Del Mar Breeder’s Cup 2017 Saturday

Race 4 Juvenile Fillies

  • 7  Moonshine Memories. Undefeated filly meets her toughest field by far. If she runs back to any of her races she looks solid.
  • 13  Separationofpowers 
  • 11  Wonder Gadot
  • Backhole horses: 1 Heavenly Love, 3 Princess Warrior, and 8 Piedi Bianchi

Race 5 Turf Sprint

  • 10 Hogy is a veteran sprinter. Since he is a strong closer, the post position is of little concern. It looks to me like he has enough talent and speed to challenge for the win.
  • 1 Disco Partner has had an exceptional year, with four wins in five races. May not be fast enough to get the right position in such a short race.
  • 3 Lady Aurelia ran a very good race in the Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes. She had a clear lead in that no-turn race and lost by the slimmest of margins. She’s proven against males, and it looks like five furlongs a good distance for her.
  • 6  Marsha only has two wins this year, one the aforementioned Coolmore Nunthorpe, but has consistently been in the top three finishers. Possible.

Race 6 Filly and Mare Sprint

  • This is a very competitive race with at least seven horses generating interest. I’m leaning toward 9 Finley’sluckycharm. She’s been first or second in all but one race.  She’s shown great speed and has a win in two tries at the distance. Strong possibilities.
  • 11 Unique Bella is the likely favorite and would be no surprise in the win slot. However, the 9/5 odds are making me look elsewhere for a win bet.
  • 8 Constellation has had four seconds in four races this year. That was enough to move the horse from Hollendorfer to Baffert. I’m going to suggest that move is a enough to make the horse a major contender.
  • 7  By the Moon
  • Backhole horses: 1 Carina Mia, 10 Highway Star, and 12 Sky Diamonds

Race 7 Filly and Mare Turf

  • 9 Lady Eli is my sentimental favorite. She’s not as good as she was before she contracted laminitis but I think she’s come back like a champion would. At her best she is untouchable.
  • 6 Cambodia has not won any Grade 1 events but has a good record, good pace numbers and two wins in two races at Del Mar.
  • 1 War Flag is 9 for 9 in the money. The Del Mar Turf with it’s short stretch will be a test for her.
  • Backhole horses: 14 Rhododendron, 4 Zipessa, 7 Dacita, 12 Avenge

Race 8 Sprint

  • The strategy is to figure out if there is any horse that can beat 2 Defrong. While Defrong hasn’t lost a race since 2015 (throw out the race where he lost his jockey) and nobody has been very close. The only horse that I thought could give him trouble was 7 Takaful. He’s got plenty of speed and should be the one to catch.
  • 8 Roy H is second choice on the Morning Line, a bit of a surprise to me. Still, he’s had success in graded races and his race in the True North might have beat all of these.
  • 10 Imperial Hint is 4 for 4 this year, but I don’t think he’s in quite the same class as the first two, but he’s shown plenty of talent.
  • Backhole horses: 3 American Pastime, 8 Ransom the Moon.

Race 9 Turf Mile

  • As the turf races get longer the Euros look better. In the turf mile 10 Ribchester looks best. He’s got multiple G1 wins and excellent pace figures.
  • 5 World Approval is 2 for 2 since moving to the mile distance. That’s enough to put him in the exacta.
  • 2 Heart to Heart has the top pace figure and would be no surprise.
  • Backhole horses: 1 Midnight Storm, 8 Suedois, 12 Orly Poly, 13 Blackjackcat

Race 10 Juvenile

  • 11 Bolt d’Oro. Look at his past performance. ’nuff said.
  • 2 Solomini. Baffert’s contribution. If not for Bolt d’Oro he might be undefeated.
  • 3 Firenze Fire should enjoy the stretch out.
  • 5 Free Drop Billy
  • Backhole horses: 9 Hazit

Race 11 Turf

  • Once again I am looking at the Euros first. 5 Ulysses ran well in the Arc de Triomphe and hasn’t run out of the money this year.
  • 14 Oscar Performance is my long shot pick here. Solid American horse.
  • 12 Beach Patrol has won over a million dollars this year and has to be respected.
  • Backhole horses: 1 Talismatic, 3 Highland Reel, 8 Bigger Picture

Race 12 Classic

  • 10 Pavel. Watch the video of his last race. He gave 100% to stay near one of the best closers, Keen Ice and was making up ground on the winner Diversify. If anyone can pull off the big upset it’s Doug O’Neill.
  • 5 Gun Runner has simply run the best pace figure of any horse in the 2017 BC. Can’t ignore that number.
  • 8 West Coast is this year’s Arrogate. He should be at the top of his game and is every bit as tough as Arrogate.
  • 1 Arrogate hasn’t looked nearly as spectacular as he did through the Dubai World Cup, but he’s still Arrogate and he’s still dangerous.
  • Backhole horses: 11 Collected