Selections

Saratoga July 30

Race 1

  • 6  Impressive Edge  3-1

  • 3  El Talento  7/2

  • 8  Ancient Warfare  4-1

Impressive Edge is the interesting horse here. He went off as the odds on choice last out on a sloppy CD track and flopped, although he was wide most of the way.  His breeding seems a little better than average for the turf and he is well bred for the distance. Asmussen is a solid 25% with 2nd time maidens. Deserves a second chance to show that he is worth $400K. El Talento goes for the always dangerous Pletcher/Velasquez combo. Pletcher isn’t nearly as proficient first time on the turf, but the horse is well bred for the turf and the distance. Ancient Warfare goes for the good trainer Mark Casse who is 14% with his debut runners. Excellent workout pattern.

Race 2

  • 1A  Heaven’s Runaway  2-1

  • 5  Cerro  5/2

  • 6  Sam Sparkle 4-1

The entry had two strong horses entered, and while Heaven’s Runawaylooked more likely on the turf, he does have some successful dirt starts and I trust that DJ left the more likely winner in the race. Cerro scratched Thursday for this spot. In his last he was taken by high percentage trainer Jorge Navarro and is actually dropped for this run. Very dangerous. Sam Sparkle hasn’t won in a while but is usually somewhere close at the finish.

Race 3

  • 1   Kahramani  2-1

  • 6  Reckling  3-1

  • 3 Tale of Silence  4-1

Kahramani fits Pletcher’s strength, a maiden 2-YO sprint. Nice steady workout pattern with no gaps since May. Reckling went for nearly 10 times his stud fee. Ricardo Santana has been riding very well at the meet. Tale of Silence is well bred for this sprint and Barklay Tagg is a sneaky 18% with first timers.

Race 4

  • 2  Maniacal

  • 5  It’s All Relevant

  • 6  Uncle Vinny

Maniacal’s last got a monster number and he’s had an impressive bullet work since then. He’s got most of the early foot and although this is his first try with stakes runners he has a tremendous upside. It’s All Relevant was well enough thought of to start in the G2 Risen Star, and the switch to Johnny V should be very positive, especially considering he was aboard for his maiden victory. Uncle Vinny takes the blinkers off today. Has a win (via DQ) and a third in two graded stakes at SAR. Could be a surprise at a price.

Race 5

  • 4  Deeply Undervalued

  • 6  Uncle Gio

  • 7  Caldera

Deeply Undervalued has a fairly deep closing style, but Chad Brown has him headed in the right direction and Irad Ortiz can’t hurt. A second at the distance. Uncle Gio has been in the vicinity in his last two, and is going second off a three month layoff. He didn’t move up much in the stretch last out, but he didn’t fade either. I like his chances at 10-1 ML. Caldera has a few more starts than I normally like to see in a MSW, but he seems a good prospect to hit the board.

Race 6

  • 8  Esther the Queen  3-1

  • 3  Somerset Sandy  7/2

  • 1  Empress Jingu  4-1

Esther the Queen puts the blinkers back on after a race without them and drops back a half furlong. Hasn’t run badly at Saratoga in the past and has good tactical speed. Somerset Sandy was somewhat up against it last out and nearly won her in her debut race on this course last year. I like the potential at the odds. Empress Jingu looked good in her first with winners. Doesn’t have a turf start, but should be a part of the pace picture. Downside – regular pilot Castellano goes to the 10

Race 7

  • 2  Flintshire  3/5

  • 5  Grand Tito  5-1

  • 4  Can’thelpbelieving  8-1

Flintshire is by far the best horse in the race. Period. It’s hard to imagine something that would keep him from winning.

Race 8

  • 1  Captain Moss  7/2

  • 5  Ray’s the Bar  4-1

  • 7  Hunter O’Riley 5-1

I’m not exactly sure why Captain Moss is 10-1 ML . His figures are competitive, and while he hasn’t yet negotiated the distance, it looks like the farther he goes the better he’ll like it. Plus he looks like the lone front, which can be a big advantage in a longer race. Ray’s the Bar is the Chad Brown trainee and should negotiate the distance. His last two races are better than looked. Hunter O’Riley comes out of the same race as the second choice. He seems to be better on the turf than the dirt and has the look of a horse than can run all day.

Race 9

  • 1  Anchor Down  5/2

  • 3  Delta Bluesman  3-1

  • 5  Holy Boss  4-1

Anchor Down comes out of the Met Mile where no horse was going to beat Frosted. Before that he won the G2 Westchester and has a win and a third at the sprint distance. Delta Bluesman comes out of a G2 sprint at GP and has a four race win streak going for high percentage trainer Jorge Navarro. Big ask for him today, but he’s at the top of his game. Holy Boss ran well in the G2 True North, and puts the blinkers on today.

Race 10

  • 4  Destin  2-1

  • 5  Governor Malibu  5/2

  • 1  Creator  3-1

In the Jim Dandy I like Destin to get his revenge against Creator.  I’m hoping Castellano doesn’t engage in a blow your brains out duel with Laoban, grabs the lead turning for home and keeps the closer’s safe. Creator may benefit if there is a wild pace duel. Governor Malibu is certainly a quality horse, although he might be a hair behind Destin.

Race 11

  • 10  Double Dose  3-1

  • 2  Antebellum  4-1

  • 3  Rain in Spain  5-1

Double Dose has a lot of work to do from the outside post. He stretches out today and adds blinkers. He seems to have benefitted from the move to MCL. Antebellum has been knocking at this level a while and looks to have reasonable prospects. Rain in Spain actually won at this level but was DQ’d. He came back and had a troubled start, compromising his chances. He’s better than 20-1.