Selections

Saratoga August 7 – Late Pick-4

It’s another interesting  all turf late pick-4 but with no marathon race. Nothing is more irritating than handicapping a race and realizing five minutes before post time you totally missed a contender. We’ll try not to miss  anything today.

RACE 7

  • 6 Fire Ship is a 10-start maiden with a start over the Saratoga turf. Her last was a troubled trip, but her penultimate start makes her competitive.
  • 7 Tenacious Indeed is another with a start over the track. With only three starts she is eligible to improve, although her best to this point looks a little too slow. She adds blinkers and we’ll see if that adds focus. By way of default, she inherits the top choice after the scratch of the 4.
  • 9 Make Your Point is well on the way to professional maidenhood.  She is one of the horses coming out of the July 21 race won by Under Scrutiny. She tracked all the way around and there is every reason to see the same today.
  • 10 Kevin’s Steel on the other hand is about fully established in the professional maiden ranks. She could merry-go-round her way to another in the money finish, but she’s more likely to be 0 for 14 at the end of the race.

RACE 8

  • 3 Santa Elf has two wins in a row on the dirt, and only one turf start. Bruce Brown claimed him last out and Brown has not been strong off the claim. He’s not without a chance, but not the top choice.
  • 4 Defiant exploded on the Monmouth turf last out but generally conditioned claimers making a jump up to NW1X are not reliable. He’s got plenty of speed and that is dangerous.
  • 5 Heart Doctor will get a lot of action and is hard working, but he is another that can’t seem to make the jump to NW1X. I’m making him a bet against.
  • 6 Golden Story is another speedy sort. He only has 5 starts and is eligible to improve, but I’d be more excited if his last was at this level instead of OC25K.
  • 7 Otokogi is making his turf debut off a nice run at Keeneland last April. If he wasn’t trained by Graham Motion and ridden by Johnny V I doubt I’d give him a second look, but Motion has been on fire.
  • 8 Indian Rain Dance is the top choice. He ran a bang-up race first on the turf and if he repeats it he gets the win.

RACE 9

  • 1 Ghurair is another horse coming out of the United Nations. He’s obviously a step below graded stakes, but fits well at this level. Definite contender
  • 3 Red Rifle is a speedy sort and lately the turf has been playing to closers. If the race was a mile I’d be far more excited since he seems to be far and away the best speed. He has great figures an is at the right class level. Pletcher and Velasquez make him necessary to consider.
  • 5 Lochte will be the top pick. He is a horse that likes winning and has actually won a Grade 1. He has a third on the Saratoga turf. His low profile connections will keep him from getting bet heavily.
  • 7 Tetradrachm hasn’t been this low in a while. He’s been running nothing but graded stakes, and that seems to have kept him from the winner’s circle. I think this is a shrewd drop. He has a win on the SAR lawn. My close second choice.
  • 9 Reflecting is another that has been suffering at higher classes. He seems to prefer going longer so he may be a few strides late, especially given there is not much speed to run at. He has taken the lead in longer races but he is not going to outgun Red Rifle. His figures say competitive.

RACE 10

  • 3 Jennys Creek. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. 0 for 17 maidens are more likely to be 0 for 18 than 1 for 18. I don’t care how bad the field looks. She is only a potential in the money horse for me.
  • 5 Barrier to Entry is the top choice. She was getting killed on the dirt, switched to the turf and took the lead, finishing only 6.5 lengths behind. She looks a lot like a Condition Sign horse and her last race figure is plenty competitive with these.
  • 9 Given Fire was right there in her last at the 6F call. She’s been off since September but has been working steadily for this year’s debut. I’d like her a lot more if she had a short speed workout, but if Maggie says she looks fabulous, she’s worth a bet.
  • 10 Gu Gu Beans owes me money. I bet her very heavily last time out at 7-1. Her neck defeat cost me the pick-4 as well. But, to be a successful horseplayer you can’t take these things personally. She gets another chance today.
  • 11 Home to Carrowkeel had a miserable trip the last time but managed to close a lot of lengths in the stretch. She could be the best in here. It doesn’t hurt that the red hot Michelle Nevin trains. No surprise if she improves substantially.