This last weekend has a number of very competitive races, and I’ll be walking to the windows very carefully in most of the races.

You may have noticed a slight change in the format of the selections. I’m still giving out the top three picks, but I have added secondary picks. This is mainly to give people interested in the verticals some options in the back holes. It also gives people looking to go deep in the horizontals some other considerations.

Race 1.  E Warfare ran well on a sloppy SAR track a month ago, and came back in a turf sprint where she didn’t break sharply but still showed some interest. Puts blinkers on today and gets a new rider in Irad Ortiz. Should be right on the lead and with a good break may be hard to catch. Sea Pebble has three seconds in a row with one of them her only start on the turf. Hard trying horse should be close up early. Uptown Liza ran a new top last out and seems to have taken well to the turf.  Primary 3-9-11  Secondary (7, 10)

Race 2.  This is a really competitive field. Gentrify didn’t appear to care for the turf last out but prior to that he was competitive with horses slightly below this group. Low key trainer is a concern, but the 6-1 odds create some interest. Money Changer finished second at this level last out and has enough speed to get a decent spot on the inside. Pletcher won’t give up the training title without a fight. Roll Tide Roll jumps up off a win for $25K. Servis is 23% second off the claim. Primary 3-1-8  Secondary (5, 6, 7, 9)

Race 3.  Apartfromthecrowd goes for Brown/Castellano and while Gio Ponti progeny have not shown the same ability their sire showed on the turf, the trainer/jockey combo is high percentage with first timers on the turf. Frostmourne is a Speightstown and his progeny are very good in their maiden starts.  He’s Cheeky goes first time for RuRod who is 20% with debut horses.  Primary 3-5-6  Secondary (7)

Race 4.  Tapwrit was sold for $1.2 million as a yearling and has solid connections in his corner. Have to assume he’s in to run. Westwood has a good workout pattern going into this one. Bernardini progeny are usually excellent at the sprint distances. South Sea goes second time for Bill Mott. Mott is not known for his skill with first time starters, but this one ran pretty well.  Primary 3-9-4  Secondary (2, 7, 8) 

Race 5.  This is looking like an “all” race unless Camelot Kitten is as good as the ML odds look. He does seem to be the class of the race with pretty much nothing but graded races in his past performances. Have to give him top billing, but he’s not miles ahead of the others in here. Strike MIdnight just missed to the top choice in the Hall of Fame. Castellano goes elsewhere today so Manny Franco picks up the mount. Isotherm was racing with the best juveniles last year and gets a good jockey switch to Johnny V today.  Primary 2-4-6  Secondary (1, 3, 5)

Race 6.  Changewilldoyagood ran a lifetime top last out in a race with Copingaway who is running in the Saranac, the previous race. Depending on how that one runs you may want to upgrade or downgrade the choice here. Request generally runs longer distances, but has had success at today’s trip. Third start off the layoff today. Nonna’s Boy looks like the speed of the field but he did look good in the Oceanport and the first two in that race were legitimate stakes runners. I like the speed angle.  Primary 3-8-10  Secondary (6)

Race 7.  Kahramani had trouble at the break last out but still showed some interest. Best figure of the horses that have raced. Outrun goes first time for Pletcher/Velasquez and given Johnny V opts for this one he may be the they one TAP thinks might have a brighter future. Casses Story has looked good in his previous starts, but he needs to make it home first soon. Primary 1-3-8  Secondary (4) 

Race 8.  Another race full of contenders. New York Chrome is riding a three race win streak and is one of a number of horses with competitive numbers. Beeks looks like he should be dueling up front and with some improvement he’s in the mix at good odds. Neolithic came off an eight month vacation to run a good second and he certainly needed the race. His figure really improved from last year and that may propel him to the top of this field. Primary 9-4-10  Secondary (1, 8, 12, 13)

Race 9.  The Spinaway come up with a competitive field headed by the Pletcher/Velasquez trainee Cherry Lodge. She ran a big number first time out and Johnny V opted to ride her instead of Sweet Loretta. Runway Doll won by a city block in the slop last out but she is a legitimate contender here. Sweet Loretta, the other Pletcher runner has a win in the Schuylerville and given she comes from slightly off the pace, the stretch out should be in her favor.  Primary 5-3-1  Secondary (6)

Race 10.  Frosted is in an amazing funk this summer and there is no reason to believe he is coming to the end of the run. Trying to beat him may be futile, but if he happens to falter, the horizontals will be big overpays. Primary 3  Secondary (1, 4, 6, 9)

Race 11.  Guapaza is on a two race win streak and recently won the Waya. She’ll be the favorite, but is a must use in the horizontals. Photo Call had the lead in the Waya before faltering, but she’s been reliable in these races. At 10-1 ML she’s in the mix for me. Itsonlyactingdad comes off a win in the G3 Matchmaker and always seems to be in the mix at the end.  Primary 3-2-8  Secondary (1, 6, 10)

Race 12.  Really wide open affair as you can tell from the ML odds line. I’m going away from the ML favorite with Hockey School, Blackout, and Gio’s Calling.  Primary 2-9-10  Secondary (1, 3, 4, 5)