Belmont October 30

I’ve got to point out that in the 10th race yesterday I put Oh So Sinister on top. He went off at an astonishing 80-1 and was a clear second, only a length behind the winner, that also happened to be the favorite. Now while the people who follow me know I am not generally disposed to bet to place, but when you have a horse you legitimately think can vie for the win, you better have place money if he finishes second. In this case you would have been rewarded with a $44.20 place mutuel. Since the winner and the third place horse were also among my top picks, with a little guts you could have also had the exacta ($410) and the trifecta ($4,369). Regardless of who you follow, having an 80-1 shot on top, and then watching the horse just miss is pretty good handicapping.

Race 1

  • 3  Two Weeks Off

  • 6  Steve’s Image

  • 1 Kenyan

  • Secondary (2, 4)

  • No great insight in this race. TWO WEEKS OFF should go favorite, but he doesn’t look unbeatable. Best in a field that brims with mediocrity. FORMAL SUMMATION will get his share of action, but I’m even less sold on his prospects.

Race 2

  • 9  Fear

  • 10  Pine Ridge Forest

  • 6  Cuckoo’s Saloon

  • Secondary (1)

  • FEAR is listed at 8-1 on the ML. He’s had a productive year and seems to have taken to the BEL turf. At the odds, he’s the one that holds my interest.

Race 3

  • 6  Ornato

  • 3  Buckwellspent

  • 9  Summer Bourbon

  • Secondary (4)

  • Not many contenders stick out in this one. ORNATO has only one start, but it was a troubled beginning and he did run evenly around the track. Blinkers off today and maybe a change of fortune.

Race 4

  • (13  Defiant Honor – Top choice if he draws in)

  • 1  Bogulator

  • 11  Untouch

  • 3  Fear No Evil

  • Secondary (4, 7)

Race 5

  • 6  Stonetastic

  • 1  Momameamaria

  • 9  Kelsocait

  • Secondary (5, 8)

  • The top two voices look best in this one, but KELSOCAIT is a three year old with three wins in her first six starts all at BEL. Despite this being her first stakes, she has the numbers to be competitive. Improving three year olds late in the year are always worth watching, and if she runs her best she could surprise the field.

Race 6

  • 1/1A  Holiday Stone/High Promise

  • 7  Cavil

  • 9 Chenal

  • Secondary (5, 6)

Race 7

  • (13  Summer Breezing is a contender if he draws in)

  • 2  Wicked Freud

  • 6  Final Chapter

  • 7  Latigo Trail

  • Secondary (3, 4, 11, 12)

  • This is a very competitive race as evidenced by the number of contenders. If SUMMER BREEZING draws in, he has to be given consideration. Otherwise, this race is ripe for a juicy payoff.

Race 8

  • 5  Chubby Star

  • 12  Create a Dream

  • 4  Beat the Benchmark

  • 3  Warrior Hall

  • Secondary (2, 8)

  • This is another competitive race, but I think CHUBBY STAR is one to watch closely. The Miss Grillo is THE turf stakes at BEL for juvenile fillies prepping for the Breeder’s Cup. She ran well at LRL, but was checked at the start after stumbling in the Miss Grillo, Still, she showed a little interest and is likely to be ignored in the betting. At 12-1 ML she captures my interest.

Race 9

  • 9  Celtic Serenade

  • 1  Brandi’s Diva

  • 10  Persky’s Spirit

  • Secondary (6, 11)

  • While BEA BEA is listed at 2-1, I think she’s had plenty of chances and is a horrible bet at the odds. On the other hand CELTIC SERENADE has only two lifetime starts (technically), one on the turf and that represented an improvement for her. She obviously needed her last and should jump forward with the race under her belt. Should go off at good odds.