Belmont October 15

Race 1

  • 2  Outrun

  • 6  You’re to Blame

  • 1  Newman

  • Secondary (4)

  • NEWMAN is likely to go favorite off the strength of his race against PRACTICAL JOKER, but I’m going to look for a little more value and I would say that is OUTRUN. This second time starter for Todd Pletcher adds blinkers in an effort to focus his speed. Look at the running line where he was shuffled well back in the stretch, losing all chance, but rallying to only lose by 2 1/2 and galloping out strongly. He should be in a much better spot today. He should easily take to the mile distance.

Race 2

  • 8  Gran the Man

  • 1/1A  Liberal Spin/Wireless Future

  • 10  Creaky Circuit

  • Secondary (3, 8)

Race 3

  • 2  Theory

  • 1  Moves Like Ali

  • 4  Reckling

Race 4

  • 6  Southern Gentleman

  • 12  Irish Filibuster

  • 8  Gait to Heaven

  • Secondary (1, 10, 11)

  • This is a fairly wide open race. While IRISH FILIBUSTER has the top figures and is dropping from MSW he’s been off since February, which makes him vulnerable. SOUTHERN GENTLEMAN is the interesting horse in this race for me. While he’s been knocking around with MCL for a while, he’s only run two turf races (his last two races) and they were his best two races. In his last he showed good speed despite a troubled start and finished with a lifetime top. That figure makes him competitive with others and at 20-1 odds he could be huge value.

Race 5

  • 10  Mr Curiosity

  • 5  Made of Steel

  • 1  Peculiar Sensation

  • Secondary (2, 8)

Race 6

  • 5  Hothersal

  • 6  Tombelaine

  • 4  Dowse’s Beach

  • 2  Plainview

  • Secondary (1, 7, 10)

  • Lots of competitors in this race, but I like the top two quite a bit. HOTHERSAL looks fairly obvious in here, coming off a series of Graded races. Jason Servis has been having a good BEL meet. The potential value horse is Chad Brown’s TOMBELAINE. In Ireland he was second in two Group races, won a minor stakes, and ran well in the Irish 2,000 Guineas. In his debut race in the states he was pinched back at the start and never really got into the race. Chad Brown is 25% off the long layoff, Castellano takes the mount, and I think we’ll see an improved run today.

Race 7

  • 6  Stonecoldfox

  • 4  Easy Way Out

  • 7  The Eagle is Gone

  • Secondary (1, 3)

Race 8

  • 4  Ancient Secret

  • 12  She Doesn’t Mind

  • 2  Believe in Bertie

  • Secondary (3, 7, 8, 9, 11)

  • I could have made a case for a number of horses in this race. I went with the solid choice, ANCIENT SECRET, winer of the G2 Lake George, and her stablemate SHE DOESN’T MIND, an improving runner for Chad Brown. The interesting horse is BELIEVE IN BERTIE who comes off a strong second place finish at Indiana Grand. Admittedly she is in with a tougher group today, but she had the best pace figure off her last and runs a perfect distance for her speedy running style. Trainer Brad Cox is an amazing 10 of 11 in the money at this BEL meet. At 10-1 morning line she could lead to a very lucrative collection.

Race 9

  • 6  Space Oddity

  • 7  Late Night Mark

  • 1 Cotton Town

  • Secondary (4)