she’ll likely be bet a little, I’m going to look elsewhere.

Princess Violet is a lightly raced New York state-bred with three sprint races under her belt. She should bolt to the front, but otherwise I’m not really finding a reason to consider her in the back hole.

America is still eligible for a NW2 race and has been beaten by both Stopchargingmaria and House Rules. I can’t see why the tables might turn on Saturday.

Stopchargingmaria is a solid Grade 2 horse and her win in the Black-Eyed Susan showed a lot of growth. She raced as a two-year old at Belmont, finishing a respectable third in the Frizette, so I don’t think the track will be a problem. You can’t ignore the Pletcher-Castellano combination. They consistently hit at 30% or greater in stakes races. She seems fairly clear as the second best runner, but it’s hard to imagine more than a $4 exacta with Untapable on top. Still, it’s a long way better than 1-5.

The horse that intrigues me is Aqua Regia, and if Princess Violet wasn’t in the race I’d be inclined to really hit the Untapable-Aqua Regia exacta. She just won her NW1X race at Belmont, pressing from the second spot and finishing well. She has plenty of tactical speed, but doesn’t seem to be a “need to lead” type. If she doesn’t let Princess Violet burn her out early, she may have a couple of lengths on everyone but Untapable turning for home, and have enough heart to hang on to the place. She has the feel of one of those horses that still has a lot of room for improvement, and fits a pattern that has historically been successful at Belmont. Plus, she is likely to go off somewhere near her 20-1 morning line.

I don’t think there are a lot of decisions in here. If Untapable runs her race, everyone else is competing for second, and the Untapable-Stopchargingmaria exacta will probably pay a miniscule price. Unless something intervenes, I’m inclined to try to make money by betting a straight Untapable-Aqua Regia exacta.

I’ll blog tomorrow about the pick-3 and pick-4 prospects.